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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 5/1 0 comments
    May 1, 2014 10:23 AM | about stocks: VIAB, MOC, COP, CNW, CBG, DOX, WTW, FBHS, WDC, EQIX, HOLX, MET, BYD, WLL, MRK, MYL, XEL, ARG, MPC, PCG, BWA, PPL, AVP, BLL, LLL, BDX, PWR, CLX, IRM, TXT, MA, CAH, CNP, FIS, CME, HST, CI, MSI, AMT, LM, PEG, IVZ, ALLE, XOM, HAR, K, TSO

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Thursday, May 1st, 2014

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 unch) this morning are up 0.08% and UK stocks are up +0.25% on signs of economic strength after the Apr UK manufacturing PMI grew more than expected and expanded at the fastest pace in 5 months. Gains in stocks were muted and most commodities fell after Chinese manufacturing activity expanded less than forecast last month. The rest of Europe is closed today for the Labour Day holiday. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.27%, Australia -0.73%, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan Singapore, South Korea and India are all closed for holidays. The situation in Ukraine remains tense after Ukraine's Interior Ministry said that as many as 1,000 gunmen have seized buildings in more than ten cities in eastern Ukraine. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -0.67%) is down -0.49% at a 4-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.79%) is down -0.76% at a 3-week low. Jun gold GCM14 -0.91%) is down -0.83%. July copper (HGN14 +0.13%) is down -0.10%. Agriculture and livestock prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is down -0.01% at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06% at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01%. The British pound climbed to a 4-3/4 year high against the dollar after UK Apr manufacturing PMI beat expectations and UK Apr house prices rose at the fastest pace in 6-3/4 years. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.05%) are down -2.5 ticks.

    The China Apr manufacturing PMI rose +0.1 to 50.4, less than expectations of +0.2 to 50.5.

    Japan Apr vehicle sales dropped -11.4% y/y, the biggest decline in 9-months, as consumers stayed away after Japan raised the consumption tax by 3 percentage points to 8.0% on Apr 1.

    UK Apr nationwide house prices rose +1.2% m/m and +10.9% y/y, more than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +9.8% y/y, with the +10.9% y/y increase the largest annual gain in 6-3/4 years.

    UK Apr Markit PMI manufacturing rose +1.5 to 57.3, better than expectations of +0.1 to 55.4 and the fastest pace of expansion in 5 months.

    UK Mar net consumer credit climbed 1.1 billion pounds, more than expectations of 0.6 billion pounds and the most in 1-1/2 years.

    UK Mar mortgage approvals were 67,100, less than expectations of 72,000.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -9,000 to 320,000, reversing part of last week's +24,000 increase to 329,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show an increase of +20,000 to 2.700 million, reversing part of last week's decline of -61,000 to 2.680 million. Today's April ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a +0.6 point increase to 54.3, adding to the +0.5 point increase to 53.7 seen in March. Today's March personal spending report is expected to show a solid increase of +0.6%, adding to the increase of +0.3% seen in February. Meanwhile, March personal income is expected to show an increase of +0.4%, adding to the +0.3% increase seen in February. Today's March PCE deflator, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise slightly to +1.1% y/y from +0.9% in February. Meanwhile, today's March core PCE deflator is expected to edge higher to +1.2% y/y from +1.1% in February. Today's April total vehicle sales report is expected to ease to 16.20 million from 16.33 million in March.

    There are 47 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include MasterCard (consensus $0.72), Marathon Petroleum (1.06), PG&E (0.63), ConnocoPhillips (1.55), Textron (0.34), CME Group (0.83), Motorola Solutions (0.50), Exxon Mobil (1.88), Kellogg (0.97), Kraft Foods (0.76). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Linley Group Mobile Conference on Wed-Thu.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Viacom (VIAB +1.52%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.08, better than consensus of $1.05.

    Marathon Petroleum (MPC -0.46%) reported Q1 EPS of 81 cents, weaker than consensus of $1.06.

    ConocoPhillips (COP -0.50%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.81, well above consensus of $1.55.

    Con-way (CNW +0.93%) reported Q1 EPS of 20 cents, higher than consensus of 16 cents.

    CBRE Group (CBG +0.95%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 25 cents, well above consensus of 17 cents.

    Amdocs (DOX +1.37%) reported Q2 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 78 cents.

    Weight Watchers (WTW -3.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 31 cents, over three times consensus of 9 cents.

    Fortune Brands (FBHS -0.65%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 25 cents, well below consensus of 32 cents.

    Western Digital (WDC +0.72%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.94, better than consensus of $1.88.

    Equinix (EQIX +1.31%) reported Q1 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 72 cents.

    Hologic (HOLX +0.10%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 37 cents, higher than consensus of 33 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.37-$1.40 from $1.34 to $1.38, above Consensus of $1.37.

    MetLife (MET +0.98%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.37, below consensus of $1.40.

    Boyd Gaming (BYD +0.34%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -4 cents, weaker than consensus of a 1 cent gain.

    Whiting Petroleum (WLL -0.34%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.05, better than consensus of 97 cents.

    Reuters reports that Merck (MRK -0.27%) is working with investment banks as it is looking to sell a "big portfolio of mature drugs."

    MARKET COMMENTS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 unch) this morning are up +1.50 points (+0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +220,000 increase in the Apr ADP employment report, more than expectations of +210,000 and the most in 5 months, and (2) the +7.1 point gain in the April Chicago Apr manufacturing PMI to 63.0, more than expectations of +1.1 to 57.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months. Limiting gains was the +0.1% (q/q annualized) increase in U.S. Q1 GDP, weaker than expectations of +1.2% and the slowest pace of growth since Q4-2012. Closes: S&P 500 +0.30%, Dow Jones +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.22%.

    Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.05%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday posted a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +0.3% increase in the Q1 employment cost index, less than expectations of +0.5% and the slowest pace of increase in 2-1/2 years, and (2) the slower-than-expected increase in U.S. Q1 GDP of +0.1% (q/q annualized), which fueled ideas the Fed will not taper QE3 any faster than it is now. Closes: TYM4 +13.50, FVM4 +9.75.

    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is down -0.002 (-0.01%) at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0009 (+0.06%) at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01 (+0.01%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -0.334 (-0.42%), EUR/USD +0.0055 (+0.40%), USD/JPY -0.403 (-0.39%). Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) U.S. economic growth concerns after Q1 GDP expanded well below expectations, and (2) strength in EUR/USD which rebounded from a 3-week low and closed higher on speculation the ECB will refrain from expanding its stimulus measures when it meets next week.

    Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 -0.67%) this morning is down -49 cents (-0.49%) at a 4-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.79%) is down -0.0224 (-0.76%) at a 3-week low. Jun crude and gasoline prices on Wed closed lower with Jun crude at a 4-week low and Jun gasoline at a 3-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the +0.1% (q/q annualized) gain in U.S. Q1 GDP, weaker than expectations of +1.2%, (2) the +1.698 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to 399.357 million bbl, the most since weekly EIA data began in 1982 and monthly government data began in 1920, and (3) the unexpected +1.56 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline supplies, more than expectations for a -425,000 bbl draw. Closes: CLM4 -1.54 (-1.52%). RBM4 -0.0436 (-1.45%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/01/2014

    US 0730 ET Apr Challenger job cuts, Mar -30.2% y/y.
      0830 ET Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks to the Independent Community Bankers of Americas annual Washington Policy Summit.
      0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -9,000 to 320,000, previous +24,000 to 329,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +20,000 to 2.700 million, previous 61,000 to 2.680 million.
      0830 ET Mar personal spending expected +0.6%, Feb +0.3%. Mar personal income expected +0.4%, Feb +0.3%.
      0830 ET Mar PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y. Mar core PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
      0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
      0945 ET Revised Markit Apr manufacturing PMI, previous 55.4.
      1000 ET Apr ISM manufacturing index expected +0.6 to 54.3, Mar +0.5 to 53.7. Apr ISM new orders, Mar +0.6 to 55.1. Apr ISM employment, Mar -1.2 to 51.1. Apr ISM prices paid expected +0.5 to 59.5, Mar -1.0 to 59.0.
      1000 ET Mar construction spending expected +0.5% m/m, Feb +0.1% m/m.
      n/a Apr total vehicle sales expected 16.20 million, Mar 16.33 million. Apr domestic vehicle sales expected 12.80 million, Mar 12.78 million.
    JPN 0100 ET Japan Apr vehicle sales, Mar +14.5% y/y.
      1930 ET Japan May jobless rate expected unch at 3.6%, Feb 3.6%. Mar job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.06, Feb 1.05.
      1930 ET Japan Mar overall household spending expected +2.0% y/y, Feb -2.5% y/y.
    UK 0200 ET UK Apr nationwide house prices expected +0.6% m/m and +9.8% y/y, Mar +0.4% m/m and +9.5% y/y.
      0430 ET UK Mar net consumer credit expected +0.6 billion pounds, Feb +0.6 billion pounds.
      0430 ET UK Mar mortgage approvals expected 72,000, Feb 70,300.
      0430 ET UK Mar M4 money supply, Feb +0.7% m/m and +0.7% y/y.
      0430 ET UK Apr Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 55.4, Mar 55.3.
    CHI n/a Chinese markets closed for Labour Day holiday.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/01/2014

    Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
    Mylan Inc/PA MYL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.625
    Xcel Energy Inc XEL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.503
    Airgas Inc ARG US Bef-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 1.198
    Marathon Petroleum Corp MPC US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.056
    PG&E Corp PCG US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.634
    BorgWarner Inc BWA US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.799
    PPL Corp PPL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.713
    ConocoPhillips COP US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.553
    Avon Products Inc AVP US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.209
    Ball Corp BLL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.672
    L-3 Communications Holdings Inc LLL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.949
    Becton Dickinson and Co BDX US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.503
    Quanta Services Inc PWR US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.418
    Viacom Inc VIAB US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.047
    Clorox Co/The CLX US Bef-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.076
    Iron Mountain Inc IRM US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.258
    Textron Inc TXT US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.343
    MasterCard Inc MA US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.719
    Cardinal Health Inc CAH US Bef-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.006
    CenterPoint Energy Inc CNP US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.321
    Fidelity National Information Services Inc FIS US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.683
    CME Group Inc/IL CME US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.827
    Host Hotels & Resorts Inc HST US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.304
    Cigna Corp CI US 6:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.541
    Motorola Solutions Inc MSI US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.499
    American Tower Corp AMT US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.04
    Legg Mason Inc LM US 7:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.578
    Public Service Enterprise Group Inc PEG US 7:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.962
    Invesco Ltd IVZ US 7:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.554
    Motorola Solutions Inc MSI US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Allegion PLC ALLE US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Becton Dickinson and Co BDX US 8:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
    Textron Inc TXT US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Exxon Mobil Corp XOM US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.877
    Harman International Industries Inc HAR US 8:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.009
    Kellogg Co K US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.972
    Legg Mason Inc LM US 8:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014  
    MetLife Inc MET US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    PPL Corp PPL US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Viacom Inc VIAB US 8:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
    Cigna Corp CI US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Iron Mountain Inc IRM US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Tesoro Corp TSO US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    MasterCard Inc MA US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    American Tower Corp AMT US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Cardinal Health Inc CAH US 8:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
    Fidelity National Information Services Inc FIS US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    CME Group Inc/IL CME US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Avon Products Inc AVP US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Invesco Ltd IVZ US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    BorgWarner Inc BWA US 9:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Quanta Services Inc PWR US 9:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Ford Motor Co F US 9:30 April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release 2014  
    Williams Cos Inc/The WMB US 9:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Kellogg Co K US 9:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Xcel Energy Inc XEL US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Airgas Inc ARG US 10:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014  
    Marathon Petroleum Corp MPC US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Public Service Enterprise Group Inc PEG US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Capital One Financial Corp COF US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Total System Services Inc TSS US 10:00 Annual General Meeting    
    Duke Energy Corp DUK US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Ford Motor Co F US 10:00 April 2014 Sales and Revenue Call 2014  
    Gannett Co Inc GCI US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Lincoln National Corp LNC US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Host Hotels & Resorts Inc HST US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Northeast Utilities NU US 10:30 Annual General Meeting    
    Tractor Supply Co TSCO US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Mylan Inc/PA MYL US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Equity Residential EQR US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    PG&E Corp PCG US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Valero Energy Corp VLO US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Ball Corp BLL US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    L-3 Communications Holdings Inc LLL US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Exxon Mobil Corp XOM US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Harman International Industries Inc HAR US 11:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
    Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The GS US 11:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call - Fixed Income Q1 2014  
    CenterPoint Energy Inc CNP US 11:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    ConocoPhillips COP US 12:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    HCP Inc HCP US 12:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Eastman Chemical Co EMN US 12:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Murphy Oil Corp MUR US 13:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Allegheny Technologies Inc ATI US 13:00 Annual General Meeting    
    Clorox Co/The CLX US 13:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
    Western Union Co/The WU US 16:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.349
    Kraft Foods Group Inc KRFT US 16:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.759
    Prologis Inc PLD US 16:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Akamai Technologies Inc AKAM US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Western Union Co/The WU US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Wynn Resorts Ltd WYNN US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Expedia Inc EXPE US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc DVA US 17:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX US 17:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Kraft Foods Group Inc KRFT US 17:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Fluor Corp FLR US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.967
    DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc DVA US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.857
    Mohawk Industries Inc MHK US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.179
    Southwestern Energy Co SWN US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.629
    Public Storage PSA US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.852
    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 -0.769
    XL Group PLC XL US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.739
    Akamai Technologies Inc AKAM US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.534
    Integrys Energy Group Inc TEG US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.753
    Wynn Resorts Ltd WYNN US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 2.067
    Apartment Investment & Management Co AIV US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.485
    Expedia Inc EXPE US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.154
    Fluor Corp FLR US 17:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Mead Johnson Nutrition Co MJN US   Annual General Meeting    
    Fluor Corp FLR US   Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM US   Annual General Meeting    
    Verizon Communications Inc VZ US   Annual General Meeting    
    Bemis Co Inc BMS US   Annual General Meeting    
    Health Care REIT Inc HCN US   Annual General Meeting    
    Cabot Oil & Gas Corp COG US   Annual General Meeting    
    Yum! Brands Inc YUM US   Annual General Meeting    
    DTE Energy Co DTE US   Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Public Storage PSA US   Annual General Meeting    
    Dover Corp DOV US   Annual General Meeting    
    EOG Resources Inc EOG US   Annual General Meeting    
    Expeditors International of Washington Inc EXPD US   Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.415
    St Jude Medical Inc STJ US   Annual General Meeting    
    Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc HOT US   Annual General Meeting    
    Kansas City Southern KSU US   Annual General Meeting    
    Kimberly-Clark Corp KMB US   Annual General Meeting
    Stocks: VIAB, MOC, COP, CNW, CBG, DOX, WTW, FBHS, WDC, EQIX, HOLX, MET, BYD, WLL, MRK, MYL, XEL, ARG, MPC, PCG, BWA, PPL, AVP, BLL, LLL, BDX, PWR, CLX, IRM, TXT, MA, CAH, CNP, FIS, CME, HST, CI, MSI, AMT, LM, PEG, IVZ, ALLE, XOM, HAR, K, TSO
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