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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 5/1 0 comments
    May 1, 2014 10:23 AM | about stocks: VIAB, MOC, COP, CNW, CBG, DOX, WTW, FBHS, WDC, EQIX, HOLX, MET, BYD, WLL, MRK, MYL, XEL, ARG, MPC, PCG, BWA, PPL, AVP, BLL, LLL, BDX, PWR, CLX, IRM, TXT, MA, CAH, CNP, FIS, CME, HST, CI, MSI, AMT, LM, PEG, IVZ, ALLE, XOM, HAR, K, TSO

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Thursday, May 1st, 2014

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 unch) this morning are up 0.08% and UK stocks are up +0.25% on signs of economic strength after the Apr UK manufacturing PMI grew more than expected and expanded at the fastest pace in 5 months. Gains in stocks were muted and most commodities fell after Chinese manufacturing activity expanded less than forecast last month. The rest of Europe is closed today for the Labour Day holiday. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.27%, Australia -0.73%, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan Singapore, South Korea and India are all closed for holidays. The situation in Ukraine remains tense after Ukraine's Interior Ministry said that as many as 1,000 gunmen have seized buildings in more than ten cities in eastern Ukraine. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -0.67%) is down -0.49% at a 4-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.79%) is down -0.76% at a 3-week low. Jun gold GCM14 -0.91%) is down -0.83%. July copper (HGN14 +0.13%) is down -0.10%. Agriculture and livestock prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is down -0.01% at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06% at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01%. The British pound climbed to a 4-3/4 year high against the dollar after UK Apr manufacturing PMI beat expectations and UK Apr house prices rose at the fastest pace in 6-3/4 years. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.05%) are down -2.5 ticks.

    The China Apr manufacturing PMI rose +0.1 to 50.4, less than expectations of +0.2 to 50.5.

    Japan Apr vehicle sales dropped -11.4% y/y, the biggest decline in 9-months, as consumers stayed away after Japan raised the consumption tax by 3 percentage points to 8.0% on Apr 1.

    UK Apr nationwide house prices rose +1.2% m/m and +10.9% y/y, more than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +9.8% y/y, with the +10.9% y/y increase the largest annual gain in 6-3/4 years.

    UK Apr Markit PMI manufacturing rose +1.5 to 57.3, better than expectations of +0.1 to 55.4 and the fastest pace of expansion in 5 months.

    UK Mar net consumer credit climbed 1.1 billion pounds, more than expectations of 0.6 billion pounds and the most in 1-1/2 years.

    UK Mar mortgage approvals were 67,100, less than expectations of 72,000.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -9,000 to 320,000, reversing part of last week's +24,000 increase to 329,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show an increase of +20,000 to 2.700 million, reversing part of last week's decline of -61,000 to 2.680 million. Today's April ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a +0.6 point increase to 54.3, adding to the +0.5 point increase to 53.7 seen in March. Today's March personal spending report is expected to show a solid increase of +0.6%, adding to the increase of +0.3% seen in February. Meanwhile, March personal income is expected to show an increase of +0.4%, adding to the +0.3% increase seen in February. Today's March PCE deflator, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise slightly to +1.1% y/y from +0.9% in February. Meanwhile, today's March core PCE deflator is expected to edge higher to +1.2% y/y from +1.1% in February. Today's April total vehicle sales report is expected to ease to 16.20 million from 16.33 million in March.

    There are 47 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include MasterCard (consensus $0.72), Marathon Petroleum (1.06), PG&E (0.63), ConnocoPhillips (1.55), Textron (0.34), CME Group (0.83), Motorola Solutions (0.50), Exxon Mobil (1.88), Kellogg (0.97), Kraft Foods (0.76). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Linley Group Mobile Conference on Wed-Thu.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Viacom (VIAB +1.52%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.08, better than consensus of $1.05.

    Marathon Petroleum (MPC -0.46%) reported Q1 EPS of 81 cents, weaker than consensus of $1.06.

    ConocoPhillips (COP -0.50%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.81, well above consensus of $1.55.

    Con-way (CNW +0.93%) reported Q1 EPS of 20 cents, higher than consensus of 16 cents.

    CBRE Group (CBG +0.95%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 25 cents, well above consensus of 17 cents.

    Amdocs (DOX +1.37%) reported Q2 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 78 cents.

    Weight Watchers (WTW -3.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 31 cents, over three times consensus of 9 cents.

    Fortune Brands (FBHS -0.65%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 25 cents, well below consensus of 32 cents.

    Western Digital (WDC +0.72%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.94, better than consensus of $1.88.

    Equinix (EQIX +1.31%) reported Q1 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 72 cents.

    Hologic (HOLX +0.10%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 37 cents, higher than consensus of 33 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.37-$1.40 from $1.34 to $1.38, above Consensus of $1.37.

    MetLife (MET +0.98%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.37, below consensus of $1.40.

    Boyd Gaming (BYD +0.34%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -4 cents, weaker than consensus of a 1 cent gain.

    Whiting Petroleum (WLL -0.34%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.05, better than consensus of 97 cents.

    Reuters reports that Merck (MRK -0.27%) is working with investment banks as it is looking to sell a "big portfolio of mature drugs."

    MARKET COMMENTS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 unch) this morning are up +1.50 points (+0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +220,000 increase in the Apr ADP employment report, more than expectations of +210,000 and the most in 5 months, and (2) the +7.1 point gain in the April Chicago Apr manufacturing PMI to 63.0, more than expectations of +1.1 to 57.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months. Limiting gains was the +0.1% (q/q annualized) increase in U.S. Q1 GDP, weaker than expectations of +1.2% and the slowest pace of growth since Q4-2012. Closes: S&P 500 +0.30%, Dow Jones +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.22%.

    Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.05%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday posted a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +0.3% increase in the Q1 employment cost index, less than expectations of +0.5% and the slowest pace of increase in 2-1/2 years, and (2) the slower-than-expected increase in U.S. Q1 GDP of +0.1% (q/q annualized), which fueled ideas the Fed will not taper QE3 any faster than it is now. Closes: TYM4 +13.50, FVM4 +9.75.

    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is down -0.002 (-0.01%) at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0009 (+0.06%) at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01 (+0.01%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -0.334 (-0.42%), EUR/USD +0.0055 (+0.40%), USD/JPY -0.403 (-0.39%). Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) U.S. economic growth concerns after Q1 GDP expanded well below expectations, and (2) strength in EUR/USD which rebounded from a 3-week low and closed higher on speculation the ECB will refrain from expanding its stimulus measures when it meets next week.

    Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 -0.67%) this morning is down -49 cents (-0.49%) at a 4-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.79%) is down -0.0224 (-0.76%) at a 3-week low. Jun crude and gasoline prices on Wed closed lower with Jun crude at a 4-week low and Jun gasoline at a 3-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the +0.1% (q/q annualized) gain in U.S. Q1 GDP, weaker than expectations of +1.2%, (2) the +1.698 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to 399.357 million bbl, the most since weekly EIA data began in 1982 and monthly government data began in 1920, and (3) the unexpected +1.56 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline supplies, more than expectations for a -425,000 bbl draw. Closes: CLM4 -1.54 (-1.52%). RBM4 -0.0436 (-1.45%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/01/2014

    US0730 ETApr Challenger job cuts, Mar -30.2% y/y.
     0830 ETFed Chair Janet Yellen speaks to the Independent Community Bankers of Americas annual Washington Policy Summit.
     0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -9,000 to 320,000, previous +24,000 to 329,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +20,000 to 2.700 million, previous 61,000 to 2.680 million.
     0830 ETMar personal spending expected +0.6%, Feb +0.3%. Mar personal income expected +0.4%, Feb +0.3%.
     0830 ETMar PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y. Mar core PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Feb +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
     0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
     0945 ETRevised Markit Apr manufacturing PMI, previous 55.4.
     1000 ETApr ISM manufacturing index expected +0.6 to 54.3, Mar +0.5 to 53.7. Apr ISM new orders, Mar +0.6 to 55.1. Apr ISM employment, Mar -1.2 to 51.1. Apr ISM prices paid expected +0.5 to 59.5, Mar -1.0 to 59.0.
     1000 ETMar construction spending expected +0.5% m/m, Feb +0.1% m/m.
     n/aApr total vehicle sales expected 16.20 million, Mar 16.33 million. Apr domestic vehicle sales expected 12.80 million, Mar 12.78 million.
    JPN0100 ETJapan Apr vehicle sales, Mar +14.5% y/y.
     1930 ETJapan May jobless rate expected unch at 3.6%, Feb 3.6%. Mar job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.06, Feb 1.05.
     1930 ETJapan Mar overall household spending expected +2.0% y/y, Feb -2.5% y/y.
    UK0200 ETUK Apr nationwide house prices expected +0.6% m/m and +9.8% y/y, Mar +0.4% m/m and +9.5% y/y.
     0430 ETUK Mar net consumer credit expected +0.6 billion pounds, Feb +0.6 billion pounds.
     0430 ETUK Mar mortgage approvals expected 72,000, Feb 70,300.
     0430 ETUK Mar M4 money supply, Feb +0.7% m/m and +0.7% y/y.
     0430 ETUK Apr Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 55.4, Mar 55.3.
    CHIn/aChinese markets closed for Labour Day holiday.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/01/2014

    Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
    Mylan Inc/PAMYL USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.625
    Xcel Energy IncXEL USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.503
    Airgas IncARG USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.198
    Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.056
    PG&E CorpPCG USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.634
    BorgWarner IncBWA USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.799
    PPL CorpPPL USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.713
    ConocoPhillipsCOP USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.553
    Avon Products IncAVP USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.209
    Ball CorpBLL USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.672
    L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.949
    Becton Dickinson and CoBDX USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.503
    Quanta Services IncPWR USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.418
    Viacom IncVIAB USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.047
    Clorox Co/TheCLX USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.076
    Iron Mountain IncIRM USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.258
    Textron IncTXT USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.343
    MasterCard IncMA USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.719
    Cardinal Health IncCAH USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.006
    CenterPoint Energy IncCNP USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.321
    Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.683
    CME Group Inc/ILCME USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.827
    Host Hotels & Resorts IncHST USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.304
    Cigna CorpCI US6:30Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.541
    Motorola Solutions IncMSI US7:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.499
    American Tower CorpAMT US7:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.04
    Legg Mason IncLM US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.578
    Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US7:30Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.962
    Invesco LtdIVZ US7:30Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.554
    Motorola Solutions IncMSI US8:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Allegion PLCALLE US8:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Becton Dickinson and CoBDX US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014 
    Textron IncTXT US8:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Exxon Mobil CorpXOM US8:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.877
    Harman International Industries IncHAR US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.009
    Kellogg CoK US8:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.972
    Legg Mason IncLM US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014 
    MetLife IncMET US8:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    PPL CorpPPL US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Viacom IncVIAB US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014 
    Cigna CorpCI US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Iron Mountain IncIRM US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Tesoro CorpTSO US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    MasterCard IncMA US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    American Tower CorpAMT US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Cardinal Health IncCAH US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    CME Group Inc/ILCME US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Avon Products IncAVP US9:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Invesco LtdIVZ US9:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    BorgWarner IncBWA US9:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Quanta Services IncPWR US9:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Ford Motor CoF US9:30April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014 
    Williams Cos Inc/TheWMB US9:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Kellogg CoK US9:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Xcel Energy IncXEL US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Airgas IncARG US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014 
    Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Capital One Financial CorpCOF US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Total System Services IncTSS US10:00Annual General Meeting  
    Duke Energy CorpDUK US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Ford Motor CoF US10:00April 2014 Sales and Revenue Call2014 
    Gannett Co IncGCI US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Lincoln National CorpLNC US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Host Hotels & Resorts IncHST US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Northeast UtilitiesNU US10:30Annual General Meeting  
    Tractor Supply CoTSCO US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Mylan Inc/PAMYL US11:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Equity ResidentialEQR US11:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    PG&E CorpPCG US11:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Valero Energy CorpVLO US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Ball CorpBLL US11:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL US11:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Exxon Mobil CorpXOM US11:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Harman International Industries IncHAR US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    Goldman Sachs Group Inc/TheGS US11:30Q1 2014 Earnings Call - Fixed IncomeQ1 2014 
    CenterPoint Energy IncCNP US11:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    ConocoPhillipsCOP US12:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    HCP IncHCP US12:30Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Eastman Chemical CoEMN US12:30Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Murphy Oil CorpMUR US13:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Allegheny Technologies IncATI US13:00Annual General Meeting  
    Clorox Co/TheCLX US13:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014 
    Western Union Co/TheWU US16:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.349
    Kraft Foods Group IncKRFT US16:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.759
    Prologis IncPLD US16:30Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Akamai Technologies IncAKAM US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Western Union Co/TheWU US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Wynn Resorts LtdWYNN US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Expedia IncEXPE US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    DaVita HealthCare Partners IncDVA US17:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncVRTX US17:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Kraft Foods Group IncKRFT US17:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Fluor CorpFLR USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.967
    DaVita HealthCare Partners IncDVA USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.857
    Mohawk Industries IncMHK USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.179
    Southwestern Energy CoSWN USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.629
    Public StoragePSA USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.852
    Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncVRTX USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 2014-0.769
    XL Group PLCXL USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.739
    Akamai Technologies IncAKAM USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.534
    Integrys Energy Group IncTEG USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.753
    Wynn Resorts LtdWYNN USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20142.067
    Apartment Investment & Management CoAIV USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.485
    Expedia IncEXPE USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.154
    Fluor CorpFLR US17:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014 
    Mead Johnson Nutrition CoMJN US Annual General Meeting  
    Fluor CorpFLR US Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Archer-Daniels-Midland CoADM US Annual General Meeting  
    Verizon Communications IncVZ US Annual General Meeting  
    Bemis Co IncBMS US Annual General Meeting  
    Health Care REIT IncHCN US Annual General Meeting  
    Cabot Oil & Gas CorpCOG US Annual General Meeting  
    Yum! Brands IncYUM US Annual General Meeting  
    DTE Energy CoDTE US Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Public StoragePSA US Annual General Meeting  
    Dover CorpDOV US Annual General Meeting  
    EOG Resources IncEOG US Annual General Meeting  
    Expeditors International of Washington IncEXPD US Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.415
    St Jude Medical IncSTJ US Annual General Meeting  
    Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide IncHOT US Annual General Meeting  
    Kansas City SouthernKSU US Annual General Meeting  
    Kimberly-Clark CorpKMB US Annual General Meeting

    Stocks: VIAB, MOC, COP, CNW, CBG, DOX, WTW, FBHS, WDC, EQIX, HOLX, MET, BYD, WLL, MRK, MYL, XEL, ARG, MPC, PCG, BWA, PPL, AVP, BLL, LLL, BDX, PWR, CLX, IRM, TXT, MA, CAH, CNP, FIS, CME, HST, CI, MSI, AMT, LM, PEG, IVZ, ALLE, XOM, HAR, K, TSO
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