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OG's Quic Chat #91 8/17/2010 145 comments
Stocks mentioned in QC #90
(AER), (AX), (BPMSF.PK), (BTP), (BWP), (CAT), (CPST), (CRT), (CVM), (DBB), (DOM), (DSCO), (DXY), (EDVMP.PK), (EOXFF.PK), (ETRUF.PK), (EUO), (FCGL), (FCGS), (FLR), (FRMSF.PK), (GBG), (GDLNF.PK), (GDX), (GDXJ), (GELYF.PK), (GLD), (GLD), (GM), (GNI), (GPRLF.PK), (GQMLF.PK), (GS), (GWMGF.PK), (HGT), (HURDF.PK), (IAU), (KGILF.PK), (LYSCF.PK), (MARPS), (MCP), (MTR), (MVO), (MXOM.OB), (NATUG.PK), (NRT), (PAL), PBT), (RWM), (SBR), (SJT), (SLW), (SPH), (TLT), (TTM), (TZA), (URI), (VXX), (WHX)
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This post has 145 comments:
OyGee: I'm at a loss of words except to express wholehearted gratitude. You are a blessed friend and the Mother of all of us. I sincerely hope I get to meet in person you and your hubby someday. It will be an honor.
I'm thinking of companies like Nestle, BHP, Canadian Pacific, et al, each of whom will benefit apace with developing economies as they provide something of real value to those markets, but all of whom comply with more rigid accounting and reporting standards.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Given the recent policies of the Fed/Regime, this truism, that extremely low interest rates for Tbills are NOT a good indicator for deflation, but are, if anything, INflationary reflections, is some interesting history.
Wouldn't it be ironic if they chose this path to block deflation, and ignited inflation instead? Or is THAT the whole idea to start with?
Now we are hearing that China is quietly selling off a few dollar assets and moving into other investments, under cover of the new $carry totheFED program.
SHOULD dollar devaluation crank up strongly again, I look for the Chinese to reverse course to prop up the dollar.
We are in the grip of many conflicting agendas right now, not least of which is the driving political requirement to continue borrowing billions to cover earlier bets, and seek to roll over those bets into even cheaper interest rates (which has the effect, of course, of reducing the cost of borrowing, and freeing up money to spend on ideology projects OR to use to reduce the deficit, though the last is not a serious consideration at the moment, with many vote-buying projects still active).
Inflation when it comes (and it will come) will be as a result of all these complex balls falling out of the juggler's pattern. It will be in the way of a catastrophic failure, probably somewhere in the labyrinth of dammed up dollar oceans the Fed and the Regime have built in their own unique version of the TVA.
news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us...
Something afoot in the gold and silver (especially) markets. Harvey Organ's daily missal has some interesting details.
harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
======================
With all the smoke billowing out of the physical silver market and a drain of silver inventory on-going at the Comex and JPM & HSBC reducing their shorts as shown by the Bank Participation report I can only interpret that this massive drop off in silver paper trading has moved to the physical market. Could it be that we have exposed the LBMA unallocated bullion fraud to the extent that investors are ceasing their business there on a massive scale? How otherwise could the trade suddenly decline to the lowest level since 1996? There is also a big drop off in paper gold trading. Could it be that the GATA exposure of the LBMA fraud has hit the bull’s eye? Only time will tell but if this is true that will not be very much time!
======================...
A strike in Bolivia, two weeks old, has the potential tio affect silver, zinc, tim and lead. Government is trying to resolve it. The silver output from two affected mines is 83% of Bolivia's annual 1.1MM tonnes.
Shysters everywhere: "Tons of gold imports turn to dust on arrival
Gold imported into the UAE by traders and investors turned out to be fake on closer inspection "
US sees net overall capital outflow, long-term inflow
China Sold More Treasurys in June and seems to be buying more Euro-based stuff and other non-U.S. stuff.
Zero Hedge says charges will be forthcoming against Lehman execs, possibly including Fuld.
Founder Of Reaganomics Says That "Without A Revolution, Americans Are History"
HardToLove
DD for traders, but upside looks substantial - dependent on if the shorts decide to jump in en mass again and when.
Regardless, non-greedy trades can garner a little working capital.
HardToLove
This is a follow up on my last post regarding how the market will be going into 2011. Thanks for all your comments.
It seems like the expansion in the rest of the world is passing us by this time, making me a bit more bearish about our dig out of the recessionary hole. I suppose that's because we are becoming more state run and our private sector is being consumed by the government. Already housing is state run (Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie make up 98% of all loans). The new state run health care system is once again being thrust onto private businesses to pay (it is a tax, a tax on the productive organs of society).
While China is trying to get government and all the corrupt ills out of the private sector we are trying to get government into everything. That is why this recession is dragging on and on in my mind. A mild recovery may come in 2011 but only by the grace of the private sector's technological innovation and hard work of Americans in the private sector. More than likely the government will try to foist yet another dead carcass onto the wagon keeping the economy from moving.
We need a change. Not a Republican or Democratic one, but a less government one. If that means no goodies to foreign governments, no helping out in wars, no freebies to special interest, no increases to entitlements and welfare, and no growth in GDP sponsored by government deficit spending so be it.
And we need no new taxes or government mandated spending increases on citizens and businesses. Then and only then can I say we are getting the economy back on track.
seekingalpha.com/insta...
www.raremetalblog.com/...
This has been coming for a while. It could make ALL the difference.
Appolgies for not responding. I, too, have some personal issues with which to deal. I'm not real comfortable writing what follows, but all of you have been tolerant and supportive beyond belief. I feel I should therefore let you all know what's going on.
I'm a little numb from the news I received today. Yesterday, my mother was experiencing difficulty in breathing to the point that she did not recognize she was in her own bedroom. Her pulse/ox was dipping to 84, despite the oxygen compressor pumping maximum output at 5 litres. Her BP was 198 over 130. We had her taken to the hospital. Mom is suffering from a "white out" lung, meaning it's full of fluid. She also has fluid building up around the lung, increasing the pressure on her heart, which has a failing left ventrical.
There is a procedure to extract the fluids, but the withdrawal of the bodily fluids would likely send her into shock. Since mom is so very fragile and weak, she would likely then be hooked up to a ventilator. Then the decision would be when to pull the ventilator.
The doctors' advice is to bring her home tomorrow, get Hospice in here, make her comfortable as possible, and let nature take its course. Hopefully, there are more weeks, maybe even months yet left.
It'll be a rough choice on when to return to Honduras. I know my sisters, even my mother, during her more sentient moments, will be pushing me to do just that. We all know we've done everything possible to micromanage and extend mom's life. She is a kind, thoughtful woman, imbued with angelic honesty and willpower that only time could wane.
Appologies again for bringing my personal issues into QC.
Our prayers, sympathies and best wishes flow to you, yours and her.
I know that peace will find you both in the light she has left in your spirit.
HardToLove
It is in Gods hands.
In the past, it showed you articles, instas and comments by those you follow automatically. Now you have to specifically click in the box THOSE YOU FOLLOW, and than click on comments, articles or Instas…
That's a PITA…. So I investigated, and found the following shortcut…. If you click on the TRACKING box at the bottom of the page (Just to the left of the INBOX) You go back to the original tracking of those you follow format of SA.
It automatically gives you Comments, Instablog posts, and Articles by just those you follow.
Unfortunately, it does not show you Market Currents, Select Stock Talks, Editors Picks. Most Popular Articles, Long Ideas, Latest Transcripts or the featured articles with pictures…. However, it does show you everything posted by the people you are following. That way you don't miss there posts….
I suggest SA provide the previous format version of their front page to people clicking the Tracking button.
But in the mean time, if you just click on the tracking button, you won't miss what I consider as the most important information on SA, the writings of the people you have taken the time to follow.
HardToLove
Sorry 'bout that!
HardToLove
biz.yahoo.com/prnews/1...
TNK reduced its div to $0.34
TOO is issueing around 15% more shares
I've established a database in OpenOffice and am entering the rates each day for Suexmax only. After a month or two, ought to be able to make a SWAG at various results, including a potential dividend change.
If someone wants other than Suezmax, let me know and I'll see if we can do something (I have to watch my time though - I'm still 3 weeks behind on SA articles and haven't booted my Linux for over two weeks now).
If someone knows a better source that's free, I'd love to hear of it.
HardToLove
heavy buying over the last couple of weeks with little movement.
Old adage "Volume precedes price."
They just went through a Reverse Acquisition
Their revenues for the last 6 months were only $157,000, against expenses of over $1.5million. Sales dropped 65%.
Their overhead went up 31.9%.
Their own opinion of their situation is:
"These factors raise substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern".
They have no plan, beyond a vague desire to borrow more money and/or (probably "and") dilute their remaining capital base.
They mention negotiating cheaper raw material costs from their suppliers, but I found this a laughable concept given their lack of sales. If anything, I suspect their suppliers are reading the same 10K and putting them on a COD basis.
I also ran across several references to problems with their product having a short shelf life.
This one has problems, real problems, and no discernable game plan.
If it does, i'm doubling up instead of just adding.
And they are screwing around with the reported numbers. There are revisions.
Today's numbers won't be released until 3:15 AM tomorrow CDT.
will post on change if one exists
globaleconomicanalysis.../
Heartening numbers for those looking for a *reaL8 change, not just an ersatz one.
HardToLove
Politics as usual is dead.
Dick Morris (townhall.com), who is as good an election handicapper as any I've seen, has the Dems losing control of BOTH the House and the Senate. I doubt the Senate, but then again, I haven't been traveling to the blue states like California like I used to, so maybe things have changed.
39 is the magik number for the Republicrats in the House, and I have them winning 45 right now (Morris is talking in the 50's, but then, he's also looking at the Dem leadership continuing to do dumb things, like blow a lot of resources on lost cause conservative districts where they benefited from a one-time mass brain aneurism on the part of millions of conservatives who voted anti-Bush last election.
Pelossi and her henchvermin probably WILL seek to erect a wall around their 39 guys, rather than simply accept the inevitable and save what they can. Morris thinks that strategy will cost them big in the election, and I suspect he is correct.
Finally, I would not discount the astounding gaff where Voldemort stalked out of his oval office on the final day of the Muslim holiday of Ramadan and announced his support for the building of a celebratory Mosque on the site of the 9-11 destruction. This is a gift to the Republicans beyond price when it comes to gathering motivated voters for them, and turning off even diehard liberal Democrats.
Look at how he defeated Mexico's Pancho Villa before going to France.
Interesting pre-entry history, our national leadership had decided that the "modern" war methodology, as practiced by those masters of all things martial, the French, for instance, was to NOT teach soldiers markmanship. Our Sec. of War was strongly against wasting money and time on that nonsense, and so were the majority of America's military leadership. The preferred method was mass bayonette charges.
Pershing was a sharpshooter, and when he got to Europe he was dismayed to discover that most of the American troops were being thrown into battle without EVER HAVING FIRED A SINGLE SHOT IN TRAINING from their rifles.
Sec. of War Newton Baker was a huge supporter of the concept of "Cold Steel". Pershing argued with his bosses (all Brits and French, we were latecomers and junior in the pecking order) to no avail. He became incensed by what he saw, and reported witnessing several episodes where troops would chase after individual enemy soldiers throwing grenades at them and ignoring their rifles.
Pershing and the NRA (Col. Libbey) eventually went around Baker and convinced Wilson that teaching the soldiers how to fire a rifle and hit something with it was a good idea. Having arrived at this epiphony, the Army discovered they lacked the knowlede to properly train their own enlistees, and the NRA was summoned to provide expertise and even instructors (pulled from the many marksmanship clubs around the country).
True story. Pershing was a decent enough General, though he had to cope with an inordinately stupid higher command and fellow crop of general officers.
It voted for George Bush (Sr.) as late as 1988.
Not to mention Gov. "The Terminator" Schwarzenegger.
Could go either way, depending on the cirumstances.
As for California being a Blue state, I would agree, it was much different back in the 80's, when Reagan was still alive.
Today its different. Democrat incumbents are sitting in 34 of the 53 House district seats. Only 19 Republican Representatives remain (these numbers were reversed back in the 80's).
California's districts are also less 'in play' than some other states. The advantages enjoyed by the incumbents in these districts shows a strong history - its hard to unseat an incumbent there. The demographics of the state have shifted steadily leftward for decades, although it is noteworthy that the ONLY House district not held by the Democrats along the entire southern border of the United States, from Texas on the Gulf of Mexico to the Pacific Ocean, is a single Republican district just east of Democratic San Diego.
There has been some talk among the Republican faithful of taking back a few California seats in the more moderate hinterlands, such as that lost by B1 Dornan when his competition wisely had her name legally changed to "Sanchez"... And I believe we might see as many as 3 or 4 seats of the big Democrat lead in California whittled away. Maybe more. I hope so.
So many things would be quickly improved with meaningful term limits. I'd give both senators and congress 4 years (eliminate the every other year congressional begging) with just 2 terms. And make it coincident with the presidential election. If a district cant find a solid newbie every 8 years, they either arent trying or are frozen in time.
And as a topper, I would like a 4 year ban on being a lobbyist (or consultant ala Daschle) when they leave office.
"Greenvironment signs cooperation agreement with Finnish defence group Patria"
www.pressemeldungen.at.../
They'll be helping with (seekingalpha.com/symbo... and distributed generation needs.
HardToLove
P.S.
They've been active a while. Doing a biogas project. Press release from April
www.greenvironment.de/.../
####
Here's a little fun, gut wrenching bit of info provided to me by my pal, Gary, the one-armed pizza delivery guy:
Cross the North Korean illegally and you get 12 years of hard labor.
If you cross the Iranian border illegally you are detained indefinitely.
If you cross the Afghan border illegally you will be jailed.
If you cross the Venezuelan border illegally you will be branded a spy and your fate will be sealed.
If you cross the Mexican border illegally you will be jailed for two years.
If you cross the Cuban border you will be thrown into a political prison to rot.
If you cross the United States border illegally you get:
1- A job
2- A driver's license
3- A Social Security card
4- Welfare
5- Food stamps
6- Credit cards
7- Subsidized rent or a loan to buy a house
8- Free education.
9- Free health care.
10- A lobbyist in Washington.
11-Billions of dollars in public documents printed in your language.
12-Millions of servicemen and women who are willing to--and do--die for the right to the ways and means of our constitution.
13- And the right to carry the flag of your country--the one you walked out on--while you call America racist and protest that you don't get enough respect.
One can either be an "illegal" or an "immigrant", but not both, at least, not simultaneously.
"Illegal alien" is the more accurate phrase, imo. What it lacks in PC-ness it makes up in correct definition.
He also made a big deal out of the Fact that "Once something becomes widely known", It ceases to function properly because people Start To Anticipate.
I did the same analysis and came to the same conclusion last year.
Just because its widely known does not preclude the possibility that it will function again.
You own Gold, you should add ETFs like SDS, BGZ and TZA.
Remember the Financial Arm of GM? GMAC
The way I understand it, it became Allied Bank.
will be buying more TZA in increments, 1/2 position if goes below $33 today.
Historically, I believe Sept is the worst month of the year with Octobers signaling bottoms.
"After years of political bickering, Taiwan and China have signed a historic Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement"
seekingalpha.com/artic...
www.globenewswire.com/...
HardToLove
The shorts are going to get rich soon, BUT they better be nimble, 'cause the Boxer 50 cent Barrier will be the wall.
biz.yahoo.com/bw/10081...
Not too late to get into this stock as well even though it has doubled. They have other proven, but "promising" to the FDA, devices which deal with cancer.
HardToLove
One more good whack from the UE or GDP stick should set that right.
Adding more TZA now ....
Somewhat related, what is your target for the 10yr bottom? 2.5%?? Lower??? I suspect that someday soon someone is going to wake up and realize that low rates are crushing conservative retirement ports and savings accounts. If Japan and Britain join the China nacho treasuries club, the game could change quickly. The St. Louis voice in the wilderness will become a chorus. I am hoping to time my change from TLT to TBT. Thoughts?
TB - Correct me if I'm incorrectly quoting you. I know you haven't made any predictions about how large a rally we can expect, but that is just my best guess.
So, I am planning load up on TBT in Q1 2011, when I think we could see the 10-yr yield drop as low as 2% with a rush to "safety." The rush will, of course, be in the wrong direction as is usually the case at tops and bottoms.
So, if I were to be pinned down on a target, I would stick with my initial estimate of 2.25% and assume that entering TBT anywhere below that mark should provide a long-term minded investor plenty of upside. For myself, I intend to wait until I see signs of a true bottom, blood in the streets, panic selling, and total capitulation. Then I expect the flood into T-bonds to be the strongest and the rates their lowest for many decades. Of course, that is all dependent on gaining at least some gridlock in Washington in Nov. I f we can't change the political course of this ship, we need to at least slow it down before more damage is done. And if neither happens, then I have absolutely no idea how bad things will get before we turn and I wouldn't expect the bottom to be made this soon as the Dem, should they stay in control, have a lot more damaging legislation that they would like to cram down our throats in the next two years if they can.
www.benzinga.com/etfs/...
I've been thinking we COULD see a sample of what's coming Q1 2011 as early as September, when Da Boyz finally lose the ability (or means) of keeping the Beach Ball Market inflated. Stim is about washed out of the nation's economic veins, and the hangover from that is likely to be painful.
Still, the setback could well resemble a normal correction, with a quick and vicious down cycle. I believe this will be strengthened by serious investors cashing in capital gains to avoid higher 2011 taxes, while corporations pull whatever they can from Q1 2011 forward into 2010 to also avoid higher taxes. Equities will get hammered by the sell-off, while lots of pundits puzzle over the "better than expected corporate profits due to one-time adjustments". CNBC will make a mantra of confusion as they note better than expected earnings from corporations, on the same day as their stock goes down.
Of course, forward guidance has already started to slump, frankly a bit quicker than I had anticipated (I figured the strategy would be to keep being upbeat until Q3 2010, and some companies HAVE done this).
Its still possible that the Regime will pull back from the brink and abandon plans to jack up taxes and push costly ideological goals like global swarming and health deform. Should this happen, all bets change...
But I don't expect that to happen. Geithner's recent strong support for tax increases indicates that such a deviation from dogma is unlikely.
The wild card will be the lame duck session. Incredible things might occur then, and that would surely derail any chance of a Christmas Present market. In that case, the Fall stumble could easily extend (past the elections) into a full-blown double dip.
IF the losers show some class and behave themselves after the election, I expect a Christmas Gift market followed by "reality check" January, when all the theoretical tax, rule and regulation changes hit the economy.
biz.yahoo.com/pz/10081...
am down around 40%, with limited exposure.
If software can deliver, there will be many, many women in line to use it, meanwhile, men will be happy campers too
(HUDRF.PK) is up 8.02%
(GDLNF.PK) is up 13.33%
(LYSCF.PK) is up 3.30%
(MCP) is down 2.19%
Already own the first 3, buying: (LYSCF.PK) and (MCP).
Adding more (HUDRF.PK) and (RWM).
Taking profits on (CRT), (HGT), (MARPS), (MTR), (PBT), and (SJT).
If so, the price should level into a rough plateau for the rest of the day from here.
One of these days this daily pattern will break. Either the down elevator will just keep dropping (looks like $15 is the initial goal) OR the buyers will extend the momentum upward to around $20 or so.
I am thinking that we are close to finding out, perhaps over the next month.
If everyone will think back to last yer, a big concern was the 99% complete Russian air defense system Iran purchased, lacking only the high tech S300 advanced interceptor missiles to complete their new setup. Russia has been vacilating on delivery of those, and to this day has NOT shipped Iran what they have already paid and contracted for. But there is ANOTHER way of accomplishing that same end, going neatly around the political costs involved with flouting the UN Security Council sanctions...
Russia has just completed setting up S300 batteries in Abkhazia, and linked them into their intergrated air defenses in South Ossetia. From this portion of conquered Georgia, Russia is well able to extend protection into what would otherwise be a hole in Iran's defenses.
The U.S. protectiveness toward Iran has slowly eroded, to the point where the Israeli Air Force was recently allowed to conduct a series of training exercises and simulated strikes against Iran from American Air Bases at Mikhail Kogalniceanu (near Constanta, Romania) and Bezmer, 50k from the Black Sea. The crash of an Israeli CH-53 helicopter during one of those exercises, killing 1 Romanian Captain and 6 Israeli special ops personnel, appears to have been practicing procedures needed in the event of an assault upon Iran's hardened nuclear facilities located in mountainous terrain.
Russia responded by extending their arc of air defenses.
Russia has also responded in the geopolitical arena, where they are now refueling Iran's nuclear program, another extremely controversial move that marks a real escallation in the war of nerves.
I am surprised that Israel was still counting on using the Georgia route for an assault - the Russian invastion and the public release by them of the original Israeli plans was sufficient to make this a failed plan.
This does NOT, however, mean that Israel lacks other alternatives, particularly if the American position has softened. Much more direct avenues of attack exist IF American assistance is more active and less passive.
As is often the case, the answers lie in Washington. Will this particular geopolitical problem be seized upon by our Regime as a handy crisis to gin up political gain in an important mid-term election?
Well, now. There's something to dwell just before bedtime.
China is not our "friend" and they have not only been actively growing their military might, they have been actively forging "friendships" and pouring money (mostly USD btw, go Walmart!) into our declared enemies - especially in this hemisphere.
Now couple their "new" might with the fact that China controls production on much of the world's microchips - INCLUDING the ones in our military's weapons and what do you get?
Ain't world peace and the "mighty" USA is going to be in a world of hurt if we are attacked and our weapons and radars all go dark.
Unless we truly are going to believe that friendship crap and extend it to believing that they have not included kill switches on the chips they sell to us.
Or, I'm just the queen of conspiracy theories and totally off-base about China, Russia and the like.
China is today what Germany was in the 1930s, a rising power eager to play "king of the hill" and knock the king off the hill.
My sister tells me that I've been talking about a war with China for about 15 years and asks me when?
But she's the one with two kids in what I call (for a reason) the "new World War II" (Millennial) generation.
Also, Mark put up another "Scariest Financial Site On The Web," Instablog. I thought his slant of, "How's The Family Doing," contained great insights.
Here is the link:
seekingalpha.com/insta...
Will the Economy perk up when the current contract expires in a few days?
Every friggin month the pundits comment on the drop in oil close to expiration and every month they are surprised when oil prices are higher with the new contract.
Friggin, picked that up playing poker.
Here's another one......_I_, tell me what you see?
a square ass?
TZA up about 7% from the 2:00pm low point
Insurance for tomorrow's before market UE claims report?
www.youtube.com/watch?...
www.reuters.com/articl...
HardToLove
truthingold.blogspot.c...
Maybe because *someone* knows that Greece is about to pop up on the fear screen again?
Mish seems to be forecasting such.
globaleconomicanalysis...
Things seem to be aligning for our September shudder as the delayed effects from all the missteps pile one atop the other.
HardToLove
People, even Greeks, rarely riot while on vacation, and virtually the entire continent shuts down for some of their mandatory 6 weeks of paid vacation during August.
September might indeed be more likely.
Still slow right now, too - I think we are running on a bank of backup servers.
Shortly after, seemed to come back.
During the issue, we could get to SA home but any author, comments, ... section navigation attempts got a
504 Gateway Time-out
nginx/0.6.35
HardToLove
(EOXFF.PK) up 62.94% Precious pennies in turmoil. Balkan gold, it somehow makes sense...
(GDLNF.PK) up 33.30% Insane situation. I am going to be taking profits tomorrow, this is nuts already. Up over 50% in a few days.
(HUDRF.PK) up 13.23% Strong, on no real news. Getting towed along by the Greenland Minerals passion play, I think, though without the big potential Uranium downside...
(GBG) up 8.12% About time. Good performer for me.
(GWMGF.PK) up 5.44% Continues to move in the right direction.
www.humanevents.com/ar...
Just a followup in support of Maya's previous humorous treatment of the topic.
www.nytimes.com/2010/0...
israel21c.org/20100817...
Election countdown:
2 unemployment reports (next one sept 3)
1 FOMC meeting (Sept 21)
I heard John Boehner was out shopping for a big-ass gavel. Unless new tea party reps dont agree to caucus with the repubs?
Dems will hold Senate compliments of Angle. Schumer could be next Senate Majority Leader as feisty oust Reid.
That should keep them all from getting into any further mischief.
Stay away for a little while. I'm holding my core, not trading around it until this wave of shorts quiets down again.
HardToLove
MHO,
HardToLove
Watching the usual action (BTW, shorts left the building @ 13:06) and we see *tons* of trades for 100/200 shares with a price difference of one thousandth of a penny.
I expect that later in the afternoon, some short will come back and see $0.7011 (or something similar) as an attractive cover price and there'll be a 70K share exchange occur. Of course, there will first be a one minute 2-3 percent spike and drop to see if any more stops can be triggered.
Even a small fry like me tries to make at least a penny or two on 5K trades and if not I wait.
HardToLove
This *ought* to boil your blood, regardless of political affiliation. The Federalism intended by our constitution obviously means ZIP to the current congress and POTUS.
globaleconomicanalysis.../
HardToLove
P.S. The Senate has it's own bill, S-1611 the "Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act".
Call your senator if you oppose this.
The SEIU has been practicing their intimidation techniques for several years already.
HardToLove
Scott Brown with all his naked political ambitions, likely would not vote against the Rs, especially if the repubs take control of the senate. He has been promised several sweet committee positions if the Rs take control. Kissing up to the Ds gets him nowhere.
TLT continues to rise as money flows into the 30yr bond. Many folks seem astonished that 2.5% looks like a good return, but few are in it for the return. The attraction is that it seems safe, its highly liquid and prices are appreciating nicely.
China is now a net seller of US treasuries and seems to now favor European bonds. Many years ago China needed maturing treasuries to create dollars to pay for US imports, oil and it was the reserve currency of choice for other trading transactions. They are no longer in that needy position, especially with their balance of trade with the US being massively lopsided in their favor. Trade alone is providing them with their dollar needs. Maturing bonds are giving them excess dollars.
China has a stated goal of the dollar not being the world's reserve currency in the future. Starting to bow out of bonds (r run) is a step in that direction.
Currently, the big buyers of treasuries are Britain, Japan and hedgies. Generally a bunch of losers who see notes/bonds as the lesser of evils. Interesting is that the big banks have apparently reduced their treasury holds by about 20%. Hmmmm
Low rates are helping Treasury by reducing the cost to service the debt. Last number I saw was it is "saving" $100bil + a year. Treasury seems to be doing what big corps have been doing. Rates are so damn low, may as well keep reselling debt (like a mortgage refi) and may as well tack on some more (new loc). Unfortunately, like the corps, they debt pile gets bigger and bigger.
TLT will continue its steady decline until something jerks it in reverse. I see very little chance of a soft landing. Things just dont happen that way. Only soft landing would be at 2% with the equity market in shambles. If that happens, I hope you are working the TZA and paying no attention to the TLT.
The probable triggers for a quick reversal (imo) will be near failure at an auction or the Fed without warning hiking to 1%. I believe a near failure is the more probable, but the likelihood of one or the other happening is rising quickly. The buyers are running out of powder quickly. Hedgies cant want much more -- 2&20 on a treasury portfolio = mass redemptions. Britain has to be running out of money and appetite. Japan has no clue what to do next to save themselves -- they could quickly change leaders (again) and stop buying.
When long bonds start going down, it will be a no warning event. If you plan to change from TLT to TBT, keep in mind that the TBT is 2x short. You will make 2x more going up than you did coming down.
The big question is ... when?
The next 10s and 30s will probably be auctioned Sept 15-16. The FOMC meets Sept 21. Watch carefully.
My plan is to close out my TLTs and place a moderate TBT position Sept 13th. If nothing happens, I will close out the TBT after the FOMC meeting.
I think your plan is right on and that's my only immediate concern. The nukes in Iran and the Israeli response seems to be out there too, but I've no real idea about what, when, where.
HardToLove
Excellent point on the nukes. I am uncertain what that would do to bonds and the market.
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60 in all. All 45 Democrats and Independents who were in office in 2007 voted for that version (they mustered 50 votes, but were stymied by the fact that the Senate at that time was under the control of the Republicans). In any event, the current thinking is that a lame duck, Democratically controlled Senate run by a leadership voted from power AND from office would have little motivation to avoid employing Rescission wherever they wish. This strategy was recently demonstrated and successfully used to pass ObamaCare legislation.
Cloture alone will drag this out for two months.
Rescission can only be used on budget matters. The Byrd Rules apply and no legislative action can get around them.
And I dont belive the Dems will lose control of the senate. So they wont do anything spiteful.
Freindly sidebet of some sort? (grin)
But I need a little help here. Can financial reporters really be as stupid as they seem or are they part of a vast conspiracy to delude us???!!! Case in point:
I saw a story on a popular financial site yesterday trumpeting The Mortgage Bankers Association report that mortgage applications increased 17% in the first week of August. The article continued, with strains of the Hallelujah Chorus in the background, about what a clear trend this is that we are solidly out of the woods.
Borrowing Freya's new word of the week, IT'S A FRIGGIN WEEK, YOU IDIOTS! Worse, if the reporters had a lick of analytical ability, they would have also noted that applications to buy a house FELL 3.4% -- the entire "gain" in mortgage apps was from people refinancing existing mortgages (either because they can reduce their monthly and/or they couldn't keep the house unless they re-fi'd.)
You understand my confusion. The media can't really be this stupid, can they?
Sheesh.
Since we have so little investigative reporting these days (no more "beat reporter" I guess) expertise in the area being covered does not develop. The focus is on deadlines, word count, snappy headlines, sound bites, and what's my next job gonna be if I can get the local award for my story.
Under these conditions, it's likely natural that the quotes are taken as gospel, or at least "good enough to print", and it's on to the "next big thing" in that tiny universe.
MHO,
HardToLove
They wear them, its the rage.
I guess Toyota, Honda, ... have to shut down their plants. That'll help the UAW.
HardToLove
you probably think I am in favor of unions ... I'm not. Im just in favor of teachers, cops, firemen. <g>
if the uaw is afraid of honda etal and cant compete, they should tell us now. that dog better not even think of coming back for another bailout.
tries on the TSX!
Is there any money multiplier for the US economy that I am missing?
seekingalpha.com/insta...
When the lemmings dive over the cliff, they will dump the stocks with the greatest liquidity, hence BGZ
"What goes around, comes around."
Advertizing will go where people watch, its a Money Game. The Liberal Media is learning this the Hard Way.
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