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Jim Van Meerten
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Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and... More
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  • BARCHART MORNING CALL 5/21 0 comments
    May 21, 2014 10:57 AM | about stocks: TIF, R, COP, BAH, TJX, HRL, LOW, UTX, DY, CRM, ADI, AMGN, INTU, PETM, TGT, NOC, CMCSA, AVY, OKE, MDLZ, HAL, FOSL, BA, DGX, XEL, AMZN, JNPR, HIG, NTAP, LB, PPL, PNW, ROP, ROST, SRCL, FSLR, XRAY, UPS, APH

    BARCHART MORNING CALL

    Wednesday, May 21st, 2014

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    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.23%) this morning are up +0.19% and European stocks are up +0.04% ahead of a speech from Fed Chair Yellen later today. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.24%, Hong Kong +0.01%, China +0.95%, Taiwan -0.29%, Australia +0.08%, Singapore -0.11%, South Korea -0.24%, India -0.32%. China's Shanghai Stock Index rebounded from a 2-month low and closed higher on speculation that the dip in the stock index below the 2000 level triggered buying by state-linked funds to enter the market and buy Chinese stocks. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 +0.74%) is up +0.67% at a 1-month high after weekly API data showed crude supplies shrank by -10.3 million bbl last week. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.23%) is up +0.28%. Jun gold (GCM14 -0.42%) is down -0.25%. July copper (HGN14 -1.19%) is down -1.03% at a 1-week low after Moody's Investors Service lowered its outlook for China's property industry to negative from stable, citing a slowdown in home sales growth. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is down -0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.15%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.28% at a 3-1/2 month low after the BOJ refrained from additional stimulus measures and said "Japan's economy is expected to continue a moderate recovery as a trend." The British pound climbed to a 1-week high against the dollar after UK Apr retail sales beat expectations and after the minutes of the May 7-8 BOE meeting showed some policy makers said the arguments favoring a rate increase are growing. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.10%) are down -3 ticks.

    UK Apr retail sales ex autos rose +1.8% m/m and +7.7% y/y, more than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y with the +7.7 y/y gain the largest annual increase in 12 years. Apr retail sales including autos rose +1.3% m/m and +6.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +5.1% y/y with the +6.9% y/y gain the largest annual increase in 12 years.

    The Eurozone Mar current account widened to a +20.9 billion euro surplus (nsa) from a downward revised +13.8 billion euro surplus in Feb.

    The Japan Apr trade balance shrank to a -808.9 billion yen deficit from a downward revised -1.446 trillion yen deficit in Mar. Apr exports rose +5.1% y/y, better than expectations of +4.4% y/y. Apr imports gained +3.4% y/y, better than expectations of +1.2% y/y.

    U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

    The FOMC today will release the minutes from its April 29-30 meeting. There are 7 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Tiffany (consensus $0.78), PetSmart (1.02), Lowe's (0.60), Hormel Foods (0.56), Target (0.71), NetApp (0.79), L Brands (0.52).

    Equity conferences this week include: UBS Global Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, UBS Global Oil and Gas conference on Mon-Thu, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Wolfe Research Global Transportation Conference on Tue-Wed, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Financial Services Unconference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Financial Services Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Services One-On-One Conference on Wed, National Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships NAPTP MLP Investor Confere on Wed, BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference on Wed-Thu, Medical Devices & Diagnostics Business Review on Thu, St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2014 on Thu, and Bloomberg Industries & CME Group Precious Metals Forum on Fri.

    OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

    Tiffany (TIF -2.78%) reported Q1 EPS of 97 cents, well above consensus of 78 cents.

    Raymond James (RJF -1.88%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.

    Citigroup raised its price target for ConocoPhillips (COP +0.14%) shares to $100 from $85 and keeps a 'Buy' rating on the stock.

    Booz Allen (BAH -0.57%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, higher than consensus of 31 cents.

    TJX (TJX -7.62%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at SunTrust.

    Hormel Foods (HRL -1.10%) reported Q2 EPS of 52 cents, below consensus of 56 cents.

    Lowe's (LOW -0.07%) reported Q1 EPS of 58 cents, weaker than consensus of 60 cents.

    Pratt & Whitney (UTX -1.67%) says it has 5,500 orders in backlog for geared turbofan engines.

    Dycom (DY -3.18%) reported Q3 EPS of 23 cents, better than consensus of 22 cents.

    Salesforce.com (CRM -0.64%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 11 cents, higher than consensus of 10 cents.

    Analog Devices (ADI unch) rose 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 59 cents, higher than consensus of 56 cents.

    Amgen (AMGN +0.12%) announced that The New England Journal of Medicine published results from a Phase 1 study that showed 'positive' data for asthma treatment with Amgen's 157 drug.

    Intuit (INTU -0.30%) slipped nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $3.53, better than consensus of $3.50, but then lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to 6 cents-8 cents, below consensus of 12 cents.

    MARKET COMMENTS

    June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.23%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.19%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed lower. Bearish factors for stock included (1) hawkish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser who said that recent labor-market strength may mean the Fed starts to increase interest rates "sooner rather than later," and (2) weakness in retailers after Staples, Dicks Sporting Goods and Urban Outfitters slumped on worse-than-estimated earnings. Closes: S&P 500 -0.65%, Dow Jones -0.83%, Nasdaq -0.42%.

    Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.10%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher as a slide in stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYM4 +8.50, FVM4 +5.50. Gains in T-note prices were limited after Philadelphia Fed President Plosser said that labor-market gains may mean the Fed will need to begin raising interest rates "sooner rather than later."

    The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is down -0.031 (-0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0021 (-0.15%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.28 (-0.28%) at a 3-1/2 month low. The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher: Dollar index +0.048 (+0.06%), EUR/USD -0.00076 (-0.06%), USD/JPY -0.168 (-0.17%). Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) weaker stocks that boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD after ECB Council member Linde suggested he may favor additional ECB stimulus when he said the "most immediate risk in the Eurozone today" is the possibility of a scenario of low inflation during too prolonged a period.

    July WTI crude oil (CLN14 +0.74%) this morning is up +69 cents (+0.67%) at a 1-month high. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.23%) is up +0.0082 (+0.28%). July crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher: CLN4 +0.22 (+0.22%) RBN4 +0.0054 (+0.18%). The main supportive factor for crude prices was the market expectation that Wednesday's weekly EIA will show that crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, slipped to a fresh 5-1/2 year low.

    GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/21/2014

    US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +3.6% with purchase sub-index -0.1% and refi sub-index +6.8%.
     1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
     1100 ETFed Chair Janet Yellen delivers commencement speech at NYU.
     1250 ETKansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the U.S. economy and banking in Washington D.C.
     1330 ETMinneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks to the Economic Club of Minnesota.
     1400 ETMinutes of the April 29-30 FOMC meeting.
    EUR0400 ETEurozone Mar current account, Feb +13.9 billion euros (nsa).
     1000 ETEurozone May consumer confidence expected +0.3 to -8.3, Apr -8.6.
    UK0430 ETMinutes of the May 7-8 BOE policy meeting.
     0430 ETUK Apr retail sales ex autos expected +0.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y, Mar -0.4% m/m and +4.2% y/y. Apr retail sales including autos expected +0.4% m/m and +5.1% y/y, Mar +0.1% m/m and +4.2% y/y.
    CHI2145 ETChina May HSBC manufacturing PMI expected +0.2 to 48.3, Apr +0.1 to 48.1.

    U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/21/2014

    Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
    Tiffany & CoTIF USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.775
    PetSmart IncPETM USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.015
    Lowe's Cos IncLOW US6:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.601
    Hormel Foods CorpHRL US6:30Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.559
    Target CorpTGT US7:30Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.708
    Northrop Grumman CorpNOC US8:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Tiffany & CoTIF US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Comcast CorpCMCSA US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Hormel Foods CorpHRL US9:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014 
    Lowe's Cos IncLOW US9:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Avery Dennison CorpAVY US9:30Investment Community MeetingY 2014 
    ONEOK IncOKE US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Mondelez International IncMDLZ US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Halliburton CoHAL US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    PetSmart IncPETM US10:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Fossil Group IncFOSL US10:00Annual General Meeting  
    Boeing Co/TheBA US10:30Investor Conference  
    Target CorpTGT US10:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015 
    Quest Diagnostics IncDGX US10:30Annual General Meeting  
    Xcel Energy IncXEL US12:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Amazon.com IncAMZN US12:00Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Juniper Networks IncJNPR US12:00Annual General Meeting  
    Hartford Financial Services Group Inc/TheHIG US12:30Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    NetApp IncNTAP US16:01Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.793
    CME Group Inc/ILCME US16:30Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    NetApp IncNTAP US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014 
    L Brands IncLB USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.519
    PPL CorpPPL US Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    Pinnacle West Capital CorpPNW US Annual General Meeting  
    Roper Industries IncROP US Annual General Meeting  
    Ross Stores IncROST US Annual General Meeting  
    Stericycle IncSRCL US Annual General MeetingY 2014 
    First Solar IncFSLR US Annual General Meeting  
    DENTSPLY International IncXRAY US Annual General Meeting  
    United Parcel Service IncUPS US Roadshow - MontrealY 2014 
    Amphenol CorpAPH US Annual General Meeting

    Stocks: TIF, R, COP, BAH, TJX, HRL, LOW, UTX, DY, CRM, ADI, AMGN, INTU, PETM, TGT, NOC, CMCSA, AVY, OKE, MDLZ, HAL, FOSL, BA, DGX, XEL, AMZN, JNPR, HIG, NTAP, LB, PPL, PNW, ROP, ROST, SRCL, FSLR, XRAY, UPS, APH
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