Seeking Alpha

Brennan Basnicki's  Instablog

Brennan Basnicki
442 Followers
3 Following
Send Message
Proprietary Trader at DV Trading, level 3 CFA and level 3 CMT candidate, MSc Investment Analysis with distinction, and B.A. politcs. Most importantly, I am a student of the markets, and far from considering myself an expert. Having began trading in 2008 I am very critical of the investment... More
My company:
DV Trading
My blog:
Canadian Coalition Against Terror
  • First Solar (FSLR) Ready To Pop! 3 comments
    Nov 27, 2012 8:14 AM | about stocks: FSLR

    I've had my eye on First Solar (FSLR) for a while, and have established a small long position. In a time when there's uncertainty about the direction of broader markets, plays like these that have little correlation to the various indices can be very attractive.

    I don't know anything about the fundamentals, but the technicals look great short term and long term. For a thorough fundamental overview, see this recent article by Edward Schneider.

    (click to enlarge)

    Note the following:

    • The downwards trend has been broken.
    • The breakout of the downwards trend was on high volume
    • Price is now in an uptrend sine June
    • Price has consolidated with higher lows and considerable resistance at $25.50

    A look at a shorter-term chart shows more bullish conviction

    (click to enlarge)

    • Price above 20, 55, and 200 day SMA's, with 20 and 55 day SMAs rising
    • OBV confirms FSLR is likely in an accumulation phase and confirms upwards bias
    • RSI has remained above 40 since the prior downtrend was broken, again confirming bullish price action
    • Declining volume throughout last four months typical of many consolidation periods
    • Breakout of similar pattern was seen in August

    Note this stock is extremely volatile, and one should manage their position size accordingly. A conservative stop could be placed at a closing prince under $22, and a longer-term / more aggressive position stop could be placed at a closing price below $18

    Disclosure: I am long FSLR.

    Themes: Technology, Solar, Energy Stocks: FSLR
Back To Brennan Basnicki's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

This post has 3 comments:

Track new comments on this article
  •  
    Very Nice Brennan!
    Been watching it for a while also ;)
    Here is my chart view: http://scharts.co/Q1M1s3
    27 Nov 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Can't say today's $FSLR price action was a surprise, but plenty more to come...!
    27 Nov 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Further technicals available at http://bit.ly/SKjwMG
    4 Dec 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • Please note I use StockTwits for stock talk, trade ideas, and short term analysis, but post longer thoughts/articles here on SA
    Apr 28, 2013
  • Bull Flag Mania in Energy ($XLE): $SLB $TLM $APA $OXY $CVX
    Feb 9, 2013
  • When I start logging multiple red days I know I'm overtrading... Time to refocus
    Feb 7, 2013
More »

Latest Comments


Most Commented
Posts by Themes
Coal, commodities, Copper, earnings, Energy, Equity , gold-and-precious-metals, Long, long-ideas, market-outlook, Metals, Precious Metals, short, Short ideas, Short Ideas, short-ideas, Social Media, Solar, Tech, Technology
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.