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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/30 0 comments
    Jan 30, 2014 10:10 AM | about stocks: COP, HOG, TWC, WHR, AN, VIAB, RTN, IGT, GOOG, LNVGY, LVS, FLEX, LRCX, TSCO, FB, HBI, SPB, QCOM, XEL, ARG, NOC, OXY, PHM, BLL, LLL, PBI, BMS, V, SHW, TE, DGX, ADT, BTUUQ, HP, HSY, CELG, TMO, ALXN, MO, CL, DOV, CAH, MMM, ZBH, CAM, IVZ, UPS, XOM, HAR, BEN, BRC

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Thursday, January 30th, 2014View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.23%) this morning are up +0.34% and European stocks are down -0.08% as concern over emerging-markets offsets stronger-than-expected Eurozone economic data. Worries over growth in China along with Fed tapering concerns have sent global stocks down by -3.3% since Jan 23 when a gauge of manufacturing activity in China contracted for the first time in 6-months. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -2.45%, Hong Kong -0.48%, China -1.14%, Taiwan and South Korea closed for holiday, Australia -0.78%, Singapore -0.68%, India -0.72%. Losses in European stocks were limited after Eurozone Jan economic confidence climbed to a 2-1/2 year high and after the German Jan unemployment rate matched a two-decade low. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +0.47%) is up +0.37% at a 4-week high as the severe cold-snap to blanket much of the U.S. has boosted demand for heating fuels. Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.11%) is up +0.03%. Feb gold (GCG14 -0.56%) is down -0.63%. March copper (HGH14 -0.17%) is down -0.20% at a 1-1/2 month low on Chinese demand concerns after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity contracted more than first reported. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.48%) is up +0.43%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.46%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.20%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.20%) are down -7.5 ticks.

    German Jan unemployment fell -28,000, a bigger decline than expectations of -5,000 and the largest drop in 2-1/3 years. The Jan unemployment rate was unch at 6.8% from a downward revised 6.8% in Dec, better than expectations of unch at 6.9% and matched the lowest rate since data for a unified Germany began in 1991.

    Eurozone Jan economic confidence rose +0.5 to 100.9 from an upward revised 100.4 in Dec, slightly less than expectations of +1.0 to 101.0 but still the highest in 2-1/2 years. The Jan business climate indicator unexpectedly fell -0.01 to 0.19 from a downward revised 0.20 in Dec, weaker than expectations of a +0.8 increase to 0.35.

    UK Dec mortgage approvals rose 71,600, less than expectations of 72,900 but still the most in 5-3/4 years.

    Japan Dec retail sales unexpectedly fell -1.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m, and on an annual basis climbed +2.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.9% y/y.

    The China Jan HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 49.5 from the originally reported 49.6, the first contraction in 6-months.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +4,000 to 330,000, adding to last week's small increase of +1,000 to 326,000. Weekly continuing claims are expected to show a -56,000 decline to 3.000 million, more than reversing last week's +34,000 increase to 3.056 million. Today's Q4 GDP report is expected to be relatively strong at +3.2% (q/q annualized), although that would be down from +4.1% in Q3. Today's Dec pending home sales report is expected to show a decline of -0.3% m/m and -0.3% y/y following the Nov report of +0.2% m/m and -4.0% y/y. The Treasury today will conclude this week's $111 billion T-note package by selling $35 billion in 5-year T-notes and $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.

    There are 56 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Visa (consensus $2.16), Amazon (0.69), Google (12.26), UPS (1.25), Exxon Mobil (1.91), ConocoPhillips ($1.32), PulteGroup (0.45), Viacom (1.16), Time Warner (1.73), and Raytheon (1.35). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Cloudcast'14 on Thu.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    ConocoPhillips (COP -0.59%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.40, stronger than consensus of $1.32.

    Harley-Davidson (HOG -1.34%) reported Q4 EPS of 34 cents, higher than consensus of 33 cents.

    Time Warner Cable (TWC -1.20%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.82, higher than consensus of $1.73.

    Whirlpool (WHR -1.58%) reported Q4 EPS of $2.97, weaker than consensus of $3.03.

    AutoNation (AN -0.80%) reported Q4 EPS of 83 cents, better than consensus of 76 cents.

    Viacom (VIAB -1.57%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.20, higher than consensus of $1.16.

    Raytheon (RTN -0.65%) was awarded a $107.92 million modification to a government contract for work on the Patriot missile system.

    Gates Capital reported a 5% passive stake in International Game Technology (IGT -1.35%) .

    Google (GOOG -1.43%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it announced that Lenovo Group (LNVGY +3.57%) bought its Motorola handset unit for $2.91 billion.

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS -1.77%) reported Q4 EPS of 87 cents, stronger than consensus of 85 cents.

    Flextronics (FLEX +0.52%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 26 cents, higher than consensus of 23 cents.

    Lam Research (LRCX +0.06%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.10, stronger than consensus of $1.03.

    Tractor Supply (TSCO -2.38%) reported Q4 EPS of 68 cents, better than consensus of 65 cents.

    Facebook (FB -2.92%) jumped 13% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 31 cents, higher than consensus of 27 cents.

    Hanesbrands (HBI +1.40%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 98 cents, better than consensus of 90 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $4.60-$4.80, much better than consensus of $4.48.

    Spectrum Brands (SPB -1.61%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.09, well ahead of consensus of 99 cents.

    Qualcomm (QCOM -1.21%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.26, stronger than consensus of $1.18, but then lowered guidance on Q2 adjusted EPS to $1.15-$1.25, below consensus of $1.26.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.23%) this morning are up +6.00 points (+0.34%). The S&P 500 on Wednesday fell to a 1-1/4 month low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) concern that weakness in emerging-market economies may crimp global economic growth after a hike in interest rates by the central banks of Turkey and South Africa failed to instill confidence in emerging-market currencies, and (2) the Fed's $10 billion per month QE3 tapering action. Closes: S&P 500 -1.02%, Dow Jones -1.19%, Nasdaq 100 -0.12%.

    Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.20%) this morning are down -7.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday jumped to a 2-month high on increased safe-haven demand after stocks slumped on concern that the weakness in emerging-market currencies will slow global economic growth. T-notes held gains even after the Fed cut QE3 by $10 billion. Closes: TYH4 +17.5, FVH4 +9.75.

    The dollar index (DXY00 +0.48%) this morning is up +0.350 (+0.43%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0063 (-0.46%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.20 (+0.20%). The dollar index on Wednesday settled little changed even after the Fed tapered QE3 by $10 billion. EUR/USD was undercut by comments from ECB Governing Council member Noyer who said further euro appreciation "would be negative." USD/JPY fell back as a slide in stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen. Closes: Dollar index -0.063 (-0.08%), EUR/USD -0.00076 (-0.06%), USD/JPY -0.66 (-0.64%).

    Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +0.47%) this morning is up +36 cents (+0.37%) at a 4-week high and Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.11%) is up +0.0009 (+0.03%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed. Crude closed lower after weekly EIA inventory data showed crude supplies jumped +6.421 million bbl, more than double expectations for a +2.560 million bbl increase. Gasoline closed higher on concern the sub-zero cold to grip much of the U.S. will lead to reduced gasoline production after output at the 182,200 bpd PBF refinery in Delaware was slowed due to a frozen control switch. Closes: CLH4 -0.05 (-0.05%), RBH4 +0.0310 (+1.18%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/30/2014

    US 0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 330,000, previous +1,000 to 326,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -56,000 to 3.000 million, previous +34,000 to 3.056 million.
      0830 ET Q4 GDP expected +3.2% (q/q annualized), Q3 +4.1%. Q4 personal consumption expected +3.7%, Q3 +2.0%. Q4 GDP price index expected +1.2%, Q3 +2.0%. Q4 core PCE expected +1.1% q/q, Q3 +1.4% q/q.
      0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
      1000 ET Dec pending home sales expected -0.3% m/m and -0.3% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and -4.0% y/y.
      1130 ET Treasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
      1300 ET Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
    GER 0355 ET German Jan unemployment change expected -5,000, Dec -15,000. Jan unemployment rate expected unch at 6.9%, Dec 6.9%.
      0800 ET German Jan CPI (EU harmonized) expected -0.6% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Dec +0.5% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
    UK 0430 ET UK Dec net consumer credit expected +0.7 billion pounds, Nov +0.6 billion pounds.
      0430 ET UK Dec mortgage approvals expected 72,900, Nov 70,800.
      0430 ET UK Dec M4 money supply, Nov unch m/m and +2.7% y/y.
      1905 ET UK Jan GfK consumer confidence expected +1 to -12, Dec -13.
    EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Jan business climate indicator expected +0.08 to 0.35, Dec +0.27. Jan economic confidence expected +1.0 to 101.0, Dec 100.0.
      0500 ET Revised Eurozone Jan consumer confidence.
    JPN 1815 ET Japan Jan Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Dec 55.2.
      1830 ET Japan Dec overall household spending expected +1.1% y/y, Nov +0.2% y/y.
      1830 ET Japan Dec jobless rate expected -0.1 to 3.9%, Nov 4.0%. Dec job-to-applicant ratio expected 1.01, Nov 1.00.
      1830 ET Japan Dec national CPI expected +1.5% y/y, Nov +1.5% y/y. Dec national CPI ex-fresh food expected +1.2% y/y, Nov +1.2% y/y. Dec national CPI ex food & energy expected +0.7% y/y, Nov +0.6% y/y.
      1830 ET Japan Jan Tokyo CPI expected +0.8% y/y, Dec +0.9% y/y. Japan Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.7% y/y, Dec +0.7% y/y. Jan Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +0.4% y/y, Dec +0.3% y/y.
      1850 ET Japan Dec industrial production expected +1.3% m/m and +7.3% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +5.0% y/y.
      2300 ET Japan Dec vehicle production, Nov +10.2% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/30/2014

    Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
    Xcel Energy Inc XEL US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.287
    Airgas Inc ARG US Bef-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.178
    Northrop Grumman Corp NOC US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.941
    Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.669
    ConocoPhillips COP US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.321
    PulteGroup Inc PHM US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.452
    Ball Corp BLL US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.725
    L-3 Communications Holdings Inc LLL US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.974
    Pitney Bowes Inc PBI US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.454
    Bemis Co Inc BMS US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.537
    Visa Inc V US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 2.164
    Viacom Inc VIAB US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.156
    Sherwin-Williams Co/The SHW US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.286
    Prologis Inc PLD US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.423
    TECO Energy Inc TE US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.203
    Quest Diagnostics Inc DGX US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.931
    AutoNation Inc AN US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.762
    ADT Corp/The ADT US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.49
    Harley-Davidson Inc HOG US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.331
    Peabody Energy Corp BTU US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 -0.1
    Helmerich & Payne Inc HP US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.463
    Hershey Co/The HSY US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.859
    Celgene Corp CELG US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.51
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO US 6:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.375
    Time Warner Cable Inc TWC US 6:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.73
    Whirlpool Corp WHR US 6:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 3.029
    Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc ALXN US 6:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.841
    Eli Lilly & Co LLY US 6:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.733
    Altria Group Inc MO US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.582
    Raytheon Co RTN US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.345
    Colgate-Palmolive Co CL US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.739
    Dover Corp DOV US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.274
    Cardinal Health Inc CAH US 7:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.841
    3M Co MMM US 7:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.615
    Zimmer Holdings Inc ZMH US 7:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.62
    Cameron International Corp CAM US 7:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.958
    Invesco Ltd IVZ US 7:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.566
    United Parcel Service Inc UPS US 7:45 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.25
    Zimmer Holdings Inc ZMH US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Pitney Bowes Inc PBI US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Time Warner Cable Inc TWC US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Exxon Mobil Corp XOM US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.908
    Harman International Industries Inc HAR US 8:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.942
    PulteGroup Inc PHM US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Visa Inc V US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Viacom Inc VIAB US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    CMS Energy Corp CMS US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.369
    Quest Diagnostics Inc DGX US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    ADT Corp/The ADT US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Franklin Resources Inc BEN US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.931
    Franklin Resources Inc BEN US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call - Pre-Recorded C1 2014  
    Cardinal Health Inc CAH US 8:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
    Hershey Co/The HSY US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    United Parcel Service Inc UPS US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    3M Co MMM US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Altria Group Inc MO US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Raytheon Co RTN US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    CMS Energy Corp CMS US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Invesco Ltd IVZ US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Harley-Davidson Inc HOG US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Celgene Corp CELG US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Eli Lilly & Co LLY US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Cameron International Corp CAM US 9:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Broadcom Corp BRCM US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.575
    Newmont Mining Corp NEM US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Sales and Revenue Release - Production Results Q4 2013  
    Microchip Technology Inc MCHP US Aft-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.608
    Google Inc GOOG US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 12.257
    Chubb Corp/The CB US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 2.035
    Consolidated Edison Inc ED US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.654
    Amazon.com Inc AMZN US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.691
    PerkinElmer Inc PKI US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.701
    Wynn Resorts Ltd WYNN US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.745
    Stocks: COP, HOG, TWC, WHR, AN, VIAB, RTN, IGT, GOOG, LNVGY, LVS, FLEX, LRCX, TSCO, FB, HBI, SPB, QCOM, XEL, ARG, NOC, OXY, PHM, BLL, LLL, PBI, BMS, V, SHW, TE, DGX, ADT, BTUUQ, HP, HSY, CELG, TMO, ALXN, MO, CL, DOV, CAH, MMM, ZBH, CAM, IVZ, UPS, XOM, HAR, BEN, BRC
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