Wednesday, February 5th, 2014View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.19%) this morning are down -0.14% ahead of this morning's Jan ADP employment change, while European stocks are up +0.17% after most emerging-market stocks rose. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.23%, Hong Kong -0.60%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan -2.34%, Australia -0.52%, Singapore -0.19%, South Korea +0.30%, India +0.24%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rebounded from Tuesday's rout after a +19% surge in Panasonic led Japanese stocks higher as Japan's biggest maker of consumer electronics reported Q3 profit than was +68% higher than market estimates. Gains in European equities were muted and the 10-year German bund yield fell to a 6-month low of 1.62% after Eurozone Dec retail sales plunged -1.6% m/m, the biggest monthly decline in 2-1/2 years, which bolstered the case for more ECB stimulus. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +0.59%) is up +0.72%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.30%) is up +0.41%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.62%) is up +0.58%. March copper (HGH14 +0.42%) is up +0.47%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.46%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.10%) are up +2 ticks.
Eurozone Dec retail sales fell -1.6% m/m, more than double expectations of a -0.7% m/m drop and the largest monthly decline in 2-1/2 years. On an annual basis, Dec retail sales unexpectedly fell -1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.5% y/y.
The Eurozone Jan PMI composite was revised downward to 52.9 from the originally reported 53.2, but still was the fastest pace of expansion in 2-1/2 years.
The German Jan PMI services was revised downward to 53.1 from the originally reported 53.6.
The UK Jan PMI services unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 58.3, weaker than expectations of a +0.2 point increase to 59.0.
The UK Jan BRC shop price index fell -1.0% y/y, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.7% y/y and the largest drop since data began in 2006.
Japan Dec labor cash earnings rose +0.8% y/y, the biggest increase in 1-3/4 years, and Nov was revised up to +0.6% y/y from the originally reported +0.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's Jan ADP employment report is expected to show an increase of +190,000, falling back a bit from December's strong report of +238,000. Today's Jan ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show an increase of +0.7 points to 53.7, recovering most of the -0.9 point decline to 53.0 seen in December. There are 26 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Time Warner (consensus $1.15), Humana (0.92), Nasdaq OMX (0.67), Merck (0.89), ADP (0.77), Coca-Cola (0.52), Ralph Lauren (2.51), Allstate (1.37), Walt Disney (0.92), Tesoro (0.31), Marathon Oil (0.71), Prudential Financial (2.23).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include Defexpo India 2014 on Wed, Cowen and Company Aerospace Defense & Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wind Power Finance & Investment Summit 2014 on Wed-Thu, UBS Industrials Conference on Thu, and India Auto Expo 2014 on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Merck (MRK +2.75%) reported Q4 EPS of 88 cents, below consensus of 89 cents.
NASDAQ OMX Group (NDAQ +1.78%) reported Q4 EPS of 72 cents, better than consensus of 67 cents.
Humana (HUM +1.15%) reported Q4 EPS of 80 cents, well below consensus of 92 cents.
Time Warner (TWX +1.43%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.17, higher than consensus of $1.15.
The WSJ reported that oil firms Hess (HES +1.14%) , Whiting Petroleum (WLL +0.99%) and Marathon Oil (MRO +0.87%) all face civil penalties for crude-by-rail violations.
Genworth (GNW +1.61%) reported Q4 EPS of 38 cents, well above consensus of 30 cents.
BlackRock reported a 5.3% passive stake in LinkedIn (LNKD -1.43%) and a 5.5% passive stake in General Motors (GM +1.62%) .
C.H. Robinson (CHRW +1.58%) fell 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 62 cents, below consensus of 68 cents.
DeVry (DV +2.24%) reported Q2 EPS ex-items of 80 cents, above consensus of 73 cents.
Aflac (AFL +1.24%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.40, better than consensus of $1.39.
Ameriprise (AMP +2.04%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $1.87, higher than consensus of $1.81.
Myriad Genetics (MYGN -0.88%) jumped 18% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 66 cents, well above consensus of 46 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $2.09-$2.14 from $1.92-$1.97, above consensus of $1.97.
Gilead (GILD +4.05%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, stronger than consensus of 50 cents.
CSG Systems (CSGS +0.14%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $2.05-$2.17, below consensus of $2.27.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD +3.46%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.10, better than consensus of $1.07.
Unum Group (UNM +1.92%) reported Q4 EPS of 85 cents, higher than consensus of 84 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.19%) this morning are down -2.50 points (-0.14%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday rebounded from Monday's plunge and closed higher after a recovery in emerging-market currencies eased concern about the turmoil in emerging markets. According to data from EPFR, global investors pulled $6.3 billion from developing-market equities in the week through Jan 29, the biggest outflow since Aug 2011. Another supportive factor for stocks was the CBO's forecast that the 2014 U.S. budget deficit will fall to a 7-year low of $514 billion from $680 billion last year. Closes: S&P 500 +0.76%, Dow Jones +0.47%, Nasdaq 100 +0.86%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.10%) this morning are up +2 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed lower after a rally in emerging-market currencies and equities reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. T-note prices also fell on the comment from Richmond Fed President Lacker that the plunge in global stock markets hasn't "affected the outlook for labor market conditions materially at this point" and probably won't deter the Fed from further tapering QE3. Closes: TYH4 -9.00, FVH4 -3.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is down -0.047 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0002 (-0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.47 (-0.46%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed slightly higher. EUR/USD fell back after ECB President Draghi was said to consider ending the sterilization of Eurozone debt-crisis bond purchases, which would boost liquidity in the financial system and would be euro-negative. USD/JPY rallied as strength in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen. Closes: Dollar index +0.112 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.00069 (-0.05%), USD/JPY +0.67 (+0.66%).
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +0.59%) this morning is up +70 cents (+0.72%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.30%) is up +0.0106 (+0.41%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday settled mixed. Crude gained on the upward rebound in the stock market after Monday's plunge and on the consensus for Wednesday's weekly EIA distillate inventories to fall -2.5 million bbl as the colder-than-normal U.S. winter boosts heating oil demand. Gasoline closed lower on expectations that Wednesday's EIA gasoline supplies will climb +1.15 million bbl. Closes: CLH4 +0.76 (+0.79%), RBH4 -0.0038 (-0.15%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/05/2014
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.2% with purchase sub-index +1.5% and refi sub-index -2.2%. |
| 0815 ET | Jan ADP employment change expected +187,000, Dec +238,000. | |
| 0900 ET | Treasury announces amounts of 3-year T-notes (previous $30 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned in the Feds quarterly refunding Feb 11-13. | |
| 1000 ET | Jan ISM non-manufacturing index expected +0.7 to 53.7, Dec -0.9 to 53.0. | |
| 1030 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. | |
| 1230 ET | Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on the economic outlook at the Simon Business Schools 35th Annual Economic Seminar. | |
| 1340 ET | Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook to the Rotary Club of Birmingham. | |
| GER | 0355 ET | Revised German Jan PMI services, previous 53.6. |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Revised Eurozone Jan PMI composite, previous 53.2. |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone Dec retail sales expected -0.7% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Nov +1.4% m/m and +1.6% y/y. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Jan PMI services expected +0.2 to 59.0, Dec 58.8. |
| CHI | n/a | Chinese markets are closed Monday-Thursday for Lunar New Year holiday. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/05/2014
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time Warner Inc | TWX US | 6:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.151 |
| Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp | CTSH US | 6:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.149 |
| Humana Inc | HUM US | 6:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.917 |
| Fastenal Co | FAST US | 7:00 | January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release | 2014 | |
| NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/The | NDAQ US | 7:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.667 |
| Merck & Co Inc | MRK US | 7:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.886 |
| Automatic Data Processing Inc | ADP US | 7:30 | Q2 2014 Earnings Release | Q2 2014 | 0.77 |
| Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc | CCE US | 7:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.521 |
| Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The | EL US | 7:30 | Q2 2014 Earnings Release | Q2 2014 | 1.059 |
| Ralph Lauren Corp | RL US | 8:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 2.508 |
| Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp | CTSH US | 8:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Genworth Financial Inc | GNW US | 8:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/The | NDAQ US | 8:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Merck & Co Inc | MRK US | 8:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Automatic Data Processing Inc | ADP US | 8:30 | Q2 2014 Earnings Call | Q2 2014 | |
| Spectra Energy Corp | SE US | 8:30 | Investor Meeting | Y 2014 | |
| CH Robinson Worldwide Inc | CHRW US | 8:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Aflac Inc | AFL US | 9:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Allergan Inc/United States | AGN US | 9:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.339 |
| AGL Resources Inc | GAS US | 9:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Ralph Lauren Corp | RL US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Humana Inc | HUM US | 9:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Ameriprise Financial Inc | AMP US | 9:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The | EL US | 9:30 | Q2 2014 Earnings Call | Q2 2014 | |
| Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc | CCE US | 10:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Unum Group | UNM US | 10:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Time Warner Inc | TWX US | 10:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Equity Residential | EQR US | 11:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Allergan Inc/United States | AGN US | 11:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Macerich Co/The | MAC US | 13:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| American Express Co | AXP US | 14:30 | Financial Community Meeting | Y 2014 | |
| CBRE Group Inc | CBG US | 16:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.66 |
| Lincoln National Corp | LNC US | 16:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.275 |
| Fiserv Inc | FISV US | 16:01 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.8 |
| Kimco Realty Corp | KIM US | 16:01 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.332 |
| Cincinnati Financial Corp | CINF US | 16:05 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.728 |
| Allstate Corp/The | ALL US | 16:05 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.373 |
| Walt Disney Co/The | DIS US | 16:15 | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.915 |
| Akamai Technologies Inc | AKAM US | 16:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Stericycle Inc | SRCL US | 17:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Walt Disney Co/The | DIS US | 17:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| XL Group PLC | XL US | 17:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| CBRE Group Inc | CBG US | 17:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Fiserv Inc | FISV US | 17:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| O'Reilly Automotive Inc | ORLY US | 18:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.323 |
| Tesoro Corp | TSO US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.313 |
| Stericycle Inc | SRCL US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.963 |
| XL Group PLC | XL US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.815 |
| Marathon Oil Corp | MRO US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.709 |
| Akamai Technologies Inc | AKAM US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.515 |
| FMC Corp | FMC US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.924 |
| Prudential Financial Inc | PRU US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 2.228 |
| Assurant Inc | AIZ US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.428 |
| Walgreen Co | WAG US | January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release | 2014 |