Tuesday, July 1st, 2014
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.22%) this morning are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.63%% after Chinese manufacturing activity expanded last month at the fastest pace in 6 months, which may help sustain global economic growth. The Russian Micex Stock Index and the ruble fell after Ukraine refused to extend the cease-fire as Ukrainian President Poroshenko vowed to retake the country's eastern most regions taken over by pro-Russian rebels. Gains in European stocks were tempered after a gauge of Eurozone manufacturing activity was revised down to the slowest pace in 7 months. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.08%, Hong Kong closed for holiday, China -0.03%, Taiwan +0.52%, Australia -0.37%, Singapore -0.40%, South Korea -0.31%, India +0.40%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.30%) is up +0.34%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.13%) is up +0.05%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.36%) is up +0.33% at a 3-1/4 month high on increased safe-haven demand after the truce in Ukraine ended and fighting between government forces and separatists intensified. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.25%) is down -0.14%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with grain prices lower on negative carry-over from Monday's bearish USDA planting intentions report. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.07%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22%. GBP/USD jumped +0.20% to a 5-1/2 year high after UK manufacturing growth unexpectedly accelerated last month to the fastest pace in 7 months. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.21%) are down -8 ticks.
The China Jun manufacturing PMI rose +0.2 to 51.0, right on expectations and the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months.
The Japan Q2 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions fell to 12 from 17 in Q1, weaker than expectations of a decline to 15. The Q2 Tankan large non-manufacturing business conditions fell to 19 from 24 in Q1, right on expectations.
German Jun unemployment unexpectedly rose for a second month as it climbed +9,000, worse than expectations of a -10,000 decline. The Jun unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations.
The German Jun Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised down to 52.0 from the originally reported 52.4, the slowest pace of expansion in 8 months.
The Eurozone Jun Markit manufacturing PMI was revised down to 51.8 from the originally reported 51.9, the slowest pace of expansion in 7 months.
The Eurozone May unemployment rate was unchanged from Apr that was revised lower to a 1-1/2 year low of 11.6% from 11.7%.
The UK Jun Markit PMI manufacturing unexpectedly rose +0.5 to 57.5, better than expectations of -0.2 to 56.8 and the fastest pace of expansion in 7 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's June ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a +0.4 point increase to 55.8, adding to May's +0.5 point increase to 55.4. Today's June total vehicle sales report is expected to fall back to 16.3 million units after posting a 7-1/3 year high of 16.70 million in May. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: Acuity Brands (consensus $1.12), Paychex (0.40). There are no equity conferences this week.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Goldman Sachs upgraded Netflix (NFLX -0.33%) to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' and raised their price target on the stock to $590 from $380.
BofA/Merrill lowered Goldman Sach's (GS +0.40%) Q2 EPS estimate to $3.00 from $3.44, vs. consensus of $3.16 and Morgan Stanley's (MS +2.47%) Q2 EPS estimate to 54 cents from 63 cents, vs. consensus of 58 cents to reflect lower trading revenues and mixed capital markets activity.
FBR Capital reiterated its 'Outperform' rating on Hanesbrands (HBI +0.19%) and raised their price target on the stock to $111 following the company's acquisition of DBApparel.
Urban Outfitters (URBN +0.36%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Wedbush.
Symantec (SYMC +0.57%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at BMO Capital.
Boeing (BA -1.02%) was awarded a $1.94 billion fixed-price-incentive-fee government contract for the full rate production of 11 Lot 38 F/A-18E aircraft for the U.S. Navy and 33 EA-18G aircraft for the U.S. Navy and the government of Australia.
Northrop Grumman (NOC -0.86%) was awarded a $3.64 billion government contract modification for the procurement of 25 full rate production E-2D Advanced Hawkeye aircraft.
Bloomberg reports that BNP Paribas (BNPQY +0.40%) agreed to plead guilty to processing transactions involving Sudan, Iran and Cuba and will pay $8.8 billion in fines.
Expedia (EXPE -0.24%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with a price target of $90.
Goldman Sachs (GS +0.40%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Bernstein.
Priceline (PCLN -0.20%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with a price target of $1450.
TECO Energy (TE +0.76%) filed to sell 15.5 million shares of common stock.
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.22%) this morning are up +4.00 points (+0.20%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed little changed. A bullish factor for the S&P 500 was a rally in homebuilding stocks after U.S. May pending home sales rose +6.1% m/m, much stronger than market expectations of +1.5% m/m and the largest monthly increase in 4 years. Bearish factors included (1) the -2.9 point decline in the Jun Chicago PMI to 62.6, a larger decline than expectations of -2.5 to 63.0, and (2) the prediction from UBS that with the end of the quarter on Monday, fund managers may sell up to $20 billion in stocks as fund manages sell equities and buy bonds to rebalance their portfolios. Closes: S&P 500 -0.04%, Dow Jones -0.15%, Nasdaq +0.13%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.21%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed little changed. A bullish factor for T-notes was the larger-than-expected decline in the Jun Chicago PMI. Limiting strength was the larger-than-expected +6.1% m/m increase in May pending home sales, the biggest jump in 4 years. Closes: TYU4 +2.50, FVU4 +2.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.055 (+0.07%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0001 (-0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22 (+0.22%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD which climbed to a 5-week high after Eurozone Jun core CPI rose more than expected, which reduces the chances of further ECB monetary stimulus, and (2) strength in the yen as USD/JPY fell to a 5-week low amid speculation the BOJ will refrain from boosting monetary stimulus after Friday's Japanese inflation data rose and Japan's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest in over 16 yrs. Closes: Dollar index -0.264 (-0.33%), EUR/USD +0.0045 (+0.33%). USD/JPY -0.054 (-0.05%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 +0.30%) this morning is up +36 cents (+0.34%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.13%) is up +0.0015 (+0.05%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower with Aug crude at a 2-week low and Aug gasoline at a 1-1/2 week low. Bearish factors included (1) increased OPEC output as Bloomberg data showed that OPEC Jun crude production rose +278,000 bpd to 30.223 million bpd, a 4-month high, and (2) reduced concern that sectarian violence in Iraq will spread to the southern part of the country where three-quarters of the country's oil production is located. Closes: CLQ4 -0.37 (-0.35%) RBQ4 -0.0309 (-1.01%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/01/2014
|US||0945 ET||Revised Jun Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 57.5, prelim-Jun +1.1 to 57.5.|
|1000 ET||Jun ISM manufacturing index expected +0.5 to 55.9, May +0.5 to 55.4. Jun ISM employment, May -1.9 to 52.8. Jun ISM new orders, May +1.8 to 56.9. Jun ISM prices paid expected unch at 60.0, May +3.5 to 60.0.|
|1000 ET||May construction spending expected +0.5% m/m, Apr +0.2% m/m.|
|n/a||Jun total vehicle sales expected 16.38 million, May 16.70 million. Jun domestic vehicle sales expected 13.00 million, May 13.11 million.|
|JPN||0100 ET||Japan Jun vehicle sales, May -5.6% y/y.|
|GER||0355 ET||German Jun unemployment change expected -10,000, May +24,000. Jun unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%.|
|0355 ET||Revised German Jun Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous 52.4.|
|EUR||0400 ET||Revised Eurozone Jun Markit manufacturing PMI, previous 51.9.|
|0500 ET||Eurozone May unemployment rate expected unch at 11.7%.|
|UK||0430 ET||UK Jun Markit PMI manufacturing expected -0.5 to 56.5, May 57.0.|
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/01/2014
|Company Name||Ticker||Time||Event Description||Period||Estimate|
|Acuity Brands Inc||AYI US||Bef-mkt||Q3 2014 Earnings Release||Q3 2014||1.124|
|Ford Motor Co||F US||9:30||June 2014 Sales and Revenue Release||2014|
|Hormel Foods Corp||HRL US||9:30||Acquisition of CytoSport Holdings, Inc by Hormel Foods Corporation Call|
|Ford Motor Co||F US||10:00||June 2014 Sales and Revenue Call||2014|
|Acuity Brands Inc||AYI US||10:00||Q3 2014 Earnings Call||Q3 2014|
|Paychex Inc||PAYX US||Aft-mkt||Q4 2014 Earnings Release||Q4 2014||0.395|
|Marvell Technology Group Ltd||MRVL US||19:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|