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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/13 0 comments
    Feb 13, 2014 9:18 AM | about stocks: TAP, HOT, PEP, TWC, BGC, APA, CTL, NVDA, MET, SPWR, NSIT, WFM, CSCO, AMAT, NTAP, CBS, BWA, AVP, NLSN, GT, IFF, DISCA, EQT, GWW, EMR, EFX, AIG

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Thursday, February 13th, 2014View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.44%) this morning are down -0.52% and European stocks are down -0.86%. Cisco fell nearly 4% and led U.S. stocks lower after it forecast quarterly sales below market estimates, while BNP Paribas lost 4% and led European stocks lower after it reported the lowest quarterly result in 6 years. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.79%, Hong Kong -0.54%, China -0.51%, Taiwan -0.51%, Australia -0.04%, Singapore +0.15%, South Korea -0.53%, India -1.25%. Fed Chair Yellen's testimony today before the Senate Banking Committee was postponed and federal government offices will be closed due to a snowstorm in Washington D.C. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 -0.57%) is down -0.61%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.68%) is down -0.76%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.26%) is down -0.15%. March copper (HGH14 -0.41%) is down -0.46%. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.41%) is down -0.42% at a 2-1/2 week low on expectations for data to show U.S. Jan retail sales stalled. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.51% at a 2-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.51%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.19%) are up +8.5 ticks.

    In testimony before the European Parliament, ECB Executive Board member Coeure stated "we have said if we see any downside risk to medium-term price stability then we would have to act."

    The German Jan CPI (EU harmonized) was left unchanged at -0.7% m/m and +1.2% y/y

    The Australia Jan employment change unexpectedly fell -3,700, less than expectations of a +15,000 increase, and the Jan unemployment rate rose +0.2 to 6.0%, higher than expectations of +0.1 to 5.9% and the highest in 10-1/2 years.

    China Jan passenger-vehicle sales rose +7% y/y to 1.8 million units, weaker than expectations of 1.88 million units and the slowest pace of growth in 11 months.

    The UK Jan RICS house price balance unexpectedly fell to 53% from 56% in Dec, less than expectations of an increase to 58%.

    The Japan Jan domestic CGPI rose +0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y, right on expectations.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a slight decline of -1,000 to 330,000, adding to last week's fairly large decline of -20,000 to 331,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to fall -4,000 to 2.960 million following last week's +15,000 increase to 2.964 million. Today's Jan retail sales report is expected to be weak at unchanged, decelerating from December's report of +0.2%. Excluding some weakness in auto sales, today's Jan retail sales report is expected to be a little stronger at +0.1%, down from December's strong report of +0.7%. The Treasury today will sell $16 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week's $70 billion coupon package.

    There are 17 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include BorgWarner (consensus $0.71), Avon (0.30), Nielsen (0.71), Goodyear (0.63), Discovery Communications (0.90), Kraft Foods (0.61), Agilent (0.66), and Consolidated Edison (0.66). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Global Energy Summit on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference on Wed-Thu, BB&T Capital Markets Transportation Services Conference on Wed-Thu, Leerink Swann Global Healthcare Conference on Wed-Thu, and Sterne Agee Financial Institutions Investor Conference on Thu.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Molson Coors Brewing (TAP -0.36%) reported Q4 EPS of 68 cents, weaker than consensus of 72 cents.

    Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT +0.43%) reported Q4 EPS of 73 cents, better than consensus of 70 cents.

    PepsiCo (PEP +0.30%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.05, stronger than consensus of $1.00.

    Time Warner Cable (TWC +0.30%) jumped 13% in pre-market trading after Comcast agreed to buy the company for about $45.2 billion in stock.

    General Cable (BGC +0.73%) reported Q4 EPS of 27 cents, weaker than consensus of 29 cents.

    Apache (APA -0.12%) sold its Argentina operations to YPF Sociedad (YPF +6.12%) for $852 million.

    CenturyLink (CTL +1.55%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 68 cents, better than consensus of 59 cents.

    NVIDIA (NVDA +3.57%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 32 cents, well ahead of consensus of 18 cents.

    MetLife (MET +0.24%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $1.37, better than consensus of $1.30.

    SunPower (SPWR +1.61%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 47 cents, well above consensus of 28 cents.

    Insight Enterprises (NSIT +0.43%) reported Q4 EPS of 57 cents, stronger than consensus of 53 cents.

    Whole Foods Markets (WFM -0.75%) fell over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 42 cents, lower than consensus of 44 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.58-$1.65, below consensus of $1.68.

    Cisco (CSCO +0.62%) fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 47 cents, higher than consensus of 46 cents, but said revenue in the current quarter will be $11.2 billion to $11.5 billion, at the low end of consensus of $11.3 billion.

    Applied Materials (AMAT +0.73%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 23 cents, better than consensus of 22 cents.

    NetApp (NTAP -2.52%) reported Q3 EPS of 75 cents, higher than consensus of 71 cents.

    CBS (CBS +1.56%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, better than consensus of 76 cents.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.44%) this morning are down -9.50 points (-0.52%). The S&P 500 on Wednesday posted a 2-week high after China Jan exports rose +10.6% y/y, well above expectations of +0.1% y/y, which eased concern about slowing Chinese economic growth. Stocks fell back and settled little changed, however, after St. Louis Fed President Bullard said "right now we're on track" to continue tapering bond purchases. Closes: S&P 500 -0.03%, Dow Jones -0.19%, Nasdaq 100 +0.16%.

    Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.19%) this morning are up +8.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday posted a 2-week low on hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said "right now we're on track" to continue tapering bond purchases and "will be able to move out of the program later this year." T-notes were also undercut by supply pressures as the Treasury auctioned $24 billion in 10-year T-notes on Wednesday and will auction $16 billion of T-bonds on Thursday as it concludes the Feb quarterly refunding. Closes: TYH4 -10.50, FVH4 -6.00.

    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.41%) this morning is down -0.341 (-0.42%) at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0070 (+0.51%) at a 2-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.52 (-0.51%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher. EUR/USD fell after Eurozone Dec industrial production slid -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m, and after ECB Council member Coeure said the ECB is considering a negative deposit rate "very seriously." Closes: Dollar index +0.041 (+0.05%), EUR/USD -0.00446 (-0.33%), USD/JPY -0.103 (-0.10%).

    Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 -0.57%) this morning is down -61 cents (-0.61%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.68%) is down -0.0210 (-0.76%). Mar crude and gasoline prices Wednesday closed higher with Mar crude at a 3-3/4 month high and Mar gasoline at a 1-1/4 month high. Bullish factors included (1) increased Chinese oil demand after China Jan crude imports jumped +12% y/y to a record 28.15 MMT, (2) the -2.673 million bbl decline in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a 3-month low of 37.603 million bbl, and (3) the -1.853 million bbl decline in weekly EIA gasoline inventories, a bigger drop than expectations of -10,000 bbl. Closes: CLH4 +0.43 (+0.43%), RBH4 +0.0105 (+0.38%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/13/2014

    US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -1,000 to 330,000, previous -20,000 to 331,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -4,000 to 2.960 million, previous +15,000 to 2.964 million.
     0830 ETJan retail sales expected unch and +0.1% ex autos, Dec +0.2% and +0.7% ex autos.
     0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
     1000 ETDec business inventories expected +0.4%, Nov +0.4%.
     1030 ETFed Chair Janet Yellen testifies on the economy before the Senate Banking Committee.
     1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 30-year TIPS to be auctioned Feb 20 (previous $7 billion).
     1300 ETTreasury auctions $16 billion 30-year T-bonds.
    GER0200 ETRevised German Jan CPI (EU harmonized), previous -0.7% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
    EUR0400 ETECB publishes monthly report.
    CHI2030 ETChina Jan CPI expected +2.4% y/y, Dec +2.5% y/y. Jan PPI expected -1.6% y/y, Dec -1.4% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/13/2014

    Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
    BorgWarner IncBWA USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.711
    Avon Products IncAVP USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.297
    Nielsen Holdings NVNLSN USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.711
    Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co/TheGT USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.63
    Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.723
    International Flavors & Fragrances IncIFF USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.906
    Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide IncHOT US6:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.7
    Discovery Communications IncDISCA US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.897
    PepsiCo IncPEP US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.004
    EQT CorpEQT US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.684
    Apache CorpAPA US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.803
    PepsiCo IncPEP US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Nielsen Holdings NVNLSN US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    WW Grainger IncGWW US8:00January 2014 Sales and Revenue Call2014 
    MetLife IncMET US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Discovery Communications IncDISCA US8:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Avon Products IncAVP US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Emerson Electric CoEMR US9:00Investor ConferenceY 2014 
    Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co/TheGT US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    BorgWarner IncBWA US9:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013 
    Equifax IncEFX USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.912
    American International Group IncAIG USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.965
    Cliffs Natural Resources IncCLF USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.784
    Xcel Energy IncXEL US Roadshow - Day 2Y 2014 
    Consolidated Edison IncED US Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.658
    WW Grainger IncGWW US January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014

    Stocks: TAP, HOT, PEP, TWC, BGC, APA, CTL, NVDA, MET, SPWR, NSIT, WFM, CSCO, AMAT, NTAP, CBS, BWA, AVP, NLSN, GT, IFF, DISCA, EQT, GWW, EMR, EFX, AIG
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