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BARCHART MORNING CALL 5/6

|Includes:AGN, AIG, ALL, AME, APC, ATHN, Broadcom Limited (AVGO), AXLL, BAX, BMY, DFS, DISCA, DNR, E, EMR, EOG, ETFC, FE, FSLR, G, HCP, IFF, KHC, KIM, LLL, MCHP, MOS, MRK, MRO, MUSA, NLSN, NRG, OKE, PBI, PXD, RDC, SIAL, SMG, T, THC, THO, TRIP, VMC, VNO, WFM, XRAY, XYL, Y, ZTS

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, May 6th, 2014

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.04%) this morning are up +0.11% and European stocks are down -0.07% as the unrest in Ukraine intensifies. Ukraine's Interior Ministry said that rebels have seized more than 30 government buildings in the eastern part of the country, and that government forces were sent to the southern city of Odessa to quell disturbances there. Losses in European stocks were limited after the OECD raised its Eurozone 2014 GDP estimates and after Eurozone Mar retail sales unexpectedly rose. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for holiday, China +0.04%, Taiwan +0.47%, Australia +0.35%, Singapore +0.12%, India +0.28%. Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM14 +0.17%) is up +0.22%. Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.21%) is up +0.29%. Jun gold (GCM14 +0.11%) is down -0.02%. July copper (HGN14 +0.29%) is up +0.16%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.44%) is down -0.39% at a 6-1/4 month low after the OECD cut its U.S. 2014 GDP estimate. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.43% at a 1-1/2 month high on expectations the ECB will refrain from additional stimulus measures at Thursday's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.30%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.10%) are down -3.5 ticks ahead of the start of the Treasury's May quarterly refunding.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its global 2014 GDP forecast to 3.4% from 3.6% predicted in November, the second reduction in 6 months, as it lowered its China 2014 GDP estimate to 7.4% from a Nov estimate of 8.2%. The OECD hiked its Eurozone 2014 GDP forecast to 1.2% from a 1.0% estimate in Nov, while it lowered its U.S. 2014 GDP forecast to 2.6% from a 2.9% estimate in Nov.

The Eurozone Markit Apr composite PMI was left unchanged at 54.0, right on expectations and the fastest pace of expansion in 2-3/4 years.

Eurozone Mar retail sales unexpectedly rose +0.3% m/m, better than expectations of -0.2% m/m, while on an annual basis Mar retail sales rose +0.9% y/y, less than expectations of +1.0% y/y.

The UK Markit/CIPS Apr composite PMI rose +1.4 to 59.2, the fastest pace of expansion in 5 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today's March U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$40.5 billion from -$42.3 billion in February. The Treasury today will sell $29 billion of 3-year T-notes. There are 26 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Walt Disney (consensus $0.95), Allstate (1.20), Emerson Electric (0.81), First Solar (0.52), Marathon Oil (0.72), Electronic Arts (0.11), Whole Foods Markets (0.41).

Equity conferences this week include: Barclays Chemical ROC Stars Conference on Tue, Barclays High Yield Bond & Syndicated Loan Conference on Tue, Robert W. Baird & Co. Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wells Fargo Industrial & Construction Conference on Wed-Thu, Jefferies Global Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, and
Deutsche Bank Healthcare Conference on Wed-Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Avago (AVGO -0.03%) jumped over 4% in pre-market trading after it was announced that it will replace LSI Corp. (LSI unch) in the S&P 500 as of the May 7 close.

Emerson Electric (EMR +0.13%) reported Q2 EPS of 77 cents, weaker than consensus of 81 cents.

Discovery Commnications (DISCA +1.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 75 cents, higher than consensus of 71 cents.

DirecTV (DTV -0.04%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.44, below consensus of $1.48

EOG Resources (EOG +2.26%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.21, better than consensus of $1.20.

Barron's reported that four Discover (DFS -0.16%) insiders sold 140,353 shares of stock.

Axiall (AXLL +0.91%) reported a Q1 adjusted EPS loss of -8 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -5 cents.

athenahealth (ATHN -0.02%) plunged 10% in after-hours trading after activist investor David Einhorn said he is short the stock.

Murphy USA (MUSA +4.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 21 cents, below consensus of 22 cents.

Alleghany (Y +0.56%) reported Q1 EPS of $12.28, well above consensus of $8.02.

Thor Industries (THO -0.34%) reported Q3 preliminary revenue of $1.05 bllion, below consensus of $1.09 billion.

Anadarko (APC -0.08%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.26, better than consensus of $1.16.

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG -1.08%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.17, stronger than consensus of $1.97.

AIG (AIG +0.71%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.21, higher than consensus of $1.07.

Genpact (G -1.34%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 24 cents, better than consensus of 23 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.04%) this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.11%). The S&P 500 index on Monday shook off early losses and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.19%, Dow Jones +0.11%, Nasdaq +0.49%. Bearish factors for stocks included (1) Chinese growth concerns after the China Apr HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 48.1 from the originally reported 48.3, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 48.4, and (2) geopolitical risks after violence in Ukraine spread to the southern part of the country. Stocks rebounded after the Apr ISM non-manufacturing index rose +2.1 to 55.2, a larger increase than expectations of +0.9 to 54.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 8 months.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.10%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Apr ISM non-manufacturing index that expanded at the fastest pace in 8 months, and (2) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $69 billion of T-notes and T-bonds in this week's May quarterly refunding. Closes: TYM4 -2.50, FVM4 unch.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.44%) this morning is down -0.308 (-0.39%) at a 6-1/4 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0060 (+0.43%) at a 1-1/2 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.31 (-0.30%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly lower. Dollar index -0.030 (-0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY -0.066 (-0.06%). Negative factors for the dollar included (1) strength in the yen after USD/JPY fell to a 2-week low after BOJ Governor Kuroda said in a CNBC interview that the economic recovery is on track, which dampened speculation the BOJ would add to monetary stimulus, and (2) strength in EUR/USD on speculation that the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting will refrain from additional stimulus measures.

Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 +0.17%) this morning is up +22 cents (+0.22%). Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.21%) is up +0.0084 (+0.29%). Jun crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower with Jun gasoline at a 4-week low. Bearish factors included (1) concern that China's economy may slow further after the China Apr HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower, and (2) weakness in gasoline on expectations for U.S. refiners to begin to ramp up gasoline production for the summer driving season as seasonal maintenance to refiners ends. Closes: CLM4 -0.28 (-0.28%). RBM4 -0.03538 (-1.20%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/06/2014

US 0830 ET Mar trade deficit expected -$40.5 billion, Feb -$42.3 billion.
  1300 ET Treasury auctions $29 billion of 3-year T-notes.
  1900 ET Fed Governor Jeremy Stein speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Money Marketeers of NYU.
GER 0355 ET Revised German Apr Markit/BME composite PMI, previous 56.3.
EUR 0400 ET Revised Eurozone Apr Markit composite PMI, previous 54.0.
  0500 ET Eurozone Mar retail sales expected -0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Feb +0.4% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
UK 1901 ET UK Apr BRC shop price index expected -0.8% y/y, Mar -1.7% y/y.
JPN 1915 ET Japan Apr Markit/JMMA composite PMI, Mar 52.8.
  n/a Japanese markets closed for Greenery Day holiday.
CHI 2145 ET China Apr HSBC composite PMI, Mar 49.3.
Click to enlarge

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/06/2014

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
DIRECTV DTV US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.479
Rowan Cos Plc RDC US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.201
Zoetis Inc ZTS US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.367
Denbury Resources Inc DNR US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.247
Emerson Electric Co EMR US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.81
NRG Energy Inc NRG US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 -0.13
Vulcan Materials Co VMC US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 -0.333
HCP Inc HCP US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.742
AMETEK Inc AME US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.563
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc IFF US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.253
FirstEnergy Corp FE US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.417
Discovery Communications Inc DISCA US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.708
Mosaic Co/The MOS US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.587
DENTSPLY International Inc XRAY US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.555
American International Group Inc AIG US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Pitney Bowes Inc PBI US 8:00 Analyst Day Y 2014  
NRG Energy Inc NRG US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Discovery Communications Inc DISCA US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Zoetis Inc ZTS US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
E*TRADE Financial Corp ETFC US 8:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
DENTSPLY International Inc XRAY US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
AMETEK Inc AME US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Anadarko Petroleum Corp APC US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Exelon Corp EXC US 9:00 Annual General Meeting    
Avon Products Inc AVP US 9:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Nielsen Holdings NV NLSN US 9:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Mosaic Co/The MOS US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Merck & Co Inc MRK US 9:00 Investor Day 2014  
Kraft Foods Group Inc KRFT US 9:30 Annual General Meeting    
Tenet Healthcare Corp THC US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Baxter International Inc BAX US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co BMY US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
EOG Resources Inc EOG US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Vornado Realty Trust VNO US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc IFF US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Kimco Realty Corp KIM US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Boston Scientific Corp BSX US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Rowan Cos Plc RDC US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Xylem Inc/NY XYL US 11:00 Annual General Meeting    
Denbury Resources Inc DNR US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Vulcan Materials Co VMC US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Varian Medical Systems Inc VAR US 11:30 Investor Meeting Y 2014  
HCP Inc HCP US 12:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Sigma-Aldrich Corp SIAL US 12:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Allergan Inc/United States AGN US 13:00 Annual General Meeting    
FirstEnergy Corp FE US 13:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
DIRECTV DTV US 14:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Emerson Electric Co EMR US 14:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc LLL US 14:30 Annual General Meeting    
Danaher Corp DHR US 15:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Allstate Corp/The ALL US 16:05 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.204
Walt Disney Co/The DIS US 16:15 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.953
Frontier Communications Corp FTR US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
First Solar Inc FSLR US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
TripAdvisor Inc TRIP US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
Microchip Technology Inc MCHP US 17:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014  
Walt Disney Co/The DIS US 17:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Electronic Arts Inc EA US 17:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014  
Whole Foods Market Inc WFM US 17:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
ONEOK Inc OKE US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.367
Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.061
Microchip Technology Inc MCHP US Aft-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.619
Frontier Communications Corp FTR US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.061
First Solar Inc FSLR US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.524
Marathon Oil Corp MRO US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.716
Electronic Arts Inc EA US Aft-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.107
FMC Corp FMC US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.945
Whole Foods Market Inc WFM US Aft-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.409
TripAdvisor Inc TRIP US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.544
Zimmer Holdings Inc ZMH US   Annual General Meeting    
Plum Creek Timber Co Inc PCL US   Annual General Meeting    
QUALCOMM Inc QCOM US   Investor Day Y 2014  
Google Inc GOOGL US   Google vs. Vringo Inc. Trial Arguments on Dispute of Filtering Technology    
AutoNation Inc AN US   Annual General Meeting    
O'Reilly Automotive Inc ORLY US   Annual General Meeting    
Sigma-Aldrich Corp SIAL US   Annual General Meeting    
Masco Corp MAS US   Annual General Meeting
Click to enlarge
Stocks: AVGO, EMR, DISCA, T, EOG, DFS, AXLL, ATHN, MUSA, Y, THO, APC, SMG, AIG, G, RDC, ZTS, DNR, NRG, VMC, HCP, AME, IFF, FE, MOS, XRAY, PBI, ETFC, NLSN, MRK, KHC, THC, BAX, BMY, VNO, KIM, XYL, SIAL, AGN, LLL, ALL, FSLR, TRIP, MCHP, WFM, OKE, PXD, MRO, E