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BARCHART MORNING CALL 5/1

|Includes:AIQUF, ALLE, AMT, AVP, BDX, BLL, BWA, BYD, CAH, CBG, CI, CLX, CME, CNP, CNW, COP, DOX, EQIX, FBHS, FIS, HAR, HOLX, HST, IRM, IVZ, K, LLL, LM, MA, MET, MOC, MPC, MRK, MSI, MYL, PCG, PEG, PPL, PWR, TSO, TXT, Viacom Inc. (VIAB), WDC, WLL, WTW, XEL, XOM

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, May 1st, 2014

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 unch) this morning are up 0.08% and UK stocks are up +0.25% on signs of economic strength after the Apr UK manufacturing PMI grew more than expected and expanded at the fastest pace in 5 months. Gains in stocks were muted and most commodities fell after Chinese manufacturing activity expanded less than forecast last month. The rest of Europe is closed today for the Labour Day holiday. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.27%, Australia -0.73%, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan Singapore, South Korea and India are all closed for holidays. The situation in Ukraine remains tense after Ukraine's Interior Ministry said that as many as 1,000 gunmen have seized buildings in more than ten cities in eastern Ukraine. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -0.67%) is down -0.49% at a 4-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.79%) is down -0.76% at a 3-week low. Jun gold GCM14 -0.91%) is down -0.83%. July copper (HGN14 +0.13%) is down -0.10%. Agriculture and livestock prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is down -0.01% at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06% at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01%. The British pound climbed to a 4-3/4 year high against the dollar after UK Apr manufacturing PMI beat expectations and UK Apr house prices rose at the fastest pace in 6-3/4 years. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.05%) are down -2.5 ticks.

The China Apr manufacturing PMI rose +0.1 to 50.4, less than expectations of +0.2 to 50.5.

Japan Apr vehicle sales dropped -11.4% y/y, the biggest decline in 9-months, as consumers stayed away after Japan raised the consumption tax by 3 percentage points to 8.0% on Apr 1.

UK Apr nationwide house prices rose +1.2% m/m and +10.9% y/y, more than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +9.8% y/y, with the +10.9% y/y increase the largest annual gain in 6-3/4 years.

UK Apr Markit PMI manufacturing rose +1.5 to 57.3, better than expectations of +0.1 to 55.4 and the fastest pace of expansion in 5 months.

UK Mar net consumer credit climbed 1.1 billion pounds, more than expectations of 0.6 billion pounds and the most in 1-1/2 years.

UK Mar mortgage approvals were 67,100, less than expectations of 72,000.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -9,000 to 320,000, reversing part of last week's +24,000 increase to 329,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show an increase of +20,000 to 2.700 million, reversing part of last week's decline of -61,000 to 2.680 million. Today's April ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a +0.6 point increase to 54.3, adding to the +0.5 point increase to 53.7 seen in March. Today's March personal spending report is expected to show a solid increase of +0.6%, adding to the increase of +0.3% seen in February. Meanwhile, March personal income is expected to show an increase of +0.4%, adding to the +0.3% increase seen in February. Today's March PCE deflator, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise slightly to +1.1% y/y from +0.9% in February. Meanwhile, today's March core PCE deflator is expected to edge higher to +1.2% y/y from +1.1% in February. Today's April total vehicle sales report is expected to ease to 16.20 million from 16.33 million in March.

There are 47 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include MasterCard (consensus $0.72), Marathon Petroleum (1.06), PG&E (0.63), ConnocoPhillips (1.55), Textron (0.34), CME Group (0.83), Motorola Solutions (0.50), Exxon Mobil (1.88), Kellogg (0.97), Kraft Foods (0.76). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Linley Group Mobile Conference on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Viacom (VIAB +1.52%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.08, better than consensus of $1.05.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC -0.46%) reported Q1 EPS of 81 cents, weaker than consensus of $1.06.

ConocoPhillips (COP -0.50%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.81, well above consensus of $1.55.

Con-way (CNW +0.93%) reported Q1 EPS of 20 cents, higher than consensus of 16 cents.

CBRE Group (CBG +0.95%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 25 cents, well above consensus of 17 cents.

Amdocs (DOX +1.37%) reported Q2 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 78 cents.

Weight Watchers (WTW -3.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 31 cents, over three times consensus of 9 cents.

Fortune Brands (FBHS -0.65%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 25 cents, well below consensus of 32 cents.

Western Digital (WDC +0.72%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.94, better than consensus of $1.88.

Equinix (EQIX +1.31%) reported Q1 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 72 cents.

Hologic (HOLX +0.10%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 37 cents, higher than consensus of 33 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.37-$1.40 from $1.34 to $1.38, above Consensus of $1.37.

MetLife (MET +0.98%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.37, below consensus of $1.40.

Boyd Gaming (BYD +0.34%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -4 cents, weaker than consensus of a 1 cent gain.

Whiting Petroleum (WLL -0.34%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.05, better than consensus of 97 cents.

Reuters reports that Merck (MRK -0.27%) is working with investment banks as it is looking to sell a "big portfolio of mature drugs."

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 unch) this morning are up +1.50 points (+0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +220,000 increase in the Apr ADP employment report, more than expectations of +210,000 and the most in 5 months, and (2) the +7.1 point gain in the April Chicago Apr manufacturing PMI to 63.0, more than expectations of +1.1 to 57.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months. Limiting gains was the +0.1% (q/q annualized) increase in U.S. Q1 GDP, weaker than expectations of +1.2% and the slowest pace of growth since Q4-2012. Closes: S&P 500 +0.30%, Dow Jones +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.22%.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.05%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday posted a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +0.3% increase in the Q1 employment cost index, less than expectations of +0.5% and the slowest pace of increase in 2-1/2 years, and (2) the slower-than-expected increase in U.S. Q1 GDP of +0.1% (q/q annualized), which fueled ideas the Fed will not taper QE3 any faster than it is now. Closes: TYM4 +13.50, FVM4 +9.75.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is down -0.002 (-0.01%) at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0009 (+0.06%) at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01 (+0.01%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -0.334 (-0.42%), EUR/USD +0.0055 (+0.40%), USD/JPY -0.403 (-0.39%). Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) U.S. economic growth concerns after Q1 GDP expanded well below expectations, and (2) strength in EUR/USD which rebounded from a 3-week low and closed higher on speculation the ECB will refrain from expanding its stimulus measures when it meets next week.

Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 -0.67%) this morning is down -49 cents (-0.49%) at a 4-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.79%) is down -0.0224 (-0.76%) at a 3-week low. Jun crude and gasoline prices on Wed closed lower with Jun crude at a 4-week low and Jun gasoline at a 3-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the +0.1% (q/q annualized) gain in U.S. Q1 GDP, weaker than expectations of +1.2%, (2) the +1.698 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to 399.357 million bbl, the most since weekly EIA data began in 1982 and monthly government data began in 1920, and (3) the unexpected +1.56 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline supplies, more than expectations for a -425,000 bbl draw. Closes: CLM4 -1.54 (-1.52%). RBM4 -0.0436 (-1.45%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/01/2014

US 0730 ET Apr Challenger job cuts, Mar -30.2% y/y.
  0830 ET Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks to the Independent Community Bankers of Americas annual Washington Policy Summit.
  0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -9,000 to 320,000, previous +24,000 to 329,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +20,000 to 2.700 million, previous 61,000 to 2.680 million.
  0830 ET Mar personal spending expected +0.6%, Feb +0.3%. Mar personal income expected +0.4%, Feb +0.3%.
  0830 ET Mar PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y. Mar core PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
  0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
  0945 ET Revised Markit Apr manufacturing PMI, previous 55.4.
  1000 ET Apr ISM manufacturing index expected +0.6 to 54.3, Mar +0.5 to 53.7. Apr ISM new orders, Mar +0.6 to 55.1. Apr ISM employment, Mar -1.2 to 51.1. Apr ISM prices paid expected +0.5 to 59.5, Mar -1.0 to 59.0.
  1000 ET Mar construction spending expected +0.5% m/m, Feb +0.1% m/m.
  n/a Apr total vehicle sales expected 16.20 million, Mar 16.33 million. Apr domestic vehicle sales expected 12.80 million, Mar 12.78 million.
JPN 0100 ET Japan Apr vehicle sales, Mar +14.5% y/y.
  1930 ET Japan May jobless rate expected unch at 3.6%, Feb 3.6%. Mar job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.06, Feb 1.05.
  1930 ET Japan Mar overall household spending expected +2.0% y/y, Feb -2.5% y/y.
UK 0200 ET UK Apr nationwide house prices expected +0.6% m/m and +9.8% y/y, Mar +0.4% m/m and +9.5% y/y.
  0430 ET UK Mar net consumer credit expected +0.6 billion pounds, Feb +0.6 billion pounds.
  0430 ET UK Mar mortgage approvals expected 72,000, Feb 70,300.
  0430 ET UK Mar M4 money supply, Feb +0.7% m/m and +0.7% y/y.
  0430 ET UK Apr Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 55.4, Mar 55.3.
CHI n/a Chinese markets closed for Labour Day holiday.
Click to enlarge

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/01/2014

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Mylan Inc/PA MYL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.625
Xcel Energy Inc XEL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.503
Airgas Inc ARG US Bef-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 1.198
Marathon Petroleum Corp MPC US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.056
PG&E Corp PCG US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.634
BorgWarner Inc BWA US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.799
PPL Corp PPL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.713
ConocoPhillips COP US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.553
Avon Products Inc AVP US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.209
Ball Corp BLL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.672
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc LLL US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.949
Becton Dickinson and Co BDX US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.503
Quanta Services Inc PWR US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.418
Viacom Inc VIAB US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.047
Clorox Co/The CLX US Bef-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.076
Iron Mountain Inc IRM US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.258
Textron Inc TXT US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.343
MasterCard Inc MA US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.719
Cardinal Health Inc CAH US Bef-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.006
CenterPoint Energy Inc CNP US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.321
Fidelity National Information Services Inc FIS US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.683
CME Group Inc/IL CME US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.827
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc HST US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.304
Cigna Corp CI US 6:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.541
Motorola Solutions Inc MSI US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.499
American Tower Corp AMT US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.04
Legg Mason Inc LM US 7:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.578
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc PEG US 7:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.962
Invesco Ltd IVZ US 7:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.554
Motorola Solutions Inc MSI US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Allegion PLC ALLE US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Becton Dickinson and Co BDX US 8:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Textron Inc TXT US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.877
Harman International Industries Inc HAR US 8:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.009
Kellogg Co K US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.972
Legg Mason Inc LM US 8:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014  
MetLife Inc MET US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
PPL Corp PPL US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Viacom Inc VIAB US 8:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Cigna Corp CI US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Iron Mountain Inc IRM US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Tesoro Corp TSO US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
MasterCard Inc MA US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
American Tower Corp AMT US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Cardinal Health Inc CAH US 8:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
Fidelity National Information Services Inc FIS US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
CME Group Inc/IL CME US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Avon Products Inc AVP US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Invesco Ltd IVZ US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
BorgWarner Inc BWA US 9:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Quanta Services Inc PWR US 9:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Ford Motor Co F US 9:30 April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release 2014  
Williams Cos Inc/The WMB US 9:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Kellogg Co K US 9:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Xcel Energy Inc XEL US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Airgas Inc ARG US 10:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014  
Marathon Petroleum Corp MPC US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc PEG US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Capital One Financial Corp COF US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Total System Services Inc TSS US 10:00 Annual General Meeting    
Duke Energy Corp DUK US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Ford Motor Co F US 10:00 April 2014 Sales and Revenue Call 2014  
Gannett Co Inc GCI US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Lincoln National Corp LNC US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc HST US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Northeast Utilities NU US 10:30 Annual General Meeting    
Tractor Supply Co TSCO US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Mylan Inc/PA MYL US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Equity Residential EQR US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
PG&E Corp PCG US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Valero Energy Corp VLO US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Ball Corp BLL US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc LLL US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Harman International Industries Inc HAR US 11:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The GS US 11:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call - Fixed Income Q1 2014  
CenterPoint Energy Inc CNP US 11:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
ConocoPhillips COP US 12:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
HCP Inc HCP US 12:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Eastman Chemical Co EMN US 12:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Murphy Oil Corp MUR US 13:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Allegheny Technologies Inc ATI US 13:00 Annual General Meeting    
Clorox Co/The CLX US 13:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
Western Union Co/The WU US 16:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.349
Kraft Foods Group Inc KRFT US 16:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.759
Prologis Inc PLD US 16:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Akamai Technologies Inc AKAM US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Western Union Co/The WU US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Wynn Resorts Ltd WYNN US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Expedia Inc EXPE US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc DVA US 17:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX US 17:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Kraft Foods Group Inc KRFT US 17:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Fluor Corp FLR US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.967
DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc DVA US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.857
Mohawk Industries Inc MHK US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.179
Southwestern Energy Co SWN US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.629
Public Storage PSA US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.852
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 -0.769
XL Group PLC XL US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.739
Akamai Technologies Inc AKAM US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.534
Integrys Energy Group Inc TEG US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.753
Wynn Resorts Ltd WYNN US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 2.067
Apartment Investment & Management Co AIV US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.485
Expedia Inc EXPE US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.154
Fluor Corp FLR US 17:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Mead Johnson Nutrition Co MJN US   Annual General Meeting    
Fluor Corp FLR US   Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM US   Annual General Meeting    
Verizon Communications Inc VZ US   Annual General Meeting    
Bemis Co Inc BMS US   Annual General Meeting    
Health Care REIT Inc HCN US   Annual General Meeting    
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp COG US   Annual General Meeting    
Yum! Brands Inc YUM US   Annual General Meeting    
DTE Energy Co DTE US   Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Public Storage PSA US   Annual General Meeting    
Dover Corp DOV US   Annual General Meeting    
EOG Resources Inc EOG US   Annual General Meeting    
Expeditors International of Washington Inc EXPD US   Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.415
St Jude Medical Inc STJ US   Annual General Meeting    
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc HOT US   Annual General Meeting    
Kansas City Southern KSU US   Annual General Meeting    
Kimberly-Clark Corp KMB US   Annual General Meeting
Click to enlarge
Stocks: VIAB, MOC, COP, CNW, CBG, DOX, WTW, FBHS, WDC, EQIX, HOLX, MET, BYD, WLL, MRK, MYL, XEL, AIQUF, MPC, PCG, BWA, PPL, AVP, BLL, LLL, BDX, PWR, CLX, IRM, TXT, MA, CAH, CNP, FIS, CME, HST, CI, MSI, AMT, LM, PEG, IVZ, ALLE, XOM, HAR, K, TSO