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Jim Van Meerten
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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and attended... More
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  • Barchart Morning Call / 0 comments
    May 15, 2013 1:38 PM | about stocks: NBL, GOOG, DFS, DE, NOC, PII, SWY, P, A, AINV, M, CSC, PPL, STT, XEL, HAL

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Wednesday, May 15th, 2013>>View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 -0.11%) this morning are down -0.05% while European stocks are up +0.39% at a 1-3/4 year high after BOE Governor King predicted that a recovery for the UK economy was "in sight." European stocks shook off weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP reports from Germany and the Eurozone. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan up +2.29%, Hong Kong +0.50%, China +0.55%, Taiwan +0.81%, Australia -0.56%, Singapore +0.26%, South Korea +0.12%, India +2.49%. Commodity prices are weaker as the dollar strengthens. June WTI crude oil (CLM13 -1.31%) is down -0.82%. June gasoline (RBM13 -0.16%) is up +0.09%, June natural gas (NGM13 +0.22%) is up +0.45%, June gold (GCM13 -1.12%)is down -1.10%, and July copper (HGN13 -1.48%) is down -1.09%. Agriculture prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00+0.45%) is up +0.45% at a 9-1/2 month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.48% at a 1-1/4 month low after Eurozone Q1 GDP trailed estimates. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +9.26% at a 4-1/2 year high. June 10-year T-note futures prices (ZNM13 -0.06%) are down -4 ticks.
    Eurozone Q1 GDP fell -0/2% q/q and -1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.1% q/q and -0.9% y/y, as the recession extends to a record six quarters in the Eurozone.
    German Q1 GDP rose +0.1% q/q and fell -0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% q/q and +0.2% y/y.
    BOE Governor King declared that a UK recovery is now "in sight" after the BOE raised its Q2 GDP estimate to +0.5% from +0.3%, although he said "inflation was likely to remain above the central bank's 2% target for much of the next 2 years, although the risks around the target were broadly balanced in the latter part of the forecast period."
    UK Mar ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped -0.1 to 7.8% in the three months through Mar, better than expectations of unchanged at 7.9%.
    UK Mar avg weekly earnings rose +0.4% 3-mo/year-over-year, weaker than expectations of +0.7% 3-mo/year-over-year, while Mar avg weekly earnings ex bonus roe +0.8% 3-mo/year-over-year, right on expectations.
    UK Apr jobless claims fell -7,300, more than expectations of -3,000, while the Apr claimant count rate unexpectedly dipped to a 2-year low of 4.5%, weaker than expectations of unchanged at 4.6%.
    Japan Apr consumer confidence unexpectedly slipped -0.3 to 44.5, weaker than expectations of a +0.7 increase to 45.5.
    Japan's Mar tertiary industry index fell -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.7% m/m.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
    Today's April PPI report is expected to show a -0.6% m/m decline, matching the -0.6% m/m decline seen in March. Today's April industrial production report is expected to be weak at -0.1% m/m, losing a little ground after the +0.4% increase seen in March and the +1.1% increase seen in February. Looking ahead to the May manufacturing data, today's May Empire manufacturing index is expected to show a 1 point increase to 4.0, stabilizing after the -6.2 point drop to 3.1 seen in April. Today's May NAHB housing market index is expected to show a +1 point increase to 43, stabilizing after the -2 point drop to 42 seen in April. There are four of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Deere (consensus $2.72), Macy's (0.53), Computer Sciences Corp (1.00), Cisco Systems (0.49).
    Conferences during the remainder of this week include BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference on Tue/Wed, Credit Suisse Industrial & Environmental Services Conference on Tue/Wed, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Summit on Wed, Citi Global Energy and Utilities Conference on Tue-Thu, JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, RBC Capital Markets Aerospace & Defense Conference on Wed/Thu, 15th Annual Medicaid and GP Congress on Wed/Thu, Morgan Stanley Refining Conference on Thu, 19th International Cash, Treasury and Risk for Finance Professionals in Asia Co on Wed-Fri, and Google Developers Conference on Wed-Fri.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
    Noble Energy (NBL +1.69%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" at Stifel with a price target of $140.
    Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Google (GOOG +1.09%) to $996 from $932 and keeps an "Overweight" rating on the stock.
    Discover (DFS +3.03%) reported April net charge-offs of 1.94% vs. 2.13% last month and an April delinquency rate of 1.65% vs. 1.73% in March.
    Deere & Co. (DE +1.29%) tumbled 11% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $2.76, better than consensus of $2.72, but said global financial pressures, weather add caution to its outlook.
    Northrop Grumman (NOC +1.81%) increased its dividend to 61 cents a share from 55 cents.
    Polaris Industries (PII +1.42%) has been awarded a $382.5 million government contract for fire and emergency vehicles.
    Safeway (SWY +3.25%) announced that it will increase to its regular quarterly cash dividend from 17.5 cents per share to 20 cents per share.
    Pandora (P +6.82%) fell 4% in pre-market trading after the WSJ reported that Google (GOOG +1.09%) will launch a a paid, Spotify-like music streaming service.
    Agilent (A +2.16%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2013 to $2.70-$2.85, below consensus of $2.88, and said it will initiate a restructuring program that is expected to cut approximately 450 regular employees, or approximately 2% of its global workforce.
    Apollo Investment (AINV +0.91%) fell over 3% in after-hours trading after it filed to sell 18 million shares of common stock.

    MARKET COMMENTS
    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 -0.11%) this morning are down slightly by -0.75 of a point (-0.05%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday surged to a fresh all-time high on increased global economic optimism. Financial stocks led the rally after well-known hedge-fund manager David Tepper said U.S. banks are "a good sector." Stocks also found support from a rally in European shares after Eurozone Mar industrial production rose +1.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m, and on reduced European sovereign debt concerns after Fitch upgraded Greece's IDR to B- from CCC. Closes: S&P 500 +1.01%, Dow Jones +0.82%, Nasdaq 100 +0.47%.
    June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.06%) this morning are down -4 ticks. June 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed lower as the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-1/2 month high of 1.961%. Safe-haven demand for Treasuries was reduced when the S&P 500 posted another record high and after Fitch upgraded Greece. Another negative was hawkish commentary from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser who said the Fed should curtail bond purchases as early as its next FOMC meeting. Closes: TYM3 -8.0, FVM3 -3.0.
    The dollar index (DXY00 +0.45%) this morning is up +0.379 (+0.45%) at a new 9-1/2 month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0062(-0.48%) at a 1-1/4 month low and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +027 (+0.26%) at a fresh 4-1/2 year high. The dollar index on Tuesday climbed to a 9-1/2 month high and closed higher on increased optimism about the U.S. economic outlook. EUR/USD was undercut after German May ZEW economic sentiment rose less than expected, while USD/JPY posted a fresh 4-1/2 year high of 102.43 yen per dollar as the aggressive easing program by the BOJ continues to pressure the yen. Closes: Dollar index +0.318 (+0.16%), EUR/USD -0.00551 (-0.42%), USD/JPY +0.573 (+0.56%).
    June WTI crude oil (CLM13 -1.31%) this morning is down -77 cents a barrel (-0.82%) and June gasoline (RBM13 -0.16%) is up +0.025 of a cent a gallon (+0.09%). June crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settle mixed. A rally in the S&P 500 to a record high was a supportive factor, along with the IEA's hike in its 2013 global oil demand forecast by +65,000 barrels a day to 90.6 million barrels a day. Bearish factors included strength in the dollar and expectations for weekly IEA crude inventories to increase by +400,000 bbls Wednesday to an 82-year high. Closes: CLM3 -0.96(-1.01%), RBM3 +0.0166 (+0.59%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/15/2013

    US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +7.0% with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +2.4% and the refi sub-index up +8.3%.
     0830 ETMay Empire manufacturing index expected +0.95 to 4.00, Apr -6.19 to 3.05.
     0830 ETApr PPI expected -0.6% m/m and +0.8% y/y, Mar -0.6% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Apr PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
     0915 ETApr industrial production expected -0.1%, Mar +0.4%. Apr capacity utilization expected -0.2 at 78.3%, Mar 78.5%.
     1000 ETMay NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 43, Apr -2 to 42.
     1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
    JPN0100 ETJapan Apr consumer confidence expected +0.7 to 45.5, Mar 44.8.
     1950 ETJapan Q1 GDP expected +0.7% q/q and +2.7% annualized, Q4 unch q/q and +0.2% annualized. Q1 GDP deflator expected-0.9% y/y, Q4 -0.7% y/y.
    GER0200 ETGerman Q1 GDP expected +0.3% q/q and +0.2% y/y, Q4 -0.6% q/q and +0.4% y/y.
    UK0430 ETUK Apr jobless claims change expected -3,000, Mar -7,000. Apr claimant rate count expected unch at 4.6%, Mar 4.6%.
     0430 ETUK Mar avg weekly earnings expected +0.7% 3-mo/year-over-year, Feb +0.8% 3-mo/year-over-year. Mar avg earnings ex-bonus expected +0.8% 3-mo/year-over-year, Feb +1.0% 3-mo/year-over-year.
     0430 ETUK Mar ILO unemployment rate expected unch at 7.9% 3-mo, Feb 7.9% 3-mo.
     0530 ETBOE releases inflation report.
    EUR0500 ETEurozone Q1 GDP expected -0.1% q/q and -0.9% y/y, Q4 -0.6% q/q and -0.9% y/y (sa).

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/15/2013

    Company NameSymbolTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEPS Est (US$)
    Deere & CoDE USBef-mktQ2 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20132.72
    Macy's IncM USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.532
    Northrop Grumman CorpNOC US8:00Annual General MeetingY 2013 
    Computer Sciences CorpCSC US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.999
    PPL CorpPPL US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2013 
    Deere & CoDE US10:00Q2 2013 Earnings CallQ2 2013 
    State Street CorpSTT US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2013 
    Macy's IncM US10:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Xcel Energy IncXEL US Investor Meeting - New York - Day 3Y 2013 
    Halliburton CoHAL US Annual General MeetingY 2013

    Stocks: NBL, GOOG, DFS, DE, NOC, PII, SWY, P, A, AINV, M, CSC, PPL, STT, XEL, HAL
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