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MORNING CALL 8/3

Aug. 04, 2016 9:19 AM ETMTFBF, RIG, PRU, XPO, CF, JACK, AVB, SQ, TRIP, GDDY, G, AXGN, PODD, TDOC, BALL, BDX, HSIC, IRM, AME, PWR, WRK, APA, ANDV, VIAB, MRO, SRE, CTRA, AP, FLR
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MORNING CALL

Thursday, August 4th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.29%) are little changed, up +0.06%, and European stocks are up +0.74 after the BOE as expected, cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 bp to a record low 0.25% and expanded its QE program by 60 billion pounds to 435 billion pounds. GBP/USD (^GBPUSD) is down -1.11% as the BOE also cut its UK 2017 GDP forecast to 0.8% from 2.3% and said new stimulus measures can be expanded further if needed. Gains is stocks were limited as a -0.88% drop in crude oil prices (CLU16 -0.42%) undercut energy producing stocks, while a -1.55% fall in copper prices (HGU16 -1.43%) to a 3-week low put pressure on mining stocks. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +1.07%, Hong Kong +0.43%, China +0.13%, Taiwan +0.26%, Australia +0.18%, Singapore +0.15%, South Korea +0.24%, India +0.06%. Chinese stocks found support on a statement from the PBOC that said it plans to keep monetary policy "prudent" this year, while Japan's Nikkei Stock Index recovered from a 3-week low and closed higher as a rally in brokerage and shipping stocks led the overall market higher.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.23%) is up +0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.17%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY)is up +0.09%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.15%) are up +4 ticks.

In a statement released today, the PBOC reiterated it plans to keep monetary policy "prudent" this year and said it will use multiple tools to keep liquidity at reasonably ample levels and maintain reasonable credit growth in the second half of this year.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jul Challenge job cuts (Jun -14.1% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -1,000 to 265,000, previous +14,000 to 266,000) and continuing claims (expected -9,000 to 2.130 million, previous +7,000 to 2.139 million), (3) Jun factory orders (expected -1.9% and-0.2% ex transportation, May -1.0% and +0.1% ex-transportation), (4) USDA weekly Export Sales.

There are 29 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Viacom (consensus $1.01), Church & Dwight (0.79), Duke Energy (1.01), Kellogg (0.91), Priceline (12.67), Consolidated Edison (0.69), Fluor (0.89), Monster Beverage (1.04).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Motif Bio PLC (MTFB).

Equity conferences this week include: Wells Fargo Services Conference on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Transocean Ltd. (RIG +3.98%) gained nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported an unexpected Q2 adjusted EPS profit of 17 cents, higher than consensus of a -2 cent loss.

Prudential Financial (PRU +2.95%) dropped over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 operating EPS of $1.84, well below consensus of $2.50,

XPO Logistics (XPO +0.87%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 42 cents, well above consensus of 22 cents, and then raised its full-year adjusted Ebitda view to at least $1.265 billion from a July 18 view of $1.25 billion.

CF Industries Holdings (CF +0.12%) fell over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 net sales of $1.134 billion, below consensus of $1.139 billion.

Jack in the Box (JACK -0.89%) rallied almost 6% in pre-market trading after it raised guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to $3.65-$3.75 from a May 11 view of $3.50-$3.63.

Albemarle (ALB -0.45%) slid nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted Ebitda of $190.5 million, weaker than consensus of $237.5 million.

Square (SQ +3.88%) jumped over 15% in pre-market trading after it raised its 2016 adjusted Ebitda estimate to $18 million-$24 million from a prior view of $8 million-$14 million.

TripAdvisor (TRIP +0.12%) lost nearly 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 38 cents, below consensus of 42 cents,

GoDaddy (GDDY -3.51%) rose nearly 8% in after-hours trading after it hiked its 2016 revenue estimate to $1.84 billion-$1.847 billion from a May 4 view of $1.83 billion-$1.845 billion.

Avid Technology (AVID +1.21%) climbed 8% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on non-GAAP year revenue to $535 million-$565 million from a prior view of $500 million-$525 million.

Genpact Ltd. (G +0.15%) lost 2% in after-hours trading after it lowered its 2016 revenue estimate to $2.59 billion-$2.62 billion from a May 5 estimate of $2.62 billion-$2.66 billion.

AxoGen (AXGN +7.32%) rallied 10% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q2 loss of -9 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -12 cents.

Insulet (PODD +0.42%) jumped 8% in after-hours trading after it boosted its full-year revenue estimate to $345 million-$355 million from a May 3 view of $330 million-$350 million.

Teladoc (TDOC -1.17%) plunged over 25% in after-hours trading after it said it sees a full-year loss per share between $1.47-$1.52, a wider loss than consensus of -$1.25.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.29%) this morning are up +1.25 points (+0.06%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.31%, Dow Jones +0.23%, Nasdaq +0.32%. The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher on the +179,000 increase in the Jul ADP employment report (stronger than expectations of +170,000) and on the +3.34% rally in crude oil prices, which spurred gains in energy producer stocks. Stocks were undercut by the -1.0 point decline in the U.S. Jul ISM non-manufacturing PMI to 55.5, weaker than expectations of -0.6 to 55.9.

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU16 +0.15%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYU6 +1.00, FVU6 +1.00. Sep T-notes on Wednesday closed little changed. T-notes were undercut by signs of strength in the U.S. labor market after the Jun ADP employment rose +179,000, more than expectations of +170,000. T-notes found support from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari's comment that "when I look at the data I don't see much inflationary pressure" and from the larger-than-expected decline in the U.S. Jul ISM non-manufacturing index.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.23%) this morning is up +0.142 (+0.15%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0019 (-0.17%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.09 (+0.09%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar index +0.482 (+0.51%), EUR/USD -0.0075 (-0.67%), USD/JPY +0.35 (+0.35%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on the larger-than-expected increase in the U.S. Jul ADP employment, (+179,000 vs. expectations of +170,000) and weakness in EUR/USD after Eurozone Jun retail sales rose +1.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.8% y/y.

Sep WTI crude oil (CLU16 -0.42%) this morning is down -36 cents (-0.88%) and Sep gasoline (RBU16 -1.47%) is down -0.0221 (-1.64%). Wednesday's closes: CLU6 +1.32 (+3.34%), RBU6 +0.0383 (+2.92%). Sep crude and gasoline on Wednesday closed higher as Sep crude recovered from a 3-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices were boosted by the -0.6% drop in U.S. crude production in the week ended Jul 29, the first decline in 4 weeks, and the -3.262 million bbl decline in EIA gasoline inventories, more than expectations of -650,000 bbl. Crude oil prices were undercut by the stronger dollar and by the unexpected +1.413 million bbl increase in EIA crude supplies (vs expectations of a -1.75 million bbl).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/04/2016

Thursday, Aug 4
US 0730 ET Jul Challenge job cuts, Jun -14.1% y/y.
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -1,000 to 265,000, previous +14,000 to 266,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -9,000 to 2.130 million, previous +7,000 to 2.139 million.
0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ET Jun factory orders expected -1.9% and -0.2% ex transportation, May -1.0% and +0.1% ex-transportation.
Friday, Aug 5
US 0830 ET Jul non-farm payrolls expected +180,000, Jun +287,000. Jul private payrolls expected +170,000, Jun +265,000. Jul manufacturing payrolls expected +4,000, Jun +14,000. Jul unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 4.8%, Jun +0.2 to 4.9%.
0830 ET Jul avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Jun +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Jul avg weekly hours all employees expected unch at 34.4 hours, Jun unch at 34.4 hours.
0830 ET Jun trade balance expected -$43.0 billion, May -$41.1 billion.
1400 ET Jun consumer credit expected +16.0 billion, May +$18.558 billion.
JPN 0100 ET Japan Jun leading index CI expected unch at 99.7, May -0.3 to 99.7. Jun coincident index expected +1.3 to 111.2, May -2.1 to 109.9.
GER 0200 ET German Jun factory orders expected +0.5% m/m and -1.5% y/y, May unch m/m and -0.2% y/y.
UK 0330 ET UK Jul Halifax house prices expected -0.2% m/m and +8.8% 3-mo/y/y, Jun +1.3% m/m and +8.4% 3-mo/y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/04/2016

Company Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Ball Corp BLL US Bef-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.991
Becton Dickinson and Co BDX US Bef-mkt Q3 2016 Earnings Release Q3 2016 2.203
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN US Bef-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 2.617
Chesapeake Energy Corp CHK US Bef-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 -0.107
Henry Schein Inc HSIC US Bef-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 1.627
Iron Mountain Inc IRM US Bef-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.523
AMETEK Inc AME US Bef-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.589
Quanta Services Inc PWR US Bef-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.356
WestRock Co WRK US 6:45 Q3 2016 Earnings Release Q3 2016 0.663
Apache Corp APA US 7:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 -0.141
Church & Dwight Co Inc CHD US 7:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.794
Duke Energy Corp DUK US 7:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 1.009
Fastenal Co FAST US 7:00 July 2016 Sales and Revenue Release 2016
L Brands Inc LB US 7:30 July 2016 Sales and Revenue Call - Pre-Recorded 2016
Parker-Hannifin Corp PH US 7:30 Q4 2016 Earnings Release Q4 2016 1.765
Becton Dickinson and Co BDX US 8:00 Q3 2016 Earnings Call Q3 2016
Harman International Industries Inc HAR US 8:00 Q4 2016 Earnings Release Q4 2016 1.52
Kellogg Co K US 8:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.908
MetLife Inc MET US 8:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Michael Kors Holdings Ltd KORS US 8:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2016
Tesoro Corp TSO US 8:30 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN US 8:30 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Iron Mountain Inc IRM US 8:30 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
AMETEK Inc AME US 8:30 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Viacom Inc VIAB US 8:30 Q3 2016 Earnings Call C2 2016
TripAdvisor Inc TRIP US 8:30 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
WestRock Co WRK US 8:30 Q3 2016 Earnings Call Q3 2016
Marathon Oil Corp MRO US 9:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Chesapeake Energy Corp CHK US 9:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Allstate Corp/The ALL US 9:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Transocean Ltd RIG US 9:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Albemarle Corp ALB US 9:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Quanta Services Inc PWR US 9:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Sempra Energy SRE US 9:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.971
CF Industries Holdings Inc CF US 9:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
American Water Works Co Inc AWK US 9:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Kellogg Co K US 9:30 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Church & Dwight Co Inc CHD US 10:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Duke Energy Corp DUK US 10:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Lincoln National Corp LNC US 10:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Henry Schein Inc HSIC US 10:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Ball Corp BLL US 11:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Harman International Industries Inc HAR US 11:00 Q4 2016 Earnings Call Q4 2016
Parker-Hannifin Corp PH US 11:00 Q4 2016 Earnings Call Q4 2016
Prudential Financial Inc PRU US 11:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Cimarex Energy Co XEC US 11:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Sempra Energy SRE US 12:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Progressive Corp/The PGR US 13:00 Investor Relations Conference Call
Apache Corp APA US 14:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Symantec Corp SYMC US 16:00 Q1 2017 Earnings Release Q1 2017 0.248
Priceline Group Inc/The PCLN US 16:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 12.671
Activision Blizzard Inc ATVI US 16:30 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Priceline Group Inc/The PCLN US 16:30 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Kraft Heinz Co/The KHC US 16:30 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
PerkinElmer Inc PKI US 17:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Motorola Solutions Inc MSI US 17:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Symantec Corp SYMC US 17:00 Q1 2017 Earnings Call Q1 2017
Monster Beverage Corp MNST US 17:00 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
Consolidated Edison Inc ED US Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.693
PerkinElmer Inc PKI US Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.658
EOG Resources Inc EOG US Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 -0.486
Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT US Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 1.409
Motorola Solutions Inc MSI US Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.86
Activision Blizzard Inc ATVI US Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.426
Fluor Corp FLR US Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.886
Kraft Heinz Co/The KHC US Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.711
Monster Beverage Corp MNST US Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 1.038
Fluor Corp FLR US 17:30 Q2 2016 Earnings Call Q2 2016
L Brands Inc LB US July 2016 Sales and Revenue Release 2016
Mohawk Industries Inc MHK US Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 3.369
Viacom Inc VIAB US Q3 2016 Earnings Release

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