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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/4 0 comments
    Feb 4, 2014 11:23 AM | about stocks: ADM, CME, CHD, PRE, CCK, NOC, YUM, DNB, HIG, MDU, UGI, APC, TTWO, PFG, HOLX, BSX, SE, ETN, EMR, FIS, IP, XYL, KORS, DLPH, MHFI, R, BDX

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Tuesday, February 4th, 2014View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.36%) this morning are up +0.42% on a slight rebound from Monday's plunge, while European stocks are down -0.49% at a 1-1/2 month low. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -4.18%, Hong Kong -2.89%, Australia -1.75%, Singapore -0.84%, South Korea -1.88%, India +0.01%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index dropped to a 3-3/4 month low as it catches up with Monday's slide in U.S. stocks. According to data from EPFR, global investors pulled $6.3 billion from developing-market equities in the week through Jan 29, the biggest outflow since Aug 2011. The yield on the 10-year German bund tumbled to a nearly 6-month low of 1.628% on speculation the ECB will boost its stimulus measures when it meets on Thursday. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +0.15%) is up +0.01%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.17%) is down -0.12%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.58%) is down -0.45%. March copper (HGH14 +0.58%) is up +0.53%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.13%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.06%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.30%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks.

    According to two Eurozone central bank officials with knowledge of the matter, ECB President Draghi was contemplating the sterilization of bond purchases from the now terminated Securities Markets Program if the Bundesbank backs his proposal and helps sell the plan to the German public. Ending the sterilizing of bond purchases would more than double excess liquidity in the financial system and reduce banks' incentive to keep cash at the ECB rather than lend it.

    UK Jan PMI construction unexpectedly rose +2.5 to 64.6, better than expectations of -0.6 to 61.5 and the fastest pace of expansion in 6-1/3 years.

    Eurozone Dec PPI rose +0.2% m/m and fell -0.8% y/y, right on expectations.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's Dec factory orders report is expected to show a decline of -1.8%, exactly reversing the +1.8% increase seen in November. There are 25 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include ADM (consensus $0.84), Emerson Electric (0.67), CME Group (0.67), Delphia Automotive (1.04), Gilead Scientific (0.50), Genworth Financial (0.30), and Equity Residential (0.75).

    Equity conferences this week include Defexpo India 2014 on Wed, Cowen and Company Aerospace Defense & Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wind Power Finance & Investment Summit 2014 on Wed-Thu, UBS Industrials Conference on Thu, and India Auto Expo 2014 on Fri.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM -1.44%) reported Q4 EPS of 95 cents, well ahead of consensus of 83 cents.

    CME Group (CME -2.11%) reported Q4 EPS of 64 cents, below consensus of 67 cents.

    Church & Dwight (CHD -3.90%) reported Q4 EPS of 65 cents, weaker than consensus of 66 cents, and then it cut guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.96-$3.07, below consensus of $3.10.

    PartnerRe (PRE -0.66%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $2.91, above consensus of $2.77.

    Crown Holdings (CCK -1.90%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of 48 cents, below consensus of 49 cents.

    Northrop Grumman (NOC -1.99%) has been awarded a $350 million contract by the Department of Homeland Security to provide operational services to the United States Computer Emergency Readiness Team.

    Yum! Brands (YUM -1.47%) gained 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 86 cents, better than consensus of 80 cents, although the company said that Q4 same-store-sales at its China division were down 4% y/y.

    Dun & Bradstreet (DNB -3.22%) reported Q4 EPS of $2.75, lower than consensus of $2.82.

    Hartford Financial (HIG -3.22%) reported Q4 EPS of 94 cents, stronger than consensus of 90 cents.

    MDU Resources (MDU -2.90%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 48 cents, higher than consensus of 41 cents.

    UGI Corporation (UGI -2.83%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.06, better than consensus of $1.03.

    Anadarko (APC -3.12%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, weaker than consensus of 91 cents.

    Take-Two (TTWO -1.46%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.70, well above consensus of $1.37, and then raised its fiscal 2014 EPS outlook to $4.15-$4.25, well ahead of consensus of $3.80.

    Principal Financial Group (PFG -4.27%) reported Q4 operating EPS of 96 cents, higher than consensus of 93 cents.

    Hologic (HOLX -4.17%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 34 cents, better than consensus of 31 cents.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.36%) this morning are up +7.25 points (+0.42%). The S&P 500 on Monday plunged to a 3-1/4 month low and closed sharply lower. Bearish factors included (1) the sharp -5.2 point decline in the Jan U.S. ISM manufacturing index to an 8-month low, and (2) Chinese growth concerns after the China Jan manufacturing PMI fell -0.5 to a 6-month low of 50.5 and the China Jan non-manufacturing PMI fell -1.2 to 53.4, the slowest pace of expansion since data began in 2011. Closes: S&P 500 -2.28%, Dow Jones -2.08%, Nasdaq 100 -2.31%.

    Mar 10-year T-notes this morning (ZNH14 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday rallied to a 3-month high on concern about a slowdown in the U.S. economy after the Jan ISM manufacturing index fell to its slowest pace in 8 months. Another supportive factor for T-notes was the slide in global stocks that boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the turmoil in emerging markets will lead to slower global growth. Closes: TYH4 +22.50, FVH4 +11.25.

    The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.104 (+0.13%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0008 (-0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.30 (+0.30%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on speculation that the larger-than-expected decline in the Jan ISM could prompt the Fed to postpone QE3 tapering. EUR/USD recovered from a 2-1/4 month low and closed higher after the Eurozone Jan PMI manufacturing was revised upward to a 2-1/2 year high. USD/JPY dropped to a 2-1/4 month low as the yen gained on increased safe-haven demand from the slide in global stocks. Closes: Dollar index -0.291 (-0.36%), EUR/USD +0.0039 (+0.29%), USD/JPY -1.053 (-1.03%).

    Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +0.15%) this morning is up +1 cent (+0.01%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.17%) is down -0.0031 (-0.12%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower with Mar gasoline at a 2-week low on concern a slowdown in the global economy will lead to reduced energy demand after manufacturing activity in China and the U.S. slowed last month. Other bearish factors include the slide in global stock markets and concerns about emerging markets. Closes: CLH4 -1.06 (-1.09%), RBH4 -0.0245 (-0.93%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/04/2014

    US0830 ETRichmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economic outlook at Shenandoah University.
     1000 ETDec factory orders expected -1.8%, Nov +1.8%.
     1000 ETU.S. CBO releases its annual budget and economic outlook.
     1230 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on Monetary Challenges for 2014 at the Detroit Economics Club.
    UK0430 ETUK Jan PMI construction expected -0.6 to 61.5, Dec 62.1.
     1901 ETUK Jan BRC shop price index expected -0.7% y/y, Dec -0.8% y/y.
    EUR0500 ETEurozone Dec PPI expected +0.2% m/m and -0.8% y/y, Nov -0.1% m/m and -1.2% y/y.
    JPN2030 ETJapan Dec labor cash earnings, Nov +0.6% y/y.
    CHIn/aChinese markets are closed Monday-Thursday for Lunar New Year holiday.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/04/2014

    Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
    Archer-Daniels-Midland CoADM USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.842
    Boston Scientific CorpBSX USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.127
    Spectra Energy CorpSE USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.377
    Eaton Corp PLCETN USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.064
    Emerson Electric CoEMR USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.672
    Gannett Co IncGCI USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.65
    Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.78
    International Paper CoIP USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.859
    Becton Dickinson and CoBDX US6:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.296
    Xylem Inc/NYXYL US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.52
    Michael Kors Holdings LtdKORS US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.859
    CME Group Inc/ILCME US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.673
    Delphi Automotive PLCDLPH US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.042
    McGraw Hill Financial IncMHFI US7:15Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.786
    Ryder System IncR US7:55Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.291
    Dun & Bradstreet Corp/TheDNB US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Becton Dickinson and CoBDX US8:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Boston Scientific CorpBSX US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Michael Kors Holdings LtdKORS US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    Equity ResidentialEQR USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.754
    Aflac IncAFL USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.386
    AGL Resources IncGAS USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.907
    Genworth Financial IncGNW USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.304
    Cerner CorpCERN USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.389
    AutoNation IncAN US January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014 
    Rockwell Automation IncROK US Annual General Meeting  
    Macerich Co/TheMAC US Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.925

    Stocks: ADM, CME, CHD, PRE, CCK, NOC, YUM, DNB, HIG, MDU, UGI, APC, TTWO, PFG, HOLX, BSX, SE, ETN, EMR, FIS, IP, XYL, KORS, DLPH, MHFI, R, BDX
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