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Jasper M
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Retired, 48, been making my own financial decision since I was 17. Every day, for the rest of my life, I will be a recovering Merrill Lynch customer. Proudest Financial Moments: Personal Best return on equity: 20/1, Leap Puts on Citi & GE, closed in late 2008 Personal best adjusted for time:... More
  • Predictions, old and new 0 comments
    Dec 27, 2011 10:25 PM | about stocks: UUP, FXE, GLD, SLV, USO, HYD

     That time of year again. Let's see how I did.

    Frim  my predictions for 2011:
        "$US up. A Lot."
    No, but getting there.
       "Euro down. A Lot ." 
    Yes, sort of. Clearly still has Way farther to go.

        "Hard leg down in stocks, starting soon."
    Nope.
       "As in 2008, the financials will bear the initial brunt."
    They're actually getting killed already, so I'll call that part correct.
        "We can expect to see the first stages of the death of most of the larger banks by the end of 2011."
    Yup.
        "Holiday inflation will recede rapidly."
    Sort of. But it's back now.
        "Collapsing markets for stocks and bonds will erase 2 trillion in money supply next year, far outpacing what the Fed can conjure."
    While marlets have not dropped as far as I thought they would by now, I recently read the loss is already over $6 Trillion. So… yeah. 
        "Stocks will end the year at least approaching the 2008 low."
    Nope.

         "Here's one that's out on a limb: I think gold and silver stop here."
    Nope, and no. Gold went to new highs, silver went out and back.
        "I think oil tops here, too."
    Nope.

        "Munis down. A Lot."
    Nope, not yet.
       "Real estate, housing and commercial, continues to die."
    Yes, though not near as dramatically as I expected.

         International diversification will be shown to be mostly useless, as deflation sucks cash, and thus the profit, out of every economy on earth.
    Yes.
        "One possible exception: India."
    Still up in the air.
        "China, in particular, hits a wall. And bursts into flames."
    It's taken All Year, but the recent default of the larger provincial issuers is the beggining of this, in earnest.
       I predict the Calafia Beach Pundit will be optimistic. And very, very funny (in a guilty, "don't make fun of the retard" sort of way). 
    Yes!
       I predict Bruce Krasting (bless his heart) will get all excited about something he hasn't thought all the way through. 
    Yes.

    So, summing up, my crystal ball seems to have been ccloudy; mostly misses and sortas.

         So, what about 2012?
       Well, everything seems to be pretty much as it was, just held in check by government and proxy interventions that are clearly nearing exhaustion. So most of these I will just reiterate.
    $US up. I will say 91 on Dollar Index.
    Euro down.
    Stocks down.
    Financials worse than most.
    Downside target reset to 4000 on the DJIA, near the end of the year.
    Gold down.
    Silver down more.
    Oil down (the Iranians can't keep this up forever… ironically, because they don't have enough fuel [*snicker*])
    Munipocalypse.
    Real estate disaster.
    No safe place overseas.
    India . . . um, not so sure. What the heck, I'll stay long (I am IRL).
    (Economic) death of China.
    CPB funny.
    BK excited.


    Stocks: UUP, FXE, GLD, SLV, USO, HYD
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