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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 0 comments
    Jan 31, 2014 9:16 AM | about stocks: LM, AON, WY, TESO, EMN, CMTL, MWEB, CSC, SYA, PAYX, BCR, MCK, AVGO, WYNN, AMZN, GOOG, MJN, NWL, LYB, ABBV, TYC, MA, NOV, TSN, SPG, MAT, CNX, D, MS, AGN, PCAR, AVY, CVX

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Friday, January 31st, 2014View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.67%) this morning are down -0.84% and European stocks are down -1.72%% on deflation fears in Europe after the Eurozone Jan CPI estimate rose at the slowest pace in 4-years. Another negative for European stocks was the unexpected drop in German Dec retail sales by the most in nearly 3-years. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.62%, Australia +0.04% and India +0.08%. Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea were closed for holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rallied early after the Japan Dec jobless rate fell to a 6-1/3 year low, but stocks reversed and fell to the lowest in 2-1/2 months after signs of faster-than-expected inflation reduced the case for additional stimulus from the BOJ. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 -0.84%) is down -0.45%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.83%) is down -0.18%. Feb gold (GCG14 +0.55%) is up +0.46%. March copper (HGH14 -0.56%) is down -0.54% at a 1-3/4 month low. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.04% at a 1-week low after Eurozone inflation slowed more than expected, which may pressure the ECB to boost its stimulus measures. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.50%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.24%) are up +11 ticks at a 2-1/2 month high on increased safe-haven demand from the slide in stocks.

    The Eurozone Jan CPI estimate rose +0.7% y/y, a smaller increase than expectations of +0.9% y/y and matched October's increase as the smallest in 4-years. The Jan core CPI rose +0.8% y/y, right on expectations.

    The Eurozone Dec unemployment rate held steady at 12.0% from a downward revised 12.0% in Nov, originally reported at 12.1%, better than expectations of unch at 12.1%.

    German Dec retail sales unexpectedly fell -2.5% m/m, the biggest monthly drop in 2-3/4 years and weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis, Dec retail sales slipped -2.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.9% y/y and the biggest decline in 6-months.

    UK Jan GfK consumer confidence rose +6 to -7, better than expectations of +1 to -12 and the highest in 6-1/3 years.

    Japan Dec national CPI rose +1.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.5% y/y and the highest in 5-years. Dec national CPI ex-fresh food rose +1.3% y/y, greater than expectations of +1.2% y/y and the most in 5-years.

    The Japan Jan Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI climbed +1.4 to 56.6, the fastest pace of expansion in 7-3/4 years.

    Japan Dec industrial production rose +1.1% m/m and +7.3% y/y, slightly less than expectations of +1.3% m/m and +7.3% y/y.

    The Japan Dec jobless rate fell -0.3 to 3.7%, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 3.9% and the lowest in 6-1/3 years. The Dec job-to-applicant ratio rose +0.03 to 1.03, stronger than expectations of +0.01 to 1.01 and the highest in 6-1/3 years.

    Japan Dec overall household spending rose +0.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.1% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's final-Jan U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a +0.6 point increase to 81.0 from the early-Jan level of 80.4. Today's Jan Chicago PMI is expected to show a -1.8 point decline to 59.0, adding to the -2.2 point decline to 60.8 seen in December. Today's Dec personal income and spending reports are both expected to show modest increases of +0.2% following the Nov report of +0.2% and +0.5%, respectively. Today's Dec PCE deflator is expected to climb to +1.1% y/y from +0.9% in November. Meanwhile, the Dec core PCE deflator, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to climb slightly to +1.2% y/y from +1.1% in November.

    There are 18 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Mastercard (consensus $0.60), Tyson Foods (0.64), Mattel (1.20), Chevron (2.57), Mead Johnson Nutrition (0.77), Weyerhaeuser (0.28), National Oilwell Varco (1.39), and Simon Property Group (2.43). There are no equity conferences today.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Legg Mason (LM +1.71%) reported Q3 EPS of 67 cents, much weaker than consensus of 99 cents.

    AON Plc (AON +1.50%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.28, well below consensus of $1.51.

    Weyerhaeuser (WY +0.75%) reported Q4 EPS of 27 cents, below consensus of 28 cents.

    Bank of New York Mellon reported a 5.09% passive stake in Tesco (TESO +2.63%) .

    Eastman Chemical (EMN +1.71%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.35, better than consensus of $1.25.

    Wolverine Asset reported a 5.1% passive stake in Comtech (CMTL +0.13%) .

    Manitowoc (MTW +1.89%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 47 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents.

    CSC (CSC +2.07%) reported Q3 EPS of 94 cents, well ahead of consensus of 84 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $3.80-$3.90, stronger than consensus of $3.68.

    Symetra Financial (SYA +0.77%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 42 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents.

    B. Thomas Golisano reported a 10.4% passive stake in Paychex (PAYX +0.62%) .

    C.R. Bard (BCR +0.54%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.42, higher than consensus of $1.39.

    McKesson (MCK +2.28%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.45, well below consensus of $1.85, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $8.05-$8.20, weaker than consensus of $8.31.

    Broadcom (BRCM +1.81%) reported Q4 EPS of 60 cents, better than consensus of 57 cents.

    Wynn Resorts (WYNN +3.94%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.27, well above consensus of $1.74.

    Amazon.com (AMZN +4.90%) slid 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 51 cents, well below consensus of 66 cents.

    Google (GOOG +2.57%) reported Q4 EPS of $12.01, below consensus of $12.26.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.67%) this morning are down -15.00 points (-0.84%). The S&P 500 on Thursday closed higher due to strength in U.S. Q4 GDP and stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings results. U.S. Q4 GDP rose +3.2% (annualized q/q), right on expectations, and Q4 personal consumption climbed +3.3%, the biggest increase in 3 years. As of Thursday, 77% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported Q4 earnings results have beaten estimates. Closes: S&P 500 +1.13%, Dow Jones +0.70%, Nasdaq 100 +1.86%.

    Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.24%) this morning are up +11 ticks at a 2-1/2 month high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed lower as strength in U.S. Q4 GDP boosted stocks and strengthened expectations for steady Fed QE3 tapering. T-notes found support on the sharp -8.7% drop in U.S. Dec pending home sales, the biggest decline in 3-1/2 years. Closes: TYH4 -5.50, FVH4 -2.50.

    The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0006 (-0.04%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.51 (-0.50%). The dollar index on Thursday closed higher after strength in U.S. Q4 GDP boosted expectations that the Fed will continue to taper QE3. EUR/USD fell on speculation that deflation concerns may prompt the ECB into additional stimulus measures after the German Jan CPI report of -0.7% m/m and +1.2% y/y was weaker than expectations of -0.6% m/m and +1.3% y/y. Closes: Dollar index +0.580 (+0.72%), EUR/USD -0.01084 (-0.79%), USD/JPY +0.439 (+0.43%).

    Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 -0.84%) this morning is down -44 cents (-0.45%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.83%) is down -0.0047 (-0.18%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed higher with Mar crude at a 4-week high and Mar gasoline at a 1-week high. Bullish factors includes (1) strength in the U.S. economy that benefits fuel demand after Q4 personal consumption climbed +3.3%, the most in 3 years, and (2) speculation that U.S. demand for heating fuels will continue to be strong after Commodity Weather Group said that January is on track to be the coldest month of the century in the lower 48 states. Closes: CLH4 +0.87 (+0.89%), RBH4 +0.0057 (+0.21%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/31/2014

    US 0830 ET Q4 employment cost index expected +0.4%, Q3 +0.4%.
      0830 ET Dec personal spending expected +0.2%, Nov +0.5%. Dec personal income expected +0.2%, Nov +0.2%. Dec PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Nov unch m/m and +0.9% y/y. Dec core PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
      0945 ET Jan Chicago PMI expected -1.8 to 59.0, Dec -2.2 to 60.8.
      0955 ET Final Jan U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence expected +0.6 to 81.0, previous -2.1 to 80.4.
      1315 ET Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks about Fed operations and the economy at a community forum hosted by the Dallas Fed.
      2400 ET Fed Chairman Ben Bernankes term expires, paving the way for Janet Yellen to become the new Fed Chairperson.
    JPN 0000 ET Japan Dec housing starts expected +13.6% y/y to 1.000 million. Nov +14.1% y/y to 1.033 million.
      0000 ET Japan Dec construction orders, Nov +2.2% y/y.
    GER 0200 ET German Dec retail sales expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Nov +0.8% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
    UK 0430 ET UK Jan Lloyds business barometer, Dec 48.
    EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Dec unemployment rate expected unch at 12.1%, Nov 12.1%.
      0500 ET Eurozone Jan CPI estimate expected +0.9% y/y, Dec +0.8% y/y. Jan core CPI expected +0.8% y/y, Dec +0.7% y/y.
    CHI 2000 ET China Jan manufacturing PMI expected -0.5 to 50.5, Dec 51.0.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/31/2014

    Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
    Mead Johnson Nutrition Co MJN US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.765
    Newell Rubbermaid Inc NWL US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.461
    LyondellBasell Industries NV LYB US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.401
    AbbVie Inc ABBV US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.823
    Tyco International Ltd TYC US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.451
    MasterCard Inc MA US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.598
    Weyerhaeuser Co WY US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.28
    National Oilwell Varco Inc NOV US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.389
    Tyson Foods Inc TSN US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.638
    Simon Property Group Inc SPG US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 2.431
    Mattel Inc MAT US 6:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.204
    Aon PLC AON US 6:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.508
    CONSOL Energy Inc CNX US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.061
    Legg Mason Inc LM US 7:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.99
    Dominion Resources Inc/VA D US 7:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.886
    Morgan Stanley MS US 8:00 Fixed Income Investor Update Call    
    Tyco International Ltd TYC US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Actavis plc ACT US 8:00 Investor Day Y 2014  
    PACCAR Inc PCAR US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.927
    Legg Mason Inc LM US 8:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
    Eastman Chemical Co EMN US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Aon PLC AON US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Avery Dennison Corp AVY US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.681
    Chevron Corp CVX US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 2.567
    Mattel Inc MAT US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Newell Rubbermaid Inc NWL US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    AbbVie Inc ABBV US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    MasterCard Inc MA US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    National Oilwell Varco Inc NOV US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Tyson Foods Inc TSN US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Mead Johnson Nutrition Co MJN US 9:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Newmont Mining Corp NEM US 10:00 Q4 2013 Sales and Revenue Call Q4 2013  
    CONSOL Energy Inc CNX US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Dominion Resources Inc/VA D US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Weyerhaeuser Co WY US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Simon Property Group Inc SPG US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    LyondellBasell Industries NV LYB US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Chevron Corp CVX US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Tyson Foods Inc TSN US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    PACCAR Inc PCAR US 12:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Avery Dennison Corp AVY US 13:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Bristol-Myers Squibb Co BMY US   PDUFA, tasimelteon, Non-24-Hour Disorder in the totally blind    
    Stocks: LM, AON, WY, TESO, EMN, CMTL, MWEB, CSC, SYA, PAYX, BCR, MCK, AVGO, WYNN, AMZN, GOOG, MJN, NWL, LYB, ABBV, TYC, MA, NOV, TSN, SPG, MAT, CNX, D, MS, AGN, PCAR, AVY, CVX
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