BC - Wed Aug 14, 6:45AM CDT
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.15%) this morning are down -0.13%, although European stocks are up +0.11% after Eurozone Q2 GDP expanded more than forecast and after UK July jobless claims fell more than expected. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.32%, Hong Kong closed because of Typhoon Utor, China -0.42%, Taiwan -0.44%, Australia -0.01%, Singapore +0.14%, South Korea +0.65%, India +0.72%. Commodity prices are mixed. Sep crude oil (CLU13 -0.74%) is down -0.65%, Sep gasoline (RBU13 -0.53%) is down -0.49%, Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.30%) is up +0.32%, and Sep copper (HGU13 +0.08%) is up +0.18%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) is little changed, up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.11% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02%. September T-note prices (ZNU13 +0.02%) are up +2 ticks.
German Q2 GDP expanded at a +0.7% q/q and +0.5% y/y pace, stronger than expectations of +0.6% q/q and +0.2% y/y.
Eurozone Q2 GDP grew +0.3% q/q and fell -0.7% y/y, better than expectations of +0.2% q/q and -0.8% y/y.
Sovereign borrowing costs have fallen throughout the Eurozone as Italy's 10-year yield premium over benchmark German bunds shrank to 237 bp and Spain's 10-year yield premium over bunds shrank to 265 bp, both at their lowest levels in 2 years.
UK July jobless claims fell -29,200, nearly double expectations of -15,000, while Jun was revised up to show a -29,400 decrease in jobless claims, the biggest decline in 3-years and more than the originally reported -21,200. The July claimant count rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 4.3%, the lowest in 4-1/3 years and better than expectations of unchanged at 4.4%.
UK employment in the 3-months through Jun rose +69,000 to a record 29.8 million, while the unemployment rate in the 3-moths through June remained unchanged at 7.8%
UK Jun average weekly earnings rose +2.1% 3-month/year-over-year, a bigger increase than expectations of +2.0% 3-month/year-over-year and the most in 1-3/4 years. Jun average earnings ex-bonus rose +1.1% 3-month/year=over=year, right on expectations.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's July PPI report is expected to ease slightly to +2.4% y/y from +2.5% in June. Meanwhile, today's July core PPI is expected to fall to +1.3% y/y from +1.7% in June, illustrating continued disinflation pressures. There are 5 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Deere (consensus $2.18), Macy's (0.78), Agilent Technologies (0.62), Cisco Technologies (0.62), Cisco (0.51), NetApp (0.49).
Conferences during the remainder of this week include: Jefferies Global Industrials Conference on Mon-Thu, EnerCom The Oil & Gas Conference on Mon-Wed, Oppenheimer Technology, Internet & Communications Conference on Tue-Wed, JP Morgan Auto Conference on Tue-Wed, J.P. Morgan Auto Conference on Tue-Wed, Jefferies Global Clean Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, Avondale 2013 Healthcare Conference on Wed, and Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference on Wed.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Aeropostale (ARO -0.53%) was downgraded to "Underweight" from "Hold" at KeyBanc.
Transocean (RIG -0.21%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Strong Buy" at ISI Group.
Deere & Co. (DE +0.64%) reported Q3 EPS of $2.56, stronger than consensus of $2.18.
United Microelectronics (UMC +0.50%) was downgraded to "Sell" from "Neutral" at Goldman.
Citigroup upgraded (SINA +3.17%) to "Buy" from "Sell" and raised its price target for the stock to $96 from $35.
Towers Watson (TW +0.52%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.36, better than consensus of $1.27.
CNBC said David Tepper added 7 million shares of Goodyear Tire (GT -0.88%) to his holdings, which now stand at 22 million shares, making Tepper the largest shareholder of Goodyear Tire.
JDSU (JDSU unch) dropped over 1% in European trading after it lowered its Q1 revenue estimate to $410 million-$430 million, lower than consensus $432.79 million.
SeaWorld (SEAS -0.41%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 41 cents, well below consensus of 51 cents, and cut its fiscal 2013 revenue estimate to 1.45 billion-$1.48 billion, below consensus $1.5 billion.
Cree (CREE +1.35%) fell 15% in after-hours trading after it cut its Q1 revenue estimate to $380 million-$400 million, below consensus of $398.4 million, and said its sees Q1 EPS of 36 cents-41 cents, also below consensus of 43 cents.
PennyMac (PMT -1.57%) files to sell 11.3 million shares of common stock.
Brocade (BRCD +1.02%) jumped 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 19 cents, stronger than consensus of 12 cents.
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.15%) this morning are down -2.25 points (-0.13%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed higher on positive factors including (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after German Aug ZEW investor sentiment climbed +5.7 points to a 5-month high of 42.0, and (2) signs the economy is expanding moderately after U.S. July retail sales increased close to market estimates (0.2% and +0.5% ex autos, close to expectations of +0.3% and +0.4% ex autos). Gains remain limited on expectations the Fed will soon begin to taper its stimulus. Closes: S&P 500 +0.28%, Dow Jones +0.20%, Nasdaq 100 +0.48%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 +0.02%) this morning are up +2 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday fell sharply to a 1-week low and closed lower after U.S. retail sales increased near expectations, which fueled speculation the economy is strong enough for the Fed to begin reducing its bond buying. Closes: TYU3 -29.5, FVU3 -14.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) this morning is up +0.006 (+0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0015 (-0.11%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02 (-0.02%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher after U.S. July retail sales increased for a fourth month, which bolstered expectations that the Fed will soon taper its dollar-negative QE3 program. EUR/USD slipped to a 1-week low after Eurozone Jun industrial production rose +0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m. Closes: Dollar index +0.435 (+0.53%), EUR/USD -0.00377 (-0.28%), USD/JPY +1.298 (+1.34%).
Sep WTI crude oil (CLU13 -0.74%) this morning is down -0.69 (-0.65%) and Sep gasoline (RBU13 -0.53%) is down -0.0145 (-0.49%). Sep crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher as stronger-than-expected German Aug ZEW investor sentiment and expectations for weekly EIA crude inventories to decline on Wednesday offset the bearish factors of a stronger dollar and concern the Fed may be close to tapering QE3. Closes: CLU3 +0.72 (+0.68%), RBU3 +0.0337 (+1.16%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/14/2013
|US||0700 ET||Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.2% with purchase sub-index +0.7% and refi sub-index -0.1%.|
|0830 ET||July PPI expected +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Jun +0.8% m/m and +2.5% y/y. July PPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Jun +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y.|
|1030 ET||EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.|
|1320 ET||St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at the Paducah Convention Center on Challenges with Monetary Policy in Paducah, Kentucky.|
|GER||0200 ET||German Q2 GDP expected +0.6% q/q and +0.2% y/y, Q1 +0.1% q/q and -0.2% y/y.|
|UK||0430 ET||Minutes of the July 31-Aug 1 BOE policy meeting.|
|0430 ET||UK July jobless claims change expected -15,000, Jun -21,200. July claimant count rate expected unch at 4.4%, Jun 4.4%.|
|0430 ET||UK Jun ILO unemployment rate expected 7.8% 3-months, May 7.8% 3-months.|
|0430 ET||UK Jun avg weekly earnings expected +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year, May +1.7% 3-mo/year-over-year. Jun weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.1% 3-mo/year-over-year, May +1.0% 3-mo/year-over-year.|
|EUR||0500 ET||Eurozone Q2 GDP expected +0.2% q/q and -0.8% y/y, Q1 -0.2% q/q and -1.1% y/y.|
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/14/2013
|Company Name||Symbol||Time||Event Description||Period||EPS Est (US$)|
|Charles Schwab Corp/The||SCHW US||Bef-mkt||July 2013 Sales and Revenue Release - Activity Report||2013|
|Deere & Co||DE US||Bef-mkt||Q3 2013 Earnings Release||Q3 2013||2.175|
|Macy's Inc||M US||8:00||Q2 2014 Earnings Release||Q2 2014||0.782|
|Deere & Co||DE US||10:00||Q3 2013 Earnings Call||Q3 2013|
|Macy's Inc||M US||10:30||Q2 2014 Earnings Call||Q2 2014|
|NetApp Inc||NTAP US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.492|
|Progressive Corp/The||PGR US||July 2013 Sales and Revenue Release||2013|
|Stericycle Inc||SRCL US||Investor Meeting||Y 2013|
|Xilinx Inc||XLNX US||Annual General Meeting|