- Global stocks this morning are lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -1.33% and Dec S&Ps down -14.20 points. The euro and commodities weakened while Treasuries rose after rising yields and weak demand at a Spanish debt auction. Spain sold 3.16 billion euros of 12-month and 18-month bills, below the maximum target of 3.5 billions euros, while the average yield on the 12-month securities climbed to 5.022% from 3.608% at a previous sale of the debt last month. Contagion concerns to the European sovereign-debt crisis also undercut the euro and stocks after credit default swaps to insure the government debts of France and Italy rose to records. Mario Monti, Italy's prime minister-designate, is struggling to get political parties to join his Cabinet as he tries to reassure investors Italy can cut its 1.9 trillion-euro debt. Also undercutting stocks was the bigger-than-expected decline in German investor confidence after the Nov German ZEW economic sentiment fell -6.9 to -55.2, a 3-year low. The British pound fell to a 3-week low against the dollar after BOE Governor King said inflation could fall more sharply than expected due to spare capacity and "substantial risks" to the global economic outlook, which bolsters the outlook for additional BOE asset purchases.
- Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -0.72%, China -0.20%, Australia -0.44%, South Korea -0.83%, India -1.38%. Most Asian stocks fell on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis is spreading, which dampens the outlook for exporters' earnings. In its first formal evaluation of the Chinese banking system, the IMF said that "despite ongoing reform and financial strength, China confronts a steady buildup of financial sector vulnerabilities" and needs to expand oversight of banks as risks increase from off-balance sheet lending and a surge in property prices. Today's report sent Chinese financial stocks lower and underscores concern that slowing Chinese growth and a cooling property market may spark a jump in non-performing loans. Chinese stocks shook off early losses and closed little changed though, on speculation that easing inflation will allow policymakers to loosen monetary policy.
- December S&Ps this morning are trading down -14.20 points. The US stock market yesterday closed lower on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will worsen and drag the U.S. economy into recession: Dow Jones -0.61%, S&P 500 -0.96%, Nasdaq Composite -0.80%. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on concern the European debt crisis will worsen after Italy auctioned 5-year notes at the highest yield in 14 years and after credit-default swaps to insure Spain's government debt rose to a record high, (2) a research paper from the San Francisco Fed said that the odds of a U.S. recession in early 2012 climbed to over 50% as a result of Europe's debt crisis, and (3) weakness in energy producers after crude oil prices tumbled.
- Bullish factors included (1) optimism that strength in the Japanese economy will help sustain global economic growth after Q3 Japan GDP grew +6.0% annualized, the fastest pace in 1-1/2 years, and (2) speculation new leaders in Europe will take the necessary steps to stem the region's debt crisis after Prime Minister Papademos took over Greece's interim government and after former EU commissioner Monti agreed to be Italy's new prime minister.
- Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) fell 1.7% in European trading after the world's largest biotechnology firm was cut to "neutral" from "overweight" at Piper Jaffray.
- December 10-year T-notes this morning are up +10.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday shook off early weakness and strengthened due to increased safe-haven demand on concern that indebted nations of Europe will struggle to contain their sovereign-debt problems: TYZ11 +21.5, FVZ11 +9.5, EDH12 -2.0. Dec T-notes posted a 1-1/2 week low in overnight trade but erased their losses and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) concern the European sovereign debt crisis may worsen after Italy auctioned 5-year notes at the highest yield in 14 years and after credit-default swaps to insure Spain's government debt rose to a record high, (2) a research paper from the San Francisco Fed that stated the odds of a U.S. recession in early 2012 at over 50% as a result of Europe's debt crisis, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries as the stock market tumbled. A bearish factor was reduced safe-haven demand on speculation new leaders in Europe will take the necessary steps to stem the region's debt crisis after Prime Minister Papademos took over Greece's interim government and after former EU commissioner Monti agreed to be Italy's new prime minister.
- The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen -0.11 yen and the euro/dollar -0.92 cents. The dollar index yesterday finished higher on increased safe-haven demand as stocks faltered on concern European leaders will fail to contain the region's debt crisis: Dollar Index -0.832, USDJPY -0.469, EURUSD +0.01374. Bullish factors included (1) euro weakness after Der Spiegel magazine reported that German lawmakers are preparing for Greece's departure from the euro if the country's new government doesn't commit to reforms, (2) concern Italy will struggle to contain its debt crisis after it auctioned 3 billion euros of 5-year notes at 6.29%, the highest since 1997, (3) the euro negative report from Moody's Investors Service that said weak demand and "investors' cold reception" of a European Financial Stability Facility debt sale last week shows the limits of the fund's ability to support the region's government bond markets, and (4) concern on contagion of the European debt crisis to Spain after credit-default swaps to insure Spanish government debt surged 21 bp to a record 441 bp. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the yen which rallied to a 2-week high against the dollar after Q3 Japan GDP grew +6.0% annualized, the fastest pace in 1-1/2 years and (2) a research paper from the San Francisco Fed that stated the odds of a U.S. recession in early 2012 at over 50% as a result of Europe's debt crisis, which may prompt the Fed into keeping its overly easy monetary policy in place.
- Dec crude oil prices this morning are down -48 cents a barrel and Dec gasoline is +2.47 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled lower as the dollar strengthened and on concern the European debt crisis will drag on: CLZ11 -$0.85, RBZ11 -6.85. Dec crude posted 3-1/2 month high but erased its advance and closed lower while Dec gasoline posted a 1-1/4 month low. Bearish factors included (1) dollar strength that reduces investment demand for commodities, (2) the slump in the equity market, which curbs confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, and (3) concern the European debt crisis will linger after Italy auctioned 5-year notes at the highest yield since 1997, which deepens concern Italy will struggle to contain its debt crisis. Bullish factors included (1) Q3 Japan GDP expanding at its strongest pace in 1-1/2 years (+6.0% y/y), which signals strong fuel consumption in the world's third-biggest crude oil consumer and (2) comments from Algeria's oil minister who said crude prices of $100 to $110 a barrel are fair.
Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): WMT-Wal-Mart (BEST earnings consensus $0.97), HD-Home Depot (0.58), DELL-Dell (0.47), COV-Covidien PLC (1.05), TJX-TJX Cos. Inc. (1.05), A-Agilent Technologies (0.81), SPLS-Staples (0.47), ADSK-Autodesk (0.41), JEC-Jacobs Engineering Group (0.72), DKS-Dick's Sporting Goods (0.26), NRGY-Inergy LP (-0.22), CNQR-Concur Technologies (0.37), SKS-Saks (0.09), LRN-K12 Inc. (0.27), BOBE-Bob Evans Farms (0.53).
Global Financial Calendar
|0745 ET||ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.|
|0800 ET||Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on ?Discussion of the Fed?s Dual Mandate Responsibilities? at he Council of Foreign Relations.|
|0830 ET||Oct PPI expected -0.1% m/m and +6.3% y/y, Sep +0.8% m/m and +6.9% y/y. Oct PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y, Sep +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y.|
|0830 ET||Oct retail sales expected +0.3% and +0.2% less autos, Sep +1.1% and +0.6% less autos.|
|0830 ET||Nov Empire manufacturing index expected +6.5 to -2.0, Oct -0.3 to -8.5|
|0830 ET||St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on ?The economic outlook and monetary policy? to the CFA Society of St. Louis.|
|0855 ET||Redbook weekly retailer sales.|
|1000 ET||Sep business inventories expected +0.1%, Aug +0.5%.|
|1005 ET||San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economy to the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce/Greater Phoenix Leadership Group.|
|1100 ET||Chicago Fed President Charles Evans gives interview to CNBC.|
|1130 ET||Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.|
|1230 ET||Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on ?Too Big to Fail? to Columbia Business School?s Politics and Business Club.|
|0130 ET||Q3 French GDP, Q2 unchanged q/q and +1.7% y/y.|
|0245 ET||Q3 French non-farm payrolls, Q2 +0.2% q/q. Q3 wages, Q2 +0.6% q/q.|
|0200 ET||Q3 German GDP expected +0.5% q/q and +2.4% y/y, Q2 +0.1% q/q and +2.8% y/y.|
|0500 ET||Nov German ZEW survey economic sentiment expected -4.2 to -52.5, Oct -5.0 to -48.3. Nov ZEW survey current situation expected -6.4 to 32.0, Oct -5.2 to 38.4.|
|0430 ET||Oct U.K. CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +5.1% y/y, Sep +0.6% m/m and +5.2% y/y.|
|0430 ET||Oct U.K. core CPI expected +3.2% y/y, Sep +3.3% y/y.|
|0430 ET||Oct U.K. RPI expected +0.1% m/m and +5.5% y/y, Sep +0.8% m/m and +5.6% y/y.|
|0430 ET||Oct U.K. RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +5.7% y/y, Sep +5.7% y/y.|
|0830 ET||Sep Canada manufacturing sales expected +1.0% m/m, Aug +1.4% m/m.|
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