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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/10 0 comments
    Dec 10, 2013 1:33 PM | about stocks: FDX, CELG, BURL, AZO, TOL, HAR, VIVHY, MTN, CASY, PBY, GEF, HDS, LDOS, CAH, JW.A, AMTD, BRCM, HSC, PVH, TSO, FISV, THO, EFX

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Tuesday, December 10th, 2013View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.01%) this morning are up +0.10% and European stocks are up +0.19%. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.25%, Hong Kong -0.28%, China +0.10%, Taiwan -0.01%, Australia -0.02%, Singapore -1.03%, South Korea -0.39%, India -0.33%. Asian stocks were mostly lower after China Nov industrial production rose less than expected, while European stocks gained after UK industrial output rose as expected. Reduced European sovereign debt concerns were another positive for European shares after the yield spread between Spanish 10-year bonds and German bunds narrowed to as low as 220 bp, the least in 2-1/2 years. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Jan crude oil (CLF14 +1.28%) is up +1.19% at a 6-week high. Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.93%) is up +1.06%. Feb gold (GCG14 +1.17%) is up +0.96%. March copper (HGH14 +0.37%) is up +0.48% at a 2-week high after LME copper inventories tumbled -3,225 MT to a 9-3/4 month low of 402,050 MT. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.04% at a 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.04% at a 5-week high after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the Eurozone "is nowhere near deflation," which signals the ECB may not expand its stimulus measures. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.17%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.28%) are up +10 ticks.

    China Nov industrial production rose +10.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +10.1% y/y and the slowest pace in 4-months, although Nov retail sales climbed at a +13.7% y/y pace, better than expectations of +13.2% y/y and the fastest pace in 11-months.

    ECB Executive Board member Coeure said that while price gains are low, the Eurozone "is nowhere near deflation" and that inflation rates will come back to 2% "at some later point but not so long after" the ECB's forecast horizon of 2015.

    Japan Nov machine tool orders climbed +15.4% y/y, the fastest pace in 23-months.

    The Japan Oct tertiary industry index unexpectedly fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m.

    The Japan Q3 BSI large all industry business conditions fell back to 8.3 from 12.0 in Q3 and the Q4 BSI large manufacturing business conditions dropped to 9.7 from 15.2 in Q3.

    Japan Nov consumer confidence rose +1.3 to 42.5, a smaller increase than expectations of +1.8 to 43.0.

    UK Oct industrial production rose +0.4% m/m and +3.2% y/y, right on expectations, and Oct manufacturing production rose +0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.9% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    The Treasury today will kick off this week's $64 billion auction package by selling $30 billion in 3-year T-notes. The Treasury will then sell $21 billion of reopened 10-year T-notes on Wednesday and $13 billion of opened 30-year bonds on Thursday. There are 7 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Toll Brothers (consensus $0.43), Greif (0.83), HD Supply (0.36), Leidos Holdings (0.40), Autozone (6.28), John Wiley (0.73), H&R Block (-0.37).

    Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: UBS Global Media and Communications Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James Systems Semiconductors, Software & Supply Chain Conference on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Enterprise Technology Summit on Tue,
    Jefferies Storage Summit on Tue, BMO Capital MarketsTechnology & Digital Media Conference on Tue, Raymond James Supply Chain Conference on Tue, Oppenheimer Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Technology and Digital Media Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Capital Markets Technology, Media & Entertainment Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Energy Symposium on Wed, Wells Fargo Securities Pipeline, MLP, and Energy Symposium on Wed, Capital One Southcoast Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Information and IT Services Forum on Thu, Barclays Select Series Information and IT Series Forum Conference on Thu, and AHIP Exchange Conference 2013 on Thu.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Citigroup keeps a 'Buy' rating on FedEx (FDX +0.30%) and raised its price target on the stock to $170 from $140.

    Celgene (CELG +2.15%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.

    Burlington Stores (BURL +0.29%) reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -5 cents, smaller than consensus of -6 cents.

    AutoZone (AZO -0.49%) reported Q1 EPS of $6.29, stronger than consensus of $6.27.

    Toll Brothers (TOL +2.10%) reported Q4 EPS of 54 cents, better than consensus of 43 cents

    Harman (HAR -0.36%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo who also raised their price target on the stock to $95-$100 from $74-$78.

    Vivendi (VIVHY -0.31%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.

    Vail Resorts (MTN +1.44%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -$2.04, a bigger loss than consensus of -$1.91.

    Casey's General Stores (CASY -1.43%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.06, below consensus of $1.14.

    Pep Boys (PBY -0.22%) slumped over 12% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 2 cents, well below consensus of 14 cents.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.01%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.10%). The S&P 500 index on Monday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher on carry-over support from Friday's stronger-than-expected Nov non-farm payrolls report, which bolstered speculation the economy is strong enough to handle QE3 tapering. Stocks also received a boost on signs of strength in the global economy after China Nov exports rose +12.7% y/y, more than expectations of +7.0% y/y and the most in 7 months. Closes: S&P 500 +0.18%, Dow Jones +0.03%, Nasdaq 100 +0.34%.

    Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.28%) this morning are up +10 ticks. Mar T-notes on Monday closed higher on signs the Fed may limit its reduction of bond purchases after St. Louis Fed President Bullard said any reduction in bond buying should be modest to account for low inflation. Bullard also said "should inflation not return toward the Fed's 2% target, the FOMC could pause tapering at subsequent meetings." Closes: TYH4 +4.00, FVH4 +1.25.

    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.033 (-0.04%) at a fresh 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0006 (+0.04%) at a 5-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.18 (-0.17%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 5-week low and closed lower as strength in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the dollar. EUR/USD posted a 5-week high on signs of stronger economic growth in Europe after German Oct exports unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m, better than expectations of a -0.5% m/m decline. Closes: Dollar index -0.181 (-0.23%), EUR/USD +0.00356 (+0.26%), USD/JPY +0.344 (+0.33%).

    Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 +1.28%) this morning is up +$1.16 a barrel (+1.19%) at a 6-week high and Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.93%) is up +2.84 cents a gallon (+1.06%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower. Crude prices fell on concern about global demand after German Oct industrial production unexpectedly declined. Gasoline was dragged lower on signs that U.S. refiners will continue to boost gasoline output after the utilization rate for U.S. refiners in the week ended Nov 29 rose to 92.4%, the highest seasonal level in 9 years. Closes: CLF4 -0.31 (-0.03%), RBF4 -0.0571 (-2.09%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/10/2013

    US1000 ETOct wholesale inventories expected +0.3%, Sep +0.4%. Oct wholesale trade sales expected +0.2%, Sep +0.6%.
     1200 ETDec WASDE crop production report.
     1300 ETTreasury auctions $30 billion 3-year T-notes.
     1630 ETAPI weekly U.S. oil statistics.
    JPN0000 ETJapan Nov consumer confidence index expected +2.3 to 43.4, Oct 41.2.
     0100 ETJapan Nov machine tool orders, Oct +8.4% y/y
     1850 ETJapan Oct machine orders expected +0.7% m/m and +15.0% y/y, Sep -2.1% m/m and +11.4% y/y.
     1850 ETJapan Nov domestic CGPI expected +0.1% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Oct -0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
    CHI0030 ETChina Nov industrial production expected +10.1% y/y, Oct +10.3% y/y.
     0030 ETChina Nov retail sales expected +13.2% y/y, Oct +13.3% y/y.
    UK0430 ETUK Oct industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and +3.2% y/y, Sep +0.9% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
     0430 ETUK Oct manufacturing production expected +0.4% m/m and +2.9% y/y, Sep +1.2% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
    EUR0700 ETECB President Mario Draghi speaks at a conference in Rome.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/10/2013

    Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
    Toll Brothers IncTOL USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.426
    Greif IncGEF USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.826
    HD Supply Holdings IncHDS US6:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.361
    Leidos Holdings IncLDOS US6:01Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.403
    AutoZone IncAZO US7:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20146.277
    Cardinal Health IncCAH US8:00Investor and Analyst DayY 2013 
    John Wiley & Sons IncJW/A US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.725
    Leidos Holdings IncLDOS US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    HD Supply Holdings IncHDS US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    TD Ameritrade Holding CorpAMTD US8:30November 2013 Sales and Revenue Release2013 
    Broadcom CorpBRCM US8:30Analyst DayY 2013 
    Harsco CorpHSC US9:00Investor DayY 2013 
    PVH CorpPVH US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    Tesoro CorpTSO US9:00Analyst and Investor MeetingY 2013 
    Fiserv IncFISV US9:30Investor ConferenceY 2013 
    AutoZone IncAZO US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    John Wiley & Sons IncJW/A US10:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014 
    Thor Industries IncTHO US13:00Annual General MeetingY 2013 
    Toll Brothers IncTOL US14:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Greif IncGEF US15:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    H&R Block IncHRB USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2014-0.37
    Equifax IncEFX US Investor Meeting - Los AngelesY 2013 

    Stocks: FDX, CELG, BURL, AZO, TOL, HAR, VIVHY, MTN, CASY, PBY, GEF, HDS, LDOS, CAH, JW.A, AMTD, BRCM, HSC, PVH, TSO, FISV, THO, EFX
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