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K202 is now back to just the original author again, Mark Bern. Mark is both a CPA and a CFA charter holder. He has a bachelors degree in Business Admin. with a concentration in Economics. His experience includes both private and public sector and careers in accounting, financial and market... More
  • OG's Quick Chat # 107 - 10/12/2010 157 comments
    Oct 12, 2010 2:13 PM | about stocks: SPY
    OG has asked me to take over responsibility for the Quick Chats so that she can sort out some personal things.  OG will be back with us soon after her hiatus.. At that time she will resume posting QC Instablogs.  Until then, I will be your host.  Please be respectful and enjoy the liberty of this space.

    List of stocks mentioned in QC # 106:

    (AAPL), (AGQ), (AIG), (AMZN), (AOB), (ATPG), (AXPW), (BAC), (BP), (BPMSF.PK), (CAAS), (CAGC), (CBLI), (CELM), (CFSG), (CLDX), (CPST), (CSTR), (DGP), (DXY), (EGI), (FEEDI), (FRMSF.PK), (GE), (GELYF.PK), (GOOG), (GPRLF.PK), (GWMGF.PK). (HPJ), (IMGN), (KGILF.PK), (LPH),  (MBTF)), (MCP), (MOS), (NFLX), (QID), (RHHBY.PK), (SLW), (SPX), (SPY), (STP), (UUP), (WATG), (XIDE)
    Stocks: SPY
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  •  
    The last comment posted on QC # 106 was by Tripleblack:


    Ha. Turns out we lost a few more jobs in addition to the millions the BLS bases its numbers upon.

    366,000 more.

    In the past year.

    (Gulp).

    [quote] As bad as job losses were during the recession, we're about to find out that things were even worse.

    The government currently estimates that 2.2 million jobs were lost from April of 2009 through March of this year, a significant portion of the 7.8 million jobs lost since the start of 2008.

    But in a little-noticed note at the bottom of September's jobs report, the Labor Department said it now appears there were 366,000 additional jobs lost during the 12 months that ended in March, a revision that is not yet included in the official numbers.

    That revision isn't as bad as last year's -- when the Labor Department said that an additional 902,000 jobs were lost. But it is still the second largest downward adjustment in nearly 20 years.

    The final revision won't be announced until February, but the Labor Department gives a preview in early October of what it is expecting.

    This year's large revision is a sign of the difficulty the Labor Department has estimating the number of jobs lost and created during the severe economic upheaval of recent years.

    "Around turning points, the revisions tend to be larger," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute. "At the bottom of the cycle, they tend to underestimate the job losses."

    The government's closely followed monthly jobs report is based primarily on a survey of employers. But the Labor Department has trouble estimating employees at newly opened businesses, as well as figuring out how many jobs were lost at businesses that close. So it uses a model for that part of the estimate.

    During the 12-month period that ended in March, that so-called birth-death adjustment added 336,000 jobs to overall total payrolls.

    The birth death adjustment also resulted in an estimated 682,000 additional jobs in the six months since March, although unlike the widely-reported monthly job readings, that gain is not seasonally adjusted. Still it is significant, accounting for more then 40% of the job gains reported since the spring.

    "The birth-death model isn't working," said Robert Brusca of FAO Economics. "As businesses are having trouble getting credit, it's not surprising". [quote]

    So, they admit to 366,000 "oopsies" for the year, and there is another 682,000 "indicated" job growth which, since we all know the government statistical models would never lie to us, MUST really be there...

    Looks like over a million jobs to toss on the charnel heap.

    Its like one of those really bad slasher/horror movie...

    Just when our heroine thinks she's managed to escape the villain, it turns out that the locked door is just so much smoke, and out pops his claw lined with gleaming razors!
    12 Oct 2010, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Anybody noticing the big PV Solar push on CNBC today? I guess the masters have decided that they're going to make winners out of a non-competitive, on price, yet technology. I presume this means more taxpayer funded subsidies to accomplish the agenda. And the beneficiaries will be ... China!

    Wow! I didn't see that one coming, did you?

    I like solar, but I want to see it stand on its own, as I wish all would do.

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2010, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  •  
    All part of the yuan negotiation, heating up in the background.

    The Regime needs a political win out of the fiat currency battles.

    I suspect they LIKE the yen getting jacked to the sky, but they still need to make it appear that they are "winning" something from the Chinese to keep their union allies happy.

    Its funny, really.

    If the dollar drops in value 10% vs the yuan is that any different from the Chinese announcing they are devaluing the yuan 10%?

    In the real world, no. Particularly with the new, "flexible" pen on the yuan. If the dollar starts to appreciate again, they will just "flex" the yuan to where they want it.

    In the poliitcal world, oh, yes.

    This currency flap regarding the dollar being over-priced vs the yuan is solving itself, but NOT in a politically valuable manner for the Regime.
    12 Oct 2010, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I saw it and snickered ( the solar segment on CNBC). I especially loved when the CEO said he isn't going to comment on American politics and funding to make solar less prohibitively expensive-- it is "only" 7x more expensive than natural gas. No, he won't comment on that, but his hands are out for any and all benefits he can muster while feeding at the trough of the U.S. taxpayer.
    12 Oct 2010, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  •  
    7x more expensive, so like a cab is to a bus or a limo is to a cab? When I eat out, I only eat at places that are just 7 times more expensive than pizza hut. Oh look, that flat screen is only 7 times more expensive then this one. I'm getting the hang of this.
    12 Oct 2010, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. Interesting little company (BONL) and I agree that is quite a handsome dividend. Information on the company is sketchy and it's thinly traded. Do you think it may be a M&A target for Johnson Controls (JCI)? I opened a small position in it as I'm still sitting pretty much on the side lines. Thanks.
    12 Oct 2010, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  •  
    It's up 156%! Did your purchase upset the balance of nature? LOL!
    Well, QE2 is a ship about to sail:
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    12 Oct 2010, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "QE2 ... ship about to sail"?

    I always thought it was "sh*t that floats". Oh! Yeah, that's the ticket. We'll call it QE2! (Thanks to "Compulsive Liar" on SNL, now workiong for the U.S. Government and The Fed and the ...)

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2010, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Not I said the war horse. Perhaps that Maya king is making trades here. LOL.
    12 Oct 2010, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  •  
    new REE article on SA: An Interview with.....drumroll......

    By Brian Sylvester

    It's possible that no one knows the REEs market and its fundamentals better than Newsletter Writer John Kaiser, and he tells the rare earths story with refreshing honesty. "Anybody that in the interim needs rare earths for their products is being encouraged to setup manufacturing shops in China so that they don't have supply disruptions. Of course, that's not going over very well because that's extortion," John explains. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John sheds some light on the supply-side dearth of REEs and discusses some REEs projects that are and are not ready to step into the breach.


    Personally, I've never heard of the guy, but the article is fairly decent as a standalone. But it has nowhere near the scope of our discussions nor does it cover many stocks.
    12 Oct 2010, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Kaiser is one of those who quotes the Chinese party line. Note his response to the questions about why China is creating an REE cartel:

    "Emissions".

    LOL, riiiiiiiiight.

    But then he gets into the underlying story:

    [quote]Yes, but it's also sort of the so-called neoliberal policy of the last 30 years where you allow capital to go to the lowest cost jurisdiction; the one willing to endure the greatest sacrifices in terms of wages, working conditions and environmental impact. China has literally prostituted itself in this regard while thinking: "If I do this now I will have them by the you-know-whats down the road."
    [quote]

    Its those "Yes, but...." answers that are always interesting.

    Most of the REE industry are so accustomed to walking soft around the Chinese (where, after all, 97% of the mining and refining occurs), its become instinctive.

    I like Kaiser's take, though, he's less a Chinese koolaid drinker than most.
    12 Oct 2010, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  •  
    HDY is moving as is CNOA.

    CAGC's double bottom has some work left but CGA looks to continue its upward thrust.
    12 Oct 2010, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I made an attempt at doing a bunch of thumbs Up over the weekend but gave up after only 3 QC's.

    I found I was reading every comment instead of just scroll and checking them. Takes tooo looong.
    12 Oct 2010, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  •  
    LOL, been there, done that.

    Its amazing how much data flows through here in such a brief span.
    12 Oct 2010, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  •  
    OE: I gave up after 9 QCs, because I realized I was watching a no-hitter being pitched. One of Freya's old favs (HERO), got some time on CNBC today. HERO has bounced over 11%. Have to look into this.

    ATPG continues soaring, up almost 10%.

    ####

    For 30 years we've been hearing all about the Great Solar Saviour.................. (long elipse).
    12 Oct 2010, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Well the sun will still be hear for another billion years, so give it time. Some technologies start slower than others. In a couple hundred million years, you are going to look pretty foolish for not getting in on the ground floor. Just sayin'...
    12 Oct 2010, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Are you inferring that I'm going to live for another another couple hundred million years?
    12 Oct 2010, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Don't get too excited. Those are REGIME "years". Like the 8 million new jobs that just popped into our economy from things like alternative technology investments...

    Quite a steep parsing divisor is involved, let's see, that would be...

    About 20 years, earth time.
    12 Oct 2010, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Curses, you've deciphered the math! On the bright side "hundreds of millions of jobs" will be created by this new industry, which comes out to.... oh.. 20 jobs.
    12 Oct 2010, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Maybe....

    Although Spain discovered that there was a negative correlation: For every 4 "green" jobs they created, their economy shed 9.

    And that was BEFORE the meltdown.

    Spain worked their way down into membership in the PHIIGS the hard way, long before the Great Recession hit.

    Nothing like emulating a losing strategy.
    12 Oct 2010, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Great Panther's 3rd quarter production (GPRLF.PK):
    www.greatpanther.com/s...
    12 Oct 2010, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Another Chinese company I track soared today, China Technology Development Corp. (CTDC), up 37.73%!
    12 Oct 2010, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Are they developing the REE manufacturing shops for Chinas trading partners or something? 37.73% in one day!! On what news could that be?

    Oh yea, China.
    12 Oct 2010, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Team Obama lifted it's moratorium on drilling in the GOM today clearing the way for new exploration and development but only if you comply with the new improved safety regulations and pay the new fees that no one has seen yet out side of DOE. I wonder if the wholesale resignations at DOE have any thing to do with this? Nah just my imagination. Next I'll be wondering if this timing has any thing to do with the upcoming election?
    12 Oct 2010, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Did the jacuzzi just become a rabbit hole?
    12 Oct 2010, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Silentz: Greetings. Nah, I just dropped my rose colored glasses and tin foil hat in to the water and can't find them cuz of the gold dust and green mud shoots. Not to worry though those filters TB put in will catch them before long and it will be off to the races. You did hear that the recession is over to didn't you?
    12 Oct 2010, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Want to share with you pals some of my recent bets; the ones with decent returns, which, I believe still have some upside:

    (ATPG) Re-entered my old favorite on 9/26. Shares are up over 26%. Today, ATPG announced a $1.5B note, with an 11.75% yield, due in 2015. GE just may buy them out.

    (AXPW) Bought some back when I was in Honduras. Added more on 8/24; those shares are up 36.64%. This stock is going to go crazy it they land a Ford or BMW contract.

    (LPH) September 14th, I bought some shares; up 41.25% since.

    (MCP) Simply staggering! But I think this stock is going to pull back some. However, in my brokerage account I bought some Lynas; those shares are up about 15% in less than a week.

    (NG) Novagold has been insane. 6/29 I bought some shares that are up 25.47%. BA has some shares up almost 50%. In mere months.

    (TGB) Taseko's been a gem, shares purchased on 6/29 are up 35.04%

    (XIDE) Shares purchased on 9/2 are up 26.62%. Watch for their quarterly. Should be impressive.

    All this helps, as I stay in this empty home. Just want to share.
    13 Oct 2010, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Thanks, Maya. Some great picks in there. Up late too, I see.
    13 Oct 2010, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  •  
    DM: The wild part of this night is that I finished a paper sent to me from my Honduran archeologist pal about how the elite enjoyed wearing horned headdresses that emulated, ahh...eehh, a rattlesnake's phallus. Well...phalluses. Rattlesnakes have four of them!

    I'm jealous!
    13 Oct 2010, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I don't know... It took me thirty something years to stop thinking with just the one... Four sounds like it has the capacity for a whole lot of mischief.
    13 Oct 2010, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  •  
    A *very* good summation of a follow-on result of "ClimateGate", with a link to the full text included, in "Letter of resignation written by Harold Lewis, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, to the head of the American Physical Society", posted by tobyw @ Investor Village in this post.

    www.investorvillage.co...

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  •  
    HTL: Greetings. It is difficult for me to understand why any sane scientist (Or other sentient being) would accept or try to defend such an inane concept as preventing global climate change. In any dynamic system change is inevitable and even desirable. Only those charlatans such as The Goricle of TN who wish to profit from this would do so. The author is correct that this is merely a scheme to redistribute wealth from the developed nations to the developing ones at great expense to those developed nation's citizens while enriching the progressives who hatched the plot and their friends.
    13 Oct 2010, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  •  
    (NVAX): Almost +8% today. All chart indicators positive. May be just optuions expiration week, but see the swine flu concentrator for a couple comments.

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm on one heck of a lucky roll. Yesterday I bought 20,000 shares of Axion in my brokerage account, today the stock goes up 16.53%; 10 cents per share.

    Other than (UUP) my whole gamer screen is green. The past two days have easily paid for my next month plus long journey to Honduras. That's very cool! (If this holds, of course.)
    13 Oct 2010, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  •  
    How much longer before you can invite the rest of the Renegades down with you? ;-)
    13 Oct 2010, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Z: I don't know. DM seems to think I'll live another couple hundred million years :-)

    Can't get too excited about this run, though, because it wasn't long ago I took myself to the woodshed by kneejerk selling Great Western for a big loss right after I came home from the last trip.
    13 Oct 2010, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Correction: Axion's now up 21.49%. This kind of "correction" I can take!
    13 Oct 2010, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Check out the article on Aids called ON THE AIDS WAR PATH
    campaign.r20.constantc...
    13 Oct 2010, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. Do you have a line on which publicly traded companies if any may benefit from this? Or do you suppose that the entire line of inquiry will be suppressed because of the $ involved?
    13 Oct 2010, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I don't know, Rob. Do you mean which big pharma? We could probably ask M.E. Garza.
    I posted a new article on Robert's nano technology instablog. It is a treatment for tumors that doesn't require radiation. That's rad!

    Look at this one GS just revised their gold call up another 20% to $1650 for 2011.
    It's is up around $20 today alone. I remember when they said crude $200, while they took short positions at the same time. That would show a stunning decline in the USD and EURO, imo.
    Here's the article: www.mineweb.com/minewe...

    And here is an article that goes further into what One Eye posted regarding Copper, with some excellent links:
    www.mineweb.com/minewe...
    13 Oct 2010, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. I saw the post and the link, which I followed and read the article. Thanks for contributing in the Nano Patch BTW. As I posted there that is truly revolutionary and since much of the active material has been approved by the FDA testing should be some what faster. I will be looking for this process to come to market. Thanks again O.G.
    13 Oct 2010, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Another stock I recently bought is Kandi Technologies (KNDI). This company makes 15% of the world's go carts. But they are launching into the EV business (electrically powered vehicles). The Chinese government is backing this company. Not only are they in the process of building EVs, they also are making the batteries, and, most importantly, the Chinese government is subsidizing Kandi's battery swap out stations to be placed around various cities. The "swap" is being designed to only take minutes. How convenient!

    So we have a company that's building cars, the batteries and the swap out stations. Kind of like 7-11 meets (BYD).

    The problem though, is that the battery only lasts six hours on a charge.

    Stock is up 13.16% since I bought a small amount of shares on 10/11. I bought in because someday, this will be the future.

    "Hey honey! I'm getting the battery swapped out. Do we need milk?"
    13 Oct 2010, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Interesting fact: Investing house, BlackRock, is a major holder in BOTH Novavax and Axion. They have 2,611.054 shares of NVAX and according to John Petersen, 8,000,000 shares of Axion.

    Ooo! I'm bonding!
    13 Oct 2010, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The $21B auction of 10YR Ts was not well received having the lowest Dollar demand since DEC 2009. Bid to cover ratio was 2.99 on Dollar demand of $62.8B. Indirect buyers reached 41.5% down over 12% from the last offering. Hmmmm, doesn't seem like very good outlook going forward does it? Did I mention the yeild was low as well?
    13 Oct 2010, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  •  
    CNBC talking about the (effectively) Ceridian PCI index (fuel purchases for mostly trucking) being down two months in a row.

    Interactive charts, regions, commentary here.

    www.ceridianindex.com/

    A more recent update should appear in a couple of days, or sooner.

    Caveat: this index can't tell if traffic is switched from pure OTR (Over-the-road) trucking to trailers on RR flats to get the transport done. Chatter in the recent past had retailers trading out of speedy delivery (OTR) to cheaper but slower (RR).

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Here's a NY Times article today, Beyond Cap and Trade:
    www.nytimes.com/2010/1...
    13 Oct 2010, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Snapshot of my current portfolio:

    PM: (BPMSF.PK), (EOXFF.PK), (FRMSF.PK), (GBG), (GPRLF.PK), (KGILF.PK), (MXOM), (PAL), (SLW)

    REE's/special metals: (NATUF.PK), (GDLNF.PK), (GWMGF.PK), (LYSCF.PK), (MCP), (MLLOF.PK), (HUDRF.PK)

    High Yield Oil/Gas: (BBEP), (DOM), (EEP), (RSO), (HGT), (MARPS), (MVO), (PBT), (SJT), (TNK), (TOO)

    Oil/Gas: (ATPG), (DVR), (SSN)

    High Yield REIT/Cap.: (ARR), (NLY), (AGNC)

    High Yield TeleCom: (ALSK), (FTR)

    Pharma: (CLDX), (BMY), (IMGN), (NVAX)

    Alt. Energy/Tech: (CPST)

    China/Manf: (GELYF.PK)
    13 Oct 2010, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "All told, the U.S. banking industry stands to lose up to $44 billion as they "repurchase" such loans. More than half of that total is expected to be absorbed by five big banks: Bank of America Corp, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and SunTrust, according to Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets."

    The above quote comes from an article about how difficult it has become to get a mortgage, even for an executive with a credit score over 800. So, let's see, if we divide a $22 billion loss by five banks we get $4.4 billion for each in future losses. It just keeps getting better and better.

    Here's the link:

    news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20...
    13 Oct 2010, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Mark: CNBC is promoting that JP Morgan had a decent quarter. This Reuters article reads quite differently:

    www.reuters.com/articl...
    13 Oct 2010, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. As almost every one surmised and the author confirms this "Climate change." program is for the benefit of third world nations. He (Greenstone) says as much in the interview stating that the developing world can't caulk or reduce usage to obtain a green future they need breakthrough technologies now. My sentiments are that they need to reduce corruption and improve the conditions their populations live under before they worry about a green future. Just another shill trying to profit from the myth of man made climate change. If those nations that he says truly need new green technologies to prosper then I suggest they get busy building the means to pay for them.
    13 Oct 2010, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    (ATPG) is tanking. Looks like some institution is dumping. Debating taking profits right now. Huge surge in outflow. Big spike in volume in the last 10 minutes.

    ####

    5.1 earthquake just hit Oklahoma.
    13 Oct 2010, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Careful here, Maya. Looks like a whisper campaign by some shorts based on a lie ("word" is that managment made a downbeat announcement today at a conference - conference appearance doesn't start until after 4:10pm est.).

    Some headlines on some investor boards and newsletters based on the lie.

    This could snap back really fast. I'm sitting pat...

    LOL, though of course, IF management does announce dire news after the market closes...
    13 Oct 2010, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Looks like Al is going to announce productions figures and the opening of 2 more wells at the conference...

    OR...

    Bad numbers and delays on the 2 new wells.

    Could go either way.

    I'm waiting. Price has hit a narrow trading plateau now.
    13 Oct 2010, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Haven't sold yet. Probably going to stand pat. The future of this company is "risky bright." With the $1.5B of new notes the've just announced yesterday, they are creating a lot of capital to finish of the next giant rig they're building in China.

    GE is still in the picture, too.
    13 Oct 2010, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  •  
    They just announced better than expected flow from their second Telemark well. Below is a Motely Fool (aren't they popular today) article on ATPG. Big stand out to me is the 53% short interest. If today's San Francisco presentation about gowth is successful, this could really squeeze the shorts.

    Wishful thinking.

    www.fool.com/investing...
    13 Oct 2010, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  •  
    (NVAX): Couldn't get a bite on Jan $2 calls for $0.60 - not enough volume. Mumble, mutter, O.K. Took Jan. $3 calls for $0.20. I'll need bigger moves or more time to close out at a profit, or ...

    My shares could get called away Jan. 22 '10 for a profit, but likely less than I would have liked.

    We'll see how that goes. I'll use the proceeds to buy a few more on the dip I expect to see so I'll still be able to garner some additional profit.

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Doggone! Wrong insta! Apologies.

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Marcellus /Haynesville Shale environmental concerns:
    www.ogj.com/index/arti...

    Interesting website on oil and gas:
    www.ogj.com/index/curr...
    13 Oct 2010, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Triple: I'm having difficulty in getting into ATP's webcast. Site keeps saying I have to download Windows Media. I already have that. In any case here is the presentation in Adobe format, which reads pretty darn good about ATP's future:

    phx.corporate-ir.net/E...
    13 Oct 2010, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Flyonthewall screwed us on this one this afternoon. Posted their headline at 2:54PM: "Rumor: ATP Oil & Gas weakness attributed to management comments at conference."

    This was hours before the conference appearance.

    Flyonthewall is sometimes a stringer for TD AmeriTrades.
    13 Oct 2010, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Looks like production is running just a tad below projections from last quarter.... Financials are solid, but it looks like they are pulling cash from their last shelf opening to pay for further development of wells, which would be a good thing in my opinion... Their percentage participation in some wells seems to be confusing some of the media, who are reporting the whole amount in one story, then the (correct) lesser amount in a newer story, then doing some dumb math comparing apples and watermelons - common with the oil business and amateur journalists.

    I'm thinking this is no big deal, so far.
    13 Oct 2010, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Guessing Flyonthewall carries a lot of cred. The volume chart after his comment are off the wall! We're talking some 4M shares traded post his remark. Shorts are sending him cadillacs.

    Also, on the two year chart, there was a big buying binge when ATPG sunk under nine bucks early June after the BP oil spill. Those millions of shares are, well were, nearing in on the 100% gain mark. May be some profit taking going on, leaving the house money to do its thing.
    13 Oct 2010, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I think all 3 were factors.

    100% knee jerk profit taking (I'm much more methodical, 10% gain is enough to get me thinking "profits" the way things are going).

    Fake headines to start a stampeded.

    Shorties in the hunt.
    13 Oct 2010, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Angel Oil!
    14 Oct 2010, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Anyone know anything about Uranium One (UUU)?
    resourceinvestingnews....
    13 Oct 2010, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Uranium One (SXRZF) looks pretty solid having broken resistance trading @ $3.94. 52 WK high $3.95 today. 52 WK low $1.86 and P/E $12.34. The stock looks to have more appreciation potential as India, China and others expand their nuclear power programs. Spot price on uranium will probably be above $50 per ton fairly soon. While thinly traded it has operations in Canada, Africa and Australia with debt in line with industry standards. uranium1.com I may buy some if it pulls back to the $3.80- $3.85 range (Current support.)
    14 Oct 2010, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Hard: Do you have a stop on NVAX? If so, may I ask what it is, considering today's jump? If you don't have a stop/loss, where would you price one?
    13 Oct 2010, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  •  
    (NVAX): I sold options instead - don't want to get out, except for my wife's account. Took profits and will be getting back in for her.

    Barring unusual catalysts today, I think it goes to at least $2.37, maybe a penny or two more or less. Again sans a catalyst, draws back some more over time.

    Support $2.35-$2.36 & $2.42 (older though), 200 day SMA $2.34.

    Based on the bump with no (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) related news, if I was a shorter, I'd do it here again, for short-term movement. Why? *HUGE* volume, large unwarranted price movement, lots of momentum players, easy to spook them out here.

    If there's *any* move up today (should be at least a little for the shorts to set up trigger activation), I'd set a really tight *trailing* stop. Maybe 2% or so?

    My firm belief is that without catalyst, past patterns will continue and we'll do the $2.20 or so range again.

    Caveat: I have no way to judge if sentiment (due to BARDA, QE2, M&A sentiment spill-over, ...) has changed in the longs or shorts. But I do know that few are investing now, most are trading as a survival technique.

    Please remember that I'm the least capable of all here for trading and I may be a good contrary indicator.

    HardToLove

    P.S. 7/28 trendline w/b ~$2.30.
    14 Oct 2010, 07:47 AM Reply Like
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    Fascinating website of penny +++ stocks
    www.redchip.com/visibi...
    13 Oct 2010, 09:28 PM Reply Like
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    I've read elsewhere that we've already experienced the golden cross in the S&P. I'm not yet seeing the 50 day MA cross above the 200 day MA. But we're really close. Another decent up day and, according to the QuoteMedia charts I use, we should then see this bullish indicator occur.

    Trip: I noticed the the COO of ATPG, George Morris, sold 2500 shares on the 11th and 12th of this month, 1500 shares at $15.20 and then a 1000 at $15.74. What makes me curious about this is the COO only owns 33,800 shares. And why is he selling?

    OG: Finally, finally, finally, I knew about a website before you did! Redchip is a great website for the pennies. I really like their daily ideas/videos. Apologies for not bringing this gem to your attention earlier. Haven't been in there for a few weeks. Thanks for bringing Redchip back into the fold. It's definitely worth a daily glimpse.

    Just so many dang places to take a peek at everyday. I don't think I've been into Tickerspy for at least two weeks!
    14 Oct 2010, 12:03 AM Reply Like
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    CEO trades look like the normal financial moves of a small holder exercising options or trading to make a buck. Trades are too minor to tell us much.
    14 Oct 2010, 11:37 AM Reply Like
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    Here's news on Congress requiring greater use of ethanol. Our cost for corn just went up. Here's the link:
    www.meatpoultry.com/Ne...

    <E15, which would be a 50% increase from the currently permitted level of 10% ethanol in gasoline, will result in dramatic increases in the portion of the US corn crop used to make fuel rather than food and, when fully implemented, could result in more than 40% of the nation’s corn crop being diverted to ethanol production. The corn ethanol industry has received over $30 billion in federal subsidies over the last three decades,” the statement said. >
    14 Oct 2010, 02:01 AM Reply Like
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    Happens every election. The corn squeezin's lobby is not to be discounted.
    14 Oct 2010, 11:38 AM Reply Like
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    As you probably know already, the US$ has dropped in value by a little over 17% in the last six months. If it were to continue apace that means we could see a 34% devaluation per year. I suspect that many warehouses are full of products and materials due to the inventory build up that helped the economy grow. It is normal for that to occur at this time of year in preparation for the holiday season. I would also expect that retailers and wholesalers will opt to depress margins rather than try to increase prices in this economic environment. So, things should continue on like everything is normal for about another six months or so. At some point the margins will no longer be able to absorb the price increases of new imports and we could see inflation rear its head.

    Most commodities, such as oil, are priced in US$ and should have already increased due to the drop in the dollar. I suspect that the reason they haven't run up yet is that demand isn't keeping up with supply, therefore holding prices down from where they would otherwise be. That, of course, has not been the case with precious metals where demand has not been in short supply.

    I am not predicting inflation outright. I am just saying that the key, IMHO, is to watch the US$ value in the coming months. If it continues to drop, inflation will become inevitable as foreign producers and local distributors cannot operate at a loss and continue in business. If the US$ levels off or rises, inflation could be held in check, at least for the time being. Just watch the US$.
    14 Oct 2010, 12:05 PM Reply Like
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    Mark, I just read an article that stated Walmart changed its strategy. They had a huge roll back on prices last summer. They found people were buying their specials and nothing else. Now, they are raising prices, on average 2%+ per month (in USA). They are growing in China and emerging markets. Where did I see that article? I can't remember. I'll see if I can find it and post it.
    14 Oct 2010, 12:39 PM Reply Like
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    OG - I saw the same article. I'm not sure but it may have been Yahoo business news. They may have already garnered all the market share in the US that they can so there is no sense to keep prices so low if it doesn't attract more customers. The recession has already done as much of the market mix adjustments as they are likely to get unless things get worse. So why not increase profits? Growth is coming from overseas now and for the foreseeable future.
    14 Oct 2010, 08:13 PM Reply Like
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    Art Cashin on Zero Hedge regarding hyperinflation: Comments anyone?
    www.zerohedge.com/arti...

    Here's the new Schiff videoblog: www.europac.net/media/...
    14 Oct 2010, 02:12 AM Reply Like
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    O.G. I read the ZH piece - great recounting of what history should have taught us is the future if we stay on course.

    Thanks for the heads up.

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2010, 08:09 AM Reply Like
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    OG: I'm not buying into Zero's thrust. And if the Schiff video is the same I watched yesterday, I was...well, for the first time ever, I did not listen to the whole video. Too much crap about what others think; way too defensive, way too narcissistic. Unusual for Peter to do this.
    14 Oct 2010, 02:35 AM Reply Like
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    Maya-I guess Schiff is growing weary from all of the attacks. His position has always been a minority position. However, he is talking not only about inflation, but hyperinflation, and so is Art Cashin (historically, per the Zero Hedge article, Cashin is discussing Germany in the last century).
    Now we have indications there will be more Fed easing.
    They are keeping interest rates almost at zero.
    In the meantime, prices are rising on grains, meats, fuel, goods and services. You don't need to watch the futures markets. All you need to do is go into a grocery store and fill a cart. I see prices rising fairly rapidly in our community.
    This morning we have gold at $1377.
    (All this and the stock market is up. Dow over 11,000.)
    If we take Zero Hedge's definition of hyperinflation, as a full collapse of the USD, we see we are on our way. Signs are already pointing in that direction. (Like a box that says "this way up...")
    I hope they are wrong.
    14 Oct 2010, 07:55 AM Reply Like
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    The CPI this A.M was +0.4%. Strip out food and gas(?) and it was +0.1%. The first was consideered very high and the second was as expected. PPI grew twice as fast as expected.

    I believe these are the first *overt* (that is, the government lying could no longer hide the truth) confirmations seen in the reported numbers.

    Food was +1.2%. Leaseman(sp?), says, with charts displayed, margins are being squeezed.

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2010, 09:07 AM Reply Like
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    O.G. Maya HTL: Greetings. Judging from the POTUS's political and economic philosophy and the actions of the regime after the ascension Er... Inauguration he must have read Maynerd's thesis as well as Alynski's. We are headed in that direction as "Fundamental changes." have been jammed through as fast as possible. Only twenty days left until we trigger another wave of change. Back to the future!
    14 Oct 2010, 10:02 AM Reply Like
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    Obviously wrong on the silver move. Will begin to re-acquire PM's and start to pyramid back into positions.

    Guess that correction is still not in the cards. Still looking for $25 by year end and possible $30 by march. At this rate it is becoming obvious that my projections could be exceeded since I was calculating a correction in there along the way. We could still have that correction but who knows.

    If the shorts have capitulated this could get really interesting. If this is wave 3 of the bull market.....longest wave..... things could become rather silly and then get even more parabolic as we enter the last 2 waves.

    It's kinda funny that we no longer hear the nay sayers attacking us gold (silver) bugs anymore. Looks like after a small dose of reality concerning QE has wiped out those rats.

    Reality was THEY were on the sinking ship and have finally realized they are going down with the ship. Time they got in the dingy and started rowing on over to our relic...at least it floats.
    14 Oct 2010, 08:53 AM Reply Like
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    DG,

    I expected a USD bump mid-month with a decline in metals as well, at least for the short run, and it looks like a very bad call.

    But I still am curious as to how long stocks and commodities can both keep going up. They are both influenced by the dollar, of course, but this is just not normal. If the only thing propelling both these markets is expectations regarding QE2, this will end with a bang. It's still musical chairs. They haven't added any chairs, but they have turned up the music.
    14 Oct 2010, 10:45 AM Reply Like
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    Eastern Onion is reporting that VP Joe, Biteme will lead an expedition consisting of all 535 elected representatives on an expedition to find the lost sword of bipartisanship. They will be leaving right after the new CON-gress is sworn in. LOL. We should be so lucky!
    14 Oct 2010, 09:39 AM Reply Like
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    Its a trick!!!

    Don't fall for it.

    They are leading everyone into an Obama ambush!!!!

    Everyone will die. BO obviously does not care about collateral damage. Look at this election projections and the number of doomed Dems falling on Obamas sword.
    14 Oct 2010, 09:46 AM Reply Like
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    200 years of DOW/Gold ratio. Notice second chart with the gold standard and fiat eras defined. Notice the wedge shaping up. Good lord if (WHEN) we get to the down side of that wedge.

    www.sharelynx.net/char...
    14 Oct 2010, 09:54 AM Reply Like
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    Good thing we created the Fed to stabilize things, eh?
    14 Oct 2010, 10:20 AM Reply Like
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    The (reduction) in volatility is so obvious after we went off the gold standard.

    We really must thank the fed for stabilizing things. LOL
    14 Oct 2010, 10:22 AM Reply Like
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    Yep! Can't get more stable than straight down! Laws of inertia and gravity see to that!

    One possible good outcome, but at great pain, is that it may provide the powder needed for the Rand/Ron Paul dynamic duo to blow up the Fed.

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2010, 10:24 AM Reply Like
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    The FED will blow itself up.

    Exhibit A. The chart.

    Exhibit B. Benny boy and his miraculous helicopter.

    Exhibit C. Timmy "G-string" Geitner.
    14 Oct 2010, 10:55 AM Reply Like
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    Verizon Wireless will begin selling Apple's iPad at its 2,000 retail stores nationwide on Oct. 28, the companies announced Thursday.
    14 Oct 2010, 10:10 AM Reply Like
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    AT&T (T) announced that it too would begin selling the Wi-Fi + 3G version of the tablet at retail stores.beginning on Thursday, October 28.
    14 Oct 2010, 10:28 AM Reply Like
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    With Ipad in VZ's tool box, the I Phone can't be far behind.Just in time for Christmas.

    Re: Politics- I can't believe my eyes. Blumenthal is pulling ahead in CT. This makes me wonder if we really will see things shaken up in Congress on election day.
    14 Oct 2010, 10:44 AM Reply Like
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    I'm continually amazed at how people will vote for a jackass they know rather than someone that might be better, but that isn't already a 'somebody'. The US electorate is largely still a bunch of sheep. I'm still holding out hope that enough of them wake up this November, but it's looking more and more bleak every day.
    14 Oct 2010, 11:07 AM Reply Like
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    Silentz I think the article here by Jim Quinn and my comments best explains your observations.

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    14 Oct 2010, 11:32 AM Reply Like
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    Any thoughts on natural gas?
    14 Oct 2010, 11:04 AM Reply Like
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    Inflation floats all boats and a real energy policy would do wonders for gas but.....Still looking for that energy policy.
    14 Oct 2010, 11:25 AM Reply Like
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    lower98th: Greetings. With the onset of cooler weather NG should have a run up especially if this winter is a cold one which IMHO it will be for much of the northern U.S. I currently have one straight NG play Southern Union Gas (SUG) which has performed well and pays a decent dividend. I haven't looked at the numbers recently so I don't know if you would want to open a position here. I also have a mixed energy play Penn West Energy (PWE) This one is on the rebound and may be worth getting in to and pays a decent dividend as well. Freya has a couple as well though She hasn't visited recently. I hope that helps.
    14 Oct 2010, 11:35 AM Reply Like
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    Stays weak.

    U.S. NG rig count (as of 10/8/10) of 971 and keeps muddling around there, still much higher than demand justifies (maybe due to need to drill or lose leases?) and we know that demand, based on constantly reducing GDP estimates, has not provided price support (and the weather hasn't been much help either).

    Canadian NG count also higher than needed at 165 and been rising, although not as severely as the U.S. counts.

    Regarding counts, shale plays have a high depletion rate, although from all I read it is usually over-estimated. Depending on whose numbers you believe, the rig count may be just replacing depleting wells. But I don't think that really holds water if you consider the storage action - demand is still way below historical growth trends relative to production.

    Over the last many weeks, injections have mostly come in at the higher end of expectations and storage is still to the higher side for this time of year. Need a big winter weather hit to really affect what's going on right now.

    Caveat: haven't been following closely for a *long* time since nothing much was changing. Haven't updated graphs either. Haven't followed forecasts for weather.

    Possible catalysts: Severe weather. Fed keeps sh*tting the dollar, oil goes to $100+ again, a real energy bill that takes advantage of our resources, gets through the U.S. Clowngress ...

    WAIT! Was this energy bill thingy a dream?

    Best near-term play may be companies that can benefit *if* the nightmare case with the dollar strengthens (forcing a continued rise in oil) and NG stays low. These sorts of companies (companies that help us move away from oil dependency) benefit as NG prices fall because the fuel that they may rely upon gets cheaper. Also, companies that make products using NG as feedstock (plastics manufacturers, etc.) would benefit.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2010, 11:47 AM Reply Like
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    I am covering the oil/gas question in several ways:

    1. High Yield Royalty Trusts: (DOM), (HGT), (MARPS), (MVO), (PBT) and (SJT)

    2. High Yield oil/gas companies: (BBEP), (TNK), (TOO), (NLY), (EEP)

    3. High growth oil/gas companies: (ATPG), (SSN)

    4. Oil/gas Service companies: (DVR)
    14 Oct 2010, 12:17 PM Reply Like
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    I struggled quite a bit on this decision… I took profits on (NVAX) this morning at 2.41 on the 'pigs get slaughtered' rule. I am planning to start re-entry at 2.3.
    14 Oct 2010, 11:15 AM Reply Like
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    www.economicpolicyjour...

    I missed this. Did anyone else see this?

    We are deep in the doo doo but everyone here all ready knew this.
    14 Oct 2010, 11:18 AM Reply Like
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    That's a good website. Thanks, DG.
    14 Oct 2010, 11:25 AM Reply Like
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    Economic dispair. Thank you Mr. Obvious Bernanke. As for the wise economist stating that "Something that can not go on forever will stop." is just like Fuds first law of physics. "If you push something hard enough it will fall over." duh.
    14 Oct 2010, 12:59 PM Reply Like
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    AGFLATION. Must read ( supports our discussion above):
    www.bloomberg.com/news...

    Fill your freezer, it is going to get worse. I'm betting DG will be hunting big game.
    14 Oct 2010, 11:53 AM Reply Like
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    Just bought another year supple of freeze dried foods from Costco for $799.00. $200.00 off regular price. Will store for 25 years.

    Looking at those squirrels in the back yard with some real plans for hunter stew.

    Canned potatoes and carrots 2 weeks ago. Should work out well in stew. Stocked up on a LOT of 22 ammo at the estate auction of a gun nut bigger than me. Squirrel meat for years to come.
    14 Oct 2010, 12:15 PM Reply Like
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    I have several small herds of deer that wander through my back yard each day. Some of those herds may disappear.
    14 Oct 2010, 08:51 PM Reply Like
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    When properly culled you can get a self sustaining herd for an unlimited supply of venison. Assuming the neighbors don't beat you to the meat.
    14 Oct 2010, 08:56 PM Reply Like
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    David Jackson and I have been doing a little corresponding of late. This morning he provided this link to an article written by David White (a bit of a frightening read):

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    After reading the links provided by you good folks, especially Guns' article on Bernanke spilling his guts, and the above article, and what Jamie Dimon had to say yesterday, and that the banks are getting hammered today, I've switched from cautious bullish back to somewhat bearish.

    As I wrote to David J. yesterday, these schizophrania mood swings are quite difficult to interpret (about my own changing sentiments).

    Began paring some positions today, about two weeks ahead of schedule. Keeping all gold and silver and paladium positions open, for now, as well as NVAX and AXPW, only beause they both are potentially real close to having some good news coming out.

    I'm not saying a correction is iminent, but I do believe this QE2 driven, election cycle driven, dollar devaluing driven run up doesn't have a whole lot more life in it. The technicals are just shy of creepy and ghoulish; 'tis the season.

    What kills me is if one is not increasing their portfolio, as Mark mentioned above, to the tune of 18% this year, the amount the dollar has devalued, then one is not, in theory, staying ahead of the game. It's almost like you have to take risk. I have, and am now backing off (and will likely start clipping coupons!).

    Anyone tracking what kind of insider selling has happened during the past month or so?
    14 Oct 2010, 12:49 PM Reply Like
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    Maya we are all suffering from schizophrania right now. There is the proverbial devil on one shoulder and the angel on the other, Whispering in our ears.

    We know they are both there and we HAVE to make a decission (or go straight to hell) but the voices are identical and we do not know who is on which shoulder.

    So which whisper do you believe?
    14 Oct 2010, 01:14 PM Reply Like
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    I've been feeding the doves and pigeons in the back yard for several years now and have them trained. I figure I can take four or five of them per day without reducing breeding stock significantly. Those flocks could last for a very long time. Fryed, baked and fricasede any one have some good recipies for game birds. They are delicious brined in butter milk over night wrapped in bacon and grilled over charcoal. Just don't tell the sheriff he's likely to accuse me of hunting over a baited field. SHhhhhhh. Spell check has left the building.
    14 Oct 2010, 12:51 PM Reply Like
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    I may have to look at Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) again.
    14 Oct 2010, 01:05 PM Reply Like
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    Rob, you got a winner with that recipe. Squab is very good on the grill wrapped in bacon. Just don't cook it to long.... it will dry up like jerky.
    14 Oct 2010, 01:08 PM Reply Like
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    Keeping the pond stocked with bass and brim. And the Talapia some weed control wonk stockedd a decade ago could come in handy. Might have to shoot that greedy otter though, not to mention the neighbors. Those duck feeders don't count as baiting, do they?
    14 Oct 2010, 02:37 PM Reply Like
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    Nah. It's conservation don't you know. You have to cull the flock. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
    14 Oct 2010, 03:24 PM Reply Like
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    More abd more states are passing constitutional amendments protecting the individuals right to hunt and fish. What a sad commentary that a minority of people can make enough noise to cause this. news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20....
    14 Oct 2010, 04:16 PM Reply Like
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    Agriculture is now what I'd be investing in or worrying about when it comes to inflation. The US produces massive surpluses of the stuff. It's the stuff you buy overseas that will spike. Load up on toys, furniture, precious metals, rare earth materials, steel, oil, dishware, etc. I leave out electronics only because technology advances keeping this price from going haywaire. Thank tech for the increased standard of living and low inflation. Then thank China for their low waged products which the Federal Reserve likes to keep inflation low as all our jobs slowly get destroyed.

    It really isn't China's fault as much as it was the Federal Reserve and the US's trade policy to combat inflation.
    14 Oct 2010, 01:00 PM Reply Like
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    which stocks do you like, Moon?
    14 Oct 2010, 01:07 PM Reply Like
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    Moon: Greetings. It may be more to the point that it's their inflation policy being used to combat trade, currency war and all . LOL.
    14 Oct 2010, 01:12 PM Reply Like
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    If anyone has read The Mole this morning the rumor he speaks of
    (My comment) could mean it is time to take a look at the cue from Yellow Hoards mention of CYB. I think I will keep all of my cash in this for now just in case and collect the 2% dividend in the short term. Beats leaving it in dollars for now.
    14 Oct 2010, 01:06 PM Reply Like
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    Oops CYB dividend gone!!
    14 Oct 2010, 03:43 PM Reply Like
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    Fed judge says 20 states can continue lawsuit against Fed Gvt. over healthcare.

    CNBC 15:10

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2010, 03:11 PM Reply Like
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    Wake me up when it hits SCOTUS.
    14 Oct 2010, 03:54 PM Reply Like
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    Hard: Thanks for your thoughts about the stops on NVAX. (Will you quit underating yourself? Your awesome! I always appreciate your detailed thinking!)

    Guns: psst! One shoulder's whisperer is named Hunch, the other Crunch! Crunch is the one that pulls me into Triple's jacuzzi (to me, no visual delight!). Hunch is the gambler, the risk taker, the fearless caped P* trader, who winds up gettin' Massey-quered.

    I don't like either of them!
    14 Oct 2010, 04:04 PM Reply Like
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    You and triple should not skinny dip in the jacuzzi.

    Just a thought on my part.

    Not making and judgements about you and triples lifestyles and all but just saying........
    14 Oct 2010, 04:10 PM Reply Like
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    The Jacuzzi's great. I've been spending alot of time there of late. Not to worry though it's always kept spotlesly clean. Even war horses have standards you know. Speaking of that I still haven't found my glasses and hat.
    14 Oct 2010, 04:23 PM Reply Like
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    Pray tell it's not with Maya and Triple. This picture in my head just keeps getting uglier and uglier.
    14 Oct 2010, 05:55 PM Reply Like
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    Old Cherokee proverb: Man who swims in Chattahoochee* better be friend to snapping turtle clan.

    *Literally, painted red river, ie, the color of my Georgia red clay mud jaccuzzi.

    There's also a fun tale about how the bobcat lost his tail, with similar message.
    14 Oct 2010, 06:09 PM Reply Like
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    Cleary posted signs absolve management of responsiblity for lost personal items...

    For further details, see additional post below...

    As for sexual preferences, I am a hetero turtle...

    But if its just about comparing "performance", turtles may be famously slow at some things, but on the other hand, there are SOME things where slow is better...
    14 Oct 2010, 06:21 PM Reply Like
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    Hilarious! How come none of these stipulations are on the back of my TripleBlack Jacuzzi membership card? Now I have to take out travelers' insurance, get legal advice, have the EPA come in for an inspection, before every visit. Where do they sell Roaring Twenties swimsuits?
    14 Oct 2010, 06:45 PM Reply Like
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    I thought you were not wearing one.... but somehow seeing you in a flappers swim suit is just not helping with the image in my head.
    14 Oct 2010, 08:58 PM Reply Like
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    REE update:

    (MLLOF.PK) - My recent featured pick from the smaller REE stocks - is up 20.63% for the day as I write this.

    (HUDRF.PK) - Up 5.52%

    (LYSCF.PK) - Up 8.70%

    (MCP) - Up 2.85%

    (GWMGF.PK) - Down 7.57%, to $.33 per share...

    Anyone who sees a trend here has it right.

    I've been invested in (GWMGF.PK) for quite a while, since I first discovered this QC and investigated the topic of REE supplies. I recently cashed out my entire investment, plus a little profit, so my remaining holdings in GWM are entirely house money...

    Still, I will be taking a large chunk of those off the table tomorrow.

    (GWMGF.PK) recently undertook a large gamble. We discussed that here, when it happened. They are in the process of hugely diluting their stock, and despite the powerful forces pushing up the value of other REE companies, they are using that upsurge for dilution. Perhaps they were forced to do this by a combination of factors. The recent series of what should have been small and easily handled loans they floated, plus restatements of their recent financial papers, are troubling...

    Regardless, shareholders are now looking at dilution of about 43%, with a potential (due to the included warrants exerciseable in 2 years) of a similar dilution at a later date. The pricing of the offering, $.33, is precisely where the stock has settled, though I suspect that the price could well continue to decline to somewhere in the $.20's.

    I have decided to move half of these funds into other REE investments, and wait to see if GWM's promise pays off in the future.

    I am keeping the remainder in their stock just because I believe there is a chance that they will be acquired by a larger company. Unfortunately the chance that this would be a Japanese manufacturer (they once had ties to that group) have faded as the Japanese have recently made REE purchases in southeast Asia.

    When Lynas opens their new facilities, they will leap past GWM as a full-fledged vertically intergrated REE company (this event will probably take place over the next 18 months).

    I will be keeping a chunk of GWM stock, just in case, but my emphasis has shifted, and I am now accumulating Lynas, Medallion and Hudson.

    As for (MCP), I am watching that stock for signs of a final profit taking (which is likely between $28-$30). I will be adding in that event, OR if they manage to stabilize above $31-32.
    14 Oct 2010, 04:42 PM Reply Like
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    Trip: Last year GWM did a Canada-only offering, which failed miserably, and was terminated before the offered shares were filled. John Petersen wrote to me that it costs about $250,000 for all paperwork, SEC filings, and legal fees, etc., to bring the offering to the states. Apparently, GMW was too cheap, or ill-informed. It will be real interesting to see how this offering comes to fruition, or not.

    Thanks for the updates! And congrats on having house money only in GWM!
    14 Oct 2010, 05:37 PM Reply Like
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    I'm thinking that the pricing I'm seeing shows SOME interest in their offering - but its a big gamble.

    I'm seeing more effect on their competition than them.

    Lynas is benefitting immensely from the disarray in the GWM camp. I know I've been shifting money between the two, and I doubt I'm the only one.

    I'm still thinking that the best play (right now) is to focus on the leaders (Lynas and perhaps MolyCorp), but keep an eye pealed on the more interesting juniors. The thing sorting the goats from the sheep seems to be lead times and access - plus mining savvy. This is why I like Byrd and Medallion.

    Since I first bought (MLLOF.PK) last month it has doubled. It ended today up 30.26%.
    14 Oct 2010, 05:54 PM Reply Like
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    Natural Gas: Catching up on some reading (still *way* behind from my trip out west), I ran across this. Normally I don't follow Kieth's stuff, but this is an interview with "The King of natural gas ..." that is apparently considered knowledgeable.

    Mark has already read this, so he can skip it!

    "What the King of Natural Gas Forecasting Says About Future Prices"

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    If they'd done this article a couple years ago, maybe some folks would've saved some money out there in the non-'Gades world.

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2010, 06:06 PM Reply Like
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    As I hinted earlier in this QC, I'm not playing NG directly at the moment, but have been buying high yield stocks (royalty trusts, pipeline operators, etc) for the most part.

    Once again I am disagreeing with the "out to global warming lunch" official forecasts for this winter, though I'm thinking we will be seeing not quite as much cold weather in the NorthEast as we did last year.

    Supply will again be ample, and prices similar to last year's (some ofthe slack in demand will be coming from new industrial demand and particularly for electricity generation).

    But I must confess I'm not watching like I did last year, when I was invested in the ng etf space.
    14 Oct 2010, 06:32 PM Reply Like
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    I hope you didn't think this was directed at you, or anybody specific. But earlier someone had asked about NG and I had said it would remain weak. Since it was still fresh on my mind, I posted since I'm by no means expert and the interviewee apparently is.

    HardToLove

    P.S. I believe there's lots of plays relatd to NG, especially MLPs, that can do well. Just have to be on the right side of the NG chain, as you are.
    14 Oct 2010, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  •  
    LOL, I didn't take it that way at all, HTL. I recall someone (Silentz?) asking the question earlier, and I'm just trying to participate.

    Your comment was correct, and I agree with your take on the history here. I played NG as a seasonal last year, and earned almost 20% on my investment, but I bailed near the peak, too. I was in the Canadian ng etf, as I recall...

    Its all good.
    14 Oct 2010, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    If you go over to Tickerspy, there is an article there that all the MLP's were downgraded by a Wells Fargo analyst.
    Here's the link: www.tickerspy.com/news...
    14 Oct 2010, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I miss Freya.
    14 Oct 2010, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  •  
    98th: Me, too. Me, too.

    ####

    Gang: I've been ping ponging emails with David Jackson. In a reponse to another unrelated question just sent to him, I also informed him about the Internet Explorer pop up box, "Stop running this script" thingy some of us made comment about a few months back.

    Seems around 45 to 50 comments, this bug begins to happen. Lately, I've been noticing the pop up box occurs twice before I can read or make comment. And the more comments, the longer it takes to get rid of this pop up.

    How many of you are still seeing this? Please respond, either way. Are you Mozilla users seeing this?

    Mark: Will you continue this poll into the next thread? I wrote to David that I'd get back with some results.
    14 Oct 2010, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Have not seen that box in a while. I guess its still around. Seems you think it takes quite a few messages to get it to show up. I was getting it just by opening seeking alpha and looking around and not making any comments.
    14 Oct 2010, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I use Mozilla and haven't seen that box pop up.

    I will keep this survey going into the next thread which is due up a little later tonight.
    14 Oct 2010, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I see it around 100+ comments, IF I'm on my throwaway wintel computer. Rarely see it on my workstation, but it does happen (running IE there). Never see it on my Apples (go figure).
    14 Oct 2010, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I get it at work (where I am still running IE 6), when there about 80 or more messages in a thread. I run Safari at home on Windows XP and do not get the message, though sometimes the page takes an usually long time to load at 110+ messages.
    15 Oct 2010, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Got an insta yall might enjoy. OG's link on the food costs and some other things I read today got me to thinking. The insta will tell ya how my mind works. LOL

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    14 Oct 2010, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    priceless guns
    14 Oct 2010, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Placed your order yet?

    Glad you enjoyed it.
    14 Oct 2010, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "The insta will tell ya how my mind works."

    I'm actually afraid to hit that link...

    OK, I'll switch over to my throwaway computer. If it breaks, I'll just throw it away.
    14 Oct 2010, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  •  
    That was no problem, DG. LOL, the book looks like what Brigade Quartermasters used to sell. Their "Revenge" series was amazing...

    I just thought I would repeat some of what I posted, the link might come in handy for the readers among us...

    baen.com has a free reading library. You can download free books from top flight sf authors legitimately there, including formats for the kindle, the nook, ipad, etc. I recommend John Ringo and David Weber, but they have many fine authors.

    You can also buy digital downloads or actual physical books there, of course, but few publishers have such an extensive and high quality free listing. The publisher is a good guy, to boot - I've met him several times.
    14 Oct 2010, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Please go back to my insta to see my comment on your book site. One must be careful about the comments here in a more public area.
    14 Oct 2010, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  •  
    When I upgraded to Windows 7 from Vista, that particular box went away. Tried Mozilla, but went back to windows explorer due other issues. This site is wonderful, but a bit more troublesome than some others. I have to click out and back in for "speed," as moving around within the site still sometimes is slow or freezes...much more so than on zerohedge, marketwatch, cnbc, etc. Good for SA that it and you guys are worth the trouble.

    And note to David. Thanks for forwarding issues to your tech group, but the info they ask from me would take hours, meaning that they are very skilled in info-seek overkill, insuring that they don't get a reply, and so only have to respond with a barrage of questions instead of working on the problem.
    14 Oct 2010, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Here is the latest response I got:

    I'm sorry to hear you are experiencing problems with the site. We will try to resolve the issue as soon as possible.
    In order to do so, I would appreciate it if you could help by providing us with the following information:

    1. I understand you are using Windows 7 (and there is no need for you to go back to an older Windows version, you should be able to view the site pages properly). What is the browser type and version?
    2. Can you please try to load the pages with a different browser and check if it's occurring only with a specific one?
    3. Can you identify any errors on the bottom bar of the browser (red X)?
    3. Please try to send us the problematic page's files. In order to do so, please follow these steps:
    • Go to the browser, to the homepage, or another page you had the problems with.
    • Go to the browser top menu and click on "File" -> "Save As" or "Save Page As" -> then select a location for saving it.
    • Go to the selected folder, select the HTML file together with the "files" folder and zip all.
    • Email us the compressed file.
    I hope it isn't too complicated :-)
    If you prefer being contacted by chat or by phone, please let me know.
    14 Oct 2010, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Uhm..well, err. Nope seems I would not have responded to that at all.

    Just play a Shultz...I see nothing!! (Hogans Heros for any youngsters out there) Yea... I know the response still......Who?!
    14 Oct 2010, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    LOL. I had an acquaintance who was like that. He was too cheap to pay me for photoshop lessons (I was offering classes back then), so he would call me with "little questions".

    Thank god for caller id.

    That list isn't a problem notification. Its a "fix it yourself" kit.

    At least it had a friendly tone, though, LOL.

    I'm still betting that these blog pages have a piece of sloppy adware causing problems.
    14 Oct 2010, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Please go to QC # 108 at the following link:

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    14 Oct 2010, 10:29 PM Reply Like
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