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Jim Van Meerten
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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and attended... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/27 0 comments
    Mar 27, 2014 9:56 AM | about stocks: BDX, SIG, LULU, LDOS, ACN, FUL, ESS, AXP, MS, C, HSBC, RBS, SAN, ZION, PAYX, NDAQ, GME, MSFT, SRE, EIX, RHT, VRTX
    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Thursday, March 27th, 2014View Older Reports

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.22%) this morning are up +0.24% and European stocks are up +0.03% as Ukraine reached a preliminary deal with the IMF for up to $27 billion of international support to avert default and limit economic damage from the 4-month long political crisis. Another boost to European stocks was the surge in UK Feb retail sales by more than three times expectations. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.01%, Hong Kong -0.24%, China -0.71%, Taiwan +0.48%, Australia -0.50%, Singapore +0.61%, South Korea +0.85%, India +0.54%. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.63%) is up +0.10%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.50%) is up +0.23%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.68%) is down -0.67% at a 1-1/2 month low on long liquidation fueled by expectations for the Fed to continue to taper QE3. May copper (HGK14 +0.93%) is up +0.96%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.16% at a 3-week low on speculation the ECB at next week's policy meeting may push ahead with additional stimulus measures to weaken the euro. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.09%) are down -2 ticks.

    Eurozone Feb M3 money supply rose +1.3% y/y and +1.2% 3-mon avg, right on expectations. Eurozone Feb lending to companies and households contracted -2.2% y/y, the 22nd consecutive month lending has contracted.

    UK Feb retail sales ex autos rose +1.8% m/m, six times higher than expectations of +0.3% and the biggest increase in 9-months. On an annual basis retail sales ex autos rose +4.2% y/y, better than expectations of +2.9% y/y.

    UK Feb retail sales including autos rose +1.7% m/m, over three times expectations of +0.5% m/m and the largest monthly gain in 9-months. On an annual basis, retail sales including autos rose +3.7% y/y, better than expectations of +2.45 y/y.

    China Feb industrial profits rose +9.4% year-to-date y/y, the smallest increase in over a year.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
    Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small increase of +4,000 to 324,000, adding to last week's increase of +5,000 to 320,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to fall -7,000 to 2.882 million, reversing part of last week's +41,000 increase to 2.889 million. Today's Q4 GDP report is expected to be revised slightly higher by +0.3 points to +2.7% (q/q annualized) from the last estimate of +2.4%. Today's Feb pending home sales report is expected to show an increase of +0.2% m/m, edging a bit higher after the small +0.1% increase seen in January. There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Accenture (consensus $1.04), Leidos Holdings (0.45), Signet Jewelers (2.15), GameStop (1.93), Red Hat (0.37). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu, and Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Baxter International (BAX +2.47%) announced plans to create two separate, independent global healthcare companies; one focused on developing and marketing innovative biopharmaceuticals and the other on life-saving medical products.

    Signet Jewelers (SIG -1.17%) reported Q4 EPS of 2.18, higher than consensus of $2.15.

    lululemon (LULU +0.50%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $1.80-$1.90, weaker than consensus of $2.14.

    Leidos (LDOS +0.37%) reported Q4 EPS of 56 cents, well above consensus of 45 cents.

    Accenture PLC (ACN -0.66%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.03, less than expectations of $1.04, but then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $4.50-$4.62 from $4.44-$4.56, higher than consensus of $4.51.

    H.B. Fuller (FUL -0.78%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 49 cents, less than consensus of 50 cents.

    Essex Property (ESS -2.44%) will replace Cliffs Natural (CLF -2.03%) in the S&P 500 as of the April 1 close.

    American Express (AXP -1.30%) said it will increase its quarterly dividend by 13% to 26 cents per share and that it will repurchase up to $4.4 billion of common shares during 2014 and up to an additional $1 billion in the first quarter of 2015.

    Morgan Stanley (MS -1.17%) said it will double its dividend to 10 cents from 5 cents and also announced a $1 billion stock repurchase plan.

    The Fed said that after its stress tests for this year it rejected the capital plans of Citigroup (C -0.28%) , HSBC North America Holdings (HSBC -0.43%) , RBS Citizens Financial Group (RBS -2.15%) , and Santander Holdings (SAN +0.99%) . The Fed also said it objected to the capital plan of Zions Bancorporation (ZION -1.31%) because the firm did not meet the minimum, post-stress tier-1 common ratio of 5 percent.

    Paychex (PAYX -1.30%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 44 cents, better than consensus of 42 cents.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.22%) this morning are up +4.50 points (+0.24%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday erased an early rally and closed lower after President Obama said Russia's actions in Crimea must be met with condemnation, which raised concerns of escalation of the Ukraine crisis. Stocks had opened higher on bullish factors that included (1) the +2.2% increase in Feb durable goods orders, better than expectations of +0.8%, and (2) comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said the U.S. is in "good shape" to have economic growth of more than +3.0% for the remaining quarters in 2014. Closes: S&P 500 -0.70%, Dow Jones -0.60%, Nasdaq -1.29%.

    Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.09%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed higher. T-notes moved higher on weaker stocks along with strong demand for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.99, higher than the 12-auction average of 2.63 and the highest in 1-1/2 years. Closes: TYM4 +10.50, FVM4 +7.25.

    The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.093 (+0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.16%) at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18 (+0.18%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher. The dollar rose on supportive factors that included (1 the stronger than expected increase in U.S. Feb durable goods orders, and (2) comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who said that the U.S. is in "good shape" to have economic growth of more than +3.0% for the remaining quarters in 2014. Closes: Dollar index +0.088 (+0.11%), EUR/USD -0.0045 (-0.33%), USD/JPY -0.222 (-0.22%).

    May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.63%) this morning is up +10 cents (+0.10%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.50%) is up +0.0067 (+0.23%). May crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher with May crude at a 2-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the -1.3 million bbl drop in crude oil stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a 2-yr low of 28.5 million bbl, and (2) the -5.101 million bbl plunge in EIA gasoline inventories to a 3-1/2 month low of 217.2 million bbl. Bearish factors centered on the +6.619 bbl surge in weekly EIA crude supplies to a 3-1/2 month high of 382 million bbl, the tenth consecutive increase and more than double expectations of a +2.85 million bbl increase. Closes: CLK4 +1.07 (+1.08%). RBK4 +0.0246 (+0.85%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/27/2014
    US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 324,000, previous +5,000 to 320,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -7,000 to 2.882 million, previous +41,000 to 2.889 million.
     0830 ETQ4 GDP expected revised higher to +2.7% (q/q annualized) from +2.4%. Q4 personal consumption expected revised higher to +2.8% from +2.6%. Q4 GDP price index expected unrevised at +1.6%. Q4 GDP PCE expected unrevised at +1.3%.
     0830 ETCleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks at the University of Dayton.
     0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
     1000 ETFeb pending home sales expected +0.2% m/m and -9.0% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and -9.1% y/y.
     1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
     2130 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans delivers a speech at an Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong.
    EUR0500 ETEurozone Feb M3 money supply expected +1.3% y/y and +1.2% 3-month avg, Jan +1.2% y/y and +1.2% 3-month avg.
    UK0530 ETUK Feb retail sales ex autos expected +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y, Jan -1.5% m/m and +4.8% y/y.
     0530 ETUK Feb retail sales including autos expected +0.5% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Jan -1.5% m/m and +4.3% y/y.
     0530 ETUK Jan index of services, Dec +0.2% m/m and +0.8% 3-mon/3-mon.
     2005 ETUK Mar GfK consumer confidence expected +1 to -6, Feb -7.
    JPN1930 ETJapan Feb overall household spending expected +0.1% y/y, Jan +1.1% y/y.
     1930 ETJapan Feb jobless rate expected unch at 3.7%, Jan 3.7%. Feb job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.05, Jan 1.04.
     1930 ETJapan Feb national CPI expected +1.5% y/y, Jan +1.4% y/y. Feb national CPI ex fresh food expected +1.3% y/y, Jan +1.3% y/y. Feb national CPI ex food & energy expected +0.8% y/y, Jan +0.7% y/y.
     1930 ETJapan Mar Tokyo CPI expected +1.2% y/y, Feb +1.1% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.9% y/y, Feb +0.9% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +0.5% y/y, Feb +0.5% y/y.
     1950 ETJapan Feb retail sales expected -0.1% m/m and +3.5% y/y, Jan +1.6% m/m and +4.4% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/27/2014

    Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
    Accenture PLCACN USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.036
    Leidos Holdings IncLDOS USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.446
    Signet Jewelers LtdSIG US6:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.148
    Accenture PLCACN US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014 
    Leidos Holdings IncLDOS US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014 
    NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/TheNDAQ US8:15Investor DayY 2014 
    Signet Jewelers LtdSIG US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014 
    GameStop CorpGME US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.929
    Paychex IncPAYX US10:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    GameStop CorpGME US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014 
    Microsoft CorpMSFT US13:00Microsoft Office For Apple's iPad-Debut  
    Sempra EnergySRE US13:00Analyst ConferenceY 2014 
    Edison InternationalEIX US17:00SONGS OII Settlement Agreement Call  
    Red Hat IncRHT US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014 
    Red Hat IncRHT USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.374
    Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncVRTX US PDUFA, Kalydeco, cystic fibrosis (NYSE:CF) w/ non-G551D CFTR gating mutations  

    Stocks: BDX, SIG, LULU, LDOS, ACN, FUL, ESS, AXP, MS, C, HSBC, RBS, SAN, ZION, PAYX, NDAQ, GME, MSFT, SRE, EIX, RHT, VRTX
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