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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/6 0 comments
    Feb 6, 2014 9:01 AM | about stocks: AET, ORLY, AIZ, GMCR, RE, CNW, CAA, CBG, DIS, BKD, MTD, ALL, PRU, AKAM, TWTR, CINF, FISV, NBL, PPL, EXC, TDC, PM, VMC, ADS, DO, SNA, WEC, SIAL, CMI, SEE, GM, LB, FOXA, PRGO, K, TSO, MRO, KIM, LNC, ES, FMC, VRSN, EXPE, NWSA, RSG, FTI, COL, EOG, GPS, COST

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Thursday, February 6th, 2014View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.33%) this morning are up +0.50% and European stocks are up +1.12% ahead of the results of the ECB's policy meeting. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan -0.18%, Hong Kong +0.72%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan +0.56%, Australia +1.20%, Singapore +0.95%, South Korea +1.02%, India +0.25%. Emerging-market stocks stabilized and a rally in the Turkish lira has led emerging-market currencies higher ahead of an expected dovish stance by ECB President Draghi at his press conference later today. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +1.02%) is up +0.54%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 +1.20%) is up +0.62%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.49%) is up +0.33%. March copper (HGH14 +0.50%) is up +0.60%. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.10% after German Dec factory orders unexpectedly declined. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.03%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks.

    German Dec factory orders unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase, and on an annual basis Dec factory orders rose +6.0% y/y, a slower pace than expectations of +7.2% y/y.

    UK Jan Halifax house prices rose +1.1% m/m and +7.3% y/y, slightly higher than expectations of +1.0% m/m and +7.2% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -13,000 to 335,000, reversing most of last week's increase of +19,000 to 348,000. Weekly continuing claims are expected to show a small increase of +3,000 to 2.994 million following last week's decline of -16,000 to 2.991 million. Today's Dec trade deficit is expected to widen slightly to -$36.0 billion from -$34.3 billion in November.

    There are 25 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include General Motors (consensus $0.87), Kellogg (0.82), Aetna (1.36), Cummins (1.97), News Corp (0.19), FMC Technologies (0.65), VeriSign (0.60), and Expedia (0.85). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include Cowen and Company Aerospace Defense & Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wind Power Finance & Investment Summit 2014 on Wed-Thu, UBS Industrials Conference on Thu, and India Auto Expo 2014 on Fri.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Aetna (AET +1.50%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.34, below consensus of $1.36.

    O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY +0.05%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.40, higher than consensus of $1.34.

    Assurant (AIZ +0.74%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $1.42, better than consensus of $1.41.

    Green Mountain (GMCR +0.92%) soared over 40% in after-hours trading after Coca-Cola (KO +0.35%) said it will buy a 10% stake in the company for $1.25 billion.

    Everest Re (RE +0.11%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of $6.28, well above consensus of $4.97.

    Con-way (CNW -0.51%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 23 cents, stronger than consensus of 21 cents.

    Standard Pacific (SPF +0.12%) reported Q4 EPS of 16 cents, higher than consensus of 14 cents.

    CBRE Group (CBG -0.22%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, better than consensus of 66 cents.

    Disney (DIS +1.00%) rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 EPS ex-items of $1.04, well ahead of consensus of 92 cents.

    Brookdale Senior Living (BKD +0.60%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -1 cents, worse than consensus of a 2 cent gain.

    Mettler-Toledo (MTD -0.82%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.82, better than consensus of $3.74.

    Allstate (ALL -0.70%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.76, well above consensus of $1.38.

    Prudential (PRU +0.24%) reported Q4 EPS of $2.20, weaker than consensus of $2.23.

    Akamai (AKAM +2.00%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, higher than consensus of 52 cents.

    Twitter (TWTR -0.53%) reported Q4 EPS of 2 cents, better than consensus of a -2 cent loss and then said it sees 2014 revenue of $1.15 billion-$1.2 billion, above consensus $1.13 billion.

    Cincinnati Financial (CINF -0.32%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, better than consensus of 69 cents.

    Fiserv FISV reported Q4 EPS of 79 cents, below consensus of 81 cents.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.33%) this morning are up +8.75 points (+0.50%). The S&P 500 on Wednesday fell to a 3-1/4 month low after Jan ADP employment rose +175,000, less than expectations of +185,000 and the smallest increase in 5 months. Stock prices recovered, however, and settled only modestly lower after the Jan ISM non-manufacturing index rose +1.0 to 54.0, better than expectations of +0.7 to 53.7. Another negative for stocks was the hawkish comment from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser that the Fed may have to quicken the pace of tapering QE3 if the economy improves as he expects. Closes: S&P 500 -0.20%, Dow Jones -0.03%, Nasdaq 100 -0.44%.

    Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.10%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks erased an early decline and moved higher. T-note prices were also hurt by the hawkish comment from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser that an improving U.S. economy may "warrant a quicker tapering of bond purchases" by the Fed. Closes: TYH4 -8.50, FVH4 -3.75.

    The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) this morning is up +0.074 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0014 (-0.10%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.03 (+0.03%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected Jan ADP employment report of +175,000, and (2) a rebound in stock prices from their worst levels, which reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar. Closes: Dollar index -0.085 (-0.10%), EUR/USD +0.00154 (+0.11%), USD/JPY -0.204 (-0.20%).

    Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +1.02%) this morning is up +53 cents (+0.34%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 +1.20%) is up +0.0165 (+0.62%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher. Supportive factors for crude included (1) the +440,000 bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories, well below expectations for a +2.270 million bbl build, (2) the +505,000 bbl increase in weekly gasoline stockpiles, only about half of expectations of +920,000 bbl, and (3) the fall in Jan OPEC crude production to a 2-1/2 yr low of 29.888 million bpd. Closes: CLH4 +0.19 (+0.20%), RBH4 +0.0382 (+1.47%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/06/2014

    US 0730 ET Jan Challenger job cuts, Dec -5.9% y/y.
      0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -13,000 to 335,000, previous +19,000 to 348,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +7,000 to 2.998 million, previous 16,000 to 2.991 million.
      0830 ET Q4 non-farm productivity expected +2.8%, Q3 +3.0%. Q4 unit labor costs expected -0.7%, Q3 -1.4%.
      0830 ET Dec trade balance expected -$36.0 billion, Nov -$34.3 billion.
      0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
      1000 ET Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on Oversight of Financial Stability and Data Security.
      1730 ET Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks on the economic outlook at New College in Sarasota, FL.
    GER 0600 ET German Dec factory orders expected +0.2% m/m and +6.3% y/y, Nov +2.1% m/m and +6.8% y/y.
    UK 0700 ET BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, no change expected to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset target.
    EUR 0745 ET ECB announces interest rate decision.
      0830 ET ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at monthly press conference.
    CHI n/a Chinese markets are closed Monday-Thursday for Lunar New Year holiday.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/06/2014

    Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
    Noble Energy Inc NBL US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.588
    PPL Corp PPL US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.503
    Exelon Corp EXC US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.535
    Teradata Corp TDC US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.845
    Philip Morris International Inc PM US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.367
    Vulcan Materials Co VMC US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 -0.028
    Alliance Data Systems Corp ADS US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 2.331
    Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc DO US 6:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.806
    Aetna Inc AET US 6:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.359
    Snap-on Inc SNA US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.557
    Wisconsin Energy Corp WEC US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.589
    Sigma-Aldrich Corp SIAL US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.013
    Cummins Inc CMI US 7:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.965
    Sealed Air Corp SEE US 7:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.372
    General Motors Co GM US 7:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.866
    L Brands Inc LB US 7:30 January 2014 Sales and Revenue Call 2014  
    Twenty-First Century Fox Inc FOXA US 8:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.33
    Perrigo Co Plc PRGO US 8:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.595
    Kellogg Co K US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.82
    Assurant Inc AIZ US 8:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Twenty-First Century Fox Inc FOXA US 8:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
    PPL Corp PPL US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Teradata Corp TDC US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Tesoro Corp TSO US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Aetna Inc AET US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Alliance Data Systems Corp ADS US 8:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Chesapeake Energy Corp CHK US 9:00 FY 2014 Guidance Call Y 2014  
    Marathon Oil Corp MRO US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Allstate Corp/The ALL US 9:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Kellogg Co K US 9:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Noble Energy Inc NBL US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc DO US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Snap-on Inc SNA US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Cummins Inc CMI US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Sealed Air Corp SEE US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Perrigo Co Plc PRGO US 10:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
    General Motors Co GM US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Kimco Realty Corp KIM US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Lincoln National Corp LNC US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Northeast Utilities NU US 10:30 Analyst Day Y 2014  
    Exelon Corp EXC US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Vulcan Materials Co VMC US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    FMC Corp FMC US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    O'Reilly Automotive Inc ORLY US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Sigma-Aldrich Corp SIAL US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Prudential Financial Inc PRU US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Cincinnati Financial Corp CINF US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Philip Morris International Inc PM US 13:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Wisconsin Energy Corp WEC US 14:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Expedia Inc EXPE US 16:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.85
    VeriSign Inc VRSN US 16:05 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.596
    Expedia Inc EXPE US 16:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    News Corp NWSA US 16:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
    VeriSign Inc VRSN US 16:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Republic Services Inc RSG US 17:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
    Republic Services Inc RSG US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.464
    FMC Technologies Inc FTI US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.651
    Apartment Investment & Management Co AIV US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.564
    News Corp NWSA US Aft-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.194
    Rockwell Collins Inc COL US   Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Consolidated Edison Inc ED US   Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.654
    Gap Inc/The GPS US   January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release 2014  
    Costco Wholesale Corp COST US   January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release 2014  
    L Brands Inc LB US   January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release 2014
    Stocks: AET, ORLY, AIZ, GMCR, RE, CNW, CAA, CBG, DIS, BKD, MTD, ALL, PRU, AKAM, TWTR, CINF, FISV, NBL, PPL, EXC, TDC, PM, VMC, ADS, DO, SNA, WEC, SIAL, CMI, SEE, GM, LB, FOXA, PRGO, K, TSO, MRO, KIM, LNC, ES, FMC, VRSN, EXPE, NWSA, RSG, FTI, COL, EOG, GPS, COST
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