Tuesday, April 8th, 2014
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.14%) this morning are down -0.15% and European stocks are down -0.98% on concern tensions in Ukraine may escalate after Ukraine sent additional police forces into its eastern regions to quell pro-Russian protesters who seized government buildings in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv this week. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -1.36%, Hong Kong +0.98%, China +2.37%, Taiwan +0.13%, Australia -0.06%, Singapore +0.33%, South Korea +0.22%, India closed for holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell to a 1-week low as exporter stocks weakened after the yen rose to a 1-week high against the dollar when the BOJ refrained from providing additional stimulus measures following its 2-day policy meeting. China's Shanghai Stock index rallied to a 1-1/2 month high on speculation that weak Chinese economic data for Mar will prompt the government to introduce measures to promote growth. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.96%) is up +0.64%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.42%) is up +0.27%. Jun gold (GCM14 +1.09%) is up +1.08% at a 1-1/2 week high. May copper (HGK14 -0.25%) is down -0.07%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.42%) is down -0.30%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.17%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.53% at a 1-week low after the BOJ refrained from providing additional stimulus. The British pound climbed to a 4-week high against the dollar after UK Feb industrial output rose more than expected. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.05%) are down -2 ticks.
In a sign that the European sovereign debt crisis has receded, ECB lending to Portuguese banks fell in Mar for a six month to 45.05 billion euros, the least amount Portuguese lenders have borrowed from the ECB since July 2011.
UK Feb industrial production rose +0.9% m/m, three times expectations of +0.3% m/m and the largest monthly increase in 8 months. On an annual basis, UK Feb industrial production rose +2.7% y/y, better than expectations of +2.2% y/y.
UK Feb manufacturing production rose +1.0% m/m and +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y with the +3.8% y/y gain the largest annual increase in 3 years.
The Japan Mar eco watchers survey current conditions jumped +4.9 to 57.9, a bigger increase than expectations of +0.3 to 53.3 and the highest since the data began in the year 2000. The Mar eco watchers survey outlook of expectations fell -5.3 to 34.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.5 to 39.5 and the lowest in 3 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury today will sell $30 billion in 3-year T-notes. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Alcoa (consensus $0.05), Science Applications (0.65). Equity and industry conferences during the remainder of this week include: BNEF Summit on Mon-Wed, IPAA Oil & Gas Investment Symposium on Tue, Noble Financial NAB Financial Forum on Tue, and New Economic Summit (NES) 2014 on Tue-Wed.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS -0.06%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Nike (NKE -2.76%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
Cisco (CSCO +0.62%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Wunderlich.
Estee Lauder (EL +0.48%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Bernstein.
Statoil (STO -1.81%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Societe Generale.
Infineon (IFNNY -1.17%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Eli Lilly (LLY -0.66%) fell over 2% in European trading after a federal-court jury said that Eli Lilly and its partner Takeda Pharmaceutical must pay a combined $9 billion in punitive damages after they hid the cancer risks of their Actos diabetes medicine.
Glen Capital Partners reported a 7.1% passive stake in LMI Aerospace (LMIA +1.94%) .
Barron's reported that four Oracle (ORCL -1.28%) insiders sold 1.69 million shares of the company's stock for $69.5 million.
SAC Capital reported a 5.5% passive stake in Cytokinetics (CYTK +0.23%) .
AK Steel (AKS -5.20%) said that effective immediately for new orders it will increase the current spot market base price for its hot roll carbon steel to a minimum of $700 per ton.
A. Schulman (SHLM +0.25%) gained over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS ex-items of 39 cents, better than consensus of 33 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $2.23-$2.28 from $2.08-$2.13, well above consensus of $2.16.
Whole Foods Markets (WFM -1.59%) was added to the Key Calls list at UBS who also has a 'Buy' rating on the stock with a $70 price target.
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.14%) this morning are down -2,75 points (-0.15%). The S&P 500 on Monday fell to a 3-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) continued selling of biotechnology and computer and internet-related stocks on concern about their high multiples and profit taking pressure, and (2) concern that a slowdown in Chinese economic growth may slow the global economy after the World Bank reduced its Chinese 2014 GDP estimate to +7.6% from October's +7.7% estimate. Closes: S&P 500 -1.08%, Dow Jones -1.02%, Nasdaq -0.89%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.05%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday rallied to a 2-week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the drop in the S&P 500 to a 3-week low, which fueled safe-haven demand for T-notes, and (2) follow-through buying from Friday's slightly weaker-than-expected payroll report. Closes: TYM4 +6.00, FVM4 +4.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.42%) this morning is down -0.240 (-0.30%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0023 (+0.17%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.55 (-0.53%) at a 1-week low. The dollar index on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) negative carry-over from Friday's smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. Mar payrolls, and (2) strength in EUR/USD after ECB Executive Board member Merscsh said that deflation risks aren't imminent in the Eurozone and after ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that there's no "immediate need" for further ECB action on additional stimulus. Closes: Dollar index -0.191 (-0.24%), EUR/USD +0.00387 (+0.28%), USD/JPY -0.234 (-0.23%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.96%) this morning is up +64 cents (+0.64%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.42%) is up +0.0080 (+0.27%). May crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the slide in the S&P 500 index to a 3-week low, which undercuts confidence in the economic outlook and thus energy demand, and (2) the World Bank's cut in its China 2014 GDP estimate to 7.6% from 7.7% forecast in Oct, which signals reduced energy consumption in the world's second-biggest crude oil consumer. Closes: CLK4 -0.70 (-0.69%). RBK4 -0.0053 (-0.18%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/08/2014
|US||1300 ET||Treasury auctions $30 billion 3-year T-notes.|
|1330 ET||Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks to the Rochester Chamber of Commerce.|
|1445 ET||Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser delivers a keynote speech at the Wharton Financial Institutions Center titled Enhancing Prudential Standards in Financial Regulation.|
|JPN||0030 ET||Japan Mar bankruptcies, Feb -14.62% y/y.|
|0100 ET||Japan Mar eco watchers survey current expected +0.3 to 53.3. Mar eco watchers survey outlook expected -0.5 to 39.5|
|n/a||BOJ announces interest rate decision following 2-day policy meeting.|
|UK||0430 ET||UK Feb industrial production expected +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +2.9% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK Feb manufacturing production expected +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y, Jan +0.4% m/m and +3.3% y/y.|
|1000 ET||UK Mar NIEST GDP estimate, Feb +0.8% q/q.|
|1901 ET||UK Mar BRC shop price index expected -1.5% y/y, Feb -1.4% y/y.|
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/08/2014
|Company Name||Ticker||Time||Event Description||Period||Estimate|
|Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The||BK US||4/8/2014||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Alcoa Inc||AA US||4/8/2014||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.051|
|Science Applications International Corp||SAIC US||4/8/2014||Q4 2014 Earnings Release||Q4 2014||0.648|
|IDEX Corp||IEX US||4/8/2014||Annual General Meeting|
|Questar Corp||STR US||4/8/2014||Roadshow - Day 1||Y 2014|
|Principal Financial Group Inc||PFG US||4/8/2014||Roadshow -Tokyo Day 2||Y 2014|
|Brocade Communications Systems Inc||BRCD US||4/8/2014||Annual General Meeting|