Seeking Alpha

Mark Bern, CFA's  Instablog

Mark Bern, CFA
Send Message
Mark Bern (formerly K202) intends to continue writing solo and has shed other work-related relationships that required anonymity. CPA since 1990 a CFA charter holder since 2000. He has a bachelors degree in Business Admin. with a concentration in Economics. His experience includes both private... More
Back To Mark Bern, CFA's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (100)
Track new comments
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5258) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The last comment on QC # 111 was made by Tripleblack:

     

    OK, finally came to some conclusions vs precious metals and 2011.

     

    First item, a pm we used to talk a lot about, palladium... Currently over $600/oz, well above my old goal for this year of $550. (PAL) has been good, hasn't it, Maya? Anyway, I am targeting palladium to hit $800 next year, and that could be too conservative.

     

    Silver is in a groove, and once again the mountain of silver shorts are piled on its back like Everest. Even so, I see the "other" pm hitting $35 in 2011.

     

    Gold is still subject to its fiat masters, but they have been letting the leash out a little of late. Expect another up year for the yellow stuff, to $1550 (but not as high as GS is projecting).

     

    REE's are going to become the "new" metal asset class in 2011. I see those prices as ready to run, with some high prices not seen before for the more "common" rare earths (while some of the more "rare" heavy rare earths will not enjoy near the price growth, though some will remain quite costly from scarcity rather than dynamic market demand).

     

    Tungsten will quietly continue to grow, with perhaps a 30% upside.

     

    Long: (BPMSF.PK), (EOXFF.PK), (FRMSF.PK), (GBG), (GDLNF.PK), (GPRLF.PK), (GWMGF.PK), (HUDRF.PK), (KGILF.PK), (LYSCF.PK), (MCP), (MLLOF.PK), (MXOM.OB), (NATUF.PK), (PAL), and (SLW).
    25 Oct 2010, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Triple I know you are holding some that also mine uranium, and I think that is going to be a winner in the next 18 months to two years. Also, ag. Those are two areas getting my attention the way gold and silver did in 2007. I also like nitrogen products, not just potash. 2007 is when I really got into the pm miners and holding physical.
    Just sayin.
    25 Oct 2010, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely, I am also looking long and hard at Ag. Still trying to work out a strategy there, though I agree, potash will be a performer (almost without exception). I had promised some new targets for the pm's a few weeks back, so here they are, and I intend to keep a base of at least 5% of my portfolio in PM's, plus 5-15% in industrial/base metals (more on those later, still trying to figure out copper).

     

    Uranium is undergoing a political "rebirth". Until recently the strong prejudice against nuclear power in some of Europe and among the warmist infrastructure had suppressed its use, but that situation is in flux. As the global warming fraud has unraveled, the new approach is less 2 dimensional (warming uber alles). Strong support for a mixed basket of green concepts is coming on stream, and the achilles heel of the movement (24/365 power generation and level loads from a capacity base that can sustain modern civilization) is now laid bare. As France (of all places) has demonstrated, the answer CAN be nuclear power. Without SOME sort of power source which can run even when the sun doesn't shine, and the wind doesn't blow, there are some large problems keeping the juice flowing. LOL, I recently had a surreal conversation on this topic with one of my more green relatives... When I asked her to tell me what percentage of generating capacity storage our electric utility had available, she guessed "50%". She was dumbfounded when I informed her that the real number was "zero". She had entered the conversation convinced that all we needed to do was build sufficient wind turbines (plus some large solar farms "out west somewhere") to shut down all the fossil fuel and nuclear facilities.

     

    Total capitulation to this reality is unlikely to be achieved (deep prejudices against this technology are probably beyond redemption among the furthest reaches of the enviromentalist movement), but the moderate middle has already begun to swing to support for the nuclear option.

     

    Thorium and uranium will both enjoy a growth spurt. Indeed, (GWMGF.PK) will be producing thorium in quantity from its new South Afrikan mine, and (GDLNF.PK) will be digging out rich uranium ore along with their REEs in Greenland, if Greenland's new government will change their mining laws.

     

    I was in a nitrogen investment about a year back, I'll dig up my notes and see what the deal was. As I recall it is a strongly cyclical business, though, so it takes timing and a strong stomach to stay in. Recent innovations in gasoline recipes have been featuring the addition of nitrogen (it actually cleans the valves of internal combustion engines), btw. Its also coming into common use as a superior method of inlating tires.

     

    25 Oct 2010, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    The big rip off is nitrogen in tires. It doesn't last longer than air, it has to be replaced, because your tires leak no matter what you put in them. Air is free. The nitrogen cost $40.Here's a link:
    articles.moneycentral....
    25 Oct 2010, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Here's Zero Hedge on how to make a quick 11% *(Really???)
    www.zerohedge.com/arti...
    25 Oct 2010, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Holy frijoles, here's the link to the POMO calendar:

     

    www.newyorkfed.org/mar...

     

    I suspect he's onto something. Here are the key dates when the Fed is going to "invest" $38billion (from "earnings", so its not counted as new QE, oh boy...):

     

    October 15, 2010 October 18, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2014 – 9/30/2016

     

    October 18, 2010 October 19, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2016 – 8/15/2020

     

    October 20, 2010 October 21, 2010 Outright TIPS Purchase 1/15/2011 – 2/15/2040

     

    October 22, 2010 October 25, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 4/15/2013 – 9/30/2014

     

    October 26, 2010 October 27, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 2/15/2021 – 8/15/2040

     

    October 28, 2010 October 29, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 4/15/2012 – 3/31/2013

     

    November 1, 2010 November 2, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 4/15/2013 – 9/30/2014

     

    November 4, 2010 November 5, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2014 – 9/30/2016

     

    November 8, 2010 November 9, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2016 – 8/15/2020

     

    These bastards will turn me into a day trader yet!
    25 Oct 2010, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Regarding uranium, suggest bringing up a (DNN) chart and see how well that's performed over the past few months. Really nice run, which I did not latch onto.

     

    I agree with you Trip, but never viewed REEs as their own asset class like gold is becoming. Interesting take. Kind of like SA contributor, Stephen Leeb's, take on gold. Anybody notice how Nova Gold (NG) has done recently? Wow. Another fav, New Gold (NGD), is on the move, too.

     

    Mark Anthony must be doing cartwheels about the Palladium surge. (PAL) has shot up, but not like I thought it would. Wondering if da 'Boyz have shorts on palladium like they do silver. I'll be adding more PAL tomorrow.

     

    Guns: The sorrowful news arrived late this afternoon. I will be traveling to Ohio, Thursday. Maybe we can hang this weekend? I'll be calling you when I sort out my schedule. (Bro-in-law still in hospital. "Should" be home by Thursday. Still no diagnosis.)

     

    Figuring the post-election sell off storyline will have a lot of support from the under achieving institutional houses chasing performance. With the air pouring out of the dollar, the stimuli coming, housing potentially bottoming (weakest factor), the financials potentially bottoming, continued bottom line beats by the biggies, I expect we're good to go for at least the next six months. Especially if the financials begin joining this (fraudulent, whacked out, manipulated) parade. This view could change dramatically if newly elected republicans stifle stimulus, which I think they should.

     

    2012 is the year I'm worrying about.
    25 Oct 2010, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Obfuscated correction! I meant about the sell off story line will have a lot of support from the viewpoint that the markets should not tank as much as some have mused.

     

    Could be a great time to load up.
    25 Oct 2010, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    LOL, yep, (DNN) is one of those stocks I was in (and watching it steadily erode) for a while, then finally sold the remainder...

     

    Just in time for it to turn around.

     

    Maybe this time I can catch the tide going out. I never removed it from my watch list.

     

    Oh, REEs are NOT an asset class right now, heck no, they are just barely out of the baby market (boutique) class. I'm just predicting that they will be. IF some of the more out-there research (exotic power systems usting exotic rare earth metals in large quantities) makes it out of the labs and into the factories, some amazing things could happen. Even if they don't, we are looking at a real supply crunch even IF (and its a big if) China backs away from its current cartel/industrial blackmail plan using REE availability as their big club. We are now learning that China's REE mines are going to be running dry in no more than 20 years (at current rates of consumption, and the trend lines are all pointing steeply upward).

     

    This is a 2-tiered story: REE deposits which are readily exploited, with nearby infrastructure and few political encumbrances...

     

    ...And other deposits in more remote locations or with political problems (like laws against uranium mining, or just layers of anti-business regulations).

     

    Investment opportunities will abound in both groups, and over a long period of time. I'm going to be spending a lot of time on this topic in the future, and I've created an insta about this topic (my first blog on SA).

     

    (Maya, I realize you KNOW all of this, but I'm trying to get data out there to the group.)
    25 Oct 2010, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    OMG! Are you kidding me? What you have brought to Chat about REEs is nothing short of beyond exceptional. I've learned a lot from your studiousness.

     

    You should be on CNBC. They've taken on yacking about REEs during the past few sessions, clumsily so. You should be standing there, next to the Fast Money desk, as an expert. Completely blown away that they only concentrate on Molycorp and Rare Earth Elements. They are clueless about other REE mining companies out there making progress. (Maybe there's some rule about them talking about the pinkies?)

     

    What I learn everyday here in Quick Chat, the comments and related Instas us 'Gades put up, far surpasses what I learn everyday listening to CNBC, FOX, or Bloomberg. It's not even close.

     

    It's because of you guys I've learned how to interpret charts, nascent knowledge as it may be, even make a decent prediction or two. Get lucky here and there on some ideas. Maybe, in the last Insta, I was a little *large* on writing about how I believe the overall bearishness from our group needs a little shaking up. I apologize for that.

     

    So, Trip, where's the link to your Insta?
    25 Oct 2010, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    25 Oct 2010, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    TRIPLE

     

    AS YOU KNOW I AM NEW TO THIS, To get my foot in the door any recommendations like an ETF if one actually exist

     

    Thanks in advance to help a novice out
    28 Oct 2010, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Aussie REE Arafura halted trading today, due to an offering coming. Their mine is expected to be up and running 2014. They're raising cash to accomplish this goal. Wondering how much of this offering China will be buying...with US dollars.
    25 Oct 2010, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    This trading halt action is quite common in the Australian markets, though if it extends for too long, the investors get restless. Greenland (GDLNF.PK) used this for several weeks when news leaked that the Greenland govt. was shutting them down (turned out it was not really true, and they DID end up with the ability to conduct drilling and testing on their deposits, even though the prohibition against Uranium mining was still a problem for them). The fact that American markets and companies rarely halt trading like this should not fool investors - things are indeed different "down under".

     

    (ARAFF.PK) was down 10.53%, to $1.36 per share, on the news today, on extremely heavy volume. This is also normal, when the AX exchange halts trading, the ADR's on the US markets continue to trade via the pink sheets. Though this is an "incomplete" valuation (the bulk of their capital base is locked up in stocks which cannot be bought or sold while trading is halted in their home market), it is a very good guide as to what will happen when trading resumes.

     

    This is the official announcement in Australia:

     

    www.tradingroom.com.au...

     

    www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Arafura Resources Ltd. is in talks to raise funds for its A$1 billion ($964 million) rare earth project in Australia after China capped exports of the metals used in hybrid cars and laptops this year and prices soared.

     

    “With the outlook of the market, the robustness of the project, we have every chance of raising the money,” Chief Executive Officer Steve Ward said in an interview in Perth. “The money will come from a combination of sources from all over the globe. It will come from debt, equity, maybe some financial instruments, and maybe some involvement with some customers and some raw-material suppliers.”
    25 Oct 2010, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    The more I look at Arafura, I'm thinking that might be a real buying opportunity. Raising $1billion is a tall order for a $300million company, but their timing is good, and the quote makes it sound like they are confident they can do it. I like the sense of urgency, frankly.
    25 Oct 2010, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Did you catch my comment earlier about the GS prediction that the Fed would put $2trillion into QE2, $100billion at a time? This is causing me to re-evaluate my vision of the American scene for as much as a year out. This isn't turning me into anything like a bull, but I am going to be sticking my turtle's head and feet out again. I've been accumulating in my core mining and oil investments, and now I'm going to look to fill a few more categories (slowly). I am still VERY nervous about the chance for disaster from several sources, with the first being the Lame Duck session of Congress. Should we dodge that bullet (Cap & Trade), I feel we will be in a position to see better what's coming in the immediate future.
    25 Oct 2010, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Time to put the winter cover over the jacuzzi!
    25 Oct 2010, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I did. Made me think back to the $1.5 trillion, that's gone off the US balance sheet into some black, dark pool, irrevocably retrieved.

     

    But it also made me more bullish.
    25 Oct 2010, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. Keep in mind that the lame duck Senate will attempt to pass twenty spending bills in as many days. One of those will be the $2T omnibus spending bill to keep the government running as they never saw fit to produce an actual budget. Cap-n-Tax will likely not get any traction in the Senate during the lame duck session which makes it more likely that the EPA will act on this. That being said I wouldn't look for that until next year some time IMHO.
    26 Oct 2010, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Oh, no, the jacuzzi is GREAT in cold weather. Me and those japanese monkies love this sort of thing...

     

    And we still have a lot of decision points coming up. I'm keeping my turtle shell on for the duration, at the very least until Lame Duck season is over. If we can get past the danger of cap and trade legislation (which is of course different from installing essentially the same thing under the guise of a presidential directive issued to the EPA and the DOE), I'll loosen up a mite more.

     

    Then comes the new Congress, and how they are going to treat with the Fed, the White House, and whether or not the Democrats hold the Senate. Lots of scary variables still floating around.
    26 Oct 2010, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Have you looked into (MEA) Metalico? Metal recycling and lead fabrication company. Just announced a big jump in earnings and volume. One that I am watching for base metals. Looks like a link to the battery guys, if I'm reading it correctly.

     

    Those looking for some iron ore/steel action might consider (GNI), which I hold in my mother's account and a 401k. It pays a high 9.35% yield (royalty trust based upon iron ore deposits). I consider it both a commodity play, and a high yield investment. They just had a great quarter...
    25 Oct 2010, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Metalico I got into on a week long, maybe month long trade, waaaaay back. Definitely in the QC archives. 'Nother darn stock off the radar. Thanks.

     

    My problem is that I was, how can I say this without being cocky, way ahead of the game in so many stocks. Humiliates me that I got out before the gains. Case in point is that I believe I was the first of our group to go hogwild investing in GWMGF, then bailed, only to get back in, after taking a big loss. That's why I'm out loud angry bitching that buy and hold is NOT dead.

     

    I've written here and there that I really don't know or understand what buy and hold means anymore, time frame wise.. And for that matter, I am clueless to what being "long" means anymore, too.
    25 Oct 2010, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    I remember. I give you full credit - your talking about REEs got me looking into them originally. I found the Greenland companies (GDLNF.PK) and (HUDRF.PK) at that time. Before, I was clueless.

     

    I came within a whisker a hundred times of dumping (GWMGF.PK) when it was selling for $.14 or $.15. Several people questioned me about it on SA, or suggested I look at Lynas (LYSCF.PK).

     

    The "China is building a monopoly" was always a compelling narrative, but there was no matching timeline (as there would not be, China controlled that as well). If China had not taken action to sew up the market and create their pet cartel, we'd STILL be marking time and wondering when one of the others would crank up an actual, fully intergrated and competitive operation. So don't beat yourself up too badly!

     

    Its still REAL early on the curve.
    26 Oct 2010, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    As for "buy and hold", my understanding of that is that investments are made for decades, with ultimate disposition determined after retirement - or as a result of rebalancing a portfolio to be extremely conseravtive so that it yields enough income. This in an age when major corporations VERY rarely failed, and where the perception was that daily variations in the markets were something beyond the comprehension of mere mortals. We were all suppossed to leave stock picking to the professionals, and invest in mutual funds anyway, and hold THOSE investments forever, too.

     

    Then came the dot com bust. I managed to avoid that disaster, though I was hot and heavy into the Nasdaq miracle like everyone else at the time. I had an actual epiphany while driving to an appointment (I was a corporate executive at the time), listening to a radio talk show focused on financial matters. The xperts were giggling and recounting their vision of the immediate future for lots of tech miracle stocks. The Nasdaq was going to 9000, and the DOW to 20,000, and this stock was going to $200, and that one to $110...

     

    I found myself thinking what idiots they were - with their outlandish claims, and preposterous projections about the valuations of companies with nothing on their balance sheets except a web address...

     

    And then it occurred to me to question how smart was I, who was INVESTED in those idiots! I called my wife and told her to sell everything, immeidately. We fought about it, at the time, and afterwards I had friends who thougt I was nuts when I tried to convince them to pull in their ambitious investments.

     

    After the crash came, I lost some of those friends - after they lost most of their nest eggs.

     

    We also had Enron, and many others - major, giant companies that just went poof. Buying and holding those stocks just augered you into the ground, of course.

     

    I would very much hope that a period of peace and stability can be brought to our markets - and that I can once again pick some stocks, make a plan, and stick to it (and go back to trading stocks on more of a desultory, weekly basis rather than daily, as I do now).

     

    It might be that IF we follow the Fed QE2 plan (and IF it is truly as large as GS thinks it is) that we will see, finally, ENOUGH raw cash flow into the economy to actually jump start the machine. Listening to the news, its clear that many of the talking heads confuse the real economy with the markets - whereas of course they are NOT the same thing at all. I have no doubt that pouring such large quantities of money into our economy - over such a long period of time (it would require at least 20 months at $100billion per month) - would create a sustaining levitation of the equity markets. Market-recognized recession conditions would be completely masked, though again, the REAL economy would continue to suffer, just as it has for the past 2 years.

     

    Ha, and we would have to be adding all that silent, sub-rosa QE that the Fed is injecting even now, per OG's link above, to the tune of about $20billion per month. Perhaps that is where some of the extra money GS talks about comes from.
    26 Oct 2010, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1633) | Send Message
     
    As typically happens, I am behind in reading and participating in the discussions on the QC. Taking care of our client portfolios comes first, so that often leaves me woefully tardy in responding here. On the other hand, it also gives me a better macro view, reading 100 or more messages as a gestalt!

     

    I'd like to weigh in on this buy-and-hold discussion. In some SA article back in April or May, I published with permission a chart Sy Harding did of 110 years of market history. The most striking thing about that chart is that there are (or have always been thus far and I DON'T believe "this time it's different") eerily similar patterns to secular bull and bear markets. The epiphany for me is that there is a time to buy-and-hold and it typically lasts nearly a full investing generation -- 12 to as much as 20 years. If you entered the markets during one of these it's easy to be a buy-and-hold devotee. Then there are the bear interregnums, typically lasting 10 to 14 years. If you enter the investing world during one of these, you are too wary to trust buy-and-hold until it's nearly too late to do so.

     

    Or you could just be an old guy like me, who has seen 3 complete secular markets (I entered the business during the Despairing Decade of 1972-1982) and be a leopard willing to change its spots depending upon the secularity of the times! I rejoice in pointing out that we have now been in a sideways bear for 10.5 years and look forward once again, in one of these not-too-distant days,to be able to philosophically and profitably once again embrace buy-and-hold!
    26 Oct 2010, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5258) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JS - Could you put up the link for the article you mentioned? I'd like to take a look at it. Thanks.
    26 Oct 2010, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1633) | Send Message
     
    Mark, I couldn't remember the title of the article. If only I'd remembered who owns this site, it would have been easier. (The article was titled "Seeking Alpha, Finding Zen"!)

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    If the url doesn't work, it was published 10 May of this year...
    26 Oct 2010, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1633) | Send Message
     
    Possible Dupe Posting (messing with url's...)

     

    Mark, it was in an article titled "Seeking Alpha, Finding Zen" at this url:

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    If the link doesn't work, it was published 10 May 2010...
    26 Oct 2010, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    I wish there was someone out there besides me that would bring sports into Chat. My Phils "phailed," but did win the NL East. My Steelers are rocking! My Pens are in first place. I miss Scrooge.

     

    Chat "is" the investing Facebook.

     

    Oh...and, in the, oops I should have bought more category...Kandi Technologies (KNDI) is up 21.74% since I first mentioned them, October 11th.
    26 Oct 2010, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    Well, maybe if you didn't like horrible teams... ;-) I grew up in Boston, so I'm unable to root for any team outside of New England without alienating my family. I've been threatened with being disowned if I don't have some Red Sox gear. The only team outside of Boston I'm allowed to root for is my Avs. But only because they're local...
    26 Oct 2010, 03:04 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5258) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry, Maya. My only true sports love is Nebraska football. I get a good dose once a week for a few months of the year and then go back to watching game tapes from the good ol' days. Fortunately for me, though, it appears that they good days are returning after the humiliating days under Callahan's coaching. I enjoy other sports, but cannot get too excited about outcomes outside my Huskers. Of course, I do get a little excited watching the Nebraska volleyball team. They are ranked #3 in the nation this year, but somehow I doubt that would be very interesting here. But their kills are awesome! I'd like to turn them lose on Congress. Maybe a little "dodge the volleyball" in a crowded court game. Put maybe twenty members of Congress out on the opposing court and let the Husker players tee off. The last member of Congress gets to keep their seat! Some of them might stand a better chance that way than they do in the upcoming election, plus it would be fun to watch at they toppled to the floor. I'm usually not such a sadistic person but since we can't put them behind bars where they belong I think I'm being generous.
    26 Oct 2010, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Mark: I'm a Buckeyes fan <sigh>

     

    Did play a little volleyball back in High School. Speaking of "kills" I missed one in the state championship game; our team's last shot. Still won the WPIAL Championship (Western PA Invitational Athletic League).
    26 Oct 2010, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Well my Cubs didn't get close and the Bears aren't good enough to go to the Super Bowl. Hawks already won and Bulls are to early in the season to get excited about. Looks like the Rangers could be the Series favorite but it doesn't get underway until tomorrow.
    26 Oct 2010, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Chicago: Pretty nasty weather today. I'd be holding on to the Cubs cap! This storm has driven up cotton futures due to a big hailstorm in Texas.
    26 Oct 2010, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5258) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maya - My only experience in playing volleyball was in college. However, it was the backyard variety, but very competitive. We had a townhouse with a nice flat green lawn in back. We sunk large pipes into the ground so we quickly stick the uprights into them and start playing at a moments notice (we kept the net connected to the uprights and they were stored just inside the basement doorway only a few feet from the court). One of our pals did the chalk lines at the local high school football field and would come over once a week to make sure our court lines were well marked, too. We had regular games every Sunday evening, weather permitting (we even erected flood lights for night play!). But there was a strong likelihood of a game just about any evening. I wouldn't say I was good, but I guess I could have passed for decent and my team usually won. I had about a 35 inch vertical (used to high jump in high school) so I got a lot of set ups. My vertical has shrunk inversely with my weight and age increases. I'm 5' 10" and can barely touch the basketball rim (with a running start) any more. So, now I am relegated to spectator status.

     

    Next year, will be interesting when Nebraska moves to the Big Ten (you know, the conference that will have 12 member schools) from the Big Twelve (the conference that will have 10 member schools). They'll be playing the Buckeyes on October 8th in Lincoln. Getting tickets to a Husker football home game is tougher than getting elected as a Libertarian. The stadium has been sold out for every home game since 1962 with the record now extending to over 300 consecutive sellouts! Fortunately, a game like that one will be on national TV.
    26 Oct 2010, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    That week we'll be enemies!

     

    Great backyard story. For me...it was badminton.
    26 Oct 2010, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    I need to start considering how much money is being created (printed) world wide. Trillions! If the leading countries on the planet are printing money, does this not create a global money bubble? Have any of you heard talk elsewhere of a "global currency bubble?"

     

    Pehaps the biggest bubble of all, ever?
    26 Oct 2010, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Yes. I bring this up when discussing the "weak dollar" with folks. Many of my non-investor friends are confused with monetary dilution occuring WITHOUT inflation, and its a relatively new event of course.

     

    Its a dangerous game. Europe is doing this as well, creating trillions and then locking them away in government controlled zombie banks. The circular sex act between banks and national treasuries has become the home of a large absolute percentage of all the dollars, euros, yen and pounds created. This is a carry trade, of course, but when combined with the huge "external" carry trade between nations, its astounding. I for one do not believe it can be sustained for very long, and WHEN (not if) the rube goldberg/ponzi scheme falls apart, the results will be ugly.

     

    Right now the Fed is trying to "fight" deflation, having had a key hand in creating it via the zombie banks/treasury traffic of course. Depriving the economy of its financial system is like cutting the circulation to a limb - it ultimately dies and rots. The banks were turned into zombies during the meltdown, and are now on life support via the carry trade operating from the Fed window to the treasury and back again.

     

    Remove the support and the banks will have to go back to actually taking risks and loaning money as best they can - something that the new finregs and their own addiction to easy carry trade earnings makes very unpalateable to them. Throw in the other elements of the current situation, all of which greatly aid their cause... Like the implosion of the small regional banks, who are dying off like flies, destroyed by the fallout from the real estate meltdown plus the effects of trying to compete with pet government zombies with unlimited resources drawn from sources they cannot match. The 2big2fail's are growing like topsy, like black holes in space, sucking all the surrounding landscape into their massive cores, while the country sickens. The bigger they get (and they have recently absorbed giant failed stock brokerages, to add to their 2bigness), the worse the problem, repeat, etc.

     

    The world's economies are being made to balance on the head of a pin, and its not a good bet that they can do this for very long. Over the past year its been obvious that the prime movers are ALL in a precaious state - from Europe's Eurozone sovereign default threat, to the ongoing American recession and financial meltdown, to the burgeoning Chinese bubble, built from astounding levels of stimulus money 6 times that expended in the West.

     

    When any of a number of these dikes springs a leak, trillions will be released into the real economy, and probably in the worst possible way. Tiny third world nations may see their economies superheated - while major economies slip once again into depression, starved for investment or suffering the cancer of malinvestment on a mammoth scale. The economic dislocation which can flow from this is mind boggling.
    26 Oct 2010, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    We tried to push North American Tungsten - NATUF - when it was selling in the mid teens. But no one was interested enuff.

     

    It was bought for its assets much like buying many of the REEs.

     

    its now at .40 but i expect more.
    26 Oct 2010, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Not quite "no one was interested". I tried to get in, but it didn't come to where I had priced my entry unless someone was (apparently) ahead of me in the queue. Had an order standing for some time before I finally just figured I'd missed it.

     

    If it came back to me after that, I wasn't looking. This was back when you or Freya first brought it up - $0.19 or so?

     

    HardToLove
    26 Oct 2010, 06:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    I have been in (NATUF.PK) since 7-23, when I bought in at $.18. And yep, it was based upon the tip from Freya/One Eye. Thanks!
    26 Oct 2010, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    OE I have been holding that and CAVO both of which you brought to the table.
    26 Oct 2010, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    I do not have a clue as to why NENE jumped...NO News... but would hazard Hype and if so, it will drop like a rock back to breakout.

     

    While looking through this Sector, we found the following Company which is now concentrating on Solar but whose Technology has Far Reaching promise:

     

    Nat-Core, NTCXF

     

    Suggest more than a cursory look.

     

    Don't own it yet but expect to before the day is done.
    26 Oct 2010, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    NENE got pumped and I think Stock Gumshoe wrote about it recently.
    26 Oct 2010, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Here's the article
    stockgumshoe.com/2010/...
    27 Oct 2010, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Looking at Business Development Companies for the yield with growth part of the portfolio. Under the research topic, "where are the places that the free fed money is going?" (that question led me to invest in BX, but that's another story). One Eye and Freya could probably help with this topic, as Freya's interest in Prospect Capital got me interested in this as a class. Several articles have mentioned them as a source of capital to underserved markets, as a footnote including PM development. So possibly there are some that are selling the proverbial shovels..... Below is a list of BDC's. Not complete. Any thoughts?

     

    ACAS, AINV, ARCC, BKCC, FSC, HTGC, GNV, KED, MAIN, TAXI, NGPC, PNNT, PSEC, TCAP, CODI, ALD, GLAD, GAIN, KCAP, MCGC, TICC.
    26 Oct 2010, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Lower, I've held (AINV), (PNNT), (PSEC), (GLAD) and (TICC) for their high yields in the past. They worked great for me when I wanted to get paid to wait out a risky period. Nowadays I have (AGNC), (ARR), (NLY), (RSO), and a list of royalty trusts fulfilling the high yield duties. I swapped over mainly to high yield royalty trusts because of the tax advantages - the oil and gas exposure - and the new tax rules heading our way in 2011, which I expect to ignite a stampede toward tax advantaged investments like the royalty trusts.
    26 Oct 2010, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    And thanks to you guys for all the REE discussions. I followed silver before, but no other PMs or REEs. Surely I don't have enough, but without QC I would have no Gold (learned how to invest outside of the ETF) or REE's (In my world that is Real Estate Escrow).
    26 Oct 2010, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    L98th, you've had a lot to say about (FL) real estate that helps me put this debacle in perspective.
    Quid Pro Quo.
    26 Oct 2010, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Well, if GS are really the smartest guys on the street and Walmart issues bonds in the ~1.x% for three years and GS issues 50 years for 1.3Bln @ 6.25 %, what does this tell us about future interest rates?

     

    And since it was so well received, causing the increase in volume, what does it tell us about perceived risk vs. inflation expectations of those that are investing. And I guess no one thinks that a Lehman-like event will hit GS in the next 50 years.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Oct 2010, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    My take is that both GS and WalMart are, indeed, much smarter to be SELLING those bonds at those rates than the investors who are BUYING them.
    26 Oct 2010, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    There must be some serious institutional bond investors getting the (GS) issue. Normal bond holders don't want money tied up for more than ten years. A fifty tear note is extraordinary.
    26 Oct 2010, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    Unless you're a retiree living off your CD interest...that 6.125% yield must look pretty appealing to a lot of people.
    26 Oct 2010, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5258) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Both companies are making smart moves based upon the environment in which they find themselves. Opportunities to issue debt at these levels may not happen again in our lifetimes once the world wakes up and smells the reality of being awash in debt and over abundant currency. I have no idea how long it will take, but at some point I just can't help but expect that inflation and interest rates will have to head much higher. But until then, the party continues and the can will keep getting kicked down the road. It's when those riding on the train look out and see the problem is getting too close for comfort that, as Trip pointed out so well earlier in the thread, it's going to get ugly. It'll look something like this:

     

    static.seekingalpha.co...

     

    But until then everything is still up in the air and there may still be a way out, similar to the situation of this gentleman:

     

    static.seekingalpha.co...
    26 Oct 2010, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Dont even need a lehman like event to hose the purchasers. 80's style inflation would be a lehman like event for the buyers.
    26 Oct 2010, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Bought more (PAL), (MLLOF.PK) and (GDLNF.PK).

     

    Bought initial position in (DCHAF.PK), here's their web site, physical REE metal holdings...

     

    www.dachacapital.com/

     

    I understand there is a "switzerland only" REE ETF which kicked off at the end of May, does anyone know anything about them?
    26 Oct 2010, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    I didn't buy PAL today; seems the dollar may gain a little strength in the short term.
    26 Oct 2010, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    www.cftc.gov/PressRoom...

     

    Hyperinflation uncovered this. Must read.
    26 Oct 2010, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm. Could get interesting. Until I see where they are heading, its hard to tell what is up. Will it just be a wrist slap like GS got? (After which they went right back to doing what they were doing before, with a slightly modified set of paperwork for the mark, er, customer to sign.)

     

    Will it tear aside the tissue of lies from the tiny oligarchy of insiders manning the short sale battlements?

     

    I must admit I am interested...

     

    But also very cynical.
    26 Oct 2010, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    At last, a crack in the dike of secrecy!

     

    This could get really, really interesting.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Oct 2010, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Tripple I have to agree on the cynical point. Why now and why just a tease prior to the full report. Smells a little off but it is a start. We must not be overly optimistic. I see silver has broken back above $24.07 for now and that bodes well for silver to continue up, unless we are being set up.......I can't trust ANYTHING any more. I have become so skeptical of this manipulated market.
    27 Oct 2010, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    I am having trouble getting a correct price on silver this morning. CNBC shows it down 17 cents at $23.66 and Monex live prices shows it up 50 cents at $24.12

     

    I think my skepticism is well warranted. WTFO
    27 Oct 2010, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Kitco is showing $23.63:

     

    www.kitco.com/charts/l...
    27 Oct 2010, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Monex was wrong.
    27 Oct 2010, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    If you own WalMart, Amazon, Best Buy, Radio Shack or Best Buy, I strongly recommend reading about how a potential new FAA ruling could pot this years X-mas sales:

     

    www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3...
    26 Oct 2010, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): I've tried to resist posting every little thing, but this was just too good.

     

    NYC is advertising Capstone for us!

     

    Thanks to yormom @ Investor Village.

     

    www.investorvillage.co...

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. And they don't even mention the CCHP possibilities yet nor the boiler replacement application - NYC has *very* old and leaky steam pipes that need repair or replacement with some other facility.
    26 Oct 2010, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Re: CAGC- why It's still a buy, good article, imo
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    26 Oct 2010, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Mark: Been work'n on the book tonight. Been bugging me here and there that I did not say how impressive it is that you can still sky upward and tap the rim. I used to be able to dunk, standing right under the basket. No more ups for me. Double cartilage transplant in one knee. The other I blew out, but never got fixed. That's the good one. Skiing chopped my knees up bad.

     

    But back in the day, I held the standing broad jump record in my high school, nine feet ten inches. Ahh...until the next period. A friend, who went on to catch a winning pass in the Rose Bowl for the Buckeyes, beat my record by a quarter inch that next gym class. He was a senior, I was a junior. Next year I made the basketball team, but blew out my ankle. The Marine Core test, I was unable to participate in my senior year. I wanted that record! But, after healing I then joined the volley ball team, and received that trophy. For a white boy, I had some ups.

     

    Would have been much fun having you as a childhood neighbor!

     

    I would gladly trade that trophy for better knees now.
    27 Oct 2010, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5258) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maya - I had a basketball rim that my Dad helped me put up on the garage (actually, I did the helping). It apparently slipped a little and we didn't notice until it was all tightened down and set in place. It measured 9' 10 1/2". I told my Dad it was close enough. Man, I used to slam down the dunks out there, even did a few 360s. The key was that I used a women's basketball (slightly smaller) so I could grip it. I couldn't hold onto the regulation men's sized basketball so dunking was a problem at school. I had to spin the ball up into my fingertips on the way up and then, sometimes, I could control it. Getting high enough wasn't the problem. My junior year in high school, we had four guys who could dunk on the reserve squad but the coach forbade us to dunk during the warm ups. My favorite thing in basketball was the cleam block of guys several inches taller than me. Those were the days, my friend. Oh yeah, I almost forgot, I get disability from VA for my knees because I hyperextended them repeling from helicopter in Nam. Over 100 lbs on my back, 60' rope and the pilot leveled off at 100' above the ground. They hurt occasionally, but I haven't had anything done yet. I only applied for the disability in case I couldn't afford the operations when needed later in life.
    27 Oct 2010, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Fed QE2 may be "more measured" than expected.

     

    www.marketwatch.com/st...

     

    HardToLove
    27 Oct 2010, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Whereas GS is saying its going to be $2trillion, $100billion at a whack (probably on a monthly basis), PLUS their ongoing $20billion per month.
    27 Oct 2010, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Another great Mineweb:
    2011 called to be a great year for Palladium, John Embry of Sprott calling higher inflation and higher gold prices, Hecla expanding its Lucky strike, great stuff here!
    www.mineweb.com/minewe...
    27 Oct 2010, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    OG, I spoke with my metals broker last night and he said Palladium could hit 800 next year. $660 is next resistance.
    27 Oct 2010, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Palladium is a good play and I read in Bloomberg that Russia has little left. The article is from May, 2010 and it's worth reading even now, I posted it when it came out, here it is again:
    www.bloomberg.com/news...
    27 Oct 2010, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    I absolutely agree about Palladium. Just added more (PAL), and it jumped in price yet again yesterday (hit my short term goal). Currently tracking at $626 per oz on Kitco: www.kitco.com/charts/l...
    27 Oct 2010, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    I got stopped out this summer and never went back in. Seems I need to rethink that dumb move.
    27 Oct 2010, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    (DXY) approaching $78 ($77.94 now) again, 30 yr bond 4.05% again - sea change occurring? Temporary or longer-term?

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Maya said he had a feeling $ might strengthen a bit, watch for PM prices to afford a good entry point? Maybe it's his knees - instead of predicting a weather change, they predict a currency or market change? ;-))

     

    TG I was never good enough or interested enough to play organized sports, other than soccer when I got into my 30's. @ age 21, 34" standing jump, but like Mark, hands too small to hold ball for a dunk.

     

    My knees are fine.
    27 Oct 2010, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    For us it was volley ball at one of the beaches during summer. 12" softball at the Grant High School diamonds in the fall and hockey on the lake during the winter along with ice fishing of course. My knees are shot as well, seems common amongst the military set. My pal left back to Austin yesterday and as I thought he wants to license or market my soft ware. The problem is that his best ol exfriend and partner who is still a friend of mine doesn't. I swear they are like a couple of children fighting over a bag of marbles on the play ground. I'm in the middle saying can't we all just get along we did before. They both think that they got screwed by the other when they sold thier soft ware busines and haven't spoken since. He wants me to convince our third party in this discussion to sign off on this. Yea fat chance of that. On the bright side he did load a update for the software onto my lap top. I don't know what it does and didn't notice any significant difference but he assured me it's needed.
    27 Oct 2010, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    DXY may hit 79 before resuming the drop but the pause is very temporary. My guesstimate is a few weeks.

     

    BSDM is chugging, CRDC won't be left behind much longer.

     

    AGNC's dividend looks safe for another qtr.
    27 Oct 2010, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Bertha on CNBC just interviewed one of the oil traders in the pit. Expects dollar to strengthen through near year-end and push oil back towards $60/bbl.

     

    *If* he's right, tankers will again get gobbled up for storage as the biggies play the futures, based on inflation expectations, and spot tanker rates will come back. There will be a lag, I believe.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Oct 2010, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    (NAT): Whoop! Yesterday did a complex options order for net credit $0.45. Short Nov. $25 calls @ $1.30 delta ~94%, long Nov $26 puts @ $0.85 delta ~-47%.

     

    I figured since there is no support prior to the $25.50 area, it would go at least to there and I could close out the positions at some profit plus collect the dividend, which I'm guessing will be in $0.30 area.

     

    I could've been smarter and did this in the mid-$27 to high $26 pps range, but I wanted some confirmation. Pps was ~$26.10 yesterday when I opened the position.

     

    I expect the down trend to stay in place at least until the end of the week before the dividend buyers come in (if they do - many may not expect it to be worth it) and push price back up.

     

    Net result of the decreasing delta on the short side as price drops and increasing delta on the put side as price drops combined with remaining (small) time value might let me make more on the trade than the pps drops.

     

    Just wanted to mention this as a strategy alternative to selling out of a stock when you think a substantial pullback is in the offing.

     

    Lots of risk - timing (heh! I really didn't do as well as I might have on that), direction and magnitude.

     

    I won't be surprised if there's an overshoot to the downside, maybe near or below $25 pps, given the volatility and skittishness of market participants.

     

    I'll post the results when I lose my courage and bail.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Just noticed, already trading $25.43 Yeehaw!
    27 Oct 2010, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    New housing purchase contracts up over 6% from last month which was also up until it wasn't. With less than a week to go before the crucial midterm you don't suppose there is some spin doctoring going on do you? Of course the price decline of around 6% on the median single family residence didn't get mentioned. I'm putting D.R.Horton (DHI) back on the front page of the watch list though just in case.
    27 Oct 2010, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5258) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nice strategy, HTL. I have used a similar strategy selling calls periodically on a stock I want to hold, collecting the premiums, and reducing my cost basis. I have a friend who employed that strategy with Intel after 2000 and he now owns all his shares with a zero cost basis. So, he got his money (original investment) back without having to pay taxes on any of it (return of principal) and will only pay tax on the capital gain when he decides to sell. He is now a "very" long-term investor in Intel.
    27 Oct 2010, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday, did a little "condensing." I sold off ATPG and PCX on the whim that the dollar would strengthen today. Bought back some ATPG today (not much), and (re)established a postion in Sprint (S) based upon how hard the stock got whacked today, and...that Sprint pulled off making some moola for the first time in years! Also, just bought some in the BA. My broker really likes what Sprint is doing.

     

    Happy, Robert ;-)

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...

     

    Also added some (PAL) but not as much as I want to have.
    27 Oct 2010, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Greetings. Sprint (S) is one of my largest holdings. I'm "Pleased as punch." with them at the moment. Freya and I worked through this one and I believe her position is right at break even at the moment. I still think they have room to walk as they certainly aren't running as yet. LOL.
    27 Oct 2010, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    I think there will still be time to re-enter pm positions at lower prices.
    that's just my opinion.
    27 Oct 2010, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Nature pecularities: Deer are not supposed to like geraniums. Mine, they eat. Deer are not supposed to like mums. Mine, they eat. And the crazy Canadian robins are back! Earliest ever. Really weird to hear out the window mobs of robins this time of the year, chumping down on the holly berries, which haven't yet fully ripened.

     

    Years ago, no robins wintered here.
    27 Oct 2010, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Sounds bad for nat gas investments.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Oct 2010, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11779) | Send Message
     
    The effects of QEII are vastly overstated. Although QE has been shown to temporarily stimulate the stock market and the economy, it has proven to be a lingering problem, the absence of which leads to years more of a recession and slow to stagnant recovery. Japan is a great example. If you want to cripple your country for a good 2 decades go for it!
    27 Oct 2010, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget to add in the present and ongoing huge deficit along with the QE. Double trouble. Precisely like Japan, but at least they have exports.
    27 Oct 2010, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Just an observation: The dollar is forming a short term inverse head and shoulders. The right shoulder is now equal to the left, indicating that as early as tomorrow, the dollar should continue on its slide. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in this observation, though, "But there it is," as Charlton Heston said in the classic war movie, "Midway."

     

    Used to call this formation "Batman's Ears," back in my early trading days.
    27 Oct 2010, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    An eye opener from consumer metrics site.
    www.consumerindexes.com/

     

    In June 2007 an accumulation of $2,000,000 in an IRA or 401K would translate into $100,000 in annual income when invested in 1 year T-Bills......Today the same $2,000,000 (if it was somehow preserved throughout the "Great Recession") would earn $4,200 per annum if invested similarly -- or roughly the per capita income in the Republic of the Congo.
    27 Oct 2010, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Wait until loads of those who fled to bonds to shelter their money get nailed with a flood of inflation - higher interest rates - and depreciating dollars. Its going to be a bloodbath.
    27 Oct 2010, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    If someone says he retired in the future it will simply mean "he died".
    27 Oct 2010, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5258) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » And I do plan to retire in the future, I just hope I don't have to retire too soon.
    27 Oct 2010, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    I'm never going to retire. I have a long history of picking careers that go obsolete, though:

     

    Used to build factories, then America stopped building factories, time for a change...

     

    Used to illustrate books and do commercial art for small businesses, then we stopped publishing books and small businesses stopped advertising, time for a change...

     

    Now I'm selling artwork direct to the public, and even though the current depressed economy means they aren't buying, I'm sticking with it until the next change rolls around...

     

    Which will, LOL, probably "roll" in a hearse.

     

    But I'm not retiring. I just know I'd be lousy at it.
    27 Oct 2010, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    A topic we have watched in the past...

     

    Indian gold demand: www.ibtimes.com/articl...

     

    Unlike last year this time, the picture there is upbeat. September is the biggest month for weddings and the gold demand that drives, but they are looking toward a continuing bright future for gold in India:

     

    [quote] Most market participants believe that some correction in prices from every level see buying by actual users. However, WGC highlights several factors that can support gold demand in the coming months, apart from buying during the marriage season.

     

    Rising income levels of urban Indians, tax concession in the Union Budget 2010-11, normal monsoon forecasts for this season, overall acceptability of gold as the most liquid asset among rural population and investors' preference are some of the factors which could keep gold in demand in the days to come.

     

    "WGC believes that Indian investors may continue to move into gold as an insurance policy to protect their wealth from the aftermath of the global financial crisis, since there are few assets that have the ability to hold their value during extreme conditions."

     

    "Given the rebound in gold demand and higher price expectations, WGC expects a positive outlook for the Indian gold market for 2010." [quote]
    27 Oct 2010, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5258) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please go QC # 113 at the following link:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    27 Oct 2010, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    Uranium price just punch up through resistance in place for a year, at least.

     

    DNN has lots of room to run.
    28 Oct 2010, 05:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget to go to the new QC Mark posted.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2010, 05:53 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.