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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and attended... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/4 0 comments
    Dec 4, 2013 11:42 AM | about stocks: EXPR, ROST, T, EBAY, USB, C, SHLD, JCP, UNFI, FAST, BF.B, UNT, MPC, YUM, XCEL, ORCL, GOOG, GES, SNPS, AVGO, HAR, WAG, AN, ACE, OCN, AEE

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Wednesday, December 4th, 2013View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.04%) this morning are up +0.01% and European stocks are down -0.06% ahead of this morning's Nov ADP employment change that may help gauge the outlook for Fed stimulus. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -2.17%, Hong Kong -0.76%, China +1.32%, Taiwan +0.30%, Australia +0.34%, Singapore -0.85%, South Korea -1.27%, India -0.70%. European stocks fell after Eurozone Oct retail sales unexpectedly declined, while China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 2-1/2 month high led by companies linked to Shanghai's free-trade zone after the PBOC said it plans to implement reform measures for the area within three months. The Australian dollar slid to a 3-month low against the dollar after Australia Q3 GDP rose +0.6% q/q, weaker than expectations of +0.7% q/q. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF14 +1.25%) is up +1.28% at a 5-week high on expectations for weekly EIA crude stockpiles to decline along with carry-over support from TransCanada's decision to start the southern portion of its Keystone XL pipeline next month, which could reduce inventories at Cushing, OK, delivery point for WTI crude futures. Jan gasoline (RBF14 -0.14%) is down -0.11%. Feb gold (GCG14 -0.64%) is down -0.65% at a 5-month low on expectations that the Fed is closer to cutting stimulus. March copper (HGH14 +0.24%) is up +0.21%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) is up +0.05%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is unch. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.17%) are down -7.5 ticks.

    The German Nov PMI services index was revised up to 55.7 from the originally reported 54.5 and matched the Jan 2013 level as the fastest pace of expansion in 2-1/3 years.

    Eurozone Oct retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m and -0.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of unch m/m and +1.0% y/y.

    Eurozone Q3 GDP was left unrevised at +0.1% q/q and -0.4% y/y.

    The Eurozone Nov PMI composite index was revised up to 51.7 from the originally reported 51.5.

    UK Nov PMI services fell -2.5 to 60.0, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.5 to 62.0.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's Nov ADP employment change is expected to improve to +170,000 from the poor report of +130,000 seen in October. Today's Oct new home sales report is expected to show a +2.1% increase to 430,000 from the August level of 421,000. Today's Nov ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show a -0.4 point decline to 55.0, reversing part of October's +1.0 point increase to 55.4. Today's Oct U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow mildly to -$40.0 billion from -$41.8 billion in September. There are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Brown-Forman (consensus $0.91), Synopsys (0.55), Guess (0.38), Avago Technologies (0.81).

    Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Citi Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue-Wed, Cowen and Company Ultimate Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, NASDAQ OMX International Investor Program on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Business Services Conference on Tue-Thu, Asia Derivatives Conference on Tue-Wed, Janney Industrials Conference on Thu.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Express (EXPR +0.94%) reported Q3 EPS of 23 cents, below consensus of 25 cents.

    Ross Stores (ROST -1.93%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.

    AT&T (T -0.17%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan.

    eBay (EBAY +1.13%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Evercore.

    U.S. Bancorp (USB -1.76%) was upgraded to 'Conviction Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman.

    Citigroup (C -0.93%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Conviction Buy' at Goldman.

    ComScore reported holiday season U.S. retail e-commerce spending from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, online buying from desktop computers totaled $5.3 billion, up 22% versus last year.

    ESL Partners lowered its stake in Sears Holdings (SHLD -7.72%) to 48.4% from 55.4%.

    J.C. Penney (JCP +1.00%) rose over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported November same-store-sales rose 10.1% y/y.

    United Natural Foods (UNFI -0.23%) reported Q1 EPS of 56 cents, better than consensus of 54 cents.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.04%) this morning are up +0.25 of a point (+0.01%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday fell to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower. Stocks declined on (1) profit-taking after the recent rally in the S&P 500 to a record high on Friday, (2) concern that recent strength in the U.S. economic data will prompt the Fed to taper QE3 sooner rather than later, and (3) the warning from Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, that the unprecedented cash added to the financial system by central banks around the world is raising the risk of a slide in global asset prices. Closes: S&P 500 -0.32%, Dow Jones -0.59%, Nasdaq 100 -0.05%.

    Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.17%) this morning are down -7.5 ticks. Mar T-notes on Tuesday closed higher as a slide in stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Gains were muted on expectations that the economy is strong enough to allow the Fed to cut back on its monthly asset purchases. Closes: TYH4 +7.50, FVH4 +5.00.

    The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is up +0.043 (+0.05%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0003 (-0.02%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is unch. The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower. Negative factors included (1) strength in the yen after USD/JPY fell back from a 6-1/4 month high as weak stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) short-covering in EUR/USD which rose ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting. Closes: Dollar index -0.30 (-0.37%), EUR/USD +0.00476 (+0.35%), USD/JPY -0.432 (-0.42%).

    Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 +1.25%) this morning is up +$1.23 a barrel (+1.28%) at a 5-week high and Jan gasoline (RBF14 -0.14%) is down -0.0029 (-0.11%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher with Jan crude at a 1-month high. Bullish factors included (1) TransCanada's announcement that it will begin operating the southern leg of its Keystone XL pipeline next month that will move 700,000 barrels a day of crude to Port Arthur, TX from Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, which will reduce Cushing's oil inventories, and (2) expectations for Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories to decline by -500,000 bbl, which would be the first decline since September. Closes: CLF4 +2.22 (+2.37%), RBF4 +0.0453 (+1.69%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/04/2013

    US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.3% with purchase sub-index -0.2% and refi sub-index +0.1%.
     0815 ETNov ADP employment change expected +170,000, Oct +130,000.
     0830 ETOct trade balance expected -$40.0 billion, Sep -$41.8 billion.
     1000 ETOct new home sales expected +2.1% to 430,000, Sep postponed, Aug +7.9% to 421,000.
     1000 ETNov ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.4 to 55.0, Oct +1.0 to 55.4.
     1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
     1400 ETFed Beige Book.
    GER0355 ETRevised German Nov PMI services, previous 54.5.
    EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Nov PMI composite, previous 51.5.
     0500 ETRevised Eurozone Q3 GDP, previous +0.1% q/q and -0.4% y/y.
     0500 ETEurozone Oct retail sales expected unch m/m and +1.0% y/y, Sep -0.6% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
    UK0430 ETUK Nov PMI services expected -0.5 o 62.0, Oct 62.5.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/04/2013

    Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
    Fastenal CoFAST US7:00November 2013 Sales and Revenue Release2013 
    Brown-Forman CorpBF/B US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.905
    Unit CorpUNT US8:30Investor DayY 2013 
    Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC US8:30Analyst DayY 2013 
    Yum! Brands IncYUM US8:45Investor & Analyst MeetingY 2013 
    Xcel Energy IncXEL US9:00Analyst MeetingY 2013 
    Brown-Forman CorpBF/B US10:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014 
    Oracle CorpORCL US10:00Court of Appeals Hearing on Oracle vs. Google Patent-Infringement Case  
    Google IncGOOG US10:00Court of Appeals Hearing on Oracle vs. Google Patent-Infringement Case  
    Guess? IncGES US16:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    Synopsys IncSNPS US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Avago Technologies LtdAVGO US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Synopsys IncSNPS USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.553
    Guess? IncGES USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.376
    Avago Technologies LtdAVGO USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.808
    Harman International Industries IncHAR US Annual General Meeting  
    Walgreen CoWAG US November 2013 Sales and Revenue Release2013 
    AutoNation IncAN US November 2013 Sales and Revenue Release2013 
    ACE LtdACE US Investor Meeting - Day 3Y 2013 
    Ocwen Financial CorpOCN US Analyst and Investor Meeting - Day 2Y 2013 
    Ameren CorpAEE US Investor Meeting - Day 1Y 2013 

    Stocks: EXPR, ROST, T, EBAY, USB, C, SHLD, JCP, UNFI, FAST, BF.B, UNT, MPC, YUM, XCEL, ORCL, GOOG, GES, SNPS, AVGO, HAR, WAG, AN, ACE, OCN, AEE
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