Wednesday, January 15th, 2014View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.20%) this morning are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.69% after the World Bank raised its global growth forecast. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +2.50%, Hong Kong +0.49%, China -0.18%, Taiwan +0.64%, Australia +0.64%, Singapore +0.62%, South Korea +0.30%, India +1.22%. Chinese stocks closed lower after China Dec new yuan loans rose at the slowest pace in a year and after the World Bank cut its China GDP estimate for this year. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG14 +0.54%) is up +0.54%. Feb gasoline (RBG14 -0.37%) is down -0.42%. Feb gold (GCG14 -0.65%)is down -0.57%. March copper (HGH14 -0.27%) is down -0.30%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed, although Feb cattle is up +0.09% at an all-time high. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.32%) is up +0.28%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.44% after a government report showed German growth slowed last year. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.05%) are up +0.5 of a tick.
The World Bank raised its 2014 global GDP estimate to 3.2%, up from a June projection of 3.0% and stronger than the 2.4% increase in 2013. The bank lowered its 2014 China GDP forecast to 7.7% from 8.0% forecast in Jun, but raised its Eurozone GDP estimate to 1.1% from 0.9%, and kept its U.S. GDP estimate at 2.8% and its projection for Japan GDP at 1.4%.
German 2013 GDP growth expanded at a +0.4% y/y annualized pace, weaker than expectations of +0.5% y/y annualized and the slowest pace of growth in 4-years.
China Dec new yuan loans were 482.5 billion yuan, less than expectations of 570.0 billion yuan and the lowest in a year.
Japan Dec machine tool orders jumped +28.0% y/y, the most in 2-1/3 years.
The Eurozone Nov trade balance (nsa) widened to a 17.1 billion euro surplus from a revised 16.8 billion euro surplus in Oct.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's Jan Empire manufacturing index is expected to show a +2.52 point increase to 3.50, adding to the small +3.19 point increase to 0.98 seen in December. Today's Dec PPI report is expected to rise to +1.1% y/y from +0.7% in November. Meanwhile, the Dec core PPI is expected to be unchanged from November at +1.3% y/y. The Fed today will release its Beige Book survey of the economy in preparation for the upcoming FOMC meeting in two weeks (Jan 28-29). The Fed's last Beige Book report, released on Dec 4, found that the U.S. economy "continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace from early October through mid-November."
There are four of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Bank of America (consensus $0.27), Fastenal (0.34), Kinder Morgan (0.34), CSX (0.43). Equity Conferences during the remainder of this week include: Biotech Showcase Investor Conference on Mon-Wed, J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Mon-Thu, BMO Unconventional Resource Conference on Tue, Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference on Tue-Wed.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Bank of America (BAC +2.07%) reported Q4 EPS of 46 cents, well ahead of consensus of 27 cents.
Fastenal (FAST +1.64%) reported Q4 EPS of 33 cents, below consensus of 34 cents.
Airgas (ARG +1.23%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman.
Intel (INTC +3.96%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
Dick's Sporting (DKS +1.82%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
PetSmart (PETM +0.48%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Sanofi reported a 16.24% stake in Regeneron (REGN +11.78%) .
Chelsea Therapeutics (CHTP -8.00%) exploded higher by more than 150% in after-hours trading after it announced that the FDA voted 16-1 to recommend approval of Northera for the treatment of symptomatic neurogenic orthostatic hypotension.
Wells Fargo raised its price target range for Allergan (AGN +5.94%) to $132-$133 from $121-$122 and kept its 'Outperform' rating on the stock after Allergan received its first new Restasis patent and a district court found that Lumigan patents are valid.
Credit Suisse reported a 6.9% passive stake in Beazer Homes (BZH +1.03%) .
Watsco (WSO +2.17%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman.
General Motors (GM +1.11%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it announced a 30 cents per share quarterly common stock dividend, its first dividend since coming out of bankruptcy.
Credit Suisse reported a 5.36% passive stake in Chimera (CIM unch) .
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.20%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.20%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday recovered nearly all of Monday's losses on reduced economic concerns after U.S. Dec retail sales rose +0.2% and +0.7% ex-autos, better than expectations of +0.1% and +0.4% ex-autos. Stocks also found carry-over support from gains in European equities after Eurozone Nov industrial production rose +1.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.4% m/m, and after ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said "there is potential on the upside" for this year's GDP in the Eurozone and that economic growth may exceed expectations. Closes: S&P 500 +1.08%, Dow Jones +0.71%, Nasdaq 100 +1.93%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.05%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed lower after the stronger-than-expected Dec U.S. retail sales boosted expectations for the Fed to continue to taper its monthly bond purchases. Closes: TYH4 -13.0, FVH4 -8.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.32%) this morning is up +0.226 (+0.28%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0060 (-0.44%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02 (+0.02%). The dollar index on Tuesday rebounded from a 1-1/2 week low and closed higher after stronger-than-expected U.S. Dec retail sales bolstered the outlook for the Fed to continue to taper its dollar-negative QE3 program. EUR/USD posted a 1-1/2 week high on the stronger-than-expected Eurozone Nov industrial production report along with upbeat comments from ECB Governing Council member Nowotny. USD/JPY rose as the yen weakened after the Japan Nov current account balance widened to a record. Closes: Dollar index +0.136 (+0.17%), EUR/USD +0.0008 (+0.06%), USD/JPY +1.218 (+1.18%).
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG14 +0.54%) this morning is up +50 cents (+0.54%) and Feb gasoline (RBG14 -0.37%) is down -0.0109 (-0.42%). Feb crude oil prices and Feb gasoline prices on Tuesday settled mixed. Feb crude gained after stronger-than-expected U.S. Dec retail sales bolstered the economic outlook and the prospects for increased energy demand. Feb gasoline tumbled to a 2-month low on expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA gasoline inventories will climb because last week's severe cold weather kept consumers from driving and reduced gasoline demand. Closes: CLG4 +0.79 (+0.86%), RBG4 -0.0117 (-0.44%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/15/2014
|US||0700 ET||Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +2.6% with purchase sub-index -0.5% and refi sub-index +4.6%.|
|0830 ET||Jan Empire manufacturing index expected +2.52 to 3.50, Dec +3.19 to 0.98.|
|0830 ET||Dec PPI expected +0.4% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Nov -0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y. Dec PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y.|
|1030 ET||EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.|
|1250 ET||Chicago Fed President Charles Evans discusses current economic conditions and monetary policy at the Corridor Economic Forecast Luncheon in Coralville, Iowa.|
|1400 ET||Fed releases Beige Book.|
|1745 ET||Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook to the CFA Society of Atlanta.|
|JPN||0100 ET||Japan Dec machine tool orders, Nov +15.4% y/y.|
|1850 ET||Japan Nov tertiary industry index expected +0.7% m/m, Oct -0.7% m/m.|
|1850 ET||Japan Nov machine orders expected +1.1% m/m and +11.7% y/y, Oct +0.6% m/m and +17.8% y/y.|
|1850 ET||Japan Dec domestic CGPI expected +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +2.7% y/y.|
|EUR||0500 ET||Eurozone Nov trade balance expected +16.5 billion euros (nsa), Oct +17.2 billion euros (nsa).|
|0805 ET||ECB Council member Yves Mersch peaks on a panel discussion titled The Eurozone in Five Years at an event in Germany.|
|UK||1901 ET||UK Dec RICS house price balance expected 60%, Nov 58%.|
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/15/2014
|Company Name||Ticker||Time||Event Description||Period||Estimate|
|JPMorgan Chase & Co||JPM US||6:59||Q4 2013 Earnings Release||Q4 2013||1.368|
|Wells Fargo & Co||WFC US||8:00||Q4 2013 Earnings Release||Q4 2013||0.983|
|JPMorgan Chase & Co||JPM US||8:30||Q4 2013 Earnings Call||Q4 2013|
|Beam Inc||BEAM US||Suntory Holdings Acquires Beam|
|GameStop Corp||GME US||December 2013 Sales and Revenue Release||2013|