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BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/15

|Includes:AAPL, BRO, C, CBSH, CRS, CSX, DPZ, FRC, IBKR, INTC, JBHT, JNJ, KO, LLTC, M, MSFT, OMC, PKG, Transocean Ltd. (RIG), SCHW, TDC, TSLA, TXN, WMT, YHOO

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, October 15th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.04%) this morning are up +0.13% at a 3-week high and European stocks are up +0.62% after Democrat and Republican Senate leaders said they made progress in talks on a deal to suspend the debt ceiling through Feb 7 and fund the government through Jan 15. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.26%, Hong Kong +0.51%, China -0.20%, Taiwan +1.14%, Australia +0.98%, Singapore closed for holiday, South Korea +1.21%, India -0.29%. Another positive for stocks was the unexpected increase in German investor confidence to its highest level in 3-1/2 years. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Nov crude oil (CLX13 -0.72%) is down -0.57% and Nov gasoline (RBX13 -0.33%) is down -0.15%. Dec gold (GCZ13 -1.28%) is down -1.71% at a 3-month low and Dec copper (HGZ13 -0.54%) is down -0.53%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mostly lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.45%) is up +0.51% at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.54% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.05%. The Australian dollar rose to a 3-3/4 month high against the dollar after the minutes of the Oct 1 Reserve Bank of Australia meeting showed policy members refrained from saying a weaker currency would help the economy. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 -0.09%) are down -5 ticks at a 3-week low on reduced safe-haven demand.

The German Oct ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +3.2 to 52.8, higher than expectations of no change at 49.6 and the highest in 3-1/2 years. The Oct ZEW survey current situation unexpectedly fell -0.9 to 29.7, weaker than expectations of +0.7 to 31.3.

The German Aug import price index rose +0.1% m/m and fell -3.4% y/y, slightly higher than expectations of unch m/m and -3.9% y/y.

UK Sep PPI input prices fell -1.2% m/m and rose +1.1% y/y, less than expectations of -0.6% m/m and +2.2% y/y. Sep PPI output prices fell -0.1% m/m and rose +1.2% y/y, smaller increases than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y. Sep PPI output core fell -0.1% m/m and rose +0.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y.

UK Sep CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Sep core CPI climbed +2.2% y/y, higher than expectations of +2.0% y/y. Sep RPI climbed +0.4% m/m and +3.2% y/y, right on expectations, and Sep RPI ex-mortgage interest payments rose +3.2% y/y, also right on expectations.

The Japan Aug industrial production was revised down to -0.9% m/m and -0.4% y/y from the originally reported -0.7% m/m and -0.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The markets today will be hoping for a CR and debt ceiling agreement from the Senate. The question then will be whether House Speaker Boehner will accept the deal and put that deal to the floor for a vote or whether he will block the vote or send a Republican counteroffer back to the Senate. Today's Oct Empire manufacturing index is expected to show a small +0.71 point increase to 7.00, reversing some of the -1.95 point decline to 6.29 seen in September. There are 14 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including Coca-Cola (consensus $0.53), Johnson & Johnson (1.32), Charles Schwab (0.20), JB Hunt (0.78), Citigroup (1.04), Interactive Brokers (0.33), CSX (0.43), Intel (0.54), Yahoo (0.33).

Equity conferences this week include: 10/16/2013 on Wed; International Cash and Treasury Management Conference on Wed-Fri; Canaccord Genuity Global Resource Conference on Wed-Fri; Conference Board of Canada: Canada's North Summit 2013 on Wed; Bloomberg Oil & Gas Conference on Thu; Global Automotive Forum Annual Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Transocean (RIG +0.51%) was downgraded to "Hold" from "Buy" at Argus.

Domino's Pizza (DPZ +0.72%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 51 cents, weaker than consensus of 52 cents.

Tesla (TSLA +0.57%) was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Neutral" at Wedbush.

Texas Instruments (TXN +0.42%) was upgraded to "Neutral" from "Negative" at Susquehanna.

Microsoft (MSFT +0.94%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" at Jefferies who also raised their price target on the stock to $42 from $33.

Omnicon Group (OMC +0.39%) reported Q3 EPS of 82 cents, better than consensus of 81 cents.

Coca-Cola (KO +0.37%) reported Q3 EPS of 53 cents, right on expectations.

Macy's (M -0.14%) said it will open most stores nationwide at 8pm on Thanksgiving evening.

Packaging Corp. (PKG +1.60%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 91 cents, better than consensus of 89 cents.

Brown & Brown (BRO +1.21%) reported Q3 EPS of 39 cents, below consensus of 40 cents.

Teradata (TDC -0.70%) fell 13% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q3 EPS of 69 cents-70 cents, well below consensus of 81 cents, and cut its fiscal 2013 EPS view to $2.70-$2.80, below consensus of $3.05.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.04%) this morning are up +2.25 points (+0.13%) at a fresh 3-week high. The S&P 500 index on Monday shook off early losses and rallied to a 3-week high and closed higher on optimism that a debt limit deal might be forthcoming after reports that Senate leaders were close to a deal on both the CR and debt ceiling. Closes: S&P 500 +0.41%, Dow Jones +0.42%, Nasdaq 100 +0.69%.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 -0.09%) this morning are down -5 ticks at a 3-week low. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed lower after stocks rebounded on optimism that U.S. lawmakers will finally come to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and reopen the government. T-notes had opened higher on increased safe-haven demand after stocks opened lower on the political deadlock in Washington and on global economic concerns after China Sep exports unexpectedly declined. Closes: TYZ3 -6, FVZ3 -5.25.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.45%) this morning is up +0.410 (+0.51%) at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0073 (-0.54%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.05 (+0.05%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on the continued deadlock in Washington on the CR and debt ceiling. EUR/USD found support on the Eurozone Aug industrial production of +1.0% m/m and fell -2.1% y/y, better than expectations of +0.8% m/m and -2.5% y/y. Closes: Dollar index -0.099 (-0.12%), EUR/USD +0.00199 (+0.15%), USD/JPY -0.17 (-0.02%).

Nov WTI crude oil (CLX13 -0.72%) this morning is down -58 cents (-0.57%) and Nov gasoline (RBX13 -0.33%) is down -0.0040 (-0.15%). Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed mixed. Crude prices shook off early losses and closed higher on bullish factors that included (1) optimism that U.S. lawmakers will finally reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling, and (2) increased Chinese demand after China Sep crude imports rose to a record 25.61 MMT, up +25% m/m. Limiting gains in crude was concern over global economic growth after China Sep exports unexpectedly declined. Closes: CLX3 +0.39 (+0.38%), RBX3 -0.0013 (-0.05%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/15/2013

US 0830 ET Oct Empire manufacturing index expected +0.71 to 7.00, Sep -1.95 to 6.29.
  1000 ET New York Fed president William Dudley speaks on a panel on Unconventional Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence at the International Conference: Central Bank Independence, Progress and Challenges.
  1100 ET USDA weekly grain export inspections.
  1600 ET USDA Crop Progress.
  1915 ET Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on the U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Money Marketeers of New York University.
JPN 0030 ET Revised Japan Aug industrial production, previous -0.7% m/m and -0.2% y/y. Aug capacity utilization, July +3.7% m/m.
UK 0430 ET UK Sep PPI input prices expected -0.6% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Aug -0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
  0430 ET UK Sep PPI output prices expected +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y/. Sep output core expected +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +1.0% y/y.
  0430 ET UK Sep CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Aug +0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Sep CPI core expected +2.0% y/y, Aug +2.0% y/y.
  0430 ET UK Sep RPI expected +0.4% m/m and +3.2% y/y, Aug +0.5% m/m and +3.3% y/y. Sep RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +3.2% y/y, Aug +3.3% y/y.
GER 0200 ET German Aug import price index expected unch m/m and -3.9% y/y, July +0.3% m/m and -2.6% y/y.
  0500 ET German Oct ZEW survey expectations expected unch at 49.6.0, Sep 49.6. Oct ZEW current situation expected +0.7 to 31.3, Sep 30.6.
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U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/15/2013

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Coca-Cola Co/The KO US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.533
Johnson & Johnson JNJ US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.324
Charles Schwab Corp/The SCHW US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.204
Commerce Bancshares Inc/MO CBSH US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.722
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc JBHT US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.781
First Republic Bank/CA FRC US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.759
Omnicom Group Inc OMC US 7:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.81
Domino's Pizza Inc DPZ US 7:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.523
Citigroup Inc C US 8:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.039
Packaging Corp of America PKG US 8:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Johnson & Johnson JNJ US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Omnicom Group Inc OMC US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Brown & Brown Inc BRO US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Wal-Mart Stores Inc WMT US 8:45 Analyst Meeting Y 2013  
Coca-Cola Co/The KO US 9:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Domino's Pizza Inc DPZ US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Citigroup Inc C US 11:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
First Republic Bank/CA FRC US 14:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Interactive Brokers Group Inc IBKR US 16:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.332
Interactive Brokers Group Inc IBKR US 16:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Intel Corp INTC US 17:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Yahoo! Inc YHOO US 17:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
CSX Corp CSX US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.425
Intel Corp INTC US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.535
Linear Technology Corp LLTC US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.449
Yahoo! Inc YHOO US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.332
Carpenter Technology Corp CRS US   Annual General Meeting    
Apple Inc AAPL US   Wi-Lan Trial Begins in Apple Inc. Patent-Infringement Case
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Stocks: RIG, DPZ, TSLA, TXN, MSFT, OMC, KO, M, PKG, BRO, TDC, JNJ, SCHW, CBSH, JBHT, FRC, C, WMT, IBKR, INTC, YHOO, CSX, LLTC, CRS, AAPL