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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 4/29 0 comments
    Apr 29, 2014 9:48 AM | about stocks: BMY, MRK, ADM, GD, OMI, HIG, Z, PRE, HLF, KAMN, ZIPR, AMP, CLGX, BWLD, PCL, VLO, GAS, LYB, BSX, ETN, HCBK, GT, FRX, HRS, CNX, XYL, ROK, COH, WAT, SPGI, PH, CMI, PCAR, AFL, EBAY, DNB, OI, EIX, TE, ACE, BXP, STX, X, GNW, MAC, ESRX, FISV

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Tuesday, April 29th, 2014

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.33%) this morning are up +0.32% and European stocks are up +0.87% after Deutsche Bank AG's earnings beat estimates and after Nokia Oyj forecast higher network sales. Another positive for European stocks was an upward revision to Eurozone Apr consumer confidence to a 6-1/2 year high. European government bonds fell after an unnamed Eurozone official said that ECB President Draghi told a private meeting with German lawmakers that a quantitative-easing program isn't imminent and is relatively unlikely for now. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan closed for Showa Day holiday, Hong Kong +1.45%, China +1.10%, Taiwan +0.71%, Australia -0/89%, Singapore -0.15%, South Korea -0.39%, India -0.73%. China's Shanghai Stock Index rebounded from a 1-1/4 month low and closed higher on speculation the government will take steps to bolster the economy, while the Chinese yuan dropped to 6.2591 per dollar, the lowest in 16-1/2 months. Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM14 +0.55%) is up +0.40%. Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.29%) is up +0.19%. Jun gold (GCM14 -0.65%) is down -0.66%. July copper (HGN14 -0.24%) is down -0.15%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is down -0.05%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.26%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.24%) are down -10.5 ticks.

    Eurozone Apr consumer confidence was revised higher by +0.1 to -8.6 from the originally reported -8.7, the highest in 6-1/2 years.

    Eurozone Apr economic confidence unexpectedly fell by -0.5 to 102.0, weaker than expectations of +0.5 to 102.9. The Apr business climate indicator unexpectedly fell by -0.13 to 0.27, weaker than expectations of +0.3 to 0.42

    Eurozone Mar M3 money supply rose +1.1% y/y and +1.2% 3-month average, less than expectations of +1.4% y/y and +1.3% 3-month average.

    UK Q1 GDP rose +0.8% q/q and +3.1% y/y, slightly less than expectations of +0.9% q/q and +3.2% y/y.

    German May GfK consumer confidence remained unchanged at a 7-1/3 year high of 8.5, right on expectations.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's Feb CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index is expected to show a another solid increase of +0.80% m/m and +13.00% y/y, which would be slightly below the increases seen in January of +0.85% m/m and +13.24% y/y. Today's April U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show an increase of +1.0 points to 83.3, adding to the +4.0 point increase to 82.3 seen in March. The market is unanimously expecting the FOMC at its Tue/Wed meeting to cut QE3 by another $10 billion to $45 billion and leave its funds rate target range unchanged at zero to 0.25%.

    There are 37 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include eBay (consensus $0.67), ADM (0.74), Valero (1.39), Merck (0.79), Rockwell Automation (1.44), Bristol-Myers (0.43), Boston Properties (1.23). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Retail and Consumer Discretionary Conference on Tue-Wed, and Linley Group Mobile Conference on Wed-Thu.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY -0.28%) reported Q1 EPS of 46 cents, higher than consensus of 43 cents.

    Merck & Co. (MRK -0.98%) reported Q1 EPS of 88 cents, stronger than consensus of 79 cents.

    Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM -0.09%) reported Q1 EPS of 55 cents, well below consensus of 74 cents.

    General Dynamics (GD -1.49%) was awarded a $17.6 billion contract from the U.S. Navy for the construction of 10 additional Virginia-class submarines.

    Owens & Minor (OMI +1.37%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 44 cents, weaker than consensus of 46 cents.

    Hartford Financial (HIG -1.46%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.18, well above consensus of 93 cents.

    Tiger Global reported a 9.5% passive stake in Zillow (Z -1.85%) .

    PartnerRe (PRE -0.06%) reported Q1 operating EPS of $3.36, much better than consensus of $2.56.

    Herbalife (HLF +1.76%) climbed nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.50, well above consensus of $1.29, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $6.10-$6.30 from $5.85-$6.05.

    Kaman (KAMN -0.73%) reported Q1 EPS of 42 cents, higher than consensus of 41 cents.

    Charles Baker reported a 5.6% stake in ZipRealty (ZIPR -1.79%) .

    Ameriprise (AMP -0.02%) reported Q1 EPS of $2.01, much better than consensus of $1.88.

    CoreLogic (CLGX -0.25%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 17 cents, higher than consensus of 16 cents.

    Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD -2.29%) rose 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of $1.49, well above consensus of $1.34, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 net earnings growth rate to 25% from 20%.

    Plum Creek Timber (PCL +0.35%) reported Q1 EPS of 17 cents, higher than consensus of 15 cents.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.33%) this morning are up +6.00 points (+0.32%). The S&P 500 index on Monday recovered from a 1-1/2 week low and closed higher. Supportive factors for stocks included (1) increased M&A activity after Pfizer proposed buying AstraZeneca for about $98.7 billion, and (2) the +3.4% m/m increase in U.S. Mar pending home sales, a bigger increase than expectations of +1.0% m/m and the largest monthly gain in 2-3/4 years. Gains in stocks were limited on concern over escalation of the Ukraine crisis after the U.S and the EU imposed additional sanctions against Russia. Closes: S&P 500 +0.32%, Dow Jones +0.53%, Nasdaq +0.34%.

    Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.24%) this morning are down -10.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed little changed. Negative factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Mar pending home sales, and (2) expectations for the Fed to taper QE3 by $10 billion on Wed. T-notes recovered from their worst levels on increased safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 tumbled to a 1-1/2 week low. Closes: TYM4 +4.5, FVM4 +1.75.

    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is down -0.043 (-0.05%%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0009 (+0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.27 (+0.26%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -0.04 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.0017 (+0.13%), USD/JPY +0.31 (+0.31%). Negative factors for the dollar included (1) strength in EUR/USD which rose to a 2-week high on reduced speculation the ECB will start a QE program after ECB Council member Knot said that more evidence is needed on the effectiveness of quantitative easing and if the Eurozone inflation rate falls any further, the ECB could lower the deposit rate below 0%, and (2) strength in the British pound which rose to a 4-1/3 year high against the dollar as a jump in the UK Apr Lloyds business barometer to a record high boosted the prospects for stronger British economic growth.

    Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 +0.55%) this morning is up +40 cents (+0.40%). Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.29%) is up +0.0056 (+0.19%). Jun crude and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed. Jun crude recovered from a 2-1/2 week low and closed higher on bullish factors that included (1) expectations that weekly EIA data on Wed will show crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell to a fresh 4-1/2 year low, and (2) the fall in the dollar index fell to a 2-week low. Jun gasoline fell to a 1-1/2 week low on speculation that new economic sanctions levied by the U.S. and the EU against Russia won't disrupt global oil supplies: Closes: CLM4 +0.24 (+0.24%). RBM4 -0.0402 (-1.33%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/29/2014

    US 0900 ET Feb S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.80% m/m and +13.00% y/y, Jan +0.85% m/m and +13.24% y/y.
      1000 ET Apr consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +1.0 to 83.3, Mar +4.0 to 82.3.
      1300 ET Treasury auctions $15 billion 2-year floating-rate notes.
      n/a FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
    GER 0200 ET German May GfK consumer confidence expected unch at 8.5, Apr 8.5.
      0800 ET German Apr CPI (EU harmonized) expected -0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Mar +0.3% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
    EUR 0400 ET Eurozone Mar M3 money supply expected +1.5% y/y and +1.3% 3-mo avg, Feb +1.3% y/y and +1.2% 3-mo avg.
      0500 ET Eurozone Apr economic confidence expected +0.5 to 102.9, Mar 102.4. Apr business climate indicator expected +0.03 to 0.42, Mar 0.39.
      0500 ET Revised Eurozone Apr consumer confidence, previous -8.7.
    UK 0430 ET UK Q1 GDP expected +0.9% q/q and +3.2% y/y, Q4 +0.7% q/q and +2.7% y/y.
      0430 ET UK Feb index of services expected +0.3% m/m and +0.9% 3-mo/3-mo, Jan +0.4% m/m and +0.9% 3-mo/3-mo.
      1905 ET UK Apr GfK consumer confidence expected +1 to -4, Mar -5.
    JPN 1915 ET Japan Apr Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Mar 53.9.
      1950 ET Japan Mar industrial production expected +0.5% m/m and +7.2% y/y, Feb -2.3% m/m and +7.0% y/y.
      2130 ET Japan Mar labor cash earnings, Feb unch y/y.
      n/a Japanese markets closed for Showa Day holiday.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/29/2014

    Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
    Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.741
    Valero Energy Corp VLO US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.394
    AGL Resources Inc GAS US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.822
    LyondellBasell Industries NV LYB US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.744
    Boston Scientific Corp BSX US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.177
    Eaton Corp PLC ETN US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.002
    Hudson City Bancorp Inc HCBK US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.072
    Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co/The GT US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.601
    Forest Laboratories Inc FRX US Bef-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.434
    Merck & Co Inc MRK US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.788
    Harris Corp HRS US 6:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.191
    CONSOL Energy Inc CNX US 6:45 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.193
    Xylem Inc/NY XYL US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.32
    Rockwell Automation Inc ROK US 7:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.444
    Coach Inc COH US 7:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.615
    Waters Corp WAT US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.116
    McGraw Hill Financial Inc MHFI US 7:15 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.873
    Parker Hannifin Corp PH US 7:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.627
    Bristol-Myers Squibb Co BMY US 7:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.432
    Cummins Inc CMI US 7:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.672
    PACCAR Inc PCAR US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.759
    Aflac Inc AFL US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.582
    eBay Inc EBAY US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.668
    Dun & Bradstreet Corp/The DNB US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.339
    Owens-Illinois Inc OI US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.605
    Edison International EIX US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.815
    TECO Energy Inc TE US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.229
    ACE Ltd ACE US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 2.148
    Boston Properties Inc BXP US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.23
    Seagate Technology PLC STX US Aft-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.25
    United States Steel Corp X US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.304
    Genworth Financial Inc GNW US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.356
    Macerich Co/The MAC US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.844
    Express Scripts Holding Co ESRX US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.005
    Fiserv Inc FISV US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.743
    Stocks: BMY, MRK, ADM, GD, OMI, HIG, Z, PRE, HLF, KAMN, ZIPR, AMP, CLGX, BWLD, PCL, VLO, GAS, LYB, BSX, ETN, HCBK, GT, FRX, HRS, CNX, XYL, ROK, COH, WAT, SPGI, PH, CMI, PCAR, AFL, EBAY, DNB, OI, EIX, TE, ACE, BXP, STX, X, GNW, MAC, ESRX, FISV
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