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BARCHART MORNNG CALL 3/25

|Includes:ADBE, AKAM, ARCH, ASC, BEAM, BMRN, CCL, CSX Corporation (CSX), DIS, EFX, GM, HDS, KBR, LLL, METR, MKC, NAV, NVDA, PNRA, PVH, RLD, SGY, T, UFS, WBA, XEC

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, March 25th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.32%) this morning are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.85% ahead of U.S. data later today on consumer confidence, home prices and new home sales. Gains in European stocks were muted after a gauge of German investor confidence fell for the first time in five months. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.36%, Hong Kong -0.52%. China -0.10%, Taiwan +0.98%, Australia -0.19%, Singapore -0.25%, South Korea -0.30%, India closed for holiday. China's Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 1-month high on speculation the Chinese government will take steps to support economic growth. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.57%) is up +0.37%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.48%) is up +0.44%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.28%) is up +0.34%. May copper (HGK14 +1.49%) is up +1.46%. Agriculture and livestock prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.16%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 unch) are up +1.5 ticks.

The German Mar IFO business climate fell -0.6 to 110.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.4 to 110.9. The Mar IFO current assessment rose +0.8 to 115.2, a bigger increase than expectations of +0.1 to 114.5 and the highest in 1-3/4 years. Mar IFO expectations fell -1.9 to 106.4, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.6 to 107.7.

UK Feb CPI rose +0.5% m/m and +1.7% y/y, right on expectations, with the +1.7% y/y increase the smallest annual gain in 4-1/3 years. Feb core CPI gained +1.7% y/y, higher than expectations of unch at +1.6 y/y.

UK Feb RPI rose +0.6% m/m and +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Feb RPI ex-mortgage interest payments rose +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +2.6% y/y.

UK Feb PPI input prices fell -0.4% m/m and -5.7% y/y, bigger declines than expectations of +0.3% m/m and -5.3% y/y, with the -5.7% y/y decline the largest annual fall in 4-1/3 years.

UK Feb PPI output prices were unch m/m and +0.5% y/y, less than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y. Feb PPI output core prices rose +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, close to expectations of unch m/m and +1.1% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today's Feb new home sales report is expected to show a decline of -4.9% to 445,000, reversing part of January's surprise +9.6% increase to a 5-1/2 year high of 468,000. Today's Jan CaseShiller composite-20 home price index report is expected to show an increase of +0.6% m/m while the Jan FHFA house price index report is expected to show an increase of +0.5% m/m. Today's March U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a +0.4 point increase to 78.5, reversing part of the -1.3 point drop to 78.1 seen in February. Today's March Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a +10 point increase to 4, reversing more than one-half of the sharp -18 point drop to -6 seen in February.

There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: Carnival (consensus -0.08), McCormick (0.58), HD Supply (-0.03), Walgreen (0.93), PVH Corp (1.42). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Emerging Payments Forum on Mon-Tue, TAG Spring Consumer Conference on Tue, Gastech Conference & Exhibition on Mon-Wed, BB&T Capital Markets Commercial & Industrial Conference on Wed, CIBC Retail and Consumer Conference on Wed, JPMorgan Insurance Conference on Wed, Oracle Storage Summit New York on Wed, Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu, and Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

BofA/Merrill added CSX (CSX -0.24%) to its top stock pick list for 2014.

Walgreens (WAG -0.68%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 91 cents, below consensus of 93 cents.

AT&T (T +0.47%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at HSBC.

The NYT reports that General Motors (GM +0.37%) told its customers and families of accident victims that it did not have sufficient evidence to determine that there were defects in its cars, even after the company had definitive evidence of such a defect.

Arch Coal (ACI +3.08%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Jefferies.

Navistar (NAV +0.06%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.

KBR (KBR -0.98%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.

Domtar (UFS +0.08%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.

RealD (RLD -3.39%) and Wanda Cinema Line Corporation announced an extended agreement to install an additional 780 RealD 3D Cinema Systems in China.

Integrated Core Strategies reported a 6% passive stake in Stone Energy (SGY +0.08%) .

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Brazil to 'BBB-' from 'BBB' with a stable outlook on its long-term credit rating.

PL Capital reported a 5.2% stake in Metro Bancorp (METR +0.98%) .

Disney (DIS -1.07%) has agreed to acquire Maker Studios for $500 million.

BioMarin (BMRN -0.30%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman.

Blackstone Holdings I reported a 6% passive stake in Ardmore Shipping (ASC -1.77%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.32%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.20%). The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the China Mar HSBC manufacturing PMI that unexpectedly weakened for the fifth straight month as it fell by -0.4 to an 8-month low of 48.1, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 48.7, and (2) concern the Ukraine crisis may escalate after Ukraine's foreign minister said the risk of war is growing as Russia continues to mass troops along the Ukraine border. Closes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.98%.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 unch) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) supply pressures with $109 billion T-notes to be auctioned this week, and (2) negative carry-over from Fed Chair Yellen's indication last Wednesday that the funds rate might be raised as soon as spring 2015. Closes: TYM4 -1.00, FVM4 -3.00.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.079 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.16%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02 (+0.02%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower. EUR/USD recovered from early losses and closed higher after the Bundesbank stated in its monthly report said that it sees a "substantial strengthening of the overall pace of economic expansion" in Q1 German economic growth. Closes: Dollar index -0.171 (-0.21%), EUR/USD +0.00461 (+0.33%), USD/JPY +0.004 (+0.01%).

May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.57%) this morning is up 37 cents (+0.37%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.48%) is up +0.0128 (+0.44%). May crude and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed. Crude oil prices rose on concern that the closure of the Houston Ship Canal since Saturday due to an oil spill will disrupt refinery operations and lead to reduced production at refineries along the Gulf Coast. Bearish factors included global demand concerns after the Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to an 8-month low and the German manufacturing PMI slipped to its slowest pace in 4 months. Closes: CLK4 +0.14 (+0.14%). RBK4 -0.0139 (-0.48%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/25/2014

US 0900 ET Jan S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.60% m/m and +13.34% y/y, Dec +0.76% m/m and +13.42% y/y.
  0900 ET Jan FHFA house price index expected +0.5% m/m, Dec +0.8% m/m.
  1000 ET March U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.4 to 78.5, Feb -1.3 to 78.1.
  1000 ET Mar Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +10 to 4, Feb -18 to -6.
  1000 ET Feb new home sales expected -4.9% to 445,000, Jan +9.6% to 468,000.
  1300 ET Treasury auctions $32 billion 2-year T-notes.
  1600 ET Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook at the Rutberg Global Summit.
  1900 ET Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Money Marketeers of NYU.
GER 0500 ET German Mar IFO business climate expected -0.4 to 110.9, Feb 111.3. Mar IFO current assessment expected +0.1 to 114.5, Feb 114.4. Mar IFO expectations expected -0.6 to 107.7, Feb 108.3.
UK 0530 ET UK Feb CPI expected +0.5% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Jan -0.6% m/m and +1.9% y/y. Feb core CPI expected +1.6% y/y, Jan +1.6% y/y.
  0530 ET UK Feb RPI expected +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Jan -0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y. Feb RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +2.6% y/y, Jan +2.8% y/y.
  0530 ET UK Feb PPI input prices expected +0.3% m/m and -5.3% y/y, Jan -0.9% m/m and -3.1% y/y.
  0530 ET UK Feb PPI output prices expected +0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +0.9% y/y. Feb PPI output core expected unch m/m and +1.0% y/y, Jan +0.5% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
  0700 ET UK Mar CBI reported sales expected -9 to 28, Feb 37.
EUR 1200 ET ECB President Mario Draghi gives a lecture in Paris.
JPN 1950 ET Japan Feb corporate service price index expected +0.8% y/y, Jan +0.8% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/25/2014

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Carnival Corp CCL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 -0.083
McCormick & Co Inc/MD MKC US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.579
HD Supply Holdings Inc HDS US 6:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 -0.029
Walgreen Co WAG US 7:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.932
McCormick & Co Inc/MD MKC US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
HD Supply Holdings Inc HDS US 8:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014  
Walgreen Co WAG US 8:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Akamai Technologies Inc AKAM US 8:30 Investor Meeting Y 2014  
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc LLL US 9:00 Investor Conference Y 2014  
Carnival Corp CCL US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Panera Bread Co PNRA US 10:30 Investor Day Y 2014  
Beam Inc BEAM US 12:00 Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote Y 2014  
NVIDIA Corp NVDA US 12:00 Investor Day Y 2014  
Adobe Systems Inc ADBE US 17:00 Financial Analyst Briefing Y 2014  
PVH Corp PVH US Aft-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 1.42
Equifax Inc EFX US   Investor Meeting - Boston Y 2014  
Xcel Energy Inc XEL US   Investors Meeting - Day 1 Y 2014  
General Motors Co GM US   GM Recall Documentation Submittal to US House Energy & Commerce Committee  
Stocks: CSX, WBA, T, GM, ARCH, NAV, KBR, UFS, RLD, SGY, METR, DIS, BMRN, ASC, CCL, MKC, HDS, AKAM, LLL, PNRA, BEAM, NVDA, ADBE, PVH, EFX, XEC