Tuesday, November 17th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.31%) are up +0.35% and European stocks are up +2.20% on speculation the ECB will expand monetary stimulus and offset the expectations of a Fed rate increase. ECB Executive Board member Praet said the ECB may consider adding to stimulus next month because there's a risk of inflation expectations becoming de-anchored. That sent EUR/USD (^EURUSD) down to a 7-month low and bolstered the earnings prospects for European exporters. European stocks also received a boost after the German Nov ZEW survey of expectations of economic growth rose more than expected. U.S. stocks found support on a 3% gain in Wal-Mart and a 2% gain in Home Depot in pre-market trading after both companies reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings results. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +1.22%, Hong Kong +1.15%, China -0.06%, Taiwan +1.50%, Australia +2.29%, Singapore +0.04%, South Korea +1.00%, India +0.41%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.08%) is up +0.10% at a 7-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.26%% at a 7-month low after comments from ECB Executive Board member Praet bolstered the outlook for additional ECB stimulus. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11%.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 -0.12%) are down -4.5 ticks.
ECB Executive Board member Praet said "It's key for the central bank to keep inflation expectations anchored, especially in a period of slack in the economy, and we have some signals that these inflation expectations are still fragile. This is why the Governing Council will discuss whether there is a case for further action as a possible de-anchoring of inflation expectations together with a lot of slack is a dangerous cocktail."
The German Nov ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +8.5 to 10.4, stronger than expectations of +4.1 to 6.0.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct CPI (expected +0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y, Sep -0.2% m/m and unch y/y) and Oct CPI ex food & energy (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Sep +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y), (2) Oct industrial production (expected +0.1% m/m, Sep -0.2% m/m) and Oct manufacturing production (expected +0.2%, Sep -0.1%), and (3) Nov NAHB housing market index (expected unch at 64, Oct +3 to 64).
There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Wal-Mart (consensus $0.98), Home Depot (1.32), TJX (0.85).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Black Hills Corp (BKH).
Equity conferences this week include: UBS Global Technology Conference on Mon-Tue, J.P. Morgans Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Tue, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities: Industry Conference - Oil & Gas Conference - New York on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, Stifel Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Frontier Markets Conference on Wed, Barclays Global Automotive Conference on Wed, Vertical Research Partners Global Materials Conference on Wed, Canaccord Genuity Medical Technology and Diagnostics Forum on Thu, Jefferies Global Health Care Conference on Thu, Scotiabank Canadian Energy Infrastructure Conference on Thu, UBS Industrials and Transportation Conference on Thu-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Wal-Mart (WMT +2.57%) climbed over 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 adusted EPS of 99 cents, better than consensus of 98 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to at least $4.50 a share, up from a previous forecast of $4.40.
Home Depot (HD +0.70%) rose over 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $1.36, better than consensus of $1.32.
Moody's (MCO +1.23%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK +3.93%) slipped nearly 4% in pre-market trading after it was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Sterne Agee.
Berkshire Hathaway reported a new stake in AT&T (T +2.26%) and said it boosted its stakes in Phillips 66 (PSX +2.23%) , Charter Communications (CHTR -0.42%) , Suncor Energy (SU +3.53%) and General Motors (GM +2.51%) and cut its stake in Goldman Sachs (GS +0.93%), Wal-Mart (WMT+2.57%) , Deere (DE +0.08%) , Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI +0.05%) and WABCO Holdings (WBC -0.35%) .
Barron's said on its website that Eli Lilly (LLY +2.11%) can keep rallying into next year given its promising pipeline of new products.
Nuance (NUAN +2.96%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 41 cents, higher than consensus of 35 cents.
Agilent Technologies (A +1.52%) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 EPS to $1.85-$1.91 from a previous estimate of $1.97.
Urban Outfitters (URBN -7.43%) dropped nearly 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 42 cents, right on consensus, but said Q3 comparable same-store sales were up +1.0%, weaker than expectations of +3.4%
Casey's General Store (CASY +1.87%) reported October same-store-sales for prepared food and fountain were up +10.5% and October comparable sales for grocery and other were up +7.3%.
Matthews International (MATW +0.25%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 93 cents, higher than consensus of 89 cents, but reported Q4 revenue of $368.3 million, below consensus of $389.0 million.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.31%) this morning are up +7.25 points (+0.35%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +1.49%, Dow Jones +1.38%, Nasdaq +1.41%. The S&P 500 on Monday recovered from a 3-week low and closed sharply higher on a rally in energy producers after crude oil rebounded from a 2-1/2 month low and closed higher and on increased M&A activity after Marriott International agreed to buy Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide for $12.2 billion. Stocks were undercut early by Friday's terrorist attacks in Paris and the +0.62 point increase in the Nov Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions to -10.74, weaker than expectations of +4.86 to -6.50.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 -0.12%) this morning are down -4.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYZ5 +4.50, FVZ5 +3.50. Dec T-notes on Monday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher on increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Friday's terrorist attacks in Paris and on the weaker-than-expected Nov Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions. T-notes fell back from early highs as stocks recovered.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.08%) this morning is up +0.096 (+0.10%) at a 7-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0028 (-0.26%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13 (+0.11%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.444 (+0.45%), EUR/USD -0.0087 (-0.81%), USD/JPY +0.57 (+0.46%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher on weakness in EUR/USD on concern that Friday's terrorist attacks in Paris on Friday may undercut Eurozone consumer confidence and economic growth and prompt the ECB to expand stimulus. Meanwhile the yen saw weakness, boosting USD/JPY, on speculation the BOJ may boost stimulus after Japan Q3 GDP contracted more than expected.
Dec crude oil (CLZ15 -1.56%) this morning is down -50 cents (-1.20%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ15 -0.78%) is down -0.0065 (-0.52%). Monday's closes: CLZ5 +1.00 (+2.45%), RBZ5 +0.0091 (+0.73%). Dec crude recovered from a 2-1/2 month low and Dec gasoline recovered from a 6-3/4 year nearest-futures low and closed higher on bullish factors that included (1) increased geopolitical risks after France stepped up its bombing of ISIS targets in Syria following Friday's terrorist attacks in Paris, and (2) the rally in European and U.S. stocks.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/17/2015
| US | 0830 ET | Oct CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y, Sep -0.2% m/m and unch y/y. Oct CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Sep +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y. |
| 0915 ET | Oct industrial production expected +0.1% m/m, Sep -0.2% m/m. Oct manufacturing production expected +0.2%, Sep -0.1%. Oct capacity utilization expected unch at 77.5%, Sep -0.3 to 77.5%. | |
| 1000 ET | Nov NAHB housing market index expected unch at 64, Oct +3 to 64. | |
| EUR | 0200 ET | Eurozone Oct new car registrations, Sep +9.8% y/y. |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Oct CPI expected +0.1% m/m and -0.1% y/y, Sep -0.1% m/m and -0.1% y/y. Oct core CPI expected +1.0% y/y, Sep +1.0% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | UK Oct RPI expected +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Sep -0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y. Oct RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +0.9% y/y, Sep +0.9% y/y. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Oct PPI input prices expected +0.2% m/m and -12.0% y/y, Sep +0.6% m/m and -13.3% y/y. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Oct PPI output prices expected -0.1% m/m and -1.4% y/y, Sep -0.1% m/m and -1.8% y/y. Oct PPI output core, Sep +0.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Sep ONS house prices expected +5.4% y/y, Sep +5.2% y/y. | |
| GER | 0500 ET | German Nov ZEW expectations of economic growth expected +4.1 to 6.0, Oct 1.9. Nov ZEW survey current situation expected unch at 55.2. |
| CHI | 2030 ET | China Oct property prices. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/17/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Depot Inc/The | HD US | 6:00 | Q3 2016 Earnings Release | Q3 2016 | 1.319 |
| Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT US | 7:00 | Q3 2016 Earnings Release | Q3 2016 | 0.975 |
| Qorvo Inc | QRVO US | 8:30 | Investor Day | Y 2015 | |
| Home Depot Inc/The | HD US | 9:00 | Q3 2016 Earnings Call | Q3 2016 | |
| Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT US | 9:00 | Q3 2016 Earnings Call | Q3 2016 | |
| TJX Cos Inc/The | TJX US | 9:30 | Q3 2016 Earnings Release | Q3 2016 | 0.845 |
| Apache Corp | APA US | 10:00 | North Sea Region Update Call | ||
| TJX Cos Inc/The | TJX US | 11:00 | Q3 2016 Earnings Call | Q3 2016 | |
| Monsanto Co | MON US | 14:00 | Analyst Meeting - Biennial Investor Event | Y 2015 | |
| Caterpillar Inc | CAT US | 15:00 | Analyst & Investor Meeting | ||
| Citrix Systems Inc | CTXS US | 16:45 | Business Update Call | ||
| Genworth Financial Inc | GNW US | Aft-mkt | Synchrony Financial Replaces Genworth Financial in S&P 500 | ||
| Genworth Financial Inc | GNW US | Aft-mkt | Genworth Financial Replaces Rovi Corp in S&P MidCap 400 | ||
| Electronic Arts Inc | EA US | Electronic Arts Releases Star Wars Battlefront" Video Game in the U.S." |