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Jim Van Meerten
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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • Are projections about the solar induatry too bright? 1 comment
    Jan 20, 2011 1:50 PM | about stocks: JKS, SOL, LDK, TSL

     Am I the only one who is having butterflies about the solar industry?  Is there a market for this renewable energy resource or is it all just smoke and mirrors? Using Barchart I found 4 solar stocks that on average are up over 20% in the last month alone.  The brokerages have fantastic projections, there is very high investor sentiment but my intuition is holding me back from making a recommendation.  Here's what others think, let me hear your opinions.

    JKS - Jinkosolar -- a solar product manufacturer with operations based in Jiangxi Province and Zhejiang Province in China. JinkoSolar has built a vertically integrated solar product value chain from recovered silicon materials to solar modules. JinkoSolar's principal products are silicon wafers, solar cells and solar modules which are all along the photovoltaic value chain, with a global network spanning across Europe, North America and Asia.

    • Barchart Trend Spotter (tm) technical buy signal
    • 9 new highs and up 29.13% in the last month
    • Relative Strength Index 64.33% and rising
    • Trades around 28.16 with a 50 day moving average of 24.63
    • Wall Street brokerages have 4 buy, 1 hold and 2 under perform recommendations
    • Revenue projected to increase 177.40% this year and 43.10% next year
    • EPS estimated to increase 1,302.30 this year and increase annually 15.00% for at least 5 years
    • Motley Fool CAPS members vote 75 to 22 and All Stars vote 14 to 8 that the stock will beat the market
    SOL - Rensola --   RENESOLA and its subsidiaries are engaged in manufacturing solar wafers in the People's Republic of China. The company's solar wafers are sold to both Chinese and international photovoltaic cell and module manufacturers. The company's customers include some of the leading manufacturers of solar cells and modules, such as JA Solar Co., Ltd., Motech Industries Inc., Solarfun Power Holding Ltd., Suntech Power Co. Ltd. and Topco Technologies Corp.
    • Barchart Trend Spotter (tm) technical buy signal
    • 8 new highs and up 23.40% in the last month
    • Relative Strength Index 55.18%
    • Trades around 10.23 with a 50 day moving average of 9.42
    • Wall Street brokerages have 8 buy and 2 hold recommendations published
    • Revenue projected to increase 131.50% this year, 16.80% next year
    • EPS estimated to increase 324.40% this year, 11.90% next year and 11.67% annually for at least 5 years
    • Motley Fool CAPS members vote 1,103 to 29 and the All Stars vote 297 to 4 that the stock will beat the market
    LDK - LDK Solar -- a manufacturer of multicrystalline solar wafers, which are the principal raw material used to produce solar cells. LDK sells multicrystalline wafers globally to manufacturers of photovoltaic products, including solar cells and solar modules. In addition, the company provides wafer processing services to monocrystalline and multicrystalline solar cell and module manufacturers. LDK's headquarters and manufacturing facilities are located in Hi-Tech Industrial Park, Xinyu City, Jiangxi province in the People's Republic of China. The company's office in the United States is located in Sunnyvale, California.
    • 88% Barchart technical buy signal
    • 5 new highs and up 21.09% in the last month
    • Relative Strength Index 62.40% and rising
    • Trades around 12.72 with a 50 dy moving average of 11.11
    • Wall Street brokerages have published 10 buy, 6 hold and 5 under perform recommendations
    • Revenue projected to increase 111.60% this year and 27.60% next year
    • EPS estimated to increase by 188.10% this year, 19.90% next year and 23.35% annually for the next 5 years
    • Investor sentiment on Motley Fool is high with the CAPS members voting 1,372 to 94 and the All Stars 320 to 33 that the stock will bet the market
    TSL - Trina Solar --  currently one of the few private manufactures who has developed a vertically integrated business model from the production of monocrystalline ingots, wafers and cells to the assembly of high quality modules.They are led by an international management team from over 6 different countries with deep solar private industry experience.They has reached long term partnerships with leading technology suppliers in Switzerland, Italy and Germany, which provide the latest technology for Their production facilities in China. These partnerships are another quality guarantee for Their end customers and enable Them to work jointly towards a brighter future.
    • 80% Barchart short term technical buy signal
    • 13 new highs and up 18.66% in the last month
    • Relative Strength Index 65.16% and rising
    • Trades around 27.37 with a 50 day average of 24.35
    • Wall Street brokerages have published 25 buy, 3 hold and 2 under perform recommendations
    • Revenue projected to increase by 104.10% this year and 18.10% next year
    • EPS estimated to increase 100.00% this year, 8.00% next year and 18.98% annually for the next 5 years
    • Investor sentiment on Motley Fool high with the CAPS members voting 1,034 to 186 and the All Stars 267 to 64 that the stock will beat the market.
    As I write this post this song keeps ringing in my head:
     
    Everybody's wrong everybody's right 
    Someone must be wrong when someone else is right 
    Everybody's wrong everybody's right 
    You tell me that I'm wrong 
    Then you tell me that I'm right 
     
    Are too many people expecting too much from the solar industry?  Is the industry already over valued?  Should I get on board or hop off?    IS everybody wrong or is everybody right?
     
    Comments please!!!!
    Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.
     
    Stocks: JKS, SOL, LDK, TSL
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  • solar9
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    new horizons....these stocks are volatile but trending right. Provided China doesn't have to keep reining in and tightening screws on inflation, could at least be a strong first half this year as companies scramble to get projects in the ground before decline in subsidies. But even with subsidies subsiding (nice), Solar has proven that technologoically it's just to viable to throw the baby out with the bath water. It will compete sooner or later and the whole world is bearing witness.

     

    The combination of over-supply, and decling prices is going to make for some stiff competition.....still I think the stocks you've covered are tracking right. You just have to hang in on the days when they're up 8% and then back down 5-6%.....over the long haul, solar companies that stay competitive are going to profit handsomely and so too their investors.

     

    Long: SOL, JASO.
    20 Jan 2011, 08:44 PM Reply Like
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