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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and attended... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 11/26 0 comments
    Nov 26, 2013 11:37 AM | about stocks: FLR, CBRL, BWS, PPL, TIF, HRL, NUAN, JCP, HI, DY, MU, CAR, RRC, CHS, SIG, DSW, JEC, EV, ADI, HPQ

    BARCHART MORING CALL

    Tuesday, November 26th, 2013View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.07%) this morning are down -0.04% and European stocks are down -0.13% ahead of U.S. reports on consumer confidence and house prices. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.67%, Hong Kong -0.01%, China -0.05%, Taiwan +0.74%, Australia +0.08%, Singapore -0.22%, South Korea +0.40%, India -0.87%. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF14 +0.24%) is up +0.26% and Jan gasoline (RBF14 -0.03%) is down -0.03%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.46%) is up +0.83%. Dec copper (HGZ13 -0.03%) is up +0.03%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.23%) is down -0.23%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21% after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the ECB doesn't see deeper disinflation. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.27%%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.15%) are up +5.5 ticks.

    The minutes of the Oct 31 BOJ policy meeting showed some members saw the risks to economic activity and prices as tilted to the downside on the whole. BOJ member Shirai proposed adding "attention should be paid to downside risks" to the bank's outlook as "there was a high degree of uncertainty regarding developments in overseas economies and households' employment and income situation."

    The Japan Oct corporate service price index rose +0.8% y/y, a smaller gain than expectations of +0.9% y/y, but still the biggest increase in 5-years.

    ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the ECB doesn't "see it as a very likely prospect that disinflation would deepen, would worsen in the Eurozone as growth recovers, which is our main scenario."

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's U.S. home price indexes are both expected to show solid increases to new 5-year highs, illustrating that U.S home prices continue to move higher despite headwinds from the 1 point increase in mortgage rates during mid-year and the recent sharp drop in U.S. consumer confidence thanks to the U.S. government shutdown. Today's Sep S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index is expected to show increases of +0.90% m/m and +13.00% y/y, which would be close to the August report of +0.93% m/m and +12.82% y/y. Meanwhile, the Sep FHFA house price index is expected to show a smaller increase of +0.4% m/m following the +0.3% m/m increase in August. Today's Nov U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a +1.3 point increase to 72.5, recovering a small portion of the -9.0 point plunge to 71.2 seen in October. Today's Nov Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a +3 point increase to 4, adding to the small +1 point increase to 1 seen in October. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion in 5-year T-notes. The Treasury will then conclude this week's $96 billion T-note package by selling $29 billion of 7-year T-notes on Wednesday.

    There are 5 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Tiffany (consensus $0.58), Hormel (0.54), Pall Corp (0.68), Analog Devices (0.58), HP (1.00). Equity conferences this week include the 12th Annual World Drug Manufacturing Summit 2013 on Tue-Wed.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Cracker Barrel (CBRL +1.07%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.22, better than consensus of $1.13.

    Brown Shoe (BWS +1.05%) raised guidance on fiscal 2013 adjusted EPS view to $1.36-$1.40, higher than consensus of $1.36.

    Pall Corp. (PLL -1.27%) reported Q1 EPS of 70 cents, higher than consensus of 68 cents.

    Tiffany (TIF -0.11%) reported Q3 EPS of 73 cents, well above consensus of 58 cents, and then raised guidance on its fuscal 2014 EPS view to to $3.65-$3.75 from $3.50-$3.60, better than consensus of $3.62.

    Hormel Foods (HRL -1.07%) reported Q4 EPS of 58 cents, better than consensus of 54 cents.

    Nuance (NUAN -2.32%) tumbled over 7% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $1.05-$1.15, well below consensus of $1.41.

    J.C. Penney (JCP +3.61%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after a regulatory filing showed that CEO Myron Ullman bought 112,000 shares of JCP stock on 11/22/13.

    Hillenbrand (HI +0.92%) reported Q4 EPS of 50 cents, below consensus of 52 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.00-$2.10, below consensus of $2.15.

    Dycom (DY -2.27%) reported Q1 EPS of 54 cents, well above consensus of 46 cents.

    Greenlight Capital discloses holding 23.02 million shares of Micron (MU -1.63%) in an amended 13F statement.

    Blue Ridge Capital reported a 6.17% passive stake in Avis Budget (CAR +1.33%) .

    MARKET COMMENTS

    Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.07%) this morning are down -0.75 of a point (-0.04%). The S&P 500 index on Monday posted a fresh all-time high but closed little changed. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) carry-over strength from a rally in European stocks on dovish comments from ECB Governing Council member Hansson who said the ECB stands ready to cut interest rates further, and (2) strength in airlines and transportation stocks after crude prices fell when Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program. Stocks fell back from their best levels after U.S. Oct pending home sales unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m, the fifth consecutive monthly decline and below expectations of a +1.0% m/m increase. Closes: S&P 500 -0.13%, Dow Jones +0.05%, Nasdaq 100 +0.16%.

    Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.15%) this morning are up +5.5 ticks. Dec T-notes Monday closed higher after Oct pending home sales unexpectedly declined, which bolstered speculation the Fed will maintain its pace of bond buying into next year. Gains were limited on reduced safe-haven demand after Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program and after the S&P 500 rose to a new record high. Closes: TYZ3 +3.00, FVZ3 +1.50.

    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.23%) this morning is down -0.184 (-0.23%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0029 (+0.21%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.27 (-0.27%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher. EUR/USD moved lower on dovish comments from ECB Governing Council member Hansson who said the ECB stands ready to cut interest rates further and is prepared to make the deposit rate negative. USD/JPY surged to a 5-3/4 month high after Iran's accord with the major world powers to curb its nuclear activities reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen. Closes: Dollar index +0.212 (+0.26%), EUR/USD -0.00414 (-0.31%), USD/JPY +0.394 (+0.39%).

    Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 +0.24%) this morning is up +24 cents (+0.26%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 -0.03%) is down -0.0007 (-0.03%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) reduced Middle East tensions after Iran agreed with the major world powers to curb its nuclear activities, and (2) the rally in the dollar index. Closes: CLF4 -0.75 (-0.79%), RBF4 -0.0375 (-1.38%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/26/2013

    US0830 ETOct building permits expected +0.4% to 930,000 (Sep postponed), Aug 926,000. Housing starts report will be delayed until Dec 18 due to government shutdown.
     0900 ETSep S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.90% m/m and +13.00% y/y, Aug +0.93% m/m and +12.82% y/y.
     0900 ETSep FHFA house price purchase only index expected +0.4% m/m, Aug +0.3% m/m. Q3 FHFA house price purchase only index expected +2.0% q/q, Q2 +2.10% q/q.
     1000 ETNov Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +3 to 4, Oct +1 to 1.
     1000 ETU.S. Nov consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +1.3 to 72.5, Oct -9.0 to 71.2.
     1300 ETTreasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
     1630 ETAPI weekly U.S. oil statistics.
    EUR0730 ETECB Council member Ives Mersch is keynote speaker at a conference in Frankfurt titled Economic and Legal Limits of Central Banking.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/26/2013

    Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
    Range Resources CorpRRC US1:00Annual General MeetingY 2013 
    Hormel Foods CorpHRL USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.542
    Tiffany & CoTIF USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.58
    Chico's FAS IncCHS USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.245
    Pall CorpPLL US7:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.68
    Signet Jewelers LtdSIG US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.423
    DSW IncDSW US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.58
    Jacobs Engineering Group IncJEC US8:00FY 2014 Guidance CallY 2014 
    Tiffany & CoTIF US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    Pall CorpPLL US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Chico's FAS IncCHS US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    DSW IncDSW US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    Hormel Foods CorpHRL US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Eaton Vance CorpEV US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.596
    Signet Jewelers LtdSIG US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    Analog Devices IncADI USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.582
    Hewlett-Packard CoHPQ USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.999

    Stocks: FLR, CBRL, BWS, PPL, TIF, HRL, NUAN, JCP, HI, DY, MU, CAR, RRC, CHS, SIG, DSW, JEC, EV, ADI, HPQ
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