Tuesday, July 16th, 2013View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.04%) this morning are up +0.04% and European stocks are down -0.43%. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.64%, Hong Kong +0.04%, China +0.46%, Taiwan +0.07%, Australia +0.10%, Singapore -0.37%, South Korea -0.58%, India-0.91%. European stocks were undercut after German investor confidence in July unexpectedly declined and after European Jun auto sales fell to their lowest level in 2 decades. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Aug crude oil (CLQ13 +0.53%) is up +0.18%. Aug gasoline (RBQ13+0.40%) is up +0.47%, Aug gold (GCQ13 +0.43%) is up +0.51%, and Sep copper (HGU13 +0.46%) is up +0.38%. Agricultural and livestock prices are stronger. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.35%) is down -0.34%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.38% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.52%. September T-note prices (ZNU13 +0.14%) are up +6.5 ticks.
The German July ZEW economic sentiment survey unexpectedly fell -2.2 points to 36.3, weaker than expectations of a +1.5 point increase to 40.0. The July ZEW current situation survey rose +2.0 points to 10.6, stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 9.0.
The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association reported European Jun auto registrations fell -6.3% y/y to 1.18 million vehicles, the lowest for the month since 1996, while European Jan-Jun car sales fell -6.7% y/y to 6.44 million vehicles, the least for the first half of a year since 1993.
The Eurozone Jun CPI rose +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, right on expectations, and the Jun core CPI climbed at a +1.2% y/y pace, also right on expectations.
The Eurozone May trade balance unexpectedly grew to a 15.2 billion euro surplus from a revised 14.1 billion euros surplus in April, wider than expectations for the trade balance to shrink to 12.0 billion euros.
UK Jun CPI fell -0.2% m/m and rose +2.9% y/y, smaller increases than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +3.0% y/y, although Jun core CPI climbed at a +2.3% y/y pace, right on expectations.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
On a year-on-year basis, the June CPI is expected to rise to +1.6% y/y from +1.4% in May. However, the core CPI is expected to ease to +1.6% y/y from +1.7% in May. Today's June industrial production report is expected to show an increase of +0.3%, gaining ground again after being unchanged in May. Today's July NAHB housing market index is expected to show a small -1 point decline to 51, giving back a little ground after the +8 point surge to a 7-year high of 52 seen in June. There are 8 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Schwab (consensus $0.19), Coca-Cola (0.63), Comerica (0.70), Mosaic (1.15), Goldman Sachs (2.89), Johnson & Johnson (1.39), CSX (0.47), Yahoo (0.30). There are no equity conferences this week.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Amazon.com (AMZN -0.32%) was initiated with a "Buy" at SunTrust with a price target of $370.
General Motors (GM +0.27%) was upgraded to "Conviction Buy" from "Buy," while Ford (F +0.06%) was downgraded to "Buy" from "Conviction Buy" at Goldman.
Yum! Brands (YUM +1.59%) was initiated with a "Buy" at Stifel with a price target of $105.
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH -0.59%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Overweight" at JPMorgan.
DaVita (DVA -0.80%) was downgraded to "Sell" from "Neutral" at Goldman.
Mosaic (MOS +0.05%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.14, slightly weaker than expectations of $1.15.
Comerica (CMA -0.31%) reported Q2 EPS of 76 cents, better than expectations of 70 cents.
J.M. Smucker (SJM +0.61%) raised its quarterly dividend to 58 cents from 52 cents per share.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC -0.19%) said it will take charges of between $1.75-$1.85 on Q2 EPS and Q2 EPS may not compare to consensus estimates for $2.64 per share.
Brown & Brown (BRO +0.09%) reported Q2 EPS of 36 cents, better than consensus of 35 cents.
Cintas (CTAS -0.25%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 69 cents, below consensus of 70 cents.
Berry Plastics (BERY +0.23%) sees Q3 revenue of $1.22 billion-$1.23 billion, below consensus of $1.26 billion, due to soft customer demand.
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.04%) this morning are little changed, up +0.75 of a point (+0.04%). The U.S. stock market on Monday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) China Q2 GDP of +7.5% y/y, right on expectations, which reduced market concerns of a larger decline in Chinese economic growth, and (2) the unexpected +1.62 point increase in the July Empire manufacturing index to 9.36, its strongest pace of expansion in 5 months and better than expectations of a -2.84 decline to 5.00. Stocks basically ignored U.S. June retail sales, which rose +0.4% and were unchanged less autos, weaker than expectations of +0.8% and +0.5% less autos. Closes: S&P 500 +0.14%, Dow Jones +0.13%, Nasdaq 100 +0.03%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 +0.14%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed higher after the smaller-than-expected increase in June retail sales signaled weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP growth that may give the Fed pause before they begin to taper QE3. Closes: TYU3 +13.00, FVU3 +6.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.35%) this morning is down -0.286 (-0.34%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0050 (+0.38%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.52 (-0.52%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher after the July Empire manufacturing index climbed to its best level in 5 months and bolstered expectations for the Fed to soon taper its dollar negative bond purchases. The dollar fell back from its best level after U.S. June retail sales increased at a slower pace than expected. Closes: Dollar index +0.055 (+0.07%), EUR/USD -0.0078 (-0.05%), USD/JPY +0.619 (+0.62%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ13 +0.53%) this morning is up +19 cents (+0.18%) and Aug gasoline (RBQ13 +0.40%) is up +1.47 cents (+0.47%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed. Bullish factors included (1) the increase in China June crude demand to 9.991 million barrels a day, up +10.98% y/y, and (2) the unexpected increase in the July Empire manufacturing index to its best level in 5 months (+1.62 to 9.36). Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, and (2) the weaker-than-expected U.S. Jun retail sales. Closes: CLQ3 +0.37 (+0.35%), RBQ3 unch.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/16/2013
|US||0830 ET||Jun CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +1.6% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +1.4% y/y. Jun CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y.|
|0915 ET||Jun industrial production expected +0.3%, May unch. Jun capacity utilization expected +0.1 to 77.7%, May -0.1 to 77.6%.|
|1000 ET||Jul NAHB housing market index expected -1 to 51, Jun +8 to 52.|
|1415 ET||Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on economic conditions and agriculture at the Kansas City Feds 2013 Agricultural Symposium.|
|1630 ET||API weekly U.S. oil statistics.|
|EUR||0200 ET||Eurozone Jun new car registrations, May -5.9%.|
|0500 ET||Eurozone May trade balance expected +16.2 billion euros (sa), Apr +16.1 billion euros (sa).|
|0500 ET||Revised Eurozone CPI, previous +1.6% y/y and core CPI +1.2% y/y.|
|UK||0430 ET||UK Jun PPI input prices expected -0.2% m/m and +4.2% y/y, May -0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK Jun PPI output prices expected unch m/m and +1.9% y/y, May unch m/m and +1.2% y/y. Jun PPI output core prices expected +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK Jun CPI expected -0.1% m/m and +3.0% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Jun core CPI expected +2.3% y/y, May +2.2% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK Jun RPI expected unch m/m and +3.4% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +3.1% y/y. Jun RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +3.4% y/y, May +3.1% y/y.|
|GER||0500 ET||German July ZEW economic sentiment survey expected +1.5 to 40.0, Jun 38.5. July ZEW current situation survey expected +0.4 to 9.0, Jun 8.6.|
|CHI||2200 ET||China Jun actual foreign direct investment (NYSE:FDI) expected +0.7% y/y, May +0.3% y/y|
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/16/2013
|Company Name||Symbol||Time||Event Description||Period||EPS Est (US$)|
|Charles Schwab Corp/The||SCHW US||Bef-mkt||Q2 2013 Earnings Release||Q2 2013||0.187|
|Coca-Cola Co/The||KO US||Bef-mkt||Q2 2013 Earnings Release||Q2 2013||0.629|
|Comerica Inc||CMA US||Bef-mkt||Q2 2013 Earnings Release||Q2 2013||0.7|
|Mosaic Co/The||MOS US||7:00||Q4 2013 Earnings Release||Q4 2013||1.147|
|Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The||GS US||7:30||Q2 2013 Earnings Release||Q2 2013||2.886|
|Johnson & Johnson||JNJ US||7:45||Q2 2013 Earnings Release||Q2 2013||1.392|
|Comerica Inc||CMA US||8:00||Q2 2013 Earnings Call||Q2 2013|
|Johnson & Johnson||JNJ US||8:30||Q2 2013 Earnings Call||Q2 2013|
|Mosaic Co/The||MOS US||9:00||Q4 2013 Earnings Call||Q4 2013|
|Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The||GS US||9:30||Q2 2013 Earnings Call||Q2 2013|
|Coca-Cola Co/The||KO US||9:30||Q2 2013 Earnings Call||Q2 2013|
|Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc||FCX US||10:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Yahoo! Inc||YHOO US||17:00||Q2 2013 Earnings Call||Q2 2013|
|CSX Corp||CSX US||Aft-mkt||Q2 2013 Earnings Release||Q2 2013||0.473|
|Yahoo! Inc||YHOO US||Aft-mkt||Q2 2013 Earnings Release||Q2 2013||0.297|