Thursday, May 1st, 2014
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 unch) this morning are up 0.08% and UK stocks are up +0.25% on signs of economic strength after the Apr UK manufacturing PMI grew more than expected and expanded at the fastest pace in 5 months. Gains in stocks were muted and most commodities fell after Chinese manufacturing activity expanded less than forecast last month. The rest of Europe is closed today for the Labour Day holiday. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.27%, Australia -0.73%, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan Singapore, South Korea and India are all closed for holidays. The situation in Ukraine remains tense after Ukraine's Interior Ministry said that as many as 1,000 gunmen have seized buildings in more than ten cities in eastern Ukraine. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -0.67%) is down -0.49% at a 4-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.79%) is down -0.76% at a 3-week low. Jun gold GCM14 -0.91%) is down -0.83%. July copper (HGN14 +0.13%) is down -0.10%. Agriculture and livestock prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is down -0.01% at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06% at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01%. The British pound climbed to a 4-3/4 year high against the dollar after UK Apr manufacturing PMI beat expectations and UK Apr house prices rose at the fastest pace in 6-3/4 years. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.05%) are down -2.5 ticks.
The China Apr manufacturing PMI rose +0.1 to 50.4, less than expectations of +0.2 to 50.5.
Japan Apr vehicle sales dropped -11.4% y/y, the biggest decline in 9-months, as consumers stayed away after Japan raised the consumption tax by 3 percentage points to 8.0% on Apr 1.
UK Apr nationwide house prices rose +1.2% m/m and +10.9% y/y, more than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +9.8% y/y, with the +10.9% y/y increase the largest annual gain in 6-3/4 years.
UK Apr Markit PMI manufacturing rose +1.5 to 57.3, better than expectations of +0.1 to 55.4 and the fastest pace of expansion in 5 months.
UK Mar net consumer credit climbed 1.1 billion pounds, more than expectations of 0.6 billion pounds and the most in 1-1/2 years.
UK Mar mortgage approvals were 67,100, less than expectations of 72,000.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -9,000 to 320,000, reversing part of last week's +24,000 increase to 329,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show an increase of +20,000 to 2.700 million, reversing part of last week's decline of -61,000 to 2.680 million. Today's April ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a +0.6 point increase to 54.3, adding to the +0.5 point increase to 53.7 seen in March. Today's March personal spending report is expected to show a solid increase of +0.6%, adding to the increase of +0.3% seen in February. Meanwhile, March personal income is expected to show an increase of +0.4%, adding to the +0.3% increase seen in February. Today's March PCE deflator, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise slightly to +1.1% y/y from +0.9% in February. Meanwhile, today's March core PCE deflator is expected to edge higher to +1.2% y/y from +1.1% in February. Today's April total vehicle sales report is expected to ease to 16.20 million from 16.33 million in March.
There are 47 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include MasterCard (consensus $0.72), Marathon Petroleum (1.06), PG&E (0.63), ConnocoPhillips (1.55), Textron (0.34), CME Group (0.83), Motorola Solutions (0.50), Exxon Mobil (1.88), Kellogg (0.97), Kraft Foods (0.76). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Linley Group Mobile Conference on Wed-Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Viacom (VIAB +1.52%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.08, better than consensus of $1.05.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC -0.46%) reported Q1 EPS of 81 cents, weaker than consensus of $1.06.
ConocoPhillips (COP -0.50%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.81, well above consensus of $1.55.
Con-way (CNW +0.93%) reported Q1 EPS of 20 cents, higher than consensus of 16 cents.
CBRE Group (CBG +0.95%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 25 cents, well above consensus of 17 cents.
Amdocs (DOX +1.37%) reported Q2 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 78 cents.
Weight Watchers (WTW -3.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 31 cents, over three times consensus of 9 cents.
Fortune Brands (FBHS -0.65%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 25 cents, well below consensus of 32 cents.
Western Digital (WDC +0.72%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.94, better than consensus of $1.88.
Equinix (EQIX +1.31%) reported Q1 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 72 cents.
Hologic (HOLX +0.10%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 37 cents, higher than consensus of 33 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.37-$1.40 from $1.34 to $1.38, above Consensus of $1.37.
MetLife (MET +0.98%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.37, below consensus of $1.40.
Boyd Gaming (BYD +0.34%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -4 cents, weaker than consensus of a 1 cent gain.
Whiting Petroleum (WLL -0.34%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.05, better than consensus of 97 cents.
Reuters reports that Merck (MRK -0.27%) is working with investment banks as it is looking to sell a "big portfolio of mature drugs."
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 unch) this morning are up +1.50 points (+0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +220,000 increase in the Apr ADP employment report, more than expectations of +210,000 and the most in 5 months, and (2) the +7.1 point gain in the April Chicago Apr manufacturing PMI to 63.0, more than expectations of +1.1 to 57.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months. Limiting gains was the +0.1% (q/q annualized) increase in U.S. Q1 GDP, weaker than expectations of +1.2% and the slowest pace of growth since Q4-2012. Closes: S&P 500 +0.30%, Dow Jones +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.22%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.05%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday posted a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +0.3% increase in the Q1 employment cost index, less than expectations of +0.5% and the slowest pace of increase in 2-1/2 years, and (2) the slower-than-expected increase in U.S. Q1 GDP of +0.1% (q/q annualized), which fueled ideas the Fed will not taper QE3 any faster than it is now. Closes: TYM4 +13.50, FVM4 +9.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is down -0.002 (-0.01%) at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0009 (+0.06%) at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01 (+0.01%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -0.334 (-0.42%), EUR/USD +0.0055 (+0.40%), USD/JPY -0.403 (-0.39%). Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) U.S. economic growth concerns after Q1 GDP expanded well below expectations, and (2) strength in EUR/USD which rebounded from a 3-week low and closed higher on speculation the ECB will refrain from expanding its stimulus measures when it meets next week.
Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 -0.67%) this morning is down -49 cents (-0.49%) at a 4-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.79%) is down -0.0224 (-0.76%) at a 3-week low. Jun crude and gasoline prices on Wed closed lower with Jun crude at a 4-week low and Jun gasoline at a 3-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the +0.1% (q/q annualized) gain in U.S. Q1 GDP, weaker than expectations of +1.2%, (2) the +1.698 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to 399.357 million bbl, the most since weekly EIA data began in 1982 and monthly government data began in 1920, and (3) the unexpected +1.56 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline supplies, more than expectations for a -425,000 bbl draw. Closes: CLM4 -1.54 (-1.52%). RBM4 -0.0436 (-1.45%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/01/2014
|US||0730 ET||Apr Challenger job cuts, Mar -30.2% y/y.|
|0830 ET||Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks to the Independent Community Bankers of Americas annual Washington Policy Summit.|
|0830 ET||Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -9,000 to 320,000, previous +24,000 to 329,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +20,000 to 2.700 million, previous 61,000 to 2.680 million.|
|0830 ET||Mar personal spending expected +0.6%, Feb +0.3%. Mar personal income expected +0.4%, Feb +0.3%.|
|0830 ET||Mar PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y. Mar core PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.|
|0830 ET||USDA weekly Export Sales.|
|0945 ET||Revised Markit Apr manufacturing PMI, previous 55.4.|
|1000 ET||Apr ISM manufacturing index expected +0.6 to 54.3, Mar +0.5 to 53.7. Apr ISM new orders, Mar +0.6 to 55.1. Apr ISM employment, Mar -1.2 to 51.1. Apr ISM prices paid expected +0.5 to 59.5, Mar -1.0 to 59.0.|
|1000 ET||Mar construction spending expected +0.5% m/m, Feb +0.1% m/m.|
|n/a||Apr total vehicle sales expected 16.20 million, Mar 16.33 million. Apr domestic vehicle sales expected 12.80 million, Mar 12.78 million.|
|JPN||0100 ET||Japan Apr vehicle sales, Mar +14.5% y/y.|
|1930 ET||Japan May jobless rate expected unch at 3.6%, Feb 3.6%. Mar job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.06, Feb 1.05.|
|1930 ET||Japan Mar overall household spending expected +2.0% y/y, Feb -2.5% y/y.|
|UK||0200 ET||UK Apr nationwide house prices expected +0.6% m/m and +9.8% y/y, Mar +0.4% m/m and +9.5% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK Mar net consumer credit expected +0.6 billion pounds, Feb +0.6 billion pounds.|
|0430 ET||UK Mar mortgage approvals expected 72,000, Feb 70,300.|
|0430 ET||UK Mar M4 money supply, Feb +0.7% m/m and +0.7% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK Apr Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 55.4, Mar 55.3.|
|CHI||n/a||Chinese markets closed for Labour Day holiday.|
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/01/2014
|Company Name||Ticker||Time||Event Description||Period||Estimate|
|Mylan Inc/PA||MYL US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.625|
|Xcel Energy Inc||XEL US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.503|
|Airgas Inc||ARG US||Bef-mkt||Q4 2014 Earnings Release||Q4 2014||1.198|
|Marathon Petroleum Corp||MPC US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||1.056|
|PG&E Corp||PCG US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.634|
|BorgWarner Inc||BWA US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.799|
|PPL Corp||PPL US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.713|
|ConocoPhillips||COP US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||1.553|
|Avon Products Inc||AVP US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.209|
|Ball Corp||BLL US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.672|
|L-3 Communications Holdings Inc||LLL US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||1.949|
|Becton Dickinson and Co||BDX US||Bef-mkt||Q2 2014 Earnings Release||Q2 2014||1.503|
|Quanta Services Inc||PWR US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.418|
|Viacom Inc||VIAB US||Bef-mkt||Q2 2014 Earnings Release||Q2 2014||1.047|
|Clorox Co/The||CLX US||Bef-mkt||Q3 2014 Earnings Release||Q3 2014||1.076|
|Iron Mountain Inc||IRM US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.258|
|Textron Inc||TXT US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.343|
|MasterCard Inc||MA US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.719|
|Cardinal Health Inc||CAH US||Bef-mkt||Q3 2014 Earnings Release||Q3 2014||1.006|
|CenterPoint Energy Inc||CNP US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.321|
|Fidelity National Information Services Inc||FIS US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.683|
|CME Group Inc/IL||CME US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.827|
|Host Hotels & Resorts Inc||HST US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.304|
|Cigna Corp||CI US||6:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||1.541|
|Motorola Solutions Inc||MSI US||7:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.499|
|American Tower Corp||AMT US||7:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||1.04|
|Legg Mason Inc||LM US||7:00||Q4 2014 Earnings Release||Q4 2014||0.578|
|Public Service Enterprise Group Inc||PEG US||7:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.962|
|Invesco Ltd||IVZ US||7:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.554|
|Motorola Solutions Inc||MSI US||8:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Allegion PLC||ALLE US||8:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Becton Dickinson and Co||BDX US||8:00||Q2 2014 Earnings Call||Q2 2014|
|Textron Inc||TXT US||8:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Exxon Mobil Corp||XOM US||8:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||1.877|
|Harman International Industries Inc||HAR US||8:00||Q3 2014 Earnings Release||Q3 2014||1.009|
|Kellogg Co||K US||8:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.972|
|Legg Mason Inc||LM US||8:00||Q4 2014 Earnings Call||Q4 2014|
|MetLife Inc||MET US||8:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|PPL Corp||PPL US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Viacom Inc||VIAB US||8:30||Q2 2014 Earnings Call||Q2 2014|
|Cigna Corp||CI US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Iron Mountain Inc||IRM US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Tesoro Corp||TSO US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|MasterCard Inc||MA US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|American Tower Corp||AMT US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Cardinal Health Inc||CAH US||8:30||Q3 2014 Earnings Call||Q3 2014|
|Fidelity National Information Services Inc||FIS US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|CME Group Inc/IL||CME US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Avon Products Inc||AVP US||9:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Invesco Ltd||IVZ US||9:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|BorgWarner Inc||BWA US||9:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Quanta Services Inc||PWR US||9:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Ford Motor Co||F US||9:30||April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release||2014|
|Williams Cos Inc/The||WMB US||9:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Kellogg Co||K US||9:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Xcel Energy Inc||XEL US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Airgas Inc||ARG US||10:00||Q4 2014 Earnings Call||Q4 2014|
|Marathon Petroleum Corp||MPC US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Public Service Enterprise Group Inc||PEG US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Capital One Financial Corp||COF US||10:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Total System Services Inc||TSS US||10:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Duke Energy Corp||DUK US||10:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Ford Motor Co||F US||10:00||April 2014 Sales and Revenue Call||2014|
|Gannett Co Inc||GCI US||10:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Lincoln National Corp||LNC US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Host Hotels & Resorts Inc||HST US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Northeast Utilities||NU US||10:30||Annual General Meeting|
|Tractor Supply Co||TSCO US||11:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Mylan Inc/PA||MYL US||11:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Equity Residential||EQR US||11:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|PG&E Corp||PCG US||11:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Valero Energy Corp||VLO US||11:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Ball Corp||BLL US||11:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|L-3 Communications Holdings Inc||LLL US||11:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Exxon Mobil Corp||XOM US||11:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Harman International Industries Inc||HAR US||11:00||Q3 2014 Earnings Call||Q3 2014|
|Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The||GS US||11:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call - Fixed Income||Q1 2014|
|CenterPoint Energy Inc||CNP US||11:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|ConocoPhillips||COP US||12:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|HCP Inc||HCP US||12:30||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Eastman Chemical Co||EMN US||12:30||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Murphy Oil Corp||MUR US||13:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Allegheny Technologies Inc||ATI US||13:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Clorox Co/The||CLX US||13:30||Q3 2014 Earnings Call||Q3 2014|
|Western Union Co/The||WU US||16:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.349|
|Kraft Foods Group Inc||KRFT US||16:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.759|
|Prologis Inc||PLD US||16:30||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Akamai Technologies Inc||AKAM US||16:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Western Union Co/The||WU US||16:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Wynn Resorts Ltd||WYNN US||16:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Expedia Inc||EXPE US||16:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc||DVA US||17:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc||VRTX US||17:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Kraft Foods Group Inc||KRFT US||17:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Fluor Corp||FLR US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.967|
|DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc||DVA US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.857|
|Mohawk Industries Inc||MHK US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||1.179|
|Southwestern Energy Co||SWN US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.629|
|Public Storage||PSA US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||1.852|
|Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc||VRTX US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||-0.769|
|XL Group PLC||XL US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.739|
|Akamai Technologies Inc||AKAM US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.534|
|Integrys Energy Group Inc||TEG US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||1.753|
|Wynn Resorts Ltd||WYNN US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||2.067|
|Apartment Investment & Management Co||AIV US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.485|
|Expedia Inc||EXPE US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.154|
|Fluor Corp||FLR US||17:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Mead Johnson Nutrition Co||MJN US||Annual General Meeting|
|Fluor Corp||FLR US||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Archer-Daniels-Midland Co||ADM US||Annual General Meeting|
|Verizon Communications Inc||VZ US||Annual General Meeting|
|Bemis Co Inc||BMS US||Annual General Meeting|
|Health Care REIT Inc||HCN US||Annual General Meeting|
|Cabot Oil & Gas Corp||COG US||Annual General Meeting|
|Yum! Brands Inc||YUM US||Annual General Meeting|
|DTE Energy Co||DTE US||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Public Storage||PSA US||Annual General Meeting|
|Dover Corp||DOV US||Annual General Meeting|
|EOG Resources Inc||EOG US||Annual General Meeting|
|Expeditors International of Washington Inc||EXPD US||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.415|
|St Jude Medical Inc||STJ US||Annual General Meeting|
|Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc||HOT US||Annual General Meeting|
|Kansas City Southern||KSU US||Annual General Meeting|
|Kimberly-Clark Corp||KMB US||Annual General Meeting|