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BARCHART MORNING CALL 5/21

|Includes:ADI, AMGN, AMZN, APH, AVY, BA, BAH, CMCSA, COP, CRM, DGX, DY, FOSL, FSLR, HAL, HIG, HRL, INTU, JNPR, LB, LOW, MDLZ, NOC, NTAP, OKE, PETM, PNW, PPL, R, ROP, ROST, SRCL, TGT, Tiffany & Co. (TIF), TJX, UPS, UTX, XEL, XRAY

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, May 21st, 2014

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.23%) this morning are up +0.19% and European stocks are up +0.04% ahead of a speech from Fed Chair Yellen later today. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.24%, Hong Kong +0.01%, China +0.95%, Taiwan -0.29%, Australia +0.08%, Singapore -0.11%, South Korea -0.24%, India -0.32%. China's Shanghai Stock Index rebounded from a 2-month low and closed higher on speculation that the dip in the stock index below the 2000 level triggered buying by state-linked funds to enter the market and buy Chinese stocks. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 +0.74%) is up +0.67% at a 1-month high after weekly API data showed crude supplies shrank by -10.3 million bbl last week. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.23%) is up +0.28%. Jun gold (GCM14 -0.42%) is down -0.25%. July copper (HGN14 -1.19%) is down -1.03% at a 1-week low after Moody's Investors Service lowered its outlook for China's property industry to negative from stable, citing a slowdown in home sales growth. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is down -0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.15%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.28% at a 3-1/2 month low after the BOJ refrained from additional stimulus measures and said "Japan's economy is expected to continue a moderate recovery as a trend." The British pound climbed to a 1-week high against the dollar after UK Apr retail sales beat expectations and after the minutes of the May 7-8 BOE meeting showed some policy makers said the arguments favoring a rate increase are growing. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.10%) are down -3 ticks.

UK Apr retail sales ex autos rose +1.8% m/m and +7.7% y/y, more than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y with the +7.7 y/y gain the largest annual increase in 12 years. Apr retail sales including autos rose +1.3% m/m and +6.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +5.1% y/y with the +6.9% y/y gain the largest annual increase in 12 years.

The Eurozone Mar current account widened to a +20.9 billion euro surplus (nsa) from a downward revised +13.8 billion euro surplus in Feb.

The Japan Apr trade balance shrank to a -808.9 billion yen deficit from a downward revised -1.446 trillion yen deficit in Mar. Apr exports rose +5.1% y/y, better than expectations of +4.4% y/y. Apr imports gained +3.4% y/y, better than expectations of +1.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The FOMC today will release the minutes from its April 29-30 meeting. There are 7 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Tiffany (consensus $0.78), PetSmart (1.02), Lowe's (0.60), Hormel Foods (0.56), Target (0.71), NetApp (0.79), L Brands (0.52).

Equity conferences this week include: UBS Global Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, UBS Global Oil and Gas conference on Mon-Thu, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Wolfe Research Global Transportation Conference on Tue-Wed, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Financial Services Unconference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Financial Services Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Services One-On-One Conference on Wed, National Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships NAPTP MLP Investor Confere on Wed, BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference on Wed-Thu, Medical Devices & Diagnostics Business Review on Thu, St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2014 on Thu, and Bloomberg Industries & CME Group Precious Metals Forum on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Tiffany (TIF -2.78%) reported Q1 EPS of 97 cents, well above consensus of 78 cents.

Raymond James (RJF -1.88%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.

Citigroup raised its price target for ConocoPhillips (COP +0.14%) shares to $100 from $85 and keeps a 'Buy' rating on the stock.

Booz Allen (BAH -0.57%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, higher than consensus of 31 cents.

TJX (TJX -7.62%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at SunTrust.

Hormel Foods (HRL -1.10%) reported Q2 EPS of 52 cents, below consensus of 56 cents.

Lowe's (LOW -0.07%) reported Q1 EPS of 58 cents, weaker than consensus of 60 cents.

Pratt & Whitney (UTX -1.67%) says it has 5,500 orders in backlog for geared turbofan engines.

Dycom (DY -3.18%) reported Q3 EPS of 23 cents, better than consensus of 22 cents.

Salesforce.com (CRM -0.64%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 11 cents, higher than consensus of 10 cents.

Analog Devices (ADI unch) rose 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 59 cents, higher than consensus of 56 cents.

Amgen (AMGN +0.12%) announced that The New England Journal of Medicine published results from a Phase 1 study that showed 'positive' data for asthma treatment with Amgen's 157 drug.

Intuit (INTU -0.30%) slipped nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $3.53, better than consensus of $3.50, but then lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to 6 cents-8 cents, below consensus of 12 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.23%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.19%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed lower. Bearish factors for stock included (1) hawkish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser who said that recent labor-market strength may mean the Fed starts to increase interest rates "sooner rather than later," and (2) weakness in retailers after Staples, Dicks Sporting Goods and Urban Outfitters slumped on worse-than-estimated earnings. Closes: S&P 500 -0.65%, Dow Jones -0.83%, Nasdaq -0.42%.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.10%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher as a slide in stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYM4 +8.50, FVM4 +5.50. Gains in T-note prices were limited after Philadelphia Fed President Plosser said that labor-market gains may mean the Fed will need to begin raising interest rates "sooner rather than later."

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is down -0.031 (-0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0021 (-0.15%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.28 (-0.28%) at a 3-1/2 month low. The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher: Dollar index +0.048 (+0.06%), EUR/USD -0.00076 (-0.06%), USD/JPY -0.168 (-0.17%). Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) weaker stocks that boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD after ECB Council member Linde suggested he may favor additional ECB stimulus when he said the "most immediate risk in the Eurozone today" is the possibility of a scenario of low inflation during too prolonged a period.

July WTI crude oil (CLN14 +0.74%) this morning is up +69 cents (+0.67%) at a 1-month high. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.23%) is up +0.0082 (+0.28%). July crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher: CLN4 +0.22 (+0.22%) RBN4 +0.0054 (+0.18%). The main supportive factor for crude prices was the market expectation that Wednesday's weekly EIA will show that crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, slipped to a fresh 5-1/2 year low.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/21/2014

US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +3.6% with purchase sub-index -0.1% and refi sub-index +6.8%.
  1030 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
  1100 ET Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers commencement speech at NYU.
  1250 ET Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the U.S. economy and banking in Washington D.C.
  1330 ET Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks to the Economic Club of Minnesota.
  1400 ET Minutes of the April 29-30 FOMC meeting.
EUR 0400 ET Eurozone Mar current account, Feb +13.9 billion euros (nsa).
  1000 ET Eurozone May consumer confidence expected +0.3 to -8.3, Apr -8.6.
UK 0430 ET Minutes of the May 7-8 BOE policy meeting.
  0430 ET UK Apr retail sales ex autos expected +0.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y, Mar -0.4% m/m and +4.2% y/y. Apr retail sales including autos expected +0.4% m/m and +5.1% y/y, Mar +0.1% m/m and +4.2% y/y.
CHI 2145 ET China May HSBC manufacturing PMI expected +0.2 to 48.3, Apr +0.1 to 48.1.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/21/2014

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Tiffany & Co TIF US Bef-mkt Q1 2015 Earnings Release Q1 2015 0.775
PetSmart Inc PETM US Bef-mkt Q1 2015 Earnings Release Q1 2015 1.015
Lowe's Cos Inc LOW US 6:00 Q1 2015 Earnings Release Q1 2015 0.601
Hormel Foods Corp HRL US 6:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.559
Target Corp TGT US 7:30 Q1 2015 Earnings Release Q1 2015 0.708
Northrop Grumman Corp NOC US 8:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Tiffany & Co TIF US 8:30 Q1 2015 Earnings Call Q1 2015  
Comcast Corp CMCSA US 9:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Hormel Foods Corp HRL US 9:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Lowe's Cos Inc LOW US 9:00 Q1 2015 Earnings Call Q1 2015  
Avery Dennison Corp AVY US 9:30 Investment Community Meeting Y 2014  
ONEOK Inc OKE US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Mondelez International Inc MDLZ US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Halliburton Co HAL US 10:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
PetSmart Inc PETM US 10:00 Q1 2015 Earnings Call Q1 2015  
Fossil Group Inc FOSL US 10:00 Annual General Meeting    
Boeing Co/The BA US 10:30 Investor Conference    
Target Corp TGT US 10:30 Q1 2015 Earnings Call Q1 2015  
Quest Diagnostics Inc DGX US 10:30 Annual General Meeting    
Xcel Energy Inc XEL US 12:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Amazon.com Inc AMZN US 12:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Juniper Networks Inc JNPR US 12:00 Annual General Meeting    
Hartford Financial Services Group Inc/The HIG US 12:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
NetApp Inc NTAP US 16:01 Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.793
CME Group Inc/IL CME US 16:30 Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
NetApp Inc NTAP US 17:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014  
L Brands Inc LB US Aft-mkt Q1 2015 Earnings Release Q1 2015 0.519
PPL Corp PPL US   Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
Pinnacle West Capital Corp PNW US   Annual General Meeting    
Roper Industries Inc ROP US   Annual General Meeting    
Ross Stores Inc ROST US   Annual General Meeting    
Stericycle Inc SRCL US   Annual General Meeting Y 2014  
First Solar Inc FSLR US   Annual General Meeting    
DENTSPLY International Inc XRAY US   Annual General Meeting    
United Parcel Service Inc UPS US   Roadshow - Montreal Y 2014  
Amphenol Corp APH US   Annual General Meeting
Stocks: TIF, R, COP, BAH, TJX, HRL, LOW, UTX, DY, CRM, ADI, AMGN, INTU, PETM, TGT, NOC, CMCSA, AVY, OKE, MDLZ, HAL, FOSL, BA, DGX, XEL, AMZN, JNPR, HIG, NTAP, LB, PPL, PNW, ROP, ROST, SRCL, FSLR, XRAY, UPS, APH