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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/26 0 comments
    Sep 26, 2013 10:31 AM | about stocks: ABEV, NSANY, DMND, FB, GWW, HTZ, MKC, FUL, BBBY, SNX, JBL, DLPH, MSFT, DOW, ORCL, NKE, ACN, AIZ, UPS

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Thursday, September 26th, 2013View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.21%) this morning are up +0.12% and European stocks are down -0.48%. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.22%, Hong Kong -0.36%, China -1.84%, Taiwan -1.20%, Australia +0.35%, Singapore -0.44%, South Korea +0.47%, India +0.19%. Gains in U.S. stock futures overnight were muted on concern that budget wrangling in Washington will lead to a shutdown of the federal government, while European stocks fell after UK economic growth was weaker than expected in Q2 and Eurozone private lending contracted in Aug for the sixteenth straight month. Japanese stocks closed higher after the Kyodo News reported that Prime Minister Abe's administration will pledge to "promptly" begin a study on reducing Japan's corporate tax rate. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX13 +0.38%) is up +0.41% and Nov gasoline (RBX13 +0.59%) is up +0.61%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.16%) is up +0.03% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.92%) is up +0.93%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mostly lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.18%) is up +0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.16% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 -0.06%) are down -3.5 ticks.

    ECB data showed Eurozone Aug loans to the private sector fell -2.0% y/y, the sixteenth consecutive monthly decline and the biggest drop since the start of the euro currency in 1999. Eurozone Aug M3 money supply rose +2.3% m/m and +2.3% y/y, right on expectations.

    Speaking at an event in Stockholm, Sweden today, Richmond Fed President Lacker said the Fed could scale back stimulus as soon as next month after this month's "disappointing" expectations. He said "I don't see any reason why we couldn't do it in December or potentially in October depending on what the data looks like."

    Revised UK Q2 GDP was +0.7% q/q and +1.3% y/y, slightly weaker than the originally reported +0.7% q/q and +1.5% y/y. Q2 total business investment was revised lower to -2.7% q/q and -8.5% y/y from the originally reported +0.9% q/q and -3.5% y/y.

    UK Q2 current account balance was -13.0 billion pounds, a wider deficit than expectations of -11.0 billion pounds, but an improvement from the record -21.8 billion pound deficit posted in Q1.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +16,000 to 325,000, adding to last week's increase of +15,000 to 309,000. Meanwhile, today's continuing claims report is expected to show an increase of +31,000 to 2.818 million, more than reversing last week's -28,000 decline to a 5-1/2 year low of 2.787 million. Today's Q2 GDP report is expected to be revised slightly higher to +2.6% (q/q annualized) from the last estimate of +2.5%. Today's Aug pending home sales report is expected to show a -1.0% m/m decline, adding to July's decline of -1.3% m/m. The Treasury today will sell $29 billion in 7-year T-notes to conclude this week's $97 billion T-note package. There are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: McCormick (consensus $0.79), NIKE (0.78), and Accenture (1.01).

    Conferences during the remainder of this week include the following: Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference on Tue-Thu, Keefe Bruyette & Woods Insurance Conference on Wed-Thu, and Capital Link International Shipping & Marine Services Forum on Thu.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    AmBev (ABV -1.13%) was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Neutral" at Credit Suisse.

    AP reports that Nissan (NSANY -0.53%) recalled 908,900 vehicles for defective accelerator sensors that could cause the engine to stall.

    Diamond Foods (DMND -1.08%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" at BB&T.

    Jefferies kept its "Buy" rating on Facebook (FB +2.08%) and raised its price target on the stock to $60 from $37.

    Grainger (GWW -0.41%) was upgraded to "Neutral" from "Sell" at Citigroup.

    Hertz (HTZ -0.12%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2013 adjusted EPS view to $1.68-$1.78 from $1.78-$1.88, below consensus of $1.89.

    McCormick (MKC -0.76%) reported Q3 EPS of 78 cents, slightly below consensus of 79 cents.

    H.B. Fuller (FUL -0.47%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 74 cents, stronger than consensus of 67 cents.

    Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY -0.79%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $1.16, better than consensus of $1.15.

    SYNNEX (SNX -0.78%) said it sees Q4 EPS of $1.14-$1.18, below consensus of $1.18.

    Jabil Circuit (JBL +1.22%) slid 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 56 cents, better than consensus of 54 cents, but then said it sees Q1 EPS of 50 cents-60 cents, below consensus of 63 cents.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.21%) this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.12%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday slipped to a 1-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) a slide in retailers after Wal-Mart said it will cut orders from its suppliers for this quarter and next to address rising inventories, and (2) concern that U.S. legislators will fail to reach an agreement on a continuing resolution and a hike in the debt ceiling to avoid a government shutdown. Stock prices rose early Wednesday after Aug new home sales rose +7.9% to 421,000. Closes: S&P 500 -0.27%, Dow Jones -0.40%, Nasdaq 100 -0.31%.

    Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 -0.06%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed higher and the yield on the 10-year T-note fell to a 6-week low on increased safe-haven demand over concern that the ongoing bickering in Washington over a continuing resolution and a hike in the debt ceiling. Closes: TYZ3 +11.00, FVZ3 +6.00.

    The dollar index (DXY00 +0.18%) this morning is up +0.066 (+0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0021 (-0.16%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24 (+0.24%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on concern about the ongoing battle in Washington over a continuing resolution and a hike in the debt ceiling. EUR/USD also found support after German Oct GfK consumer confidence rose to a 6-year high. Closes: Dollar index -0.229 (-0.28%), EUR/USD +0.00523 (+0.39%), USD/JPY -0.305 (-0.31%).

    Nov WTI crude oil (CLX13 +0.38%) this morning is up +42 cents (+0.41%) and Nov gasoline (RBX13 +0.59%) is up +0.0161 (+0.61%). Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled lower. Negative factors for crude prices included (1) the unexpected increase in weekly EIA crude inventories by +2.635 million bbl, more than expectation for a -1.000 million bbl draw, and (2) the unexpected increase in weekly EIA gasoline stockpiles by +217,000 bbl, higher than expectations for a -750,000 bbl decline. Supportive factors included (1) the weak dollar, and (2) the decline in crude stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, which fell for a twelfth week as they dropped -412,000 bbl to a 1-1/2 year low of 32.847 million bbl. Closes: CLX3 -0.47 (-0.46%), RBX3 -0.0019 (-0.07%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/26/2013

    US 0240 ET Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks at the Swedbank Economic Outlook Seminar in Stockholm on Monetary Policy in the United States: The Risks Associated with Unconventional Policies.
      0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +16,000 to 325,000, previous +15,000 to 309,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +31,000 to 2.818 million, previous 28,000 to 2.787 million.
      0830 ET Revised Q2 GDP expected +2.6% q/q annualized, previous +2.5%. Q2 personal consumption expected unrevised from last +1.8%. Q2 GDP price index expected unrevised at +0.8%. Q2 GDP core PCE deflator expected unrevised at +0.8% q/q.
      0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
      1000 ET Aug pending home sales expected -1.0% m/m and +6.3% y/y, July -1.3% m/m and +8.6% y/y.
      1010 ET Fed Governor Jeremy Stein speaks at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany on Yield-Oriented Investors and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism.
      1215 ET Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks at the Houghton, MI Rotary Club.
      1300 ET Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
      2115 ET Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the U.S. economy at the Colorado Economic Forum in Denver, CO.
    EUR 0400 ET Eurozone Aug M3 money supply expected +2.3% y/y and +2.3% 3-mo avg, July +2.2% y/y and +2.5% 3-mo avg.
      1815 ET ECB Council member Coeure speaks at a meeting of the Money Marketeers in New York.
    UK 0430 ET UK Q2 current account balance expected -11.0 billion pounds, Q1 -14.5 billion pounds.
      0430 ET Revised UK Q2 GDP, previous +0.7% q/q and +1.5% y/y. Revised Q2 total business investment, previous +0.9% q/q and -3.5% y/y.
      1905 ET UK Sep GfK consumer confidence expected +2 to -11, Aug -13.
    JPN 1930 ET Japan Aug national CPI expected +0.8% y/y, July +0.7% y/y. Aug national CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.7% y/y, July +0.7% y/y. Aug national CPI ex food & energy expected -0.1% y/y, July -0.1% y/y.
      1930 ET Japan Tokyo Sep CPI expected +0.5% y/y, Aug +0.5% y/y. Sep Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.3% y/y, Aug +0.4% y/y. Sep Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected -0.3% y/y, Aug -0.4% y/y.
    CHI 2130 ET China Aug industrial profits year-to-date, July +11.1% y/y

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/26/2013

    Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
    McCormick & Co Inc/MD MKC US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.785
    Delphi Automotive PLC DLPH US 7:00 Investor Day - Shanghai Y 2013  
    McCormick & Co Inc/MD MKC US 8:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
    Microsoft Corp MSFT US 12:00 Business Update Call    
    Dow Chemical Co/The DOW US 14:00 Dow Chemical Company and Sadara Chemical Company Joint Venture Update Call    
    Oracle Corp ORCL US 15:00 Analyst Meeting Y 2013  
    NIKE Inc NKE US 16:15 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.78
    Accenture PLC ACN US 16:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    NIKE Inc NKE US 17:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Accenture PLC ACN US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.006
    Assurant Inc AIZ US 22:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2013  
    United Parcel Service Inc UPS US   Roadshow - Day 4 Y 2013
    Stocks: ABEV, NSANY, DMND, FB, GWW, HTZ, MKC, FUL, BBBY, SNX, JBL, DLPH, MSFT, DOW, ORCL, NKE, ACN, AIZ, UPS
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