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BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/19

|Includes:ADI, AEP, ALLE, BAC, BRKR, CF, Con-Way Inc. (CNW), COLM, CRDS, DOV, DVN, EIX, ETFC, FLR, FLS, GRMN, HCN, HLF, HST, MAR, NBR, OII, PNRA, SWY, TRVN, WMB, ZLC

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, February 19th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.34%) this morning are down -0.34% and European stocks are down -0.55% as emerging-market currencies dropped after anti-government protests escalated in Ukraine and Thailand. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.52%, Hong Kong +0.34%, China +1.15%, Taiwan +0.24%, Australia +0.29%, Singapore +0.59%, South Korea -0.29%, India +0.43%. China's Shanghai Stock Index erased early losses and rallied up to a 2-month high and closed higher after Chinese money-market rates dropped to a 9-month low. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +0.68%) is up +0.45%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.08%) is down -0.20%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.54%) is down -0.39%. March copper (HGH14 +0.03%) is down -0.12%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.09%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.38%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.17%) are up +9 ticks at a 1-week high.

UK Jan jobless claims fell -27,600, a bigger decline than expectations of -20,000. The Jan claimant count rate fell -0.1 to 3.6%, right on expectations and the lowest in 5 years.

The UK Dec ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 7.2% in the three months through Dec, higher than expectations of unch at 7.1%.

Eurozone Dec construction output rose +0.9% m/m and fell -0.2% y/y, while Nov was revised upward to -0.2% m/m and -1.6% y/y from the originally reported -0.6% m/m and -1.7% y/y.

Japan Jan nationwide department store sales rose +2.9% y/y, the most in 7-months.

The Japan Dec leading index CI was revised down ward to 111.7 from the originally reported 112.1, still the highest level in 6-1/2 years.

The Japan Dec all industry activity index unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today's Jan housing starts report is expected to show a -4.9% decline to 950,000, adding to the -9.8% decline to 999,000 seen in December. Meanwhile, Jan building permits are expected to fall by -1.6% to 975,000, adding to December's decline of -2.6% to 991,000. Today's Jan PPI report is expected to strengthen slightly to +1.2% y/y from +1.1% in December. The Jan core PPI is expected to jump to +1.4% y/y from +1.1% in December.

There are 8 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Devon Energy (consensus $1.08), Host Hotels (0.31), Garmin (0.62), Health Care REIT (0.97), Allegion (0.59), Marriott (0.49), Williams Companies (0.21), Safeway (0.48). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include EnerCom Oil & Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Mitsubishi Tokyo Utility Conference on Tue-Wed, Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference on Tue-Fri, and Barclays Industrial Select Conference on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Con-way (CNW -0.08%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Wunderlich.

Zale (ZLC -0.20%) surged over 40% in pre-market trading after it agreed to be acquired by Signet Jewelers for $1.4 billion or $21 per share.

Garmin (GRMN +2.37%) reported Q4 EPS of 76 cents, stronger than consensus of 62 cents.

Host Hotels & Resorts (HST -0.68%) reported Q4 EPS of 33 cents, better than consensus of 31 cents.

Crossroads (CRDS -1.27%) filed patent infringement suits against Cisco (CSCO -0.66%) , NetApp (NTAP -0.25%) and Quantum (QTM +4.35%) .

Forest Labs reported a 13.2% stake in Trevena (TRVN +0.87%) .

Oceaneering (OII +1.85%) reported Q4 EPS of 86 cents, better than consensus of 84 cents.

CF Industries (CF -2.36%) reported Q4 EPS of $5.71, well ahead of consensus of $4.49.

Panera Bread (PNRA -2.83%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.96, better than consensus of $1.94.

Herbalife (HLF +3.83%) gained 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.28, higher than consensus of $1.25.

Flowserve (FLS -0.21%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.10, stronger than consensus of $1.01.

Fluor (FLR +0.58%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.01, higher than consensus of 98 cents.

Analog Devices (ADI +0.91%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 49 cents, better than consensus of 48 cents.

Bruker (BRKR -0.64%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 31 cents, higher than consensus of 28 cents.

Columbia Sportswear (COLM +2.21%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.05, stronger than consensus of 92 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.34%) this morning are down -6.25 points (-0.34%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday rebounded from early losses and posted a 3-week high as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data was offset by increased M&A activity. The Feb Empire manufacturing index fell -8.03 to 4.48, a bigger decline than expectations of -4.01 to 8.50, and the Feb NAHB housing market index unexpectedly plunged -10 points to a 9-month low of 46. Stocks recovered on increased M&A activity after Actavis Plc agreed to buy Forest Laboratories for $25 billion. Closes: S&P 500 +0.12%, Dow Jones -0.15%, Nasdaq 100 +0.42%.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.17%) this morning are up +9 ticks at a 1-week high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday rose to a 1-week high on speculation the U.S. economy is stumbling after the Feb Empire manufacturing index fell more than expected and the Feb NAHB housing market index unexpectedly plunged to a 9-month low. Closes: TYH4 +10.00, FVH4 +7.00.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is up +0.007 (+0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0012 (-0.09%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.39 (-0.38%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on bigger-than-expected declines in the Feb Empire manufacturing index and the Feb NAHB housing market index. USD/JPY posted a 2-week high as the yen weakened after Japan Q4 GDP was weaker than expected and after the BOJ increased and extended its lending programs, a sign of easier monetary policy. Closes: Dollar index -0.128 (-0.16%), EUR/USD +0.00658 (+0.48%), USD/JPY +0.573 (+0.56%).

Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +0.68%) this morning is up +46 cents (+0.45%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.08%) is down -0.0058 (-0.20%). Mar crude and gasoline prices Tuesday closed higher. Mar crude rose to a 4-month high and Mar gasoline posted a 1-3/4 month nearest-futures high on bullish factors that included (1) a weaker dollar, (2) a rally in the S&P 500 to a 3-week high, and (3) expectations for the EIA to report on Thu that crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -1 million bbl as flows increased through the southern portion of the Keystone XL pipeline from Cushing to the Gulf Coast. Closes: CLH4 +2.13 (+2.12%), RBH4 +0.0270 (+0.96%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/19/2014

US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -2.0% with purchase sub-index -5.0% and refi sub-index -0.2%.
  0830 ET Jan housing starts expected -4.9% to 950,000, Dec -9.8% to 999,000. Jan building permits expected -1.6% to 975,000, Dec -2.6% to 991,000.
  0830 ET Jan PPI expected+0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y. Jan PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
  1215 ET Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook at Mercer University.
  1300 ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks to the Exchequer Club in Washington D.C.
  1400 ET Fed releases minutes from the Jan 28-29 FOMC meeting.
  1900 ET San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economy to the Money Marketeers of NYU.
JPN 0000 ET Revised Japan Dec leading index CI, previous 112.1. Revised Dec coincident index, previous 111.7.
  0000 ET BOJ monthly economic report for Feb.
  0030 ET Japan Jan nationwide department store sales, Dec +1.7% y/y.
  1850 ET Japan Jan trade balance expected -2.487 trillion yen, Dec -1.304 trillion yen. Jan exports expected +12.7% y/y, Dec +15.3% y/y. Jan imports expected +22.7% y/y, Dec +24.7% y/y.
UK 0430 ET Minutes of the Feb 5-6 BOE policy meeting.
  0430 ET UK Jan jobless claims change expected -20,000, Dec -24,000. Jan claimant count rate expected -0.1 to 3.6%, Dec 3.7%.
  0430 ET UK Dec ILO unemployment rate expected unch at 7.1% 3-months through Dec, Nov 7.1% 3-months through Nov. Dec avg weekly earnings expected +1.0% 3-mo avg y/y, Nov +0.9% 3-mo avg y/y. Dec avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.0% 3o avg y/y, Nov +0.9% 3-mo avg y/y.
EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Dec construction output, Nov -0.6% m/m and -1.7% y/y.
CHI 2045 ET China Feb HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing PMI expected unch at 49.5, Jan 49.5.
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U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/19/2014

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Devon Energy Corp DVN US Bef-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 1.081
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc HST US 6:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.313
Garmin Ltd GRMN US 7:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.617
Health Care REIT Inc HCN US 7:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.974
Edison International EIX US 9:00 Investor Meeting Y 2014  
Bank of America Corp BAC US 9:30 Hearing on Bank of Americas $8.5 billion Accord with Mortgage-Bond Investors    
Dover Corp DOV US 9:30 Analyst Day Y 2014  
Health Care REIT Inc HCN US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
CF Industries Holdings Inc CF US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc HST US 10:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Garmin Ltd GRMN US 10:30 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Devon Energy Corp DVN US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Flowserve Corp FLS US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Nabors Industries Ltd NBR US 11:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Allegion PLC ALLE US 17:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.59
Marriott International Inc/DE MAR US 17:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.494
Safeway Inc SWY US 17:00 Q4 2013 Earnings Call Q4 2013  
Williams Cos Inc/The WMB US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.213
Safeway Inc SWY US Aft-mkt Q4 2013 Earnings Release Q4 2013 0.484
American Electric Power Co Inc AEP US   Roadshow - Japan - Day 3 Y 2014  
E*TRADE Financial Corp ETFC US   January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release - Activities Report 2014
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Stocks: CNW, ZLC, GRMN, HST, CRDS, TRVN, OII, CF, PNRA, HLF, FLS, FLR, ADI, BRKR, COLM, DVN, HCN, EIX, BAC, DOV, NBR, ALLE, MAR, SWY, WMB, AEP, ETFC