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BARCHART MORNING CALL 4/30

|Includes:ACE, ADP, ADT, AFL, AGN, AMC, ANTM, BXP, CH, COLM, D, DNB, EBAY, EIX, EQT, ESRX, EXC, GNW, GRMN, HES, HSP, IP, MAR, MNI, MPC, MRO, NCR, NEE, NFX, NI, OI, PBI, PSX, RWT, SEE, SO, SPGI, STX, THG, TMH, TSO, TWTR, Time Warner Inc. (TWX), WEC, WRK, X

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.08%) this morning are down -0.11% as weaker-than-expected earnings results from EBAY and Twitter drag U.S. stocks lower, and European stocks are down -0.38%, led by a slide in bank stocks with BNP Paribas SA down over 3% after France's largest bank said it may need to pay much more than the $1.1 billion it set aside for alleged U.S. sanctions breaches. Russia's Micex Stock Index fell and the ruble weakened after the IMF cut its Russian 2014 GDP estimate to +0.2% from an earlier forecast of +1.3%, citing the risk of escalating sanctions. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.11%, Hong Kong -1.42%, China +0.01%, Taiwan -0.81%, Australia +0.05%, Singapore +0.83%, South Korea -0.18%, India -0.22%. The BOJ refrained from additional stimulus measures following its 2-day meeting today with BOJ Governor Kuroda saying the Japanese economy is weathering the sales-tax increase and he predicts inflation will reach the BOJ's goal next year. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -1.14%) is down -0.84% at a 3-week low on expectations for U.S. crude supplies to climb +2.2 million bbl when the EIA reports weekly inventory data later today. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.58%) is down -0.50%. Jun gold (GCM14 -0.42%) is down -0.29%. July copper (HGN14 -0.16%) is up +0.02%. Agriculture and livestock prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.12% as it recovered from a 3-week low on speculation that the +0.7% y/y increase in the Eurozone Apr CPI estimate is not low enough to warrant additional ECB easing. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.06%) are down -3.5 ticks.

The Eurozone Apr CPI estimate rose at a +0.7% y/y pace, less than expectations of +0.8% y/y, but higher than the +0.5% y/y increase from Mar. Apr core CPI rose at a +1.0% y/y pace, right on expectations.

German Apr unemployment fell -25,000, a bigger drop than expectations of -10,000 and the Apr unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.

German Mar retail sales fell -0.7% m/m, right on expectations, and an annual basis unexpectedly fell -1.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.7% y/y and the biggest y/y decline in 9 months.

Japan Mar industrial production rose +0.3% m/m and +7.0% y/y, less than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +7.2% y/y.

Japan Mar labor cash earnings rose +0.7% y/y, well above expectations of +0.1% y/y and the largest increase in 2 years.

UK Apr GfK consumer confidence rose +2 to -3, better than expectations of +1 to -4 and the highest in 6-3/4 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today's April ADP employment report is expected to show a solid increase of +210,000, improving from +191,000 in March. The ADP report dipped to +121,000 in January but then recovered to +178,000 in Feb and +191,000 in March. Today's Q1 GDP is expected to dip to +1.2% (q/q annualized) from +2.6% in Q1 due to the disruptions seen over the winter from the bad weather. Meanwhile, Q1 personal consumption is expected to fall to +2.0% from +3.3% in Q4 as consumer spending was dampened by the bad winter weather. Today's April Chicago PMI report is expected to show a +1.1 point increase to 57.0, recovering some of the -3.9 point decline to 55.9 seen in March. The market is unanimously expecting the FOMC today to cut QE3 by another $10 billion to $45 billion and leave its funds rate target range unchanged at zero to 0.25%.

There are 28 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Time Warner (consensus $0.88), ADP (1.08), Exelon (0.68), International Paper (0.54), Garmin (0.44), Southern Co (0.56), Phillips 66 (1.35), Murphy Oil (0.97), Equity Residential (0.71), Williams Companies (0.24), MetLife (1.40). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Retail and Consumer Discretionary Conference on Tue-Wed, and Linley Group Mobile Conference on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Time Warner (TWX -0.52%) reported Q1 EPS of 97 cents, better than consensus of 88 cents.

WellPoint (WLP +0.45%) reported Q1 EPS of $2.30, stronger than consensus of $2.08.

Genworth (GNW +2.35%) reported Q1 operating EPS of 39 cents, higher than consensus of 35 cents.

Marriott (MAR +1.16%) reported Q1 EPS of 57 cents, better than consensus of 51 cents.

Columbia Sportswear (COLM +2.88%) reported Q1 EPS of 63 cents, nearly double consensus of 33 cents.

U.S. Steel (X +2.37%) reported Q1 EPS of 34 cents, higher than consensus of 32 cents.

Hound Partners reported a 7.08% passive stake in Tesoro (TSO -0.21%) .

Owens-Illinois (OI +0.13%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 62 cents, better than consensus of 61 cents.

Hanover Insurance (THG +0.48%) reported Q1 operating EPS of $1.05, higher than consensus of 96 cents.

Team Health (TMH -0.50%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 54 cents, stronger than consensus of 50 cents.

NCR (NCR -1.60%) reported Q1 non-GAAP EPS of 50 cents, higher than consensus of 49 cents.

eBay (EBAY +1.68%) dropped over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 70 cents, better than consensus of 67 cents, but then said Q2 revenue would be $4.325 billion-$4.425 billion, at the low end of consensus of $4.4 billion.

Express Scripts (ESRX +0.59%) fell oveer 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 99 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS view to $4.82-$4.94 from $4.88-$5.00, at the low end of consensus of $4.89.

AMC Entertainment (AMC -0.49%) unexpectedly reported a Q1 EPS loss of -5 cents, weaker than consensus of a 2 cent gain.

Twitter (TWTR +4.64%) slumped 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 0 cents, better than consensus for a -3 cent loss, but then said it sees fiscal 2014 revenue of $1.2 billion-$1.25 billion, on the low end of consensus of $1.24 billion.

Edison International (EIX -0.54%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 90 cents, better than consensus of 82 cents.

Seagate (STX +1.69%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.34, higher than consensus of $1.25.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.08%) this morning are down -2.00 points (-0.11%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) strong Q1 company earnings results as 74% of the 274 S&P 500 companies that have posted Q1 earnings results thus far have beaten estimates, and (2) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after Moody's Investors Service raised its outlook on the Greek banking system to stable from negative and after Eurozone Apr consumer confidence was revised higher by +0.1 to a 6-1/2 year high of -8.6. Limiting gains in stocks was the unexpected -1.6 point decline in U.S. Apr consumer confidence (Conference Board) to 82.3, weaker than expectations of a +1.0 point increase to 83.3. Closes: S&P 500 +0.48%, Dow Jones +0.53%, Nasdaq +0.82%.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.06%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks ahead of the outcome of today's FOMC meeting. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks rallied, and (2) expectations for the Fed to taper QE3 by $10 billion on Wed. T-note prices recovered from their worst levels after U.S. Apr consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. Closes: TYM4 -3.0, FVM4 -2.50.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.068 (-0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0017 (+0.12%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06 (-0.06%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher: Dollar index +0.125 (+0.16%), EUR/USD -0.0030 (-0.28%), USD/JPY +0.149 (+0.15%). Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) weakness in EUR/USD after German Apr CPI rose less than expected, which increases deflation concerns in the Eurozone and fueled speculation the ECB may boost stimulus measures when it convenes next week, and (2) the rally in USD/JPY to a 3-week high after a rally in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen.

Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 -1.14%) this morning is down -85 cents (-0.84%) at a 3-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.58%) is down -0.0151 (=0.50%). Jun crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) expectations that weekly EIA data on Wed will show crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell to a fresh 4-1/2 year low, and (2) expectations for weekly EIA gasoline inventories on Wed to fall 450,000 bbl to a new 5-month low: Closes: CLM4 +0.44 (+0.44%). RBM4 +0.0216 (+0.72%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/30/2014

US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -3.3% with purchase sub-index -2.6% and refi sub-index -3.7%.
  0815 ET Apr ADP employment change expected +210,000, Mar +191,000.
  0830 ET Q1 employment cost index expected +0.5%, Q4 +0.5%.
  0830 ET Q1 GDP expected +1.2% (q/q annualized), Q4 +2.6%. Q1 personal consumption expected +2.0%, Q4 +3.3%. Q1 GDP price index expected +1.6%, Q4 +1.6%, Q1 core PCE deflator expected +1.2%, Q4 +1.3%.
  0900 ET Treasury announces amounts of 3-year T-notes (previous $30 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned in the Treasurys quarterly refunding May 6-8.
  0945 ET Apr Chicago PMI expected +1.1 to 57.0, Mar -3.9 to 55.9.
  1030 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
  1400 ET FOMC announces policy decision. QE3 expected to be cut by another $10 billion to $45 billion ($25 bln of Treasuries, $20 bln of MBS). Federal funds rate target range of zero to 0.25% expected unchanged.
  1530 ET Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Brookings Institute on Liquidity and the Role of the Lender of Last Resort.
JPN 0000 ET Japan Mar vehicle production, Feb +7.1% y/y.
  0100 ET Japan Mar construction orders, Feb +12.3% y/y.
  0100 ET Japan Mar housing starts expected -2.7% y/y to 894,000, Feb +1.0% y/y to 919,000.
  0230 ET BOJ chief Kuroda after BOJ policy meeting delivers press briefing after BOJ releases its semi-annual outlook report.
GER 0200 ET German Mar retail sales expected -0.7% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Feb +1.3% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
  0355 ET German Apr unemployment change expected -10,000, Mar -12,000. Apr unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%, Mar 6.7%.
EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Apr CPI estimate expected +0.8% y/y, Mar +0.5% y/y. Apr core CPI expected +1.0% y/y, Mar core CPI +0.7% y/y.
CHI 2130 ET China Apr manufacturing PMI (National Bureau of Statistics) expected +0.2 to 50.5, Mar +0.1 to 50.3.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/30/2014

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Time Warner Inc TWX US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.88
Hess Corp HES US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.014
Hospira Inc HSP US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.494
MeadWestvaco Corp MWV US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.231
Automatic Data Processing Inc ADP US Bef-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.08
Exelon Corp EXC US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.676
Dominion Resources Inc/VA D US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.966
NextEra Energy Inc NEE US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.07
International Paper Co IP US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.539
WellPoint Inc WLP US 6:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 2.075
NiSource Inc NI US 6:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.787
ADT Corp/The ADT US 7:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.434
Actavis plc ACT US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 3.229
Wisconsin Energy Corp WEC US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.845
Garmin Ltd GRMN US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.439
Southern Co/The SO US 7:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.564
Sealed Air Corp SEE US 7:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.247
Dun & Bradstreet Corp/The DNB US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Owens-Illinois Inc OI US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Pitney Bowes Inc PBI US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.404
Pitney Bowes Inc PBI US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
EQT Corp EQT US 8:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Genworth Financial Inc GNW US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Phillips 66 PSX US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.345
WellPoint Inc WLP US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Automatic Data Processing Inc ADP US 8:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
ACE Ltd ACE US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
ADT Corp/The ADT US 8:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
United States Steel Corp X US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Actavis plc ACT US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Express Scripts Holding Co ESRX US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Aflac Inc AFL US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
NiSource Inc NI US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Hospira Inc HSP US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
NextEra Energy Inc NEE US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
International Paper Co IP US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Hess Corp HES US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Marathon Petroleum Corp MPC US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
MeadWestvaco Corp MWV US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Marriott International Inc/DE MAR US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Sealed Air Corp SEE US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Dominion Resources Inc/VA D US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
EMC Corp/MA EMC US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Boston Properties Inc BXP US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Time Warner Inc TWX US 10:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Accenture PLC ACN US 10:30 Accenture Digital and Highlights Companys Technology Call    
Garmin Ltd GRMN US 10:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Exelon Corp EXC US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Newfield Exploration Co NFX US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Marathon Oil Corp MRO US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
WW Grainger Inc GWW US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Phillips 66 PSX US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
McGraw Hill Financial Inc MHFI US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Ameriprise Financial Inc AMP US 12:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Southern Co/The SO US 13:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Macerich Co/The MAC US 13:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Wisconsin Energy Corp WEC US 14:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
CBRE Group Inc CBG US 16:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.166
Allegion PLC ALLE US 17:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.44
CBRE Group Inc CBG US 17:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Western Digital Corp WDC US 17:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.876
Western Digital Corp WDC US 17:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
Murphy Oil Corp MUR US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.971
Equity Residential EQR US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.714
Beam Inc BEAM US Aft-mkt Under Armor Inc. Replaces Beam Inc. in S&P 500    
Tesoro Corp TSO US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.387
Williams Cos Inc/The WMB US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.243
Lincoln National Corp LNC US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.296
MetLife Inc MET US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.395
SLM Corp SLM US Aft-mkt Navient Corp. Replaces SLM Corp. in S&P 500    
BorgWarner Inc BWA US   Annual General Meeting    
Ball Corp BLL US   Annual General Meeting    
TECO Energy Inc TE US   Annual General Meeting
Stocks: TWX, ANTM, GNW, MAR, COLM, X, TSO, OI, THG, TMH, NCR, EBAY, ESRX, AMC, TWTR, EIX, STX, HES, HSP, WRK, ADP, EXC, D, NEE, IP, NI, ADT, AGN, WEC, GRMN, MNI, SO, CH, SEE, DNB, PBI, EQT, PSX, ACE, RWT, AFL, MPC, BXP, NFX, MRO, SPGI