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BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/25

|Includes:ABBV, AEP, AMZN, AON, AVY, DTE Energy Company (DTE), LEG, LYB, MCO, MDT, SBUX, SCHW, SWK, SWY, TYC, V, XRX

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, July 25th, 2014

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.15%) this morning are mildly lower by -0.20% due to a -0.40% sell-off in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a Russian rate hike and a -1.5% in the Russian Micex index, and some high profile earnings misses such as Amazon.com. Asian stocks today closed mixed: Japan +1.13%, Hong Kong +0.31%, China +1.05%, Taiwan -0.93%, Australia -0.08%, Singapore -0.11%, South Korea +0.29%, India -0.55%, Turkey -0.34%. Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.04%) this morning are down 1 tick. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) is slightly higher by +0.08% while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.11% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.06%.

Commodity prices are slightly higher by +0.06% this morning. Sep WTI crude oil (CLU14 -0.14%) is slightly lower by -0.04% but Sep gasoline (RBU14 +0.22%) is up +0.15%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.34%) is up +0.32%, Sep silver (SIU14 +0.37%) is up +0.47%, and Sep copper (HGU14 +0.08%) is up +0.18%. Grain, livestock, and softs prices are mixed.

Russian's central bank today unexpectedly raised its 1-week auction rate by 50 bp to 8.00% from 7.50%, the third such rate hike this year. The rate hike will cause further damage to the Russian economy, which is likely to see at least a mild recession. The Russian central bank billed the rate hike as designed to curb inflation, but it was designed as much to support the ruble and prevent a further capital outflow from Russia in response to the Ukraine and new sanctions. The Russian Micex stock index this morning is down -1.5%, erasing nearly all of the +1.8% recovery seen in the last 3 sessions. The U.S. yesterday said that Russia has been firing artillery across the border into Ukraine at Ukrainian military targets.

UK Q2 GDP rose by +0.8% q/q (+3.2% annualized), which was in line with market expectations and matched the Q1 growth rate. Q2 GDP was up +3.1% y/y. The report caused UK GDP to finally exceed the previous peak reached before the 2008 global financial crisis. GDP for all the G-7 countries has now exceeded their pre-crisis peaks except for Italy. The market consensus is that the UK economy in 2014 will grow by +3.0%, improving from +0.3% in 2012 and +1.75 in 2013 and the strongest growth rate since 2007.

Amazon is sharply lower by -10% in overnight trading after reporting a larger loss than expected.

The German Aug GfK consumer confidence index rose by +0.1 point to 9.0, which was slightly better than market expectations of unchanged at 8.9.

The German IFO business climate index fell by -1.7 points to 108.0 from 109.7 in June, which was weaker than market expectations for a -0.3 point drop to 109.4 and was the third drop in a row. The July IFO Expectations index fell by -1.4 points to 103.4, which was weaker than market expectations of -0.4 to 104.4. The report suggested that German business confidence is dropping in response to weaker German economic data and the Ukraine crisis.

Eurozone July M3 money supply rose by +1.5% y/y from +1.0% in May, which was stronger than market expectations of +1.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today's June durable goods orders report is expected to show an increase of +0.5% and +0.5% ex-transportation. There are 11 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Moody's (consensus $1.02), Aon (1.20), AbbVie (0.76), DTE Energy (0.75). There are no equity conferences today.

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are mildly lower by -4.00 points (-0.20%) due to the -0.40% sell-off in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a weak German IFO report, and a sharp sell-off in Amazon.com. The S&P 500 index on Thursday posted a new record high but then fell back to close little changed: S&P 500 +0.05%, Dow Jones -0.02%, Nasdaq -0.04%. Bullish factors included (1) strong Chinese, German, and Eurozone PMI reports, (2) ongoing optimism about Q2 earnings, and (3) the -19,000 decline in U.S. initial unemployment claims to a new 8-1/4 year low. Bearish factors included (1) the much weaker-than-expected U.S. June new home sales report and the -1.0 point decline to 56.3 in the U.S. July Markit PMI index, and (2) continued uncertainty about the extent of new sanctions against Russia.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

  • All but one of the nine S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings this morning beat the consensus. The loser was DTE Energy (DTE +0.90%) ($0.73 vs $0.75 consensus). Notable companies that beat earnings today include: Stanley Black & Decker (SWK -1.56%) (1.43 vs 1.36), Tyco (TYC -0.24%) (0.54 vs 0.536), Aon (AON -0.12%) (1.25 vs 1.20), AEP (AEP +0.07%) (0.80 vs 0.75), Moody's (MCO +0.95%) (1.12 vs 1.02), and Xerox (XRX +0.47%) (0.27 vs 0.26).
  • Amazon.com (AMZN +0.13%) fell sharply by 10% late yesterday after reporting Q2 EPS of -27 cents, much worse than the consensus of -15 cents as management spent more money than expected building new services.
  • Visa (V +0.70%) late yesterday reported fiscal Q3 EPS of $2.17, better than the consensus of $2.10, although the stock fell -3% in late-afternoon trading.
  • Starbucks (SBUX +1.66%) late yesterday reported fiscal Q3 EPS of 67 cents, slightly better than the 66 cent consensus.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down 1 tick. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed with fairly sharp losses on (1) the sharp drop in initial unemployment claims to an 8-1/4 year low as the improvement in the U.S. labor market may bring forward the Fed's first rate hike, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand as global stocks remained generally strong despite the various geopolitical hot spots. Closes: TYU4 -12, FVU4 -7.75.

The dollar index this morning is slightly higher by +0.07 (+0.08%) while EUR/USD is down -0.0015 (-0.11%) and USD/JPY is up +0.06 (+0.06%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed little changed in response to mixed U.S. economic data. EUR/USD closed little changed but remained on the defensive on concern that the Ukraine-Russia crisis may yet undercut the European economy. Closes: Dollar index +0.04 (+0.05%), EUR/USD unchanged, USD/JPY +0.34 (+0.34%).

Sep WTI crude oil this morning is down -0.04 (-0.04%) and Sep gasoline is up +0.0041 (+0.15%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLU4 -1.05 (-1.02%), RBU4 -0.0258 (-0.91%). Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from Wed's EIA report that showed a sharp +3.38 million rise in gasoline inventories, and (2) ongoing worries about world crude oil supplies as Libya starts to export crude oil again after a government agreement with rebels.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/25/2014

US 0830 ET Jun durable goods orders expected +0.5% and +0.5% ex-transportation, May -0.9% and unch ex-transportation. June non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft expected +0.5%, May +0.7%.
  1500 ET USDA Jun Cattle on Feed.
GER 0200 ET German Aug GfK consumer confidence expected unch at 8.9.
  0400 ET German Jul IFO business climate expected -0.3 to 109.4, Jun 109.7. Jul IFO current assessment expected -0.3 to 114.5, Jun 114.8. Jul IFO expectations expected -0.4 to 104.4, Jun 104.8.
EUR 0400 ET Eurozone Jun M3 money supply expected +1.2% y/y and +1.0% 3-mo avg y/y, May +1.0% y/y and +0.9% 3-mo avg y/y.
UK 0430 ET UK Q2 GDP expected +0.8% q/q and +3.1% y/y, Q1 +0.8% q/q and +3.0% y/y.
  0430 ET UK May index of services expected +0.2% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo, Apr +0.3% m/m and +0.9% 3-mo/3-mo.
Click to enlarge

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/25/2014

Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Aon PLC AON US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.201
LyondellBasell Industries NV LYB US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.921
AbbVie Inc ABBV US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.759
DTE Energy Co DTE US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.754
Stanley Black & Decker Inc SWK US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.364
Moody's Corp MCO US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.017
Tyco International Ltd TYC US Bef-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.536
Xerox Corp XRX US 7:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.261
Stanley Black & Decker Inc SWK US 8:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Tyco International Ltd TYC US 8:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
Aon PLC AON US 8:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Avery Dennison Corp AVY US 8:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.794
Covidien PLC COV US 8:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014  
American Electric Power Co Inc AEP US 9:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
AbbVie Inc ABBV US 9:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
DTE Energy Co DTE US 9:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Leggett & Platt Inc LEG US 9:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Xerox Corp XRX US 10:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Principal Financial Group Inc PFG US 10:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
LyondellBasell Industries NV LYB US 11:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Charles Schwab Corp/The SCHW US 11:30 Business Update Call    
Moody's Corp MCO US 11:30 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Avery Dennison Corp AVY US 12:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014  
Safeway Inc SWY US 16:30 Annual General Meeting - M&A Vote Y 2014  
American Electric Power Co Inc AEP US   Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.754
Covidien PLC COV US   Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 1.006
Click to enlarge
Stocks: DTE, SWK, TYC, AON, AEP, MCO, XRX, AMZN, V, SBUX, LYB, ABBV, AVY, MDT, LEG, SCHW, SWY