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BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/4

|Includes:Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM), APC, BDX, BSX, CCK, CHD, CME, DLPH, DNB, EMR, ETN, FIS, HIG, HOLX, IP, KORS, MDU, NOC, PFG, PRE, R, SE, SPGI, TTWO, UGI, XYL, YUM

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.36%) this morning are up +0.42% on a slight rebound from Monday's plunge, while European stocks are down -0.49% at a 1-1/2 month low. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -4.18%, Hong Kong -2.89%, Australia -1.75%, Singapore -0.84%, South Korea -1.88%, India +0.01%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index dropped to a 3-3/4 month low as it catches up with Monday's slide in U.S. stocks. According to data from EPFR, global investors pulled $6.3 billion from developing-market equities in the week through Jan 29, the biggest outflow since Aug 2011. The yield on the 10-year German bund tumbled to a nearly 6-month low of 1.628% on speculation the ECB will boost its stimulus measures when it meets on Thursday. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +0.15%) is up +0.01%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.17%) is down -0.12%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.58%) is down -0.45%. March copper (HGH14 +0.58%) is up +0.53%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.13%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.06%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.30%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks.

According to two Eurozone central bank officials with knowledge of the matter, ECB President Draghi was contemplating the sterilization of bond purchases from the now terminated Securities Markets Program if the Bundesbank backs his proposal and helps sell the plan to the German public. Ending the sterilizing of bond purchases would more than double excess liquidity in the financial system and reduce banks' incentive to keep cash at the ECB rather than lend it.

UK Jan PMI construction unexpectedly rose +2.5 to 64.6, better than expectations of -0.6 to 61.5 and the fastest pace of expansion in 6-1/3 years.

Eurozone Dec PPI rose +0.2% m/m and fell -0.8% y/y, right on expectations.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today's Dec factory orders report is expected to show a decline of -1.8%, exactly reversing the +1.8% increase seen in November. There are 25 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include ADM (consensus $0.84), Emerson Electric (0.67), CME Group (0.67), Delphia Automotive (1.04), Gilead Scientific (0.50), Genworth Financial (0.30), and Equity Residential (0.75).

Equity conferences this week include Defexpo India 2014 on Wed, Cowen and Company Aerospace Defense & Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wind Power Finance & Investment Summit 2014 on Wed-Thu, UBS Industrials Conference on Thu, and India Auto Expo 2014 on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM -1.44%) reported Q4 EPS of 95 cents, well ahead of consensus of 83 cents.

CME Group (CME -2.11%) reported Q4 EPS of 64 cents, below consensus of 67 cents.

Church & Dwight (CHD -3.90%) reported Q4 EPS of 65 cents, weaker than consensus of 66 cents, and then it cut guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.96-$3.07, below consensus of $3.10.

PartnerRe (PRE -0.66%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $2.91, above consensus of $2.77.

Crown Holdings (CCK -1.90%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of 48 cents, below consensus of 49 cents.

Northrop Grumman (NOC -1.99%) has been awarded a $350 million contract by the Department of Homeland Security to provide operational services to the United States Computer Emergency Readiness Team.

Yum! Brands (YUM -1.47%) gained 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 86 cents, better than consensus of 80 cents, although the company said that Q4 same-store-sales at its China division were down 4% y/y.

Dun & Bradstreet (DNB -3.22%) reported Q4 EPS of $2.75, lower than consensus of $2.82.

Hartford Financial (HIG -3.22%) reported Q4 EPS of 94 cents, stronger than consensus of 90 cents.

MDU Resources (MDU -2.90%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 48 cents, higher than consensus of 41 cents.

UGI Corporation (UGI -2.83%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.06, better than consensus of $1.03.

Anadarko (APC -3.12%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, weaker than consensus of 91 cents.

Take-Two (TTWO -1.46%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.70, well above consensus of $1.37, and then raised its fiscal 2014 EPS outlook to $4.15-$4.25, well ahead of consensus of $3.80.

Principal Financial Group (PFG -4.27%) reported Q4 operating EPS of 96 cents, higher than consensus of 93 cents.

Hologic (HOLX -4.17%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 34 cents, better than consensus of 31 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.36%) this morning are up +7.25 points (+0.42%). The S&P 500 on Monday plunged to a 3-1/4 month low and closed sharply lower. Bearish factors included (1) the sharp -5.2 point decline in the Jan U.S. ISM manufacturing index to an 8-month low, and (2) Chinese growth concerns after the China Jan manufacturing PMI fell -0.5 to a 6-month low of 50.5 and the China Jan non-manufacturing PMI fell -1.2 to 53.4, the slowest pace of expansion since data began in 2011. Closes: S&P 500 -2.28%, Dow Jones -2.08%, Nasdaq 100 -2.31%.

Mar 10-year T-notes this morning (ZNH14 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday rallied to a 3-month high on concern about a slowdown in the U.S. economy after the Jan ISM manufacturing index fell to its slowest pace in 8 months. Another supportive factor for T-notes was the slide in global stocks that boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the turmoil in emerging markets will lead to slower global growth. Closes: TYH4 +22.50, FVH4 +11.25.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.104 (+0.13%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0008 (-0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.30 (+0.30%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on speculation that the larger-than-expected decline in the Jan ISM could prompt the Fed to postpone QE3 tapering. EUR/USD recovered from a 2-1/4 month low and closed higher after the Eurozone Jan PMI manufacturing was revised upward to a 2-1/2 year high. USD/JPY dropped to a 2-1/4 month low as the yen gained on increased safe-haven demand from the slide in global stocks. Closes: Dollar index -0.291 (-0.36%), EUR/USD +0.0039 (+0.29%), USD/JPY -1.053 (-1.03%).

Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +0.15%) this morning is up +1 cent (+0.01%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.17%) is down -0.0031 (-0.12%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower with Mar gasoline at a 2-week low on concern a slowdown in the global economy will lead to reduced energy demand after manufacturing activity in China and the U.S. slowed last month. Other bearish factors include the slide in global stock markets and concerns about emerging markets. Closes: CLH4 -1.06 (-1.09%), RBH4 -0.0245 (-0.93%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/04/2014

US 0830 ET Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economic outlook at Shenandoah University.
  1000 ET Dec factory orders expected -1.8%, Nov +1.8%.
  1000 ET U.S. CBO releases its annual budget and economic outlook.
  1230 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on Monetary Challenges for 2014 at the Detroit Economics Club.
UK 0430 ET UK Jan PMI construction expected -0.6 to 61.5, Dec 62.1.
  1901 ET UK Jan BRC shop price index expected -0.7% y/y, Dec -0.8% y/y.
EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Dec PPI expected +0.2% m/m and -0.8% y/y, Nov -0.1% m/m and -1.2% y/y.
JPN 2030 ET Japan Dec labor cash earnings, Nov +0.6% y/y.
CHI n/a Chinese markets are closed Monday-Thursday for Lunar New Year holiday.
Click to enlarge

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/04/2014

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.842
Boston Scientific Corp BSX US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.127
Spectra Energy Corp SE US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.377
Eaton Corp PLC ETN US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.064
Emerson Electric Co EMR US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.672
Gannett Co Inc GCI US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.65
Fidelity National Information Services Inc FIS US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.78
International Paper Co IP US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.859
Becton Dickinson and Co BDX US 6:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.296
Xylem Inc/NY XYL US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.52
Michael Kors Holdings Ltd KORS US 7:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.859
CME Group Inc/IL CME US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.673
Delphi Automotive PLC DLPH US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.042
McGraw Hill Financial Inc MHFI US 7:15 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.786
Ryder System Inc R US 7:55 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.291
Dun & Bradstreet Corp/The DNB US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Becton Dickinson and Co BDX US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Boston Scientific Corp BSX US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Michael Kors Holdings Ltd KORS US 8:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
Equity Residential EQR US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.754
Aflac Inc AFL US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.386
AGL Resources Inc GAS US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.907
Genworth Financial Inc GNW US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.304
Cerner Corp CERN US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.389
AutoNation Inc AN US   January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release 2014  
Rockwell Automation Inc ROK US   Annual General Meeting    
Macerich Co/The MAC US   Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.925
Click to enlarge
Stocks: ADM, CME, CHD, PRE, CCK, NOC, YUM, DNB, HIG, MDU, UGI, APC, TTWO, PFG, HOLX, BSX, SE, ETN, EMR, FIS, IP, XYL, KORS, DLPH, SPGI, R, BDX