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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORING CALL 10/17 0 comments
    Oct 17, 2013 3:03 PM | about stocks: GS, SON, VZ, HOG, CCK, NE, SNDK, XLNX, EBAY, AMRN, UFPI, IBM, AXP, NUE, PPG, HBAN, SNA, BBT, DGX, BTU, MTB, DHR, UNH, FITB, BAX, PM, DOV, UNP, APH, SLM, DELL, GOOG, ISRG

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Thursday, October 17th, 2013View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.07%) this morning are down -0.09% and European stocks are down -0.38%. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.83%, Hong Kong -0.57%, China -0.33%, Taiwan +0.51%, Australia +0.38%, Singapore +0.40%, South Korea +0.50%, India -0.64%. Stocks are weaker even after President Obama signed into law a measure ending the 16-day government shutdown and extending the debt limit. U.S. lawmakers didn't resolve any of their issues over spending priorities or deficit-reduction measures and will still have to return to the same issues over the next 4 months. IBM is down 5.8% in pre-market trading and is leading stocks lower after it reported its sixth consecutive drop in quarterly sales. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX13 -0.43%) is down -0.49% and Nov gasoline (RBX13 -0.36%) is down -0.31. Dec gold (GCZ13 +2.57%) is up +1.87% at a 1-week high and Dec copper (HGZ13 -0.86%) is down -0.95%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.78%) is down -0.66% at a 1-week low as the dysfunction in Washington has spurred speculation the Fed will not taper QE until next year. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.68% at a 2-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.76%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.35%) are up +11.5 ticks at a 2-week high on speculation the fight over the debt limit lowered economic growth and undercut consumer confidence and will force the Fed to maintain its pace of bond buying.

    Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., one of China's four biggest credit rating companies, cut its sovereign debt rating for the U.S. to A- from A, saying "such political environment over debt repayment renders the dim and pale prospect of the U.S. federal government's solvency."

    China Sep foreign direct investment rose +4.9% y/y, a smaller increase than expectations of +5.7% y/y.

    UK Sep retail sales ex autos rose +0.7% m/m and +2.8% y/y, better than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y. Sep retail sales including autos rose +0.6% m/m and +2.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.0% y/y.

    Eurozone Aug construction output rose +0.5% m/m and fell -4.7% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    The U.S. government is scheduled to reopen today after the Senate and the House late yesterday approved a CR and debt ceiling deal. The market consensus is that today's initial unemployment claims report will show a decline of -39,000 to 335,000, reversing part of last week's surge of +66,000 to a 6-month high 374,000. Meanwhile, today's continuing claims report is expected to show a small +3,000 increase to 2.908 million, adding to last week's increase of +16,000 to 2.905 million. Today's Oct Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a -7.3 point decline to 15.0, reversing about one-half of September's increase of +13.0 to a 2-1/2 year high of 22.3.

    There are 24 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including Goldman Sachs (consensus $2.47), Google (10.36), UnitedHealth Group (1.53), Fifth Third Bancorp (0.42), Verizon (0.74), and Capital One (1.81). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: International Cash and Treasury Management Conference on Wed-Fri; Canaccord Genuity Global Resource Conference on Wed-Fri; Conference Board of Canada: Canada's North Summit 2013 on Wed; Bloomberg Oil & Gas Conference on Thu; Global Automotive Forum Annual Conference on Thu.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Goldman Sachs (GS +2.93%) is down 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $2.88, better than consensus of $2.43, but reported Q3 revenue of $6.72 billion, below consensus of $7.36 billion.

    Sonoco Products (SON +0.78%) reported Q3 base EPS of 63 cents, better than consensus of 61 cents.

    Verizon Communications (VZ +2.01%) reported Qe EPS of 77 cents, better than expectations of 74 cents.

    Harley-Davidson (HOG +1.98%) is voluntarily recalling over 28,000 2014 Touring motorcycles equipped with a hydraulic clutch system that may pose a safety issue for riders and/or passengers.

    Crown Holdings (CCK -0.80%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.13, better than consensus of $1.08.

    Noble Corp. (NE +0.59%) reported Q3 EPS ex-gain of 85 cents, better than consensus of 70 cents.

    SanDisk (SNDK +0.40%) climbed 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.59, well ahead of consensus of $1.32.

    Xilinx (XLNX +1.21%) fell over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 49 cents, below consensus of 53 cents.

    eBay (EBAY -0.83%) slid 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 64 cents, just above consensus of 63 cents, but said it sees Q4 EPS of 79 cents-81 cents, weaker than consensus of 83 cents.

    Amarin (AMRN +3.19%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from 'Buy' at SunTrust and from 'Hold' to 'Buy' at Aegis.

    Universal Forest (UFPI +1.21%) reported Q3 EPS of 71 cents, well ahead of consensus of 54 cents.

    IBM (IBM +1.12%) fell over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $3.99, better than consensus $3.96, although Q3 revenue of $23.7 billion was below consensus of $24.77 billion.

    American Express (AXP +1.42%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.25, better than consensus of $1.22.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.07%) this morning are down -1.50 points (-0.09%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday rallied sharply to a 3-week high and closed higher on optimism U.S. lawmakers will finally agree on a CR and a debt limit increase. Stocks surged after House Republicans guaranteed passage of the Senate's plan to end the government shutdown and extend the debt ceiling. Stocks also received support on reduced chances of the Fed tapering QE this month when Dallas Fed President Fisher said that "reckless" U.S. fiscal policy will likely force the Fed to maintain QE at the Oct 29-30 FOMC meeting. Closes: S&P 500 +1.38%, Dow Jones +1.36%, Nasdaq 100 +1.14%.

    Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.35%) this morning are up +11.5 ticks at a 2-week high. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday recovered from a 3-week low and closed higher. T-notes weakened early on reduced safe-haven demand after stocks rallied sharply on optimism for a debt limit increase after House Republicans said they will pass the Senate plan to end the U.S. fiscal stalemate. However, Dec T-notes recovered their losses and moved higher after the Oct NAHB housing market index fell more than expected to a 4-month low and after Dallas Fed President Fisher said the Fed will stand pat at this month's FOMC meeting. Closes: TYZ3 +13, FVZ3 +6.

    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.78%) this morning is down -0.534 (-0.66%) at a 1-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0092 (+0.68%) at a 2-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.75 (-0.76%). The dollar index on Wednesday retreated from a 4-week high and closed little changed after Dallas Fed President Fisher said the fiscal mess in Washington will force the Fed to not taper QE at this month's FOMC meeting. The dollar had rallied early on optimism a debt ceiling hike will finally be implemented after House Speaker Boehner said he will agree to take up the Senate plan to end the fiscal impasse. Closes: Dollar index -0.003 (-0.01%), EUR/USD +0.0010 (+0.07%), USD/JPY +0.611 (+0.62%).

    Nov WTI crude oil (CLX13 -0.43%) this morning is down -50 cents (-0.49%) and Nov gasoline (RBX13 -0.36%) is down -0.0083 (-0.31%). Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher with Nov gasoline at a 4-week high on optimism U.S. lawmakers will come together on a deal to raise the debt limit after House Speaker Boehner said he will agree to take up the Senate plan to end the impasse. Closes: CLX3 +1.08 (+1.07%), RBX3 +0.0423 (+1.59%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/17/2013

    USn/aTreasurys hits debt ceiling with about $30 billion left in cash.
     0745 ETDallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks at the Economic Club of New York breakfast.
     0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -39,000 to 335,000, previous +66,000 to 374,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +3,000 to 2.908 million, previous +16,000 to 2.905 million.
     0830 ETSep housing starts expected +2.1% to 910,000, Aug +0.9% to 891,000. Sep building permits expected +1.0% to 935,000, Aug -2.9% to 926,000 (subject to postponement).
     0830 ETSep CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Sep CPI ex food and energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y (subject to postponement).
     1000 ETOct Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected -7.3 to 15.0, Sep +13.0 to 22.3.
     1100 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (postponed).
     1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 30-year TIPS to be auctioned Oct 24.
     1245 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks at the Wisconsin Real Estate and Economic Outlook Conference.
     1245 ETKansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the U.S. economy at the Oklahoma City Business and Community Leaders Luncheon.
    JPN0200 ETRevised Japan Sep machine tool orders, previous -6.3%.
    EUR0400 ETEurozone Aug current account (nsa), July +26.6 billion euros.
     0500 ETEurozone Aug construction output, July +0.3% m/m and -1.2% y/y.
    UK0430 ETUK Sep retail sales ex autos expected +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Aug -1.0% m/m and +2.3% y/y.
     0430 ETUK Sep retail sales including autos expected +0.4% and +2.0% y/y, Aug -0.9% m/m and +2.1% y/y.
    CHI2200 ETChina Q3 GDP expected +7.8% annualized, Q2 +7.5% annualized.
     2200 ETChina Sep industrial production expected +10.2% y/y, Aug +10.4% y/y.
     2200 ETChina Sep retail sales expected +13.5% y/y, Aug +13.4% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/17/2013

    Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
    Nucor CorpNUE USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.389
    PPG Industries IncPPG USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20132.345
    Huntington Bancshares Inc/OHHBAN USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.17
    Snap-on IncSNA USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.415
    BB&T CorpBBT USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.699
    Quest Diagnostics IncDGX USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.02
    Peabody Energy CorpBTU USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 2013-0.044
    M&T Bank CorpMTB USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20132.088
    Danaher CorpDHR US6:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.828
    UnitedHealth Group IncUNH US6:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.526
    Fifth Third BancorpFITB US6:30Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.415
    Baxter International IncBAX US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.191
    Philip Morris International IncPM US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.433
    Dover CorpDOV US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.498
    Verizon Communications IncVZ US7:30Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.739
    Goldman Sachs Group Inc/TheGS US7:30Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20132.467
    BB&T CorpBBT US8:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Danaher CorpDHR US8:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Union Pacific CorpUNP US8:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20132.47
    Amphenol CorpAPH US8:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.965
    SLM CorpSLM US8:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Baxter International IncBAX US8:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Verizon Communications IncVZ US8:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Quest Diagnostics IncDGX US8:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Union Pacific CorpUNP US8:45Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    UnitedHealth Group IncUNH US8:45Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Philip Morris International IncPM US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Noble CorpNE US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Fifth Third BancorpFITB US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Goldman Sachs Group Inc/TheGS US9:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Huntington Bancshares Inc/OHHBAN US10:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Snap-on IncSNA US10:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Dover CorpDOV US10:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013 
    Dell IncDELL US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2013 
    Google IncGOOG USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 201310.357
    Intuitive Surgical IncISRG USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20133.395

    Stocks: GS, SON, VZ, HOG, CCK, NE, SNDK, XLNX, EBAY, AMRN, UFPI, IBM, AXP, NUE, PPG, HBAN, SNA, BBT, DGX, BTU, MTB, DHR, UNH, FITB, BAX, PM, DOV, UNP, APH, SLM, DELL, GOOG, ISRG
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