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BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/31

|Includes:ABC, ALL, ARRS, AVP, BEAM, Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH), CAR, CHTR, CI, CLX, CNW, CNX, COP, DISCA, EL, EQR, EW, EXPE, FB, FSLR, HAR, HBI, IRM, IVZ, JAH, KHC, LNC, MA, MAR, MET, MOH, MPC, MYL, NI, OI, ORCL, PNW, PPL, PRGO, PWR, RSG, SBUX, SCG, TDC, TE, WMB, XOM

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, October 31st, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.20%) this morning are down -0.26% and European stocks are up +0.22%. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.20%, Hong Kong -0.42%, China -1.40%, Taiwan -0.18%, Australia -0.10%, Singapore -0.61%, South Korea -1.67%, India +0.62%. U.S. stocks fell on speculation the Fed may start to taper QE3 as soon as December, while European stocks gained as slower-than-expected inflation and record high unemployment in the Eurozone bolstered speculation the ECB may provide additional stimulus measures. Losses in bank stocks led Chinese stocks lower after China's four largest banks in Q3 posted a +3.5% y/y increase in nonperforming loans, the most in 3 years. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 +0.12%) is up +0.19%. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 -0.36%) is down -0.38%. Dec gold GCZ13 -0.98%) is down -1.03% at a 1-week low and Dec copper (HGZ13 -0.57%) is down -0.59%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.26%) is up +0.25% at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.56% at a 1-week low after the pace of inflation in the Eurozone slowed to its lowest level in 3-3/4 years and boosted speculation the ECB may cut interest rates further. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.09%) are up +6.5 ticks.

The Eurozone Oct CPI rose +0.7% y/y, less than expectations of +1.1% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 3-3/4 years. The Oct CPI core rose +0.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.0% and matched its record low from Jan 2010.

The Eurozone Sep unemployment rate was unch from Aug at a record high 12.2%, higher than expectations of 12.0%.

German Sep retail sales unexpectedly fell for a second month when they dropped -0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m, while on an annual basis retail sales rose +0.2% y/y, also weaker than expectations of +1.1% y/y.

The German Nov GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 7.0, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 7.2.

UK Oct nationwide house prices climbed +1.0% m/m and +5.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m and +5.1% y/y, with the +5.8% y/y increase the largest annual gain in 3-1/4 years.

The Japan Oct Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI rose +1.7 points from Sep to 54.2, the fastest pace of expansion in 3-1/3 years.

Japan Sep labor cash earnings unexpectedly rose +0.1% y/y, better than expectations of -0.4% y/y.

Japan Sep housing starts jumped +19.4% y/y to 1.044 million, higher than expectations of +12.1% to 983,000 and the most in 5 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a -12,000 decline to 338,000, adding to last week's decline of -12,000 to 350,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to fall by -4,000 to 2.870 million, adding to last week's decline of -8,000 to 2.874 million. Today's Oct Chicago PMI report is expected to show a -0.7 point decline to 55.0, giving back some of the +2.7 point increase to 55.7 seen in September. There are 34 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including Marathon Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Avon, Exxon, MasterCard, Time Warner, Discovery Communications, Newmont Mining, First Solar, Public Storage. Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include he 7th ICIS European Gas Conference on Wed, 7th Toronto Global Forum on Wed-Thu, and SelectUSA 2013 Investment Summit on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Cardinal Health (CAH -0.84%) reported Q1 EPS of 84 cents, weaker than consensus of 85 cents.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC +2.39%) reported Q3 EPS of 59 cents, below consensus of 63 cents.

ConocoPhillips (COP -1.47%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.47, better than consensus of $1.45.

Cigna (CI +0.46%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.89, well ahead of consensus of $1.62.

Marriott (MAR -0.92%) reported Q3 EPS of 52 cents, stronger than consensus of 45 cents.

Avis Budget (CAR -1.07%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.48, weaker than consensus of $1.52.

Jarden (JAH -1.21%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.04, better than consensus of $1.00.

Con-way (CNW -1.36%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 58 cents, weaker than consensus of 62 cents.

Owens-Illinois (OI -0.23%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 79 cents, higher than consensus of 77 cents.

MetLife (MET -0.41%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.34, below consensus of $1.36.

Hanesbrands (HBI -0.48%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.23, stronger than consensus of $1.13, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $3.75-$3.85 from $3.50-$3.65.

Arris (ARRS -0.60%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents.

Facebook (FB -0.79%) initially jumped 16% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 25 cents, stronger than consensus of 19 cents, but then fell back to a gain of 4% after it said that has seen a decrease in daily users among younger teens.

Molina Healthcare (MOH -1.78%) reported Q3 EPS of 16 cents, well below consensus of 31 cents, and then lowered its outlook for fiscal 2013 EPS to $1.15, well below consensus of $1.62.

Starbucks (SBUX +1.52%) fell 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 63 cents, better than consensus of 60 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.55-$2.65, below consensus of $2.67.

Expedia (EXPE -1.42%) surged 19% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.43, stronger than consensus of $1.35.

Kraft Foods (KRFT -0.63%) reported Q3 EPS of 83 cents, well above consensus of 69 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS outlook to $3.58 from $3.40.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.20%) this morning are down -4.50 points (-0.26%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday posted a record high early but gave up its advance and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) the Oct ADP employment of +130,000, less than expectations of +150,000 and the weakest figure in 6 months, and (2) long liquidation after the post-FOMC statement provided no clues as to when the Fed may begin tapering QE3. Closes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones -0.39%, Nasdaq 100 -0.19%.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.09%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday traded higher after the weak Oct ADP employment report, but T-notes fell back after the post-FOMC statement stated that policy members saw improvement in economic activity. Closes: TYZ3 -6.5, FVZ3 -2.75.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.26%) this morning is up +0.202 (+0.25%) at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0077 (-0.56%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33 (-0.33%). The dollar index on Wednesday posted a 2-week high and closed higher after the post-FOMC statement stated that policy members saw improvement in in economic activity, even though they said they will "await more evidence" before tapering QE3. Closes: Dollar index +0.170 (+0.21%), EUR/USD -0.00096 (-0.07%), USD/JPY +0.329 (+0.34%).

Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 +0.12%) this morning is up +18 cents (+0.19%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 -0.36%) is down -0.0100 (-0.38%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed mixed. Crude oil fell after (1) the EIA reported weekly crude stockpiles climbed +4.09 million bbls to a 4-month high of 383.9 million bbls, more than expectations of a +2.4 million bbl increase, and (2) inventories at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, rose +2.8 million bbls to a 2-month high of 35.5 million bbl. Gasoline closed higher after weekly EIA gasoline supplies fell -1.71 million bbls to an 11-month low of 213.8 million bbl., a bigger decline than expectations of -200,000 bbls. Closes: CLZ3 -1.43 (-1.46%), RBZ3 +0.0299 (+1.15%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/31/2013

US 0730 ET Oct Challenger job cuts, Sep +19.1% y/y
  0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -12,000 to 338,000, previous -12,000 to 350,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -4,000 to 2.870 million, previous -8,000 to 2.874 million.
  0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
  0945 ET Oct Chicago PMI expected -0.7 to 55.0, Sep +2.7 to 55.7.
  1500 ET Oct Cattle on Feed.
  1500 ET Sep USDA Cold Storage.
GER 0300 ET German Sep retail sales expected +0.4% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Aug -0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
  0300 ET German Nov GfK consumer confidence expected +0.1 to 7.2, Oct 7.1.
  0300 ET German Sep import price index expected +0.1% m/m and -2.8% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and -3.4% y/y.
JPN 0100 ET Japan Sep housing starts expected +12.1% to 983,000, Aug +8.8% y/y to 960,000.
  0100 ET Japan Sep construction orders, Aug +21.4% y/y.
  n/a BOJ announces interest rate decision.
UK 0300 ET UK Oct nationwide house prices expected +0.7% m/m and +5.1% y/y, Sep +0.9% m/m and +5.0% y/y.
EUR 0600 ET Eurozone Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 12.0%, Aug 12.0%. Oct CPI estimate expected +1.1% y/y and core +1.1% y/y, Sep +1.1% y/y and core +1.0% y/y.
CHI 2100 ET China Oct manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 51.2, Sep 51.1.
Click to enlarge

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/31/2013

 

 

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Mylan Inc/PA MYL US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.788
NiSource Inc NI US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.17
Marathon Petroleum Corp MPC US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.634
PPL Corp PPL US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.682
ConocoPhillips COP US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.453
Avon Products Inc AVP US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.188
Pinnacle West Capital Corp PNW US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 2.166
Quanta Services Inc PWR US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.434
Teradata Corp TDC US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.695
AmerisourceBergen Corp ABC US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.742
SCANA Corp SCG US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.92
Clorox Co/The CLX US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.005
TECO Energy Inc TE US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.326
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.765
MasterCard Inc MA US Bef-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 6.943
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The EL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.733
Cardinal Health Inc CAH US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.853
Cigna Corp CI US 6:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.621
Iron Mountain Inc IRM US 6:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.3
Time Warner Cable Inc TWC US 6:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.643
Discovery Communications Inc DISCA US 7:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.726
Invesco Ltd IVZ US 7:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.52
Owens-Illinois Inc OI US 8:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Harman International Industries Inc HAR US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.838
Perrigo Co PRGO US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.392
MetLife Inc MET US 8:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Discovery Communications Inc DISCA US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
PPL Corp PPL US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Teradata Corp TDC US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Cigna Corp CI US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Iron Mountain Inc IRM US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Time Warner Cable Inc TWC US 8:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Cardinal Health Inc CAH US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
NiSource Inc NI US 9:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Avon Products Inc AVP US 9:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
TECO Energy Inc TE US 9:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Invesco Ltd IVZ US 9:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
MasterCard Inc MA US 9:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Allstate Corp/The ALL US 9:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Quanta Services Inc PWR US 9:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Williams Cos Inc/The WMB US 9:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Mylan Inc/PA MYL US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Beam Inc BEAM US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Marathon Petroleum Corp MPC US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Marriott International Inc/DE MAR US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
CONSOL Energy Inc CNX US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Edwards Lifesciences Corp EW US 10:00 Analyst Meeting Y 2013  
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The EL US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Lincoln National Corp LNC US 10:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Equity Residential EQR US 11:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
AmerisourceBergen Corp ABC US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM US 11:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Harman International Industries Inc HAR US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Perrigo Co PRGO US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Pinnacle West Capital Corp PNW US 12:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Murphy Oil Corp MUR US 13:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
ConocoPhillips COP US 13:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Oracle Corp ORCL US 13:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2013  
Clorox Co/The CLX US 13:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
SCANA Corp SCG US 15:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
First Solar Inc FSLR US 16:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Republic Services Inc RSG US 17:00 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Fluor Corp FLR US 17:30 Q3 2013 Earnings Call Q3 2013  
Newmont Mining Corp NEM US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.321
Northeast Utilities NU US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.727
American International Group Inc AIG US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.96
Fluor Corp FLR US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.031
Southwestern Energy Co SWN US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.5
First Solar Inc FSLR US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.945
Apartment Investment & Management Co AIV US Aft-mkt Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.504
Beam Inc BEAM US   Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.58
Republic Services Inc RSG US   Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 0.493
Public Storage PSA US   Q3 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2013 1.891
Click to enlarge
Stocks: CAH, MPC, COP, CI, MAR, CAR, JAH, CNW, OI, MET, HBI, ARRS, FB, MOH, SBUX, EXPE, KHC, MYL, NI, PPL, AVP, PNW, PWR, TDC, ABC, SCG, CLX, TE, XOM, MA, EL, IRM, CHTR, DISCA, IVZ, HAR, PRGO, ALL, WMB, BEAM, CNX, EW, LNC, EQR, ORCL, FSLR, RSG