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OG's Quick Chat # 95 - 8/26/2010 163 comments
List of stocks mentioned in QC #94:
(AER), (CEVA), (CPST), (DOM), (EUO), (GDLNF.PK), (GELYF.PK), HGT), (HUDRF.PK), INTC), (LOW), (LYSCF.PK), (MVO), (PBT), (SBR), (SDS), (SJT), (SPX), (SPY), (TBT), (TIE), (TLT), (TMV), (TOL), (TTM), (TXO, (TWM), (XIDE)
Disclosure: SPXU, SDS, TWM
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
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This post has 163 comments:
"Have a greart weekend Gades!"
I know I've done the best I can. I also know there's a little more to go.
But a near $50.00 book! ...Induces laughter.
Thanks, buddy!
HardToLove
www.europac.net/media/...
Email Print
Mon, Aug 23, 2010 Feature Articles
By Michael Montgomery—Exclusive to Rare Earth Investing News
0
diggs
digg Share The rush for rare earth element mining projects in British Columbia, as was reported last week, is just the tip of the iceberg in this increasingly lucrative market. Mining companies round the globe are looking for economically feasible projects to cash in on a market that has reached an event horizon of sorts, where demand will outpace supply in the foreseeable future. From the ice bound north of Greenland, to the hot plateaus of Western Australia, many upstart operations may be promising.
U.S. Prospects
Rare Element Resources Ltd. (AMEX:REE)(CVE:RES) has been developing its Bear Lodge property in Wyoming. The deposit, which is still in pre-feasibility, is thought to have over 7 million tonnes of oxide resources averaging a grade of 3.6 percent. The company hopes to be producing by 2015.
They have also stated that their new form of processing can deliver 90 percent recovery. One process involves a water scrubbing process; the other uses chemicals such as hydrochloric acid. “It is not so much new technologies we are looking at, but the matter of getting the right combinations together for the deposits we have,” said Mark Brown, CEO of Rare Element Resources. Other rare earth minors have stated the desire to build a processing facility including Avalon Rare Metals.
Australian Prospects
Lynas Corporation (ASX:LYC) has been developing its Mount Weld property in Western Australia. Development of the mine has been completed, and the company has set a completion date for the processing plant for December 2010. The deposit has a high grade of rare earth oxides (REO), and at its expected full production will fulfill 11 percent of world rare earth market. The total figure is 7.7 million tonnes rare earth resources at a 12 percent grade, for a total of 917,000t of REO.
The company has reported increasing rates for its rare earth, especially since the reduction of quotas from China. “The Mount Weld Composition price for rare earths has risen a hefty 102% over the past month, to US$43.28/kg on an FOB China basis as at 23 August 2010,” as reported on Proactive Investors.
Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) is developing its Nolan project in Northern Australia. The deposit has total measured and inferred resource base of 850,000t of REO, and 13.3M-lbs of uranium grading 0.44lb/t U308. The company is working on a processing plant, and hope for production in 2012.
Metallica Minerals (ASX:MLM) is working on a scandium and cobalt deposit. The project is a joint venture with Straits Resources (ASX:SRL). “The combined Kokomo and Lucknow Scandium resource is now in excess off 2,000 tonnes of contained scandium metal (approximately 3,000t scandium oxide),” as reported on Proactive Investors. Scandium in a REE used in fuel cells, low weight aluminum, and high intensity electrical bulbs.
Canadian Prospects Outside of British Columbia
Commerce Resources (CVE:CCE) has been working on its Eldor project in Northeastern Quebec. The niobium and tantalum deposit in drill programs has shown a 1.72 percent Total Rare Earth Oxides, with niobium and tantalum mineralization that ranges from 1.15 percent up to 11.4 percent niobium, and 0.046 percentup to 0.21 percent tantalum. For Rare earth oxides the four most common in the deposit are, in descending order cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, and praseodymium. “Neodymium oxide constitutes nearly 22 percent of all rare earth oxides present in this zone and is one of the more sought after of the rare earths for use in super magnets and related applications,” stated the press release.
Crevier Minerals Inc, a private company jointly held by MDN Inc. (TSE:MDN) which has a 67.5 percent share, and IAMGOLD Corporation (TSE:IMG)(NYSE:IAG), are developing another niobium and tantalum property in Quebec.
“The inferred resource… and the measured and indicated resources, represents a total resource of 15.42 million tonnes grading 0.17% Nb2O5 and 252 ppm Ta2O5. The new estimate shows a significant 23.5% increase in the Ta2O5 grade for this category,” stated the press release.
With help from Assistant Editor Vivien Diniz
Questions about this article? Leave a comment below or contact our editorial team at editor@resourceinvesti...
went to hotel in shuttle, left hotel in stretch limo. Net positive around $15k.
One night was 88 degrees at 9 pm. We will never go there in Aug again.
Its found on the OTC, can't recall symb offhand. Its a future flier. I like the chart.
My (SDS) postiton I put on yesterday is getting stung.
Its also a game of lowered expectations. Last "recovery" at that same time, we were looking at 6-8% growth. So today we are looking at a reduction to 1.7%, and its "good news"?
Sorry it caught you leaning the wrong way though, Maya. I'm easing into (TWM) on the dips, building up toward an ultimate 10% max (which I will cash in sometime in Q1, if things go as planned). So far I am well up, but nothing wildly successful. I plan to go long Q1 2011, but not before. I will miss out if there is a Christmas Present, I'll not even be focusing on the time period between the elections and the holidays.
harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
The miners have not hedged for over 2 years now, so the underwriters of both puts and calls are the commercial banks. If the banker underwrote a call, he wants the price of the metal to decline.
If the banker underwrote a put, we wants the price of the metal to rise.
Thus you can plot the median price or the least amount of losses that the bank would undertake at various prices.
Today the options concluded and Adrian presented his final median price on both metals.
The median price for silver was 18.00, the price of which I indicated to you last night. In gold the median price was 1200.00 per oz
So you can see that the bankers today got hit pretty hard. Here is Adrian's wonderful graphics on this:
The first is gold: If the final price on gold today would have been 1200.00 then the bankers would have experienced a negative outflow of 34 million dollars (not including dollars taken in originally) For the first time in many years, the bankers had an outflow of 60 million.
The Median line between puts and calls
www.lemetropolecafe.co...
and now for silver's median line between puts and calls:
www.lemetropolecafe.co...
In silver, at the bankers optimum price of 18.00 the cash outflow was only 5 million dollas.
Instead with todays close of 18.98, the outflow was 15 million dollars or triple at the optimum price.
The banking cartel got stuffed today in silver as well as gold!!
...
In another stunning development for the first time in quite a while gold moved into backwardation on two consecutive days. Yesterday the backwardation from the August to Sept month was 50 cents .
Today it was 1.20 with the front month of August higher than the Sept. trading month. However you must be cognizant of the fact that August is a delivery month and Sept is a non delivery month.
I would like to see backwardation on the first 3 to 5 months to prove to me absolute shortage of metal and a possible default.
HardToLove
But almost ALWAYS a loss?
More there than meets the eye. Maybe my idea that the far smaller silver market is being used as a tether on Gold is bogus, but its one of the few scenarios that explains this odd phenomenon for silver.
www.marketwire.com/pre...
8/26, Goldstone Resources Halts Exploration Drilling
www.marketwire.com/pre...
8/27, Philip Cunningham responds to Goldstone news release regarding exploration drilling halt
www.newswire.ca/en/rel...
HardToLove
May I am getting tired of all the rose colored glasses out there. They may have a point, but it is very flimsy, at best. And it does give the PPT a little help, too.
www.zerohedge.com/
HardToLove
"We're not witnessing a bond bubble in the making, we're living in a statist nightmare".
Well said.
Screwing the poor schleps that got in on the way up or just the TBTF crew putting the Fed $ to work to prop up the market?
Surely (I know that's not your name! ;-)) the data this morning couldn't cause enough adrenalin rush to push bonds down, $ and market up?
However, it *is* Friday, maybe I'm premature ...
HardToLove
Personally, I'm seeing the sawtooth pattern I expected for August, and I believe we will see more of the same until folks figure out that QE2 will be no more effective nor lasting than QE1.
The game has changed, even the RULES have changed, but the public still thinks the American league is going to be putting its pitchers up to bat. Come the first actual game, surprises galore to those who have not been reading their memos.
Much shock and dismay will there be, when the billions flood forth from the Fed, enter the 2Bigs, and...
Stagnate.
The real ball is in the Regime's court. What new spending bills will Voldemort propose, and what will Pelossi put forth?
And what will the hapless Reid do in the Senate?
And how soon.
Time to quit worrying about what the little guy with the beard might do, and focus on the Regime.
Someone is working on the SA infrastructure today.
HardToLove
I see Bernanke is talking about buying equities now.
Lets see, if he buys up all the GM, AIG, and 2Big stock it could be interesting. How this fits in with the Fed charter is deeply disturbing, of course.
I think the QE2 promise has about run its course, the markets are in a plateau now. I would not be surprised to see some further upward action next week, though, depending on who figures they can best position themselves to sell to their new best friend at the Fed. Could this turn into a "rally", despite technicals, fundamentals and all logic? Sure it could, if the Fed actually does what they promise. And it could well see us clear through to Christmas, or even beyond, though I suspect the situation will cool off markedly after the elections.
How big will they grow the Fed portfolio? $4trillion? $10trillion? No outlandish number seems beyond them. We are in uncharted waters.
How sustainable will any gains in the equity markets be when the only players are DaBoyz and the Fed? Will this return faith to the equities, or just give us an even stronger signal that disaster lies ahead?
I'm staying buttoned up. This is too wierd for me to play. I'm keeping my commodity bits and my (TWM) hedge until something shakes out (though I have a moderate stop on the TWM).
I'll have my finger on the trigger though - Jack Arujian(sp?) on CNBC points out September is a traditional rough month for the market.
HardToLove
investorshub.advfn.com...
I'm puzzled that on Yahoo!, Investorshub (just found today - have to browse through and see more yet) and Investorvillage, no one seems to be realizing the effects of the shorting that is going on. Whine about share price without realizing that patience is needed.
I hate to go to Yahoo! and try to add my bits - the SNR (Signal to Noise Ratio) would bury it and be one of the things to light off my very long fuse.
Investorvillage is a pay site and I've yet to decide if it's worth it.
BTW, (CPST) up 2.92% today, saw some shorts hammer a few times and then what looks like either covering or fresh money driving the price up. Good clusters of volumes and some good size buys coming in (just now a 50.2K block trade up @ $0.6795).
Maybe somebody w/money is going to manipulate the shorts today?
HardToLove
www.investorvillage.co...
HardToLove
I've never bothered with that since I use Firefox.
HardToLove
Hitting Ctl+shift+R often fixes SA issues for me. I believe that command sequence forces the browser to re-load the page, ignoring the cache. At least it does with Firefox. If your using a Mac, use Cmd+shift+R.
I think Ctl+F5 does a similar thing with IE. So basically, it solves issues where SA has modified a webpage, but your browser is still using an older version of the page from its cache.
SA pushed a change a few days ago. I used the command sequence, and things started to work again. I don't know what the refresh command is in Vista or Windows 7...
Be sure to look up the command sequence with a direct reference to the browser you are using before executing it... I never use a command sequence blind...
Added (NVAX).
Please ship 500,000,000 Iowa eggs to Cramer!
Jeff Miller puts kabosh on HO:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Added tight stops on gold and silver.... by the way, anyone looking at Seabridge gold (SA) lately? Its up something like 16% in the past few weeks.
(PAL) is flat, and my other miners are all up other than (EDVMF.PK), which is not really a miner, which is down .68%
Overall that portion of my portfolio is up 11.1% over that period, mainly because I am overweight (SLW), with my second largest holding (GBG).
REEs are up over the same period, btw, about 12%, representing (GWMGF.PK), (LYSCF.PK) having a great day today, (MCP), and small positions in (GDLNF.PK) after taking profits this week, and (HUDRF.PK).
All my inverse ETFs, PMs, etc, have worked out swimmingly. My one albatross -- getting into TBT and TMV too early. Decided all clients were perfectly positioned except for those two ETFs so my wife and I went for a long hike in the High Country this morning. Came back to find TBT up 5 1/2%, TMV up 8 1/2%. Did I not say I needed to average down? Who's in charge here? Can't I leave for a few hours without missing a nice move like this? Anyone care to enlighten me as to why -- suddenly -- other people are beginning to notice that you can have the government fret over deflation while the real world is inflating -- or is there some other reason these two popped in my absence?
I'm not enjoying having to plunge into the substrata to find who knocked out an Insta.
Anybody here who takes the time to write an insta, please post here, or send along a SA email.
Reading Zero was a hoot today. Thanks for the heads up, HTL.
"Whose on first?" Joseph: Completely caught off guard today, I was.
Sprint down today? Weird.
So they now show content from the MEMBERS network as opposed to just your SOCIAL network defined by your tracking choices.
You can still see the old tracking choices if you hit the tracking button at the very bottom of the SA page, just to the left of the inbox.
The next question is why do you think they made that change?
We should probably be "Recommending" our instas - as well as "tweeting" and "facebooking" and "linking in" to geat the band.
I bet they would love it if we also "dug" everything, etc, etc, ad nauseum.
These things drive the math that earns them money from advertising, and bragging rights with the other major site op's.
They love it when comments and articles include the latest hot search terms, too. I would imagine they might prefer I also used the term "Obama" rather than one of my psuedonyms like "Voldemort", though of course that would also mean that we would have much more frequent visits from trolls that spend their days searching the internet for "enemiesofBarack" to do battle.
Who's gonna start the 'Renegades' Facebook page?
Most of us commenting in Quick Chat have been on SA for at least a year. One of my favorite contributors, John Petersen, emailed me a few months ago and was amazed how many new followers he was getting. He then learned that there was a shift in SA policy, to force all newbies to follow "selected" authors at the outset.
Many of us Quick Chatters actually helped SA through it's nascent stages. Often I was contacted for my opinion, as much for ideas, as for commentary about SA changes. One of the things I know they were working on, which has yet to show up, is that they wanted to create something like Quick Chat. So far, that has yet to happen.
One thing I would not be shy about is contacting SA. On the Home Page there are methods to do so, along with names of who is in charge of what department. I have found that SA is quite reponsive and professional when I have made contact.
I'm not sure about the "nagware." That doesn't happen when I sign on. Maybe because I've been on SA for some time now.
Right now, SA is going through an overhaul/update. I will be interested to learn/use the updates.
One more suggestion, if I may be so forthright, and that would be to go through top contributors like John Lounsbury, to see who he is following.
One thing I should give you warning about is that we rarely call elected officials by their proper names here. The reason we do so is to ensure that those who we refer to as "trolls" (SA members who just give thumbs down to every comment for anyone who disagrees with their political views) cannot find us by using queries of those names. Please don't be offended by the apparent disrespect; it's necessary.
The other thing about the QC is that even though we may sometime disagree on a topic, we always do so respectfully or in a kidding manner with no ill intent. We appreciate differing points of view on any subject because it helps us all to learn more by looking at things from all angles and perspectives. If everyone agrees on everything, we're not going to learn much from it.
QCs are meant to be safe, entertaining, and (foremost) informative. So, pull up a chair, sit yourself down, and make yourself at home.
We may not see repercussions right away, but this can't be good for the cost of food long term, and I am surely distrustful of a govt takeover of PBR as an example.
Lula resembles Chavez.
I wonder if Voldemort might try a version. After all, if its good enough for the Chinese...
www.alertnet.org/thene...
How to play it: buy long term puts on the Brazilian etf's?
I would not bet against Brazil just based upon this. It would be hard to count on.
Here's the link:
sweetness-light.com/ar...
Has anyone heard that a Greek Orthodox Church that was destroyed by a falling building at Ground Zero has had its petition to rebuild turned down? They had an approval for a much lower building, but decided to resubmit for a traditional building with a steeple that would have risen above the permitted level because it could obstruct the view of the Ground Zero Monument. That request was denied. Now the mosque, which is much taller, has been rushed through with all potential obstacles swept aside. What has happened to our country?
investorshub.advfn.com...
HardToLove
investorshub.advfn.com...
It's an excerpt of a BPC Group interview and has a link to the complete interview.
HardToLove
How would you play this?
seekingalpha.com/artic...
This article's call for a $2 handle seems over-ambitious to me. At this point I start reading the same old global warming model predictions which tripped up the short side last winter.
I'll not be going long right now, given my view that we are looking at a double dip come the winter, so I would agree with a short play, but NOT one based upon $2ng to succeed. Pricing closer to $2.40 might be more likely, although of course that is just a guesstimate.
Going short in the middle ground should pay off, though, for option players.
COULD prices go the other way? Yes, particularly if the Regime gets their collective heads unplugged and cancel their plans for a national socialist tax and destroy session in 2011. An economy which actually STARTS to recover could use a lot more NG, and upset this apple cart real quick. SHOULD the political plans alter drastically between now and Jan 1, shorts will have to be nimble to remain profitable. An early departure before the full force of winter hits might be in order.
Given the wild state of flux, I would NOT think of any trade involving this area as "fire and forget".
I am seeing the two once-linked commodities diverging onto very different paths, for many reasons.
As much as the existing models try to maintain that link, errors in the numbers they generate will result.
Add in that oil is international while NG is local and the ration is now about useless.
HardToLove
But maybe not for some time.
Dick Morris is a political handicapper to follow. His insights into the finale 10 days before an election makes sense, and could be very important in the macro results. As we have been witnessing with the dramatic (if troubling) pronouncements from Jackson Hole yesterday, the markets are teetering on the edge of a knife.
I believe it will soon be time to start making assumptions based upon a very different set of "objective political conditions" going forward. Downward performance and projections for defense and technology stocks like (RTN) and (HRS), for instance, might need to be recalculated. Companies engaged in the canceled Manned Space Program like Boeing (BA) and (COL) Rockwell Collins could see a change in fortune in a big way.
"Infrastructure" in the 21st century is not limited to just the surface of the planet.
Boehner standing tall and making with some interesting ideas?
That's different.
There are so many problems, especially at the state and local government levels, that I am having a hard time figuring out how any new Congress can do very much quickly enough to get unemployment down before the second half of the year. I also wonder still what the budget proposals will look like after the elections. I'm sure they have everything ready to push through once the elections are over, but they won't make anything public until then.
A government that doesn't want you to know what they are planning is a dangerous thing.
I DO believe that Obama will start out February 2011 with an active Veto pen - but there is an outside chance that, like Clinton in similar circumstances, his ego will not allow him to accept a full stop to his plans. Horsetrading might start to creep into the picture, which could make things interesting. IF the revolution is stronger than I expect, its possible that the Republicans will be in a position to overturn some Vetos... But I would not count on it.
As for the days between November 2 and January 20...
There is a reason why the lame duck is often considered the most dangerous beast in the political forest.
So where I am going with this? I think (again this is just a theory you can feel free to disagree with) that if/when there is a republican or at least more conservative makeup of congress, we will finally see "Mr. Across the Aisle" work his magic as he attempts to stay atop the surf board on the changing tide. If he has to sign things next year that he never would have signed last year, he'll call it being a realist and working with both parties. Here's the tricky part:
Come 2012 he will have positioned himself as the candidate of change who fought the good fight with the dems (when they were in power) and reached across the aisle (when the republicans gained strength). In other words he will have played three distinct roles and will don whichever mask he needs to as the new presidential candidate in 2012 in order to ensure that he maintains a base of power.
My theory won't ring true to anyone who believes the POTUS has been acting with singular purpose to promote the agenda he was elected on. I know a number of impatient and disillusioned liberals who assure me that they expected much more left in his on court play than they have seen. I attribute this to his being first and foremost a politician. He is Zelig. He will adopt the stripes of those around him in order to ensure he remains where he wants to be. If the electoral mood of the nation proves to be more conservative this fall as I think it will, presto we will see shades of this conservatism in the pres himself. That is my theory.
This does not mean he becomes a conservative by any means. His coat of many colors simply takes on new shades, it does not change completely. But for those who watch this sort of thing, they will see a change in hue. And most importantly, they will see him front and center trying to gran credit for things he never would have uttered in the 2008 campaign.
DM, you're description of Obama is accurate, and resembles Bill Clinton's first term when he realized that he would have to move toward the middle to make a second term. But here is the difference:
Clinton was shot down by Congress. They didn't go for Hilary's health plan, as an example. The country said" NO" to Clinton, and the congress listened to its constituents.
Here, we have the Dems (even those you wouldn't ordinarily consider progressives) that pushed thru these overwhelming (and awful) changes. I would not have lumped Harry Reid as a progressive prior to Obama's taking office. I'd not have put him in the same class as Nancy Pelosi, for instance. But, he succumbed.
Yet, he is back in the saddle and may very well return for another Senate term.
Same thing with Obama, at this point, it is far from clear that we won't have him for 8 years.
Politicians live for re-election. That is every politician's #1 priority.
If the Republicans run another lame presidential campaign, with a McCain type, it will make it even easier for the democrats to run Obama again.
So, yes, Obama can easily cross the aisle should the make up of congress change in November, and force him to work with the republicans.
investorshub.advfn.com...
HardToLove
Warren Buffett reportedly got out, but this is not the investment he understands best.
finance.yahoo.com/fami...
1. Present through Nov elections:
A. Increasingly desperate Democrats attempt to identify and issue sufficient bribes to the same voter base that swept them into office to insure a repeat performance. The recent teacher/public employee job bill is a good example. This went through the house no problem, and passed cloture in the Senate. Other versions, targeting similar groups, will also pass. Having solidified their hold on their core constituency, they will seek to expand the list to include large groups that are becoming restive, such as urban inhabitants. Aid programs will be rapidly cobbled together for cities to backfill budget deficits and retain large employee bases on the city payroll. State programs will be HINTED, but are likely to be delayed due to compexity, time constraints, and the fact that they are much harder to limit to likely Democrat voters.
B. Massive "Rebuild America" project will be announced, as an umbrella program under which the mountains of pork already authorized in the StimBills, ObamaCare and the various huge Budget Bills are combined with an all new wish list. Areas of the economy that already have large trust funds will be "included", such as highways, national airport funds, superfund cleanups, and various industries where pensions have been shifted from private to public responsibility. Funds from the underlying trusts will be admixed to create the seed corn for the new pork projects, whether the new agenda has anything to do with the targeted taxes and user fees which created the trusts or not.
C. FDR's bag of tricks will be revisited. National parks, highways, railways, and iternet access will be revamped. FDR's Conservation Corps will be reinvented and tasked with a multitude of repair and maintenance projects around the country, many of the jobs literally make-work. The Childcare industry will be subsumed en toto into the Federal Government. Job training will become a "right" of every American.
Despite all this, and more which I cannot imagine, I expect the Republicans to crush the Democrats in the coming elections. They will regain control of the House, and pick up 6 or 7 (outside chance at 8) Senate seats. Some are calling for a debacle for the Democrats in the senate, with them losing 10 or 11 seats, but I find that concept to be unlikely.
2. November thru Jan 20: The Lame Ducks invade Washington DC.
A. Any of the legislation listed above which is NOT enacted prior to the election will be enacted during the Lame Duck session. Sore losers among the Democrats, energized by the chance to use their massive majority power one more time before it vanishes in January, vote in the Liberal wish list.
B. Cap and Trade becomes the law of the land, via rescission in the Senate. The Republicans promise to repeal it when they take power in January, but if they do not reclaim power in the Senate, they will fail, and even if they did repeal it, the President would veto the repeal legislation.
C. Card Check and assorted programs much sought after by organized labor will be passed, again via rescission if need be. Again the Republicans will vow to repeal. Again they will probably fail, and even if they succeed, face a Presidential veto.
D. New trade legislation will be created deeding wide powers and latitude to the Executive branch to make trade policy.
3. Jan 1 - end of Q2: The Double Dip. Assuming the prior events take place, the nation will enter another recession toward the end of Q1, though later analysis may disclose that it actually entered recession in Q4 2010 or even earlier - or never left recession in the first place.
www.dailyfinance.com/s.../
The first victims of healthcare reform:
www.time.com/time/nati...
"Be careful what you wish for."
money.cnn.com/2010/08/...
Like the 1930s.
For essentially the same reasons (bank chicanery reached all time highs in the 1920s, until the recent go-around).
<IBM says this is no Garry Kasparov-beating gimmick. The company believes it has found the true Holy Grail of automated search: a computer that understands everyday human speech, and a system that it can sell to its clients.>
money.cnn.com/gallerie...
In other words some of the very things that AI would be expected to improve early on (like air traffic controlling, since dealing with a crisis requires higher level thinking thought to be resolvable by AI) would be subject to the imperfections of time management and "emotional" content (or at least perceptual noise) not unlike today's human components in these systems.
The closer we get to actually modeling intelligence, the less we will be able to predict about its actions. For a silly but pertinent example, think of Herbie the Love Bug. A car so smart it could drive itself. Yet it did not always drive where its occupants wanted to go...
Fascinating stuff, AI.
Nothing replaces a good accountant, but I found this website that really helps explain some of the issues and rationale to consider this.
Here's a snippet from the website:
<New Roth IRA Rules for 2010
Starting in 2010, the existing $100,000 income test for converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA no longer applies. Conversions that occur in 2010 will be able to have half of the taxable converted amount taxed in 2011 and the other half taxed in 2012. (On May 17, 2006, President Bush signed the Tax Increase Prevention and Reconciliation Act of 2005 into law. This tax bill included a provision dealing with conversions of traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs.) Since Roth conversions increase tax revenues, it seems unlikely that the previous income ceiling will be reinstated anytime soon.>
Here 's the link:
www.rothira.com/
Any thoughts on this are most welcome!
Coverdells are also some darn good options, but I also dimly recall they were recently degraded or attacked.
The BIG advantage is for those who can let the money grow and the earnings compound for a few decades. I helped setup these for my younger brothers and one of my nephews. None of them have a retirement plan through their jobs.
In my nephew's case it was a hard sale. When I showed him that just $25 per week would give him a nestegg of over $3million almost tax free by retirement, he finally agreed. The young all think they are going to live forever, of course.
www.nytimes.com/2010/0...
Having participated in several of these, I can say with authority that the attendees serve no such masters - pay their way to and from - pay for their own meals and hotel rooms - create their own signs, banners and supplies - and promote their own agendas, some rather odd, and many centrist rather than right wing.
Better this airhead should actually attend some of these events, and spend some time talking to the citizens...
Ah, but then how to "shape public opinion"?
Paul just laughed at the accusation that he was now a paid stooge for Soros, and promised to "...spend the money on a message Soros will hate". Given that Paul's message WAS anathema to Soros' ideology, you can only figure that Soros' dirty trick stratagem failed miserably.
Anyone who operates a publicly traded company lacks the ability to pick and choose every one of their stockholders. I imagine Murdock's reaction is the same as Paul's. I know my reaction would be: "I hope ALL my enemies put money in my stock - I should be so lucky". LOL.
We should start the, "Renegade Rescue."
I am hoping for a slightly different lame-duck session. Those incumbents tossed out, who couldn't get an honest job if they bought one (they can still become million dollar a year lobbyists; I did qualify it by saying an "honest" job), may indeed be bitter at being scorned. However --
Their peers who were re-elected by the hair of their porky little chinny-chin-chins know that their constituents are watching them like hawks, as will be the new members who know they were elected primarily because of the excesses of the incumbents. If these current members hope to retain or secure a committee chairmanship or a leadership role at all, I think they will have to show uncharacteristic forbearance. They won't like it, but it might be easier to say, "Mr. President, you understand I'm between a rock and a hard spot. Let's let things settle down for 6 months while I mend fences back in my home district," rather than "Hell, *I* escaped the voters' wrath. Let's ram these bills the people don't want down their throats while we can."
I say both outcomes are possible and right now its 50-50. Which way this cat jumps will depend on how big a scare these members get on the first Tuesday in November.
But the Democrats you mention as being elected by slim margins will have no hope of retaining chairmanships or overall leadership - those will all shift to the "other guys".
During the lame duck season, power will shift VERY strongly toward the White House. Politicians who, as you so correctly point out, will have dim prospects other than trading on their good relations with the government they are about to leave, will be very eager to please their prospective new benefactor. Bereft of any nagging wisps of concern about re-election and the opinions of their constitutents, their attention will re-orient like a magnetic compass on the nearest and largest concentration of political patronage.
This will be the earliest and best test of the concept that Voldemort will "do a Clinton" and modify his ideology to align with the shifting political winds.
I have based my investment philosophy upon the idea that he will NOT shift his stand much, if any. In fact, I will be surprised if this election does not push him further Left (or at least, unmask the poliitcal camouflage to reveal a corner of the hard core beneath).
seekingalpha.com/insta...
SmartknowledgeU on whether we have a bond bubble smartly asks the question.....is what we are seeing representative of rates a free market economy would set.
www.businesswire.com/n...
HardToLove
They are experimenting with everything but have not decided on a standard yet.
The Buses ferrying people during the Olympics were All Electrics.
HTL - As I recall you also are a FireFox user. How have you dealt with this change?
One thing to try is logout, restart your browser, and log back in.
Before that, try clearing the cache and maybe temporary files.
To mail SA, you can use your normal mail program and send to support@seekingalpha.com
HTH
HardToLove
Funtalk, fantastic chart, growing rapidly, sells Cell phones.
FTLK, seems like the Chinese sellers treat Cell phones like commodities. They break, go buy another.
FTLK gives warranties and provides repair service themselves.
IMO, ye, just a bounce in an oversold market.
Looks like the REE situation is finally creeping into the mainstream media. I fully expect it to jump to the forefront with some headlines like:
>> "No Big Screens or Computers This Christmas". Sony and other major manufacturers are closing factories and laying off workers worldwide due to lack of key raw materials which China is stockpiling while the rest of the planet goes without. Although still available on the open market outside china at prices hundreds of times higher than the official "list price" set by the Chinese cartel which controls 97% of the world production of Rare Earth materials, the prices are so high that manufacturers cannot compete with the Chinese companies still making these items.
Whatever stock appears in the stores this Christmas will all share one thing in common: They will all say "Made In China". <<
LOL, or something to that effect. Until Apple closes up shop and the whole planet gets a wake-up call, it just doesn't penetrate the fog. Shoot, even the dumbest dinosaurs evolved a second crude brain so that they could react to something biting them on the butt BEFORE they died from sheer stupidity.
Ree's showing moderate strength this morning.
Gold/silver miners are doing well overall, up slightly.
(SLW) is up .69%.
(TWM) is up 2.13%.
I'm making good money so far today, we'll see how it goes.
Amazing story about China's banking crisis - some wild numbers thrown around about American tbills - and just maybe the top central bank governor in China is now a political defector?
A must read, though who knows how it will all shake out?
Thanks for the offer. I tried to reply to your message but the button wouldn't work there either. So, I'm putting it up in the only way that still works for me: comments.
Hopefully I'll get back the ability to post a QC again before we need it in again in a couple of days. Here is the list of symbols along with the intro paragraph I usually use. You can make any changes to the intro you deem appropriate. Thanks again!
OG has asked me to take over responsibility for the Quick Chats so that she can sort out some personal things. OG will be back with us soon after her hiatus.. At that time she will resume posting QC Instablogs. Until then, I will be your host. Please be respectful and enjoy the liberty of this space.
List of stocks mentioned in QC #95:
(ARU), (BA), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (GWMGF.PK), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (HURDF.PK), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
If you'd prefer, I can copy the last comment into the new insta and create the comment here with the link to the new one. However you would like to proceed. I'm just grateful for your offer.
www.blacklistednews.co...
HardToLove
A = A, y'all.
www.dshort.com/
HardToLove
P.S. read the article following that one too, about revised earnings estimates and whether or not the market is currently overvalued.
I like the Growth Index, and in particular I like it because it has been developed to utilize the current data set works on a logical base which still works. I trust it over the S&P predictions, which I feel are moving in the wrong direction altogether.
I share the author's skepticism about 2011, or even the near term Q4 results.
Drawing on some scrap paper my own rough curves (hey' I'm a graphic artist, its what I do), it appears we may be near a QI low, which will soon reverse course, resulting in some really nasty S&P numbers over the next 3-6 months...
newsblaze.com/story/20...
But it's a tight race.
news.blogs.cnn.com/201.../
HardToLove
Also, great (link to) charts above! Thanks.
Alaska should still pick the Republican, but it will stay close right up to the end.
I have increased my estimate for Repub. gains in the US Senate from 4-5 to 6, maybe 7. Some handicappers go as high as 11, but they are really ambitious.
On my Vista laptop, I can't send a SA email, nor do I see the tool bar. I have to open up any article, then up pops the tool bar at the bottom of the page. I tried to write OG a SA email yesterday, accessed Inbox, constructed an email, but Send was stuck.
I don't use Mozilla on either; have MSN as my default home page on both puters. (You can tell by this I'm not a puter geek!)
Maybe someone else should start the next QC Insta?
No after hours action.
If so, where?
####
Toe in the REE pond today with Molycorp.
Overall, and after a looooong conversation with my broker, I am going to stand pat, and not buy anything in the brokerage account until at the earliest, the middle of the fall season. Not going to be real aggressive with the gamer account either.
Here's a key point, which I believe Triple and others have been making. If the republicans gain control of the House in November, I will be buying the next day. If the blue dog dems somehow maintain control, I will be shorting the market.
Following are some other points discussed, not priortized.
Of course, if Israel decides enough is enough and bombs Iran in September, then I'm plunging into oil stocks. Is there something sneaking around about this I've been oblivious to during my extended trip? (Note: I was in Honduras for two months, Eric)
All the negative thoughts about housing, for me, are beginning to become more market related, than nationally related. I was beginning to see this months ago. Outside of Phoenix, Case Shiller has housing on a rebound in cities like Mesa and Glendale. Saramento is up huge in valuations, and San Francisco has also improved. Of course, there still is Chicago, and other markets, which will continue to slide. Broker said there was an article today on page two of the WSJ (though it could have been The Financial Times?)
So we have some improvements in some areas where KB Homes have been built, and also in areas where Wachovia/Wells has a lot of mortgages underwater. QE2 may add further help in these markets that are apparently rebounding. The big point from all of this is that "sytematic risk" in housing is off the table. What the government should do, according to my very conservative broker, and this is contrary to my innate beliefs, is to increase the expired tax break of $8500 to $15000. Clear the inventory as fast as possible.
Here are some sectors that are doing well over the past couple of quarters:
Farming (thanks Russia!)
Airlines
Exports (although recent numbers indicate a pullback)
Advertising agencies
GM and Ford auto sales skyrocketing in China. Domestically, Ford is NOT trying to meet demand with their popular Escort and Escape models. Sales in those models are on the upswing, and Ford has decided to let the dealers scream for inventory, rather than over produce.
Broker expects oil inventory to build out for the rest of this year, but long term, oil is a must have in any portfolio.
Teachers' pensions are growing logrhythmically, putting a stranglehold on many states. Expect the consolidation of school districts to reduce administration costs to the district's taxpayers. The education bill (in the House right now?) is merely a subsidy that forces states to commit to spending for two years, exacerbating, putting off the pension problems.
All in all, it seems like we're still in a period of volatility, and this will continue for a long, long time. Interest rates are going to remain low for at least three or four years. Inflation is far away. China will continue to gain in dominance. Sooner or later the dollar will wane, but I expect later than sooner.
Heavy Insider Sales at IPI: 2 1.2 million blocks on the recent runup due to the POT offer.
www.intertanko.com/tem...
HardToLove
HardToLove
Gold is up, and (SLW) is up 1.79%.
Oil is up slightly, and my RT's just edged higher as well.
Markets were down, but have reversed course (slightly positive now) due to the Consumer Confidence increase. Why this surprised I really don't know, after the Fed promised their new policy of "QE forever, and yes, we're going to buy equities too", what else would we expect? Over 50% of all consumers are now dependent on government handouts, so news of more pork and gravy SHOULD be greeted by jubilation from the proletariat masses.
Interesting that the markets are responding AFTER the very predictable news, but were in freefall before. The predictive power of the markets seems to be severely compromised - and also appears to be reflecting the profoundly low volumes and lack of retail investor participation. The more its all about Da Boyz, the less its about the American economy...
seekingalpha.com/artic...
I see nothing to change that.
HardToLove
www.reuters.com/articl...
But hopefully not today.
Got me so fired up that halfway through writing a comment I decided it deserved an Instablog instead.
Lord, deliver us from well-meaning numbskulls...
FinReg has now been with us several months, and I'm beginning to see its Catch 22 core.
I'm not one of those folks who lives on credit cards. Fact is, I pay them off each month, and have for years. They are there for my convenience, not so that the banks can get rich...
So imagine my incredulity when I start getting notices from each of them that my credit limits have been reduced because I have too much credit. NOT that I owe too much, oh no, but that I have too much credit available.
So OK, I think at first, I never use those high limits anyway...
Then a month goes by, and I get ANOTHER notice, same logic, same result...
Another month, ANOTHER notice...
Vicious downward spiral.
Far as I can tell, its a simple forumula:
FinReg = Tighter Credit Standards, then:
FinReg + Tighter Credit Standards = Reduced Credit, then:
Reduced Credit = Lower Credit Score (this happens as a result of all that went before), then:
Lower Credit Score + FinReg = Further Reduced Credit, then:
Reduced Credit = Lower Credit Score (and by this time, everyone sees the pattern).
Now, I have no yen to borrow money, I'm past that nonsense, but expanding this odd phenomenon outward to the rest of the country, it starts to eplain some things...
Hard to see how a consumer-driven economy will show anything but a large crater when the rules are rigged to penalize you for NOT borrowing, and to make sure eventually that you CAN'T.
Catch 22. Minderbinder would be proud.
Quick Chat # 96:
seekingalpha.com/insta...
has the symbols from QC # 95 as provided by Mark Bern.
Here's an article on Dan Loeb's letter to his hedge fund particants, the whole system is rigged:
finance.yahoo.com/tech...=
HardToLove
I'll provide a link to see if that helps, OG: (It worked, for me)
seekingalpha.com/insta...
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