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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL5 9/ 0 comments
    May 8, 2014 3:22 PM | about stocks: PCLN, T, KND, CCRN, RIG, CF, CAR, CTL, CZR, PRU, MDR, TSLA, FOXA, RNDY, UNWL, GMCR, SNI, CVC, PCP, TDC, HCN, REGN, ICE, AES, WIN, AEE, LB, APEI, UPS, NCS, F, NRG, GHC, QEP, RAI, AIZ, NUE, KIM, ECL, BTUUQ, MNST, CBS, NWSA, SYMC, THC, COST, CHRW, MCD

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Thursday, May 8th, 2014

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.07%) this morning are up +0.03% and European stocks are up +0.54% after China Apr exports unexpectedly rose, a sign of improvement in global demand. Gains in European stocks were muted after German Mar industrial production unexpectedly fell and ahead of the outcome of today's ECB policy meeting. At the conclusion of its policy meeting today, the BOE as expected maintained its benchmark rate at 0.50% and kept its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.93%, Hong Kong +0.42%, China -0.09%, Taiwan +0.42%, Australia +0.75%, Singapore +0.35%, South Korea +0.59%, India +0.09%. Asian markets found support on stronger-than-expected Chinese Apr exports along with dovish comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said the Fed will continue to support the U.S. economy. Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -0.12%) is down -0.40%. Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.14%) is up +0.03%. Jun gold (GCM14 +0.34%) is up +0.26%. July copper (HGN14 +0.03%) is down -0.05%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) is down -0.16%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.24%, just below Tuesday's 1-3/4 month high, amid speculation the ECB will refrain from announcing additional stimulus measures at today's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.06%) are down -2 ticks.

    The China Apr trade balance widened to a +$18.46 billion surplus, more than expectations of a +$16.70 billion surplus. Apr exports unexpectedly increased by +0.9% y/y, better than expectations of -3.0% y/y, and Apr imports rose by +0.8% y/y, also better than expectations of -2.1% y/y.

    German Mar industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis, Mar industrial production climbed +3.0% y/y, less than expectations of +4.4% y/y.

    UK Apr Halifax house prices fell -0.2% m/m and rose +8.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.9% m/m and +9.1% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a -19,000 decline to 325,000, more than reversing last week's increase of +14,000 to 344,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to fall -11,000 to 2.760 million, reversing part of last week's increase of +97,000 to 2.771 million. The Treasury today will sell $16 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week's $69 billion quarterly refunding operation.

    There are 17 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Computer Sciences (consensus $1.04), Regeneron (2.27), ICE Group (2.61), Priceline (6.84), Apache (1.60), Symantec (0.42). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wells Fargo Industrial & Construction Conference on Wed-Thu, Jefferies Global Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, and Deutsche Bank Healthcare Conference on Wed-Fri.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Priceline Group (PCLN -3.13%) reported Q1 EPS of $7.81, well above consensus of $6.84.

    The WSJ reported that DirecTV (DTV +7.96%) has engaged Goldman Sachs (GS +0.63%) to evaluate a potential deal with AT&T (T +0.76%) .

    Kindred Healthcare (KND +0.80%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 32 cents, below consensus of 33 cents.

    JP Morgan Chase reported a 10.2% passive stake in Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN -5.96%) .

    Transocean (RIG +0.63%) climbed more than 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.43, well above consensus of $1.02.

    CF Industries (CF +0.55%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $4.51, below consensus of $4.54.

    Avis Budget (CAR +0.28%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 16 cents, double consensus of 8 cents.

    CenturyLink (CTL +0.55%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 66 cents, better than consensus of 61 cents.

    Caesar's (CZR +14.12%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -$2.82, a much wider loss than consensus of -$1.15.

    Prudential (PRU +0.99%) reported Q1 EPS of $2.40, higher than consensus of $2.26.

    McDermott (MDR unch) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -21 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -12 cents.

    Tesla (TSLA -2.86%) dropped over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 12 cents, better than consensus of 10 cents, but then said battery cell supply will constrain Q2 production.

    21st Century Fox (FOXA -0.89%) reportED Q3 adjusted EPS OF 47 cents, stronger than consensus of 35 cents.

    Roundy's (RNDY -2.86%) reported Q1 EPS of 1 cents, weaker than consensus of 3 cents.

    Unum Group (UNM +1.57%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 87 cents, better than consensus of 85 cents.

    Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR -3.21%) jumped over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.08, higher than consensus of 94 cents.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.07%) this morning are up +0.50 of a point (+0.03%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday recovered from a 1-week low and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.56%, Dow Jones +0.72%, Nasdaq -0.28%. Bullish factors included (1) reduced interest rate concerns after Fed Chair Yellen said that the Fed must continue to spur growth as employment and inflation indicators remain below the Fed's goals, and (2) upbeat earnings results with 75% of the 422 S&P 500 companies that have already reported Q1 earnings beating estimates. A negative factor was the -1.7% drop in U.S. Q2 non-farm productivity, the biggest decline in a year and weaker than expectations of -1.2%.

    Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.06%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed higher on comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said a "high degree" of accommodation remains warranted: TYM4 +7.50, FVM4 +6.00. T-note prices also found support from strong foreign demand for the Treasury's $24 billion 10-year T-note auction as indirect bidders, an investor class that includes foreign central banks, bought 49.3% of the notes at auction, higher than the 12-auction average of 43.9%.

    The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) this morning is down -0.124 (-0.16%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0033 (+0.24%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher. Dollar index +0.109 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.0017 (-0.12%), USD/JPY +0.218 (+0.21%). The main bullish factor for the dollar was weakness in EUR/USD on long liquidation ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting and after German Mar factory orders unexpectedly declined. Dollar strength was limited after Fed Chair Yellen said that a "high degree" of accommodation remains warranted.

    Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 -0.12%) this morning is down -40 cents (-0.40%). Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.14%) is up +0.0008 (+0.03%). Jun crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher with Jun crude at a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the -1.395 million bbl decline in crude inventories at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, to a 5-1/3 yr low of 24.03 million bbl, and (2) the unexpected -1.781 mln bbl decline in weekly EIA crude inventories versus expectations for a +1.15 million bbl build. Closes: CLM4 +1.27 (+1.28%). RBM4 +0.0324 (+1.12%).

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/08/2014

    US 0800 ET Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on Communication and Transparency in the Conduct of Systematic Monetary Policy to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
      0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -19,000 to 325,000, previous +14,000 to 344,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -13,000 to 2.758 million, previous +97,000 to 2.771 million.
      0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
      0925 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans delivers welcoming remarks to the Chicago Feds Bank Regulation Conference.
      0930 ET Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies to the Senate Budget Committee on the economic outlook.
      0930 ET Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo delivers keynote address at to the Chicago Feds Bank Regulation Conference.
      1300 ET Treasury auctions $16 billion 30-year T-bonds.
      1400 ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard delivers welcoming remarks at a St. Louis Fed conference title The Balance Sheets of Younger Americans: Is the American Dream at Risk?
    GER 0200 ET German Mar industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +4.4% y/y, Feb +0.4% m/m and +4.8% y/y.
    UK 0700 ET BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target.
    EUR 0745 ET ECB announces interest rate decision.
      0830 ET ECB President Mario Draghi holds monthly press conference following ECB meeting.
    CHI 2130 ET China Apr CPI expected +2.1% y/y, Mar +2.4% y/y. Apr PPI expected -1.9% y/y, Mar -2.3% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/08/2014

    Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
    Scripps Networks Interactive Inc SNI US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.812
    Cablevision Systems Corp CVC US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.047
    Precision Castparts Corp PCP US Bef-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 3.198
    Teradata Corp TDC US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.473
    Health Care REIT Inc HCN US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.982
    Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 2.269
    IntercontinentalExchange Group Inc ICE US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 2.612
    AES Corp/VA AES US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.272
    Windstream Holdings Inc WIN US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.087
    Ameren Corp AEE US Bef-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.318
    Priceline Group Inc/The PCLN US 7:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 6.844
    Priceline Group Inc/The PCLN US 7:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    L Brands Inc LB US 7:30 April 2014 Sales and Revenue Call 2014  
    Apache Corp APA US 8:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 1.604
    United Parcel Service Inc UPS US 8:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Norfolk Southern Corp NSC US 8:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Teradata Corp TDC US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    IntercontinentalExchange Group Inc ICE US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Ford Motor Co F US 8:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Windstream Holdings Inc WIN US 8:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Unum Group UNM US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    NRG Energy Inc NRG US 9:00 Annual General Meeting    
    Graham Holdings Co GHC US 9:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    AES Corp/VA AES US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    QEP Resources Inc QEP US 9:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Reynolds American Inc RAI US 9:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Assurant Inc AIZ US 9:00 Annual General Meeting    
    CVS Caremark Corp CVS US 9:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Scripps Networks Interactive Inc SNI US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Nucor Corp NUE US 10:00 Annual General Meeting    
    Cablevision Systems Corp CVC US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Precision Castparts Corp PCP US 10:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014  
    Health Care REIT Inc HCN US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Transocean Ltd RIG US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    CF Industries Holdings Inc CF US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Ameren Corp AEE US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Kimco Realty Corp KIM US 10:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Ecolab Inc ECL US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Peabody Energy Corp BTU US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
    Prudential Financial Inc PRU US 11:00 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014  
    Monster Beverage Corp MNST US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.49
    CBS Corp CBS US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 0.744
    News Corp NWSA US Aft-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.03
    Symantec Corp SYMC US Aft-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.417
    Tenet Healthcare Corp THC US   Annual General Meeting    
    Republic Services Inc RSG US   Annual General Meeting    
    Gap Inc/The GPS US   April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release 2014  
    Costco Wholesale Corp COST US   April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release 2014  
    AMETEK Inc AME US   Annual General Meeting    
    CH Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW US   Annual General Meeting    
    L Brands Inc LB US   April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release 2014  
    McDonald's Corp MCD US   April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release 2014  
    Stocks: PCLN, T, KND, CCRN, RIG, CF, CAR, CTL, CZR, PRU, MDR, TSLA, FOXA, RNDY, UNWL, GMCR, SNI, CVC, PCP, TDC, HCN, REGN, ICE, AES, WIN, AEE, LB, APEI, UPS, NCS, F, NRG, GHC, QEP, RAI, AIZ, NUE, KIM, ECL, BTUUQ, MNST, CBS, NWSA, SYMC, THC, COST, CHRW, MCD
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