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Steve Birenberg, CFA
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Steve Birenberg is founder and President of Northlake Capital Management, LLC. Northlake specializes in managing portfolios for high net worth individuals using a unique strategy combining monthly ETF rotation based on major market themes supplemented by carefully selected media and telecom... More
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Northlake Capital Management, LLC
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Media Talk
  • Mobile Data Explosion 0 comments
    Apr 14, 2009 10:12 AM | about stocks: T, VZ, CSCO, AAPL, BBRY

     

    SNL Kagan (http://www2.snl.com/media_comm/) has an article out today discussing the potential upgrade to 4G wireless networks.  The article quotes a recent forecast (http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.html) from Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) with some astonishing statistics:

    • Global mobile traffic will exceed two exabytes/month by 2013 (An exabyte is equal to: 1 billion gigabytes; 1,000 petabytes; 250 million DVDs);
    • Global mobile traffic will increase 66-fold in five years;
    • Nearly 64% of the world's mobile traffic will be video by 2013;
    • Mobile video will grow at a CAGR of 150% between 2008 and 2013;
    • Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop air or data cards will constitute more than 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013;
    • Latin America will have the strongest mobile growth at a 166% CAGR, followed by the Asia Pacific region at 146%; and
    •Asia Pacific will account for one-third of all mobile data traffic by 2013.

    Despite competion and slowing wireless subscriber growth I think AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) are winners as the upgrade path will consume capital gradually and data ARPU will offset voice pressures.  If cable companies can charge for ad-ons like digital cable, HD, and DVRs, telcos should be able to charge for incremental data consumption. 

    Obviously, the trend toward data is great for smartphone providers.  Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Research in Motion (RIMM) remain in the driver's seat as a rising tide of penetration lifts all boats.

    CSCO, T, and VZ are held in Northlake client accounts including my personal accounts.

     

    Themes: telecom, smartphones, wireless Stocks: T, VZ, CSCO, AAPL, BBRY
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