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BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/30

|Includes:ADP, ALL, AMT, BWA, CBI, CMCSA, CSC, EA, EIX, EQR, EXC, EXPE, FB, FISV, FLEX, GAS, GILD, GLW, General Motors Company (GM), GNW, GRMN, HES, JBL, KHC, KIM, KR, LNC, MAR, MAT, MCHP, MET, MUR, OI, PCG, PEG, PKI, PX, RRC, SBUX, SEE, SO, STX, TEL, TGT, TTWO, V, VIAV, WEC, XL

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, October 30th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.24%) this morning are up +0.27% at a record high and European stocks are up +0.52%. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +1.23%, Hong Kong +2.00%, China +1.49%, Taiwan +0.52%, Australia +0.28%, Singapore +0.67%, South Korea +0.43%, India +0.50%. Stocks are higher worldwide on speculation the Fed will continue its stimulus measures at the conclusion of the 2-day FOMC meeting later today. Expectations are for no change in the Fed's $85 billion monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. European stocks received a boost after Eurozone Oct economic confidence rose more-than-expected to a 2-year high. Chinese stocks closed higher despite an increase in China's 7-day repurchase rate, which rose by +38 bp to a 3-3/4 month high of 5.42%. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 -1.01%) is down -0.69% after weekly API inventories, released late yesterday afternoon, showed crude stockpiles climbed last week by +5.9 million barrels. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +0.29%) is up +0.48%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.37%) is up +0.33% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +1.02%) is up +1.10%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.11% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.07%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.05%) are up +3.5 ticks.

The Eurozone Oct business climate indicator rose +0.18 to -0.01, more than expectations of +0.01 to -0.19, and the highest in 2-years, and the Oct economic confidence rose +0.9 to 97.8, better than expectations of +0.3 to 97.2 and also the highest in 2-years.

German Oct unemployment rose 2,000, more than expectations for no change, while the Oct unemployment rate remained unch at 6.9%, right on expectations.

The UK Oct Lloyds business barometer rose +6 from Sep to 63, the highest since the data series began in 2002.

Japan Sep industrial production rose +1.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.8% m/m and +5.5% y/y.

Japan Sep vehicle production climbed +13.0% y/y, the first increase in 13 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The 2-day FOMC meeting concludes today and the market is not expecting the FOMC to announce QE3 tapering. Today's Oct ADP employment report is expected to show a weak increase of +150,000, slipping from September's report of +166,000. Today's Sep CPI report is expected to ease to +1.2% y/y from +1.5% in August. Meanwhile, the Sep core CPI is expected to be unchanged from August at +1.8% y/y. The Treasury today will sell $29 billion of 7-year T-notes, concluding this week's $97 billion T-note auction package. There are 35 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including PG&E, BorgWarner, Comcast, Garmin, Hess, ADP, The Southern Company, GM, Phillips 66, Kraft, Expedia, Allstate, Marriott, Visa, Starbucks, Williams Companies, MetLife. Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include The Buttonwood Gathering 2013 on Tue/Wed, Hart Energy Crude In Motion Conference on Wed, The 7th ICIS European Gas Conference on Wed, 7th Toronto Global Forum on Wed-Thu, and SelectUSA 2013 Investment Summit on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

General Motors (GM +0.73%) reported Q3 EPS of 96 cents, better than consenus of 94 cents.

Comcast (CMCSA -1.08%) reported Q3 EPS of 65 cents, better than consensus of 61 cents.

Exelon (EXC -0.07%) reported Q3 EPS of 78 cents, stronger than consensus of 67 cents.

Garmin Ltd (GRMN +0.56%) reported Q3 EPS of 69 cents, well ahead of consensus of 59 cents.

Facebook (FB -1.65%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BTIG with a price target of $68 a share.

Genworth (GNW +1.32%) reported Q3 EPS of 24 cents, lower than consensus of 25 cents.

Take-Two (TTWO +1.53%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.49, well ahead of consensus of $1.72, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 to $3.50-$3.75, well ahead of consensus of $2.80. The company said the largest contributor to Q2 earnings were sales of Grand Theft Auto V which has shattered entertainment industry records and sold nearly 29 million units to date.

Flextronics (FLEX -1.45%) lowered guidance on Q3 EPS to 21 cents-23 cents, weaker than consensus of 25 cents.

Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI unch) reported Q3 EPS with items of $1.08, below consensus of $1.10.

Electronic Arts (EA -2.82%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, nearly three times consensus of 12 cents.

Gilead (GILD +1.12%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 52 cents, better than consensus of 48 cents.

Edison International (EIX -0.22%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.42, well ahead of consensus of $1.23, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $3.60-$3.70 from $3.25-$3.45, bette rthan consensus of $3.36.

Fiserv (FISV -0.02%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.56, better than consensus of $1.51.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.24%) this morning are up +4.75 points (+0.27%) at a fresh all-time high. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday posted another record high and closed higher on speculation that the weaker-than-expected U.S. Sep retail sales and Oct consumer confidence reports will keep the Fed from tapering QE3. The U.S. Sep retail sales report of -0.1% m/m and +0.4% ex-autos was slightly weaker than unch m/m and +0.4% ex-autos, while U.S. Oct consumer confidence (Conference Board) fell -9.0 to 71.2, a bigger decline than expectations of -4.7 to 75.0 and the lowest level in 6 months. Closes: S&P 500 +0.56%, Dow Jones +0.72%, Nasdaq 100 +0.27%.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.05%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed higher on speculation that the weaker-than-expected U.S. Sep retail sales and Oct consumer confidence reports will prompt the Fed to maintain its $85 billion a month bond-buying program. Gains in T-notes were limited after the Aug S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index rose +12.82% y/y, higher than expectations of +12.50% y/y and the biggest annual gain in 7-1/2 years. Closes: TYZ3 +5.0, FVZ3 +2.25.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.046 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0015 (+0.11%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.07 (+0.07%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on speculation the Fed will refrain from additional stimulus measures following its Tue/Wed FOMC meeting. Losses in EUR/USD were limited after hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Nowotny who said it's "unlikely" the ECB will cut interest rates further. Closes: Dollar index +0.361 (+0.46%), EUR/USD -0.00398 (-0.29%), USD/JPY +0.52 (+0.53%).

Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 -1.01%) this morning is down -68 cents (-0.69%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +0.29%) is up +0.0125 (+0.48%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower on strength in the dollar along with expectations that weekly EIA crude inventories on Wednesday will climb for a sixth consecutive week. Closes: CLZ3 -0.48 (-0.49%), RBZ3 -0.0186 (-0.71%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/30/2013

US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.6% with purchase sub-index +0.7% and refi sub-index-1.3%.
  0815 ET Oct ADP employment change expected +150,000, Sep +166,000.
  0830 ET Sep CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Sep CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
  1030 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
  1300 ET Treasury auctions $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.
  1400 ET FOMC policy announcement. QE3 expected unchanged at $85 billion per month ($40 billion of MBS and $45 billion of Treasury securities).
JPN 0000 ET Japan Sep vehicle production, Aug -7.6% y/y.
  1915 ET Japan Oct Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Sep 52.5.
  2130 ET Japan Sep labor cash earnings expected -0.4% y/y, Aug -0.9% y/y.
GER 0455 ET German Oct unemployment change expected unch, Sep +25,000. Oct unemployment rate expected unch at 6.9%, Sep 6.9%.
  0900 ET German Oct CPI (EU harmonized) expected unch m/m and +1.5% y/y, Sep unch m/m and +1.6% y/y.
UK 0530 ET UK Oct Lloyd business barometer, Sep 57.
  2005 ET UK Oct GfK consumer confidence expected +2 to -8, Sep -10.
EUR 0600 ET Eurozone Oct business climate indicator expected +0.01 to -0.19, Sep -0.20. Oct economic confidence expected +0.3 to 97.2, Sep 96.9.
  0600 ET Revised Eurozone Oct consumer confidence expected no change at -14.5.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/30/2013

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
PG&E Corp PCG US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.781
BorgWarner Inc BWA US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.339
Exelon Corp EXC US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.665
Praxair Inc PX US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.514
Corning Inc GLW US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.32
TE Connectivity Ltd TEL US 6:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.902
American Tower Corp AMT US 7:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.908
Wisconsin Energy Corp WEC US 7:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.586
Comcast Corp CMCSA US 7:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.609
Garmin Ltd GRMN US 7:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.591
Hess Corp HES US 7:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.444
Automatic Data Processing Inc ADP US 7:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.658
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc PEG US 7:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.757
Southern Co/The SO US 7:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.111
Sealed Air Corp SEE US 7:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.334
General Motors Co GM US 7:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.942
AGL Resources Inc GAS US 8:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.145
Genworth Financial Inc GNW US 8:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Phillips 66 PSX US 8:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.934
Automatic Data Processing Inc ADP US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Corning Inc GLW US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
American Tower Corp AMT US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
TE Connectivity Ltd TEL US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Comcast Corp CMCSA US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Aflac Inc AFL US 9:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
AGL Resources Inc GAS US 9:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Ameriprise Financial Inc AMP US 9:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Range Resources Corp RRC US 9:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
BorgWarner Inc BWA US 9:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Jabil Circuit Inc JBL US 9:30 Analyst Meeting Y 2013  
Kroger Co/The KR US 9:30 Investor Meeting Y 2013  
Hess Corp HES US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Exelon Corp EXC US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Sealed Air Corp SEE US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Boston Properties Inc BXP US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
General Motors Co GM US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Kimco Realty Corp KIM US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Mattel Inc MAT US 10:00 Analyst Meeting Y 2013  
Garmin Ltd GRMN US 10:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Praxair Inc PX US 11:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc PEG US 11:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Phillips 66 PSX US 11:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
PG&E Corp PCG US 12:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Southern Co/The SO US 13:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Target Corp TGT US 13:00 Financial Community Meeting Y 2013  
Wisconsin Energy Corp WEC US 14:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Kraft Foods Group Inc KRFT US 16:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.696
Expedia Inc EXPE US 16:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.358
Allstate Corp/The ALL US 16:05 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.443
Computer Sciences Corp CSC US 16:15 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.828
Expedia Inc EXPE US 16:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Visa Inc V US 17:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Microchip Technology Inc MCHP US 17:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Marriott International Inc/DE MAR US 17:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.448
Computer Sciences Corp CSC US 17:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
PerkinElmer Inc PKI US 17:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Starbucks Corp SBUX US 17:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
JDS Uniphase Corp JDSU US 17:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
XL Group PLC XL US 17:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Kraft Foods Group Inc KRFT US 17:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Murphy Oil Corp MUR US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.468
Owens-Illinois Inc OI US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.768
Visa Inc V US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.851
Microchip Technology Inc MCHP US Aft-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.597
PerkinElmer Inc PKI US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.482
Starbucks Corp SBUX US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.6
JDS Uniphase Corp JDSU US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.116
XL Group PLC XL US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.537
Williams Cos Inc/The WMB US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.142
Lincoln National Corp LNC US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.222
MetLife Inc MET US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.36
Equity Residential EQR US   Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.728
Seagate Technology PLC STX US   Annual General Meeting
Stocks: GM, CMCSA, EXC, GRMN, FB, GNW, TTWO, FLEX, CBI, EA, GILD, EIX, FISV, PCG, BWA, PX, GLW, TEL, AMT, WEC, HES, ADP, PEG, SO, SEE, GAS, RRC, JBL, KR, KIM, MAT, TGT, EXPE, ALL, CSC, V, MCHP, MAR, PKI, SBUX, VIAV, XL, KHC, MUR, OI, LNC, MET, EQR, STX