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Mark Bern, CFA
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K202 is now back to just the original author again, Mark Bern. Mark is both a CPA and a CFA charter holder. He has a bachelors degree in Business Admin. with a concentration in Economics. His experience includes both private and public sector and careers in accounting, financial and market... More
  • OG's Quick Chat # 92 8/19/2010 100 comments
    Aug 19, 2010 2:41 PM

    OG has asked me to take over responsibility for the Quick Chats so that she can sort out some personal things.  OG will be back with us soon after her hiatus.. At that time she will resume posting QC Instablogs.  Until then, I will be your host.  Please be respectful and enjoy the liberty of this space.

    List of stocks mentioned in QC #91:

    (BGZ), (NASDAQ:CPST), (NASDAQ:CRDC), (NYSE:CRT), (OTCPK:EOXFF), (NYSEARCA:EWT), (NYSEMKT:GBG), (OTC:GDLNF), (NYSE:GM), (OTCPK:GWMGF), (NYSE:HGT), (OTCQX:HUDRF), (JAG), (OTCPK:LYSCF), (NASDAQ:MARPS), (MCP), (NYSE:MTR), (NYSE:NAT), (OTCPK:NXTH), (NYSEMKT:PAL), (NYSE:PBT), (OTCPK:RMCP), (NYSEARCA:RWM), (NYSEARCA:SDS), (NYSE:SJT), (NYSEARCA:SPXU), (TBT, (NYSEARCA:TLT), (NYSE:TNK), (NYSE:TOO), (NYSEARCA:TZA)


    Disclosure: SRS, SPXU

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Comments (100)
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  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment from QC# 91 was by dfbell:

     

    So how is the fin media making the leap that deals and buyouts are good for a struggling economy? Net net has to be fewer employees, more debt, questionable efficiencies, fewer competitors so more pricing power, and wasting of alot of cash that could fund growth, and often increased foreign control/benefits.

     

    Is there any money multiplier for the US economy that I am missing?
    19 Aug 2010, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1659) | Send Message
     
    You aren't missing a thing, Mark. It's all about "action" on a slow news day. If there isn't an international blow-up somewhere, figuratively or literally, they'll all be on Potash Corp watch, scribbling nonsense with every blip and rumor. (I started to say POT watch, but that would have been too easy...)
    19 Aug 2010, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9258) | Send Message
     
    Its only good for the media. They have something to talk about.
    19 Aug 2010, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    (BGZ) 7.3MM trades today, (TZA) 20.3MM trades today. However, (TZA) >2 times more expensive than (BGZ) and (TZA) performing better *today*. I've not checked them long-term yet.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2010, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3123) | Send Message
     
    TZA did a 1 for 5 about a month ago, could be reason fpr volatility, less shares in float.
    20 Aug 2010, 04:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    Stick save attempt being made. Probably won't get it all back, but some.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2010, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Looking toward the 2011 buying opp, I am starting to seek out stocks to fill the gap between convetional energy (served well by high yielding royalty trusts and pipeline operators, imo) and blue sky alternative energy plays. (VRNM) is one that made me money in the past, and it is showing clear signs of life this past week and today. Up 8.00% as I write this. Cellulosic ethanol is the bastard child of the corn lobby, supported by the crumbs from the corn-squeezin's ethanol pork barrel. Unlike the corn ethanol and biodiesel iniatives, I can see the long term logic of generating ethanol from cellulosic waste products vs food grains.

     

    As the winds of political fortune shift next year, I can foresee opportunities for step children to squeeze in for more attention.

     

    Adding this to page 1 of my watch list, straddling the energy/alternative energy sectors.
    19 Aug 2010, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    More data... (VRNM) showed surprising strength on a down day today, up 11.33%. Its recent sale of its cellulosic pilot plant to (BP) appears to have enabled it to clean up its balance sheet, as well as setting it up with more customers for its enzyme business. Income from the sales of Phyzyme (animal feed) and Purifine (soybean processing/crushing enzyme) are looking strong.

     

    Blackrock, (GS) and the company's own insiders are buying heavily right now, with their large purchases responsible for much of the increase in share price.

     

    For those who day trade, this might be an interesting play.
    19 Aug 2010, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Researchers from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts rightly hammered the administrations position that most of the oil in the gulf disappeared. I have a full post in the Gulf Spill News Concentrator. tinyurl.com/2b2l88z

     

    Protect your freedoms, stay informed.
    19 Aug 2010, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Down day for REE stocks generall, today:

     

    (MCP) up .41% (Its good to be on a major exchange sometimes).

     

    (LYSCF.PK) down 1.6%

     

    (GWMGF.PK) down 3.60%

     

    (HUDRF.PK) down 6.52%

     

    (GDLNF.PK) down 17.50%, wild ride this one, no news today was bad news, tomorrow is "D-Day".
    19 Aug 2010, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1659) | Send Message
     
    Have you noticed the stick saves are getting more and more labored and less and less effective lately? DaBoyz must be getting tired at the end of such a long game...
    19 Aug 2010, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    I've noticed that too. My *theory*, and I'm sticking to it ... until I get a better one, is that the HFT, quants, "da boyz" have been "fine tuning" their algorithms to account for the "new normal" of computer<->computer trading with almost no retail humans in the loop.

     

    As each iteration of the "fine tuning" is instantiated, it becomes harder for one computer to scrape $0.0001 off the trade of another.

     

    But wait until next week when the new batch of Fed money shows up in the coffers of ... whomever it is that receives that money each options expiration week (search my prior comments for the article link).

     

    We'll probably see a bump and exclamations of "... how resilient this market is" as they try to convince the recalcitrants to turn over their hard-earned cash.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2010, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The stick save failed today. Apparently Silentz was left on the bench. It looks like the final tick may have been up but the slide into the last few minutes was down about 4 points (vs S&P 500), but still 5 pts off the low for the day. I suspect we could go a little lower at the opening tomorrow, but Eric McCurdy expects support around 1060. The congestion around that area would seem to support his view. If we break much under that, and especially if it holds for the week's close, the next line of support is around 1020.
    19 Aug 2010, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • dfbell
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Thinking a bit more about initial claims. could the increase be caused by the census workers getting walking papers? I was expecting a bad number with states/munis cutting staff. if there are a bunch of census folks in there too, that number is maybe not so bad on an apples to apples. guess we will have to wait for the UE number in september.
    19 Aug 2010, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dave - I went back through the BLS Employment Situation Reports all the way back to the beginning of the government's fiscal year in October 2009 and found that temp census workers hired totaled 549,000 and that, thus far, only 368,000 have been laid off. I also read in an article somewhere that a total of 1.2 million temporary census bureau workers had been hired, but I cannot confirm that number (that's what I was trying to do in my little research project). So, we still have at least 181,000 temporary census workers that will be canned in the next month or two (by October, latest, IIRC). That's not going to help going forward for a couple of months. I suspect that your expectations about seeing more lay offs at the state and local levels will come to fruition in the near future as well, though. But I don't expect it to ramp up until the 4th quarter as their budgets start to get squeezed and they are forced to do something. From my experience government rarely does anything unpopular until it too late to do anything else. And I don't care which party is in charge. The other factor that delays the moves is the upcoming elections. Layoffs at the local levels of government could hurt the sitting Senator or Congressman from getting re-elected, not to mention those officials running at the local level. I suspect that the local party officials are trying to coordinate things to do the least amount of damage to their candidates before November. So, I expect the lay off to start in the 4th quarter and continue well into 2011. Just my opinion, of course.
    19 Aug 2010, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • dfbell
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    A federal grand jury has indicted Roger Clemens on charges of making false statements to Congress about his use of performance-enhancing drugs.

     

    Wait a second, when did Congress begin worrying about "false statements"??
    19 Aug 2010, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5077) | Send Message
     
    If you don't come after people who violate your patent rights, you can lose them. They'll probably settle when he offers to pay them royalties.
    19 Aug 2010, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DM - You're right! Congress and the Administration do seem to share the patent rights on fraudulent activities. They also seem willing to sell licenses to those willing to pony up the royalties. BP comes to mind. Then there are the 2BTF banks. Gosh, if we did some serious analysis I'll bet we could compile a very long list of...wait, aren't they listed as contributors?
    19 Aug 2010, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • dfbell
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Oh no, a new franchise opportunity?
    Now if he can just recruit 4 people to join his group ...
    20 Aug 2010, 06:12 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5077) | Send Message
     
    You have an angry troll under your bridge. Did you forget to feed him?
    20 Aug 2010, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I noticed that the troll has been hitting Freya, too.
    20 Aug 2010, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • dfbell
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps the troll got stuck on the bottom of my shoe earlier today.
    20 Aug 2010, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1659) | Send Message
     
    While the housing market was sliding, jobs were disappearing, Wall Street was defrauding us, and the national debt was skyrocketing, Congress decided to tackle the big national issues -- like who in baseball was using steroids.

     

    I just checked my copy of the US Constitution. Nope, nothing in there about Congress conducting hearings on sports issues. I did find something about Nero fiddling while Rome burns, however...
    19 Aug 2010, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    From John Mauldin: "Deflation: Pay Close Attention"

     

    There are so many pertinent observations in this article it was difficult to pick one to show here. I fianlly decided on this.

     

    =================
    Professor Michael Boskin wrote today in the Wall Street Journal:

     

    "The president does not say that economists agree that the high future taxes to finance the stimulus will hurt the economy. (The University of Chicago's Harald Uhlig estimates $3.40 of lost output for every dollar of government spending.) Either the president is not being told of serious alternative viewpoints, or serious viewpoints are defined as only those that support his position. In either case, he is being ill-served by his staff."

     

    ... I find it very encouraging that there is a movement among Democrats to think about at least postponing the demise of the Bush tax cuts until the economy is in better shape.
    ======================

     

    Well worth a read as I believe it succinctly describes our current situation.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2010, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    Today is the day we have paid for the cost of government at all levels.

     

    Rejoice, rejoice. Only 231 days needed.

     

    How much better off we are as compared to when we used to accomplish this by mid-May or so. How naive we were at that time to think the burden of government was so onerous then. We didn't realize all the benefits that would accrue if we just relinquished all.

     

    We are so much more comfortable (in our foreign-made junk furniture), healthy (ignoring obesity, diabetes, ...), secure (except for our borders), ... I best stop here before I injure myself turning these handsprings.

     

    I sure hope we continue further down this road so I will eventually have no worries and my pap will be provided by my nanny-state.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2010, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    townhall.com/news/busi...

     

    Rural Mainstreet economic survey is an interesting snapshot of heartland USA. For one thing, this survey overlaps the many of the BEST job markets in the country (unemployment rates are almost universally worse on the coasts, and better in the middle).

     

    Back down in the 40's, after a short spell at 50 even (above 50 indicates growth, below 50 is a "bad thing"). Another indicator to add to the heap.
    19 Aug 2010, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TB - Thanks for that link. As you say, it's one more negative data point indicator to add to the rest. If we look at its recent reliability, it has been pretty darn accurate, as many others have.

     

    But don't worry, Uncle Sugar will save us all. Our government says things is gettin' better all the time. sorry, I'm not trying to slur any group. I'm just practicing how I'll need to talk when I'm poor. I've got to get used to my new place in life.
    19 Aug 2010, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    "No Double Dip Recession". Or at least, so says Caterpillar's CEO.

     

    When I spotted this headline, I remember thinking: "Is he talking as an American, or as a Global citizen?"

     

    Right away, the source of his opinion becomes clear...

     

    "The World's central banks have not made any major errors..."

     

    "...the economy is improving, especially in the developing world".

     

    "We don't think the world has ended".

     

    "Global equipment sales are up 32%." said the world's largest maker of construction and mining equipment.

     

    "Equipment sales in the Asia-Pacific region are up 41%".

     

    "...the developing world is leading the way in growth".

     

    Good information for those investing in (CAT) to know. Looks like they are doing well.

     

    Now, as to whether or not this CEO has a clue what is going on in the United States...

     

    Those global rose colored glasses may be affecting his vision.
    19 Aug 2010, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Just for kicks, I took a gander over the most recent unemployment numbers. Its not something I dwell on, mainly because it just makes me mad and depressed...

     

    But I heard the headlines about bad news, and had to take a look.

     

    500,000 is the magik number of New Unemployment Claims, up 12,000 over last month, and then of course, they went back and jacked up the numbers over the last 3 months "just because" they can. Anything over 400,000 is of course bad news.

     

    I'll skip to the end to save some heartburn...

     

    10,069,000 total folks on unemployment compensation, 254,000 MORE than a year ago this time.

     

    Odd way to run an economic "recovery" if you ask me.

     

    Of course, this doesn't count the 10million or so workers who have gone beyond even the extended benefits, and dropped off the edge of the Regime's statistical world.

     

    I read where part of the problem for the high and lingering unemployment is the fact that the duration of unemployment has more than doubled (12.3 weeks in 1982 vs 25.5 weeks and counting)...

     

    Sigh. That's MORE bad news, isn't it.

     

    OK, I think I'll go back and read that glowing interview with (CAT) and their wondrous prospects for selling bulldozers made in Malaysia to Chinese businesses building in Mongolia. Sure, THAT will cheer me up!
    19 Aug 2010, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. Not to add to the doom and gloom but the recently graduated class of 2010 with their newly printed bachelors degrees are unemployed too for the most part. They aren't counted either because they have never been in the work force. I hope they enjoy the view from mom's basement they could be there for some time.
    20 Aug 2010, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Yes. We need to be adding perhaps 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with new worker population increase.
    20 Aug 2010, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5156) | Send Message
     
    You know, anyone who speaks to Congress and doesn't exert 5th amendment privilege is insane. It's too risky to talk to those pigs. If I were Ken Lewis, or the guy from BP, or a sports figure, I'd say NOTHING. More tempted to chant "No way, I won't say" or "Waiving rights bites!" or some such nonsense.
    I would be tempted to couch it differently than " I respectfully exert my rights under the 5th amendment." That's way too polite for those dogs. I resent them spending our money on such hearings. I remember when Lyle Alzado got sick with brain cancer and announced that he'd done it to himself with steroid use. The ball clubs are perfectly capable of taking care of drug use by their players. We don't need some candy-ass senators to weigh in.

     

    On another matter, I just saw something that surprised me. Tantalum is now on sale on ebay in 1 gram bars. Someone on ebay is trying to sell 5 grams (5 tiny ingots) for $9.99. Hilarious! (They look lovely.) Guess we'll see this pitched by G. Gordon Liddy and Glenn Beck soon, to expand our collections of collectible metals.
    Tantalum for home storage, what a chuckle.
    20 Aug 2010, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5077) | Send Message
     
    Sounds tantalizing.
    20 Aug 2010, 02:32 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3123) | Send Message
     
    Geeez OG, you've certainly become jaded.

     

    What ever happened to that innocent of a couple of years ago?
    20 Aug 2010, 05:00 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    "Candy-ass Senators" LOL LOL

     

    A truly eloquent comment from the heart! Well said.
    20 Aug 2010, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3123) | Send Message
     
    Virtual colonoscophys, Noninvasive, thats RMCPs gig;

     

    If it works,

     

    Thats my refrain for now,
    20 Aug 2010, 05:04 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3123) | Send Message
     
    NXTH, seems rather strange that they continue to expand outlets by leaps if the shelf life is indeed short.
    20 Aug 2010, 05:06 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5156) | Send Message
     
    Click three times in our red shiny shoes, and we can go home to Kansas.
    20 Aug 2010, 05:07 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3123) | Send Message
     
    The Nyse membership is helping propel stocks to the downside, having increased the number of shortsales.

     

    No end in sight
    20 Aug 2010, 05:09 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    The Panic begins...
    20 Aug 2010, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just a twist to the subject of border security. I thought this story is a sad, but true example of our commitment (or lack thereof).

     

    news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us...
    20 Aug 2010, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3123) | Send Message
     
    Btw, a hurricane looks to be forming in the atlantic by the middle of next week
    20 Aug 2010, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • dfbell
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the heads up.
    Perhaps DIG time soon ....
    20 Aug 2010, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Great News! Responding to recent Israeli concerns that the Iranians are near to building nuclear weapons, the Regime has passed the word that "It will take Iran a year to develop nukes".

     

    A whole YEAR? Wow, then there is no need to worry about this minor matter NOW, right?

     

    Right.

     

    Look for the Presidential speech where he ventures into new policy where he insists: "The Iranians have the RIGHT to build nuclear weapons".

     

    townhall.com/news/poli...

     

    Shoot yeah. Maybe he'll invite them to build them in Manhatten, at the new ground zero mosque.

     

    Surreal. I just toured the Salvador Dali exhibit at the High in Atlanta. ...

     

    Is Voldemort growing a new, very long, mustach?
    20 Aug 2010, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "A year is a very long period of time," Samore was quoted by the newspaper in an report posted on its website late Thursday.

     

    It's only a very long period of time when you are not the one faced with annihilation, IMHO. I can't blame Israel for whatever action they might feel necessary for self preservation.
    20 Aug 2010, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    The Israeli negotiating position with the Regime will NEVER be stronger than right now. I will be shocked if we do not one day discover that a deal was struck between now and November, with the actual operation against Iran mounted somewhere AFTER the elections. Perhaps January, New Years...
    20 Aug 2010, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    We've been talking for some time now how empty the markets are. Even the HFT quanties can't seem to do much anymore. We've also been watching as money floods out of the funds and equities like muddy water through a New Orleans leavee...

     

    The Quants (quanitative funds) are down to just $476billion, from a high of over $1.2trillion in 2007, a 61% drop. Ouch.

     

    25% of quant hedge funds have failed outright since then.

     

    Even so, the quants are doubling down on the idea that brought them to the party. Every one of them is pouring billions into the latest and fastest equipment, and research into develping the most potent software. This should surprise no one - after all, regardless of how poorly they have done since 2007, they are still very sure that they are the smartest guys in the room.

     

    Interviews bear this out. When asked about the source of their success during good times, the answer was uniformaly a reference to their brilliant minds.

     

    During bad times, the interviews are all about "anomalous events" and "broken markets".

     

    No way did the big brains make a mistake.

     

    Now they are circling the bottom of the bowl, still locked in a death match with one another, blowing every dime they can scrape together on faster computers and software to out-quant their fellow quants. So far they have managed to prove that they can, indeed, lose money at a speed never before seen.
    20 Aug 2010, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Dollar is rocketing up. 1.1% vs Euro, up against Yen, up against Pound.

     

    Philadephia Manufacturing Index just reported a strong drop, when the xperts had predicted a strong increase.

     

    Always fun to watch xperts squirm when their predictions are 180 degrees out of phase with reality. You can almost read their puzzled minds:

     

    "Hey, what about that. And I used to be so SMART!"

     

    Now they are just ex-experts. Xperts.
    20 Aug 2010, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    ex = has been, spurt = drip under pressure.

     

    alt: guy on the other end of the phone with a book open

     

    HardToLove
    20 Aug 2010, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We are getting very close to support on the S&P500. A close below 1060 would be very negative for equities, IMHO.
    20 Aug 2010, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5156) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone read the Mole today? Several things of interest jumped out of the page at me, including
    the paragraph on Germany/growth in Eurozone, on MacDonald's issuing bonds in yuan
    and the Rimm BMW story:
    Here's the link:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    20 Aug 2010, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I have been following him for a while. He has "gone active" here lately. Excellent stuff!
    20 Aug 2010, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5156) | Send Message
     
    Fidelity announced a ton of 401K hardship redemptions.
    20 Aug 2010, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • dfbell
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    60,000 in the 2nd quarter.
    Interesting aspect is that they generally were not folks approaching retirement, but in the 30-40 group. That may impoverish them when retirement finally does arrive. Ouch.
    20 Aug 2010, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Energy stocks are starting to move into my sights…. I bought an initial level of (PCX) this morning… Oil (COP) (XOM) and (HXL) are approaching starting position levels.

     

    I stopped out of (URI) this morning… will look for a better entry price.
    Of course, all of these initial starting positions will be protected with tight stops.
    20 Aug 2010, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1659) | Send Message
     
    User, "in times like these" I prefer my coal companies to be leaseholders (like NRP and PVR) rather than operators. But I agree PCX is beginning to look pretty cheap. Have you considered CLD, as well? No div but a PE of 7 and 100% Powder River Basin (in the business-friendly, non-union West) low-sulphur coal...
    20 Aug 2010, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Yes Indeed Joseph… (CLD) is on my MUST have list. I made good money in energy several months ago. I sold on the high side, and have been lurking in the shadows waiting to get back in ever since.

     

    Here are my initial buy targets:

     

    (ANR) 37.50
    (ACI) 23
    (BTU) 42
    (CLD) 14.75
    20 Aug 2010, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11025) | Send Message
     
    OyGee: Up top was a first class rant! Thoroughly enjoyed it!

     

    User: Stocks are beginning to look cheap. But I'm holding out going long on anything. September, historically, is a bummer month. Remember I did an Insta on that subject last year around this time? Many times has the market tanked in September, moreso than any other month of the year. My thinking is better prices are coming.

     

    Oops! Going long the dollar, and shorting the euro, as we talked about earlier this week, is looking more and more like a viable trade.

     

    Gotta go read the Mole!

     

    20 Aug 2010, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9258) | Send Message
     
    Oh Gee, What scared me most was this "•The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is proposing that debt counted as bank capital should be converted to stock or written off in a crisis, forcing bond investors to bear some of the cost of future bailouts."

     

    They are actually planning for how to handle the next bail out.... not fixing the problem. Is "Bailout Two-- The Double Down" coming anytime soon. I thought the plan was to not bail them out again.

     

    Could someone actually be lying here?
    20 Aug 2010, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Guns - It's not called lying as long it comes from a political leader. After all, it's just politics, right? We are supposed to accept everything they say with a grain of salt because it's just politics. In political circles there are no such terms such as fraud, lies, or stealing. Those are terms better suited for their enemies and the fat cat managers of evil corporations when it is in vogue. Oh, wait, I noticed that over the last decade it can also apply to Republicans, Independents, and a few straying Democrats. But all other political leaders are immune from scrutiny.
    20 Aug 2010, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • dfbell
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    How bout a baseball player who is in politics?
    Would that be a total rub off?
    20 Aug 2010, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    How many broken promises, failed initiatives and foolish moves can one POTUS make?

     

    "Obama's energy meltdown"

     

    www.politico.com/news/...

     

    HardToLove
    20 Aug 2010, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    "My name is Legion, for we are many".
    20 Aug 2010, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11025) | Send Message
     
    Quick! Where's Al Gore? Oh...he's on his half football-sized diesel sucking houseboat chugging along somewhere in the TVA, releasing tears into his solar powered hot tub.

     

    "Ohhh the billions I've lost! Don't these stupid Americans realized that doubling their home electric bill is good for America, good for the atmosphere, good for green jobs, good for cutting carbon footprints, good for all the rich and privileged?

     

    "Oh well, I already got 'em taxpayers for a half a billion...dang that unpopular prez."
    20 Aug 2010, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5077) | Send Message
     
    "How many broken promises, failed initiatives and foolish moves can one POTUS make?"

     

    As with so many human endeavors, each generation outdoes the one before it. We're breaking records here. And the scary part is that records are made to be broken...
    20 Aug 2010, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I thought the Borg was so cool. I never thought I'd live to see the day, though...
    20 Aug 2010, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5156) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget his alimony. He's gotta drum up some new business to pay off Tipper.
    20 Aug 2010, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    townhall.com/news/worl...

     

    Iran's plutonium factory cranks up.

     

    Russians cash a big check.

     

    Western leaders issue empty threat #10078392847.

     

    Israel worries in silence...
    20 Aug 2010, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): "Biomass in Microturbines"

     

    www.renewableenergywor...

     

    China will become a big player. Maybe some opportunities if they can do it without giving away the company. Since they've recently added a couple more Asian distributors, should see some benefit down the road.

     

    www.nytimes.com/2010/0...

     

    HardToLove
    20 Aug 2010, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Added more (RWM) today.
    20 Aug 2010, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1659) | Send Message
     
    A market that won't go down after repeated tries will most likely go up.

     

    A market that can't go up after repeated tries will most likely decline further. Not adding a lot of EUM, RWM, SH, VXX, etc. -- but only because we are already well-positioned there...
    20 Aug 2010, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11025) | Send Message
     
    Triple: You may like this Harry Reid and Obama short toon about the mosque:

     

    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    20 Aug 2010, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Funny one. I thought they might have Biden come in as a pig and talk about how "clean" Obama-pig is.
    20 Aug 2010, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9258) | Send Message
     
    I am not so sure about clean, sounded a little like flatulence there at the end.
    20 Aug 2010, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    "flatulence is all that I've heard from him since day 1. Consider Shakespear's "Hoist upon his own petard" (Wiktionary for a def of "petard").

     

    HardToLove
    21 Aug 2010, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5156) | Send Message
     
    Word History: The French used pétard, "a loud discharge of intestinal gas," for a kind of infernal engine for blasting through the gates of a city. "To be hoist by one's own petard," a now proverbial phrase apparently originating with Shakespeare's Hamlet (around 1604) not long after the word entered English (around 1598), means "to blow oneself up with one's own bomb, be undone by one's own devices." The French noun pet, "fart," developed regularly from the Latin noun pditum, from the Indo-European root *pezd-, "fart."
    21 Aug 2010, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11025) | Send Message
     
    Hilarious! Here we are, sittiing around on a Saturday afternoon, writing about the history of farts! LMAO!

     

    Beyond the etymology, and from a cultural history standpoint, the ancient Maya had a god of flatulence. This god was not only about farts, but also the smell a human eminates when one dies, or, is eviserated. Same goes for animals.

     

    In my book, around the year 410 AD, I have a young man who meets a beautiful maiden, whose request is for him to speak to a god, inorder to gain her hand in marriage. The young man, U Kit Took' (Patron of Flint) recalls paddling down a river, where another river confluents, and that river smells aweful. (The river, "Agua Sucia," or smelly river actually does exist.) He knew where to find a god, and sets out to find Him/Her.

     

    He paddles up Smelly River, lands his canoe, and then traverses the jungle hills and finally, after many wrong turns, finds the source, a hot spring. But it's too dark for him to return to his canoe, and he lays down within the acrid watery breath of the Underworld, and falls asleep.

     

    In his dreams, he does meet the God of Flatulence, who talks to him from a tree. Then in the darkness, something thumps down next to his head. He wakes up, reaches out and feels something firm yet soft, and he slips it under his head for a pillow. The next morning, after the sun peeled away the fog, he discovers that the pillow was a cacao pod, and that he had been sleeping under an ancient cacao tree, the grandmother cacao tree, the mother to all the finest chocolate in the ancient Mayan world....

     

    21 Aug 2010, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11025) | Send Message
     
    A solution to our national debt problem: If the US married another country, and then got divorced, that country would then have to pay half our debt!
    20 Aug 2010, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget the child support. The government has a lot of dependents.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Aug 2010, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9258) | Send Message
     
    NO,NO, NO!!! That means we have to keep the kids. Are you out of your mind!!!!
    20 Aug 2010, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5077) | Send Message
     
    With all do respect, who is going to marry us? We have kind of let ourselves go. We're obese, broke, addicted to drugs, and we have a habit of letting strangers in the house with no questions asked. All the while we keep promising we'll clean up our act. No. I don't think we're much of a catch.
    20 Aug 2010, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » About the only suitable partner would be China. I would demand a sizable dowry, though. Then we need to consummate the marriage (now that's something our leaders know how to do). Once we've drained her then we file for divorce and stick her with half the debt.

     

    Hey, if we could do this about five times we could be in pretty good shape.
    20 Aug 2010, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11025) | Send Message
     
    DM: We just need the matchmaker--some amoral politician or corrupt Wall Street gangsta--to slip some depacote or xanax in the courtship tea!
    20 Aug 2010, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    "The Neverending Recession"

     

    pragcap.com/the-never-...

     

    I'm gong to have to do some digging for this one. Is this guy right, are we going negative this quarter?

     

    Forget the revised downward estimates of 1.7% growth, are we looking at negative numbers from here on out?

     

    Something here strikes me as real. Tought days dead ahead...
    21 Aug 2010, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Looks like I'm not the only one looking at "Fiat Gold":

     

    online.wsj.com/article...
    21 Aug 2010, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11025) | Send Message
     
    Trip: Good find! Dr. Stephen Leeb, a contributor here on SA, believes gold right now is maturing/morphing into its own asset class.

     

    I enjoyed the insight the article provided in comparing gold's relative strength to the dollar. Makes a lot of sense.

     

    My thinking is that gold will retreat short term, because the dollar is going to strengthen, again short term. If the HO and all the other bearish indicators play out, and we tank next month, I believe there will once again be a flight to safety toward the dollar, which then, as the article implies, gold will henceforth retrace.

     

    Just wondering how all those 45:1 paper versus real gold contracts Comex and the five big bullion banks hold...how are they going to deal with gold if it returns to $1000, or less. Especially as it becomes apparent to the masses that gold is not a commodity, but its own asset class.

     

    The next time gold bottoms, though, watch out!
    21 Aug 2010, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I added new information into the "Why Short the Euro" Insta. Look up iat the top for several new charts. tinyurl.com/27dw7k9

     

    My interpretation of the data may be incorrect, but at the minimum, the insta might serve as a focal point for a useful discussion and possible formulation of a time-line based trading strategy for the next four to five months. Right now, I am executing a (EUO) short strategy based on the information in that insta.
    21 Aug 2010, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5156) | Send Message
     
    more iranian muscle:
    news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2...
    22 Aug 2010, 05:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    The good professor has it right, and his huge portfolio of work in this area is a must-read for those seriously seeking to understand the problems with electricity generation.

     

    I have read a good deal of his other articles pertaining to nuclear power and in particular to wind power, and his arguments are logical and persuasive.

     

    I have personally experienced the same odd behavior on the part of otherwise well-educated fans of wind power - that considerations like "cost" are instantly dismissed, or evaded with the usual dodge:

     

    "Clean air and water is priceless".

     

    True, true, we all desire those things, but the inference - that ONLY by adhering to the fanatic's devotion to wind power (or whatever unproven or hideously expensive alterntive they favor) can we save the planet, and maybe the human race.

     

    Like many claims that are so often repeated that they become the baseline mantra for "truth", the Danish wind power myth never goes away.

     

    Like global warming, this stepchild of the Goreacle now has a political following and WILL be pursued down the rabbit hole and through the looking glass, regardless of cost or sanity.

     

    As such, I now sadly but laughingly reiterate the key supporting role this plays in my REE investments.

     

    But do read whatever you can find from the Prof. His data is excellent, even if the current world environment favors fantasy over fact.
    22 Aug 2010, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Does everyone remember the Flash Crash? I know I will never forget it. Cost me money, from no fault of my own, and THAT I do not forget and do not forgive.

     

    Turns out that its pretty easy to eliminate 99.9% of the potential perpetrators, and the remaining .1% is well known...

     

    Because they have been paying for the privilege to conduct extralegal rapes like this for quite a while.

     

    If you never read another link I post, read this one:

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    22 Aug 2010, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18881) | Send Message
     
    I left a comment there that may be of interest. Would definitely be OT here.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Aug 2010, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Funny cartoon:

     

    townhall.com/cartoons/...
    22 Aug 2010, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TB - Excellent choice! I also liked this one:

     

    townhall.com/cartoons/...
    22 Aug 2010, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Yes. The Regime's strongarm tactics in that area are especially ineffective.

     

    Doubtless in their minds the best way to encourage job creation is to first plant your boots on the heads of the people doing most of the private sector hiring.
    22 Aug 2010, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Continuing to wade through the miliary thinktank space, where sometimes you can twig to the DOD policies and their basis...

     

    Interestingly, I am seeing the underpinnings of the logic behind the Bush-neocon stance on Iran, which was that the economic costs were too tough, so they put their public faith in diplomatic initiatives. HOWEVER its now apparent that they were simultaneously pretty sure that those initiatives would fail. The plan obviously revolved around Iran's big missile development program, which got a LOT of attention from the same folks developing policy to address a nuclear-armed Iran.

     

    Somewhere along the line the assumption was made that, though it would be impossible to pre-empt their nuclear ambitions, once they actually tried to ATTACH a warhead to their missiles, this could be identified (satellite imagery was prominently mentioned), and the missiles attacked and destroyed.

     

    Somehow, I can readily believe that this fractured logic IS what underlay the Bush strategy, and I further believe it is still alive and well with Voldemort and the Death Eaters.

     

    I say "fractured logic", because it is a logic trap so apparent it screams.

     

    It assumes so many things which are unlikely to be true...

     

    1. Iran will continue to develop their missile program in the open and publicly simply because they have done so (bragging, in fact) up to this point. What if they start hiding their tracks and concealing and hardening their launch sites? Wouldn't it be logical for them to take these precautionary steps?

     

    2. Iran will NOT seek to use their new nuclear weapons in ways OTHER THAN as ICBM warheads. What if they elect to utilize containerized freight as a delivery method instead of ICBM's? What if they build bombs for delivery from aircraft? What about converted commercial aircraft re-purposed as stealthy bombers?

     

    3. Iran will NOT simply supply nuclear devices to "independent contractor" terrorist organizations, who can deliver them as they wish, where they wish. What if one of the dozens of state sponsored terrorist organizations go around planting nucler devices in major cities in Israel, Europe and the United States?

     

    There are many more examples. This entire policy sector is riddled with problems.

     

    We are now being haunted by the failed Iran policies of the last 2 administrations, plus the current one.

     

    One final comment. Buried in the logic is the assumption that, if America is unwilling to "do something" about a nuclear armed Iran, that Israel WILL...

     

    By taking out Iran's nuclear ability WITH nuclear weapons.

     

    Wowza.

     

    Final note: I don't see ANY scenario in which the reason to procrastinate and do nothing (ie, economic dislocation due to disrupted oil shipments) is ultimately avoided - in fact, its hard to see where the future holds any LESS danger, and probably a lot more risk.
    22 Aug 2010, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • dfbell
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    "Voldemort and the Death Eaters?"

     

    Bye, this is no place for me.
    Take it to the ballot box.

     

    I happen to respect whoever we elect President.
    22 Aug 2010, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    townhall.com/news/busi...

     

    Those of us investing in Australian miners [(GDLNF.PK) and (LYSCF.PK)] should be mindful that Australia's recent elections have resulted in something of a hung jury.

     

    The score is looking like it might come down to the votes of 3 independent legislators, with both parties seeking their favor. All the votes have NOT been tabulated just yet, but already the situation is creating unrest that is likely to spill over into the Australian markets come Monday.

     

    The key issue appears to be Global Warming, combined with extensive political infighting within the Labor Party.

     

    IF the Liberal/Green coalition takes over, the odds are that the popular punishment for all carbon generating corporations will be back on the front burner.

     

    Just as we have discovered to our enduring cost, elections have consequences.
    22 Aug 2010, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Somehow this new proclamation from Ken Salazar, Sec. Int., got by me when it came out last week. My take is that by uprating the crisis to include the entire North American "continental shelf", ALL offshore drilling, anywhere in the United States, is under the gun:

     

    WASHINGTON, D.C. – Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEM) Director Michael R. Bromwich today announced that the department will restrict its use of categorical exclusions for offshore oil and gas development to activities involving limited environmental risk, while it undertakes a comprehensive review of its National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) process and the use of categorical exclusions for exploration and drilling on the Outer Continental Shelf.

     

    Director Bromwich and Secretary Salazar also announced that the Department of the Interior intends to conduct a new environmental analysis in the Gulf of Mexico that will help provide information to guide future leasing and development decisions. In the coming days, BOEM will publish a notice in the Federal Register of its intent to complete a supplemental environmental impact statement for the Gulf.

     

    “In light of the increasing levels of complexity and risk – and the consequent potential environmental impacts – associated with deepwater drilling, we are taking a fresh look at the NEPA process and the types of environmental reviews that should be required for offshore activity,” Secretary Salazar said. “We are committed to full compliance with both the letter and the spirit of NEPA. Our decision-making must be fully informed by an understanding of the potential environmental consequences of federal actions permitting offshore oil and gas development.”

     

    “The NEPA review and Gulf environmental analysis are central elements of our ongoing reform of the nation’s offshore energy development and regulatory program,” Director Bromwich said. “We are building a more robust and aggressive independent oversight agency based on the development of new tools and enhanced legal and regulatory authorities, as well as on the more aggressive use of existing tools. These changes in our regulatory framework and approach will serve to hold offshore operators accountable and ensure that the industry and the country are fully prepared to deal with catastrophic blowouts and oil spills like the Deepwater Horizon.”

     

    Today’s announcements follow the release of the Council on Environmental Quality’s (CEQ) report on the former Minerals Management Service’s NEPA program. The report was done in close consultation with Interior and BOEM which replaced the Minerals Management Service.

     

    BOEM will issue a Federal Register notice announcing a formal process for the comprehensive review and evaluation of its use of categorical exclusions in relation to offshore oil and gas exploration and drilling activities. While this review is underway, Director Bromwich noted, BOEM will be using categorical exclusions on a more limited basis. For actions that potentially involve more significant environmental risk, Interior officials intend to subject more decisions to environmental assessments.

     

    The limited use of categorical exclusions will allow BOEM to move forward with new permits under the Secretary’s NTL-05 and NTL-06, which notified offshore lessees that shallow water drilling activity could proceed as soon as they provide additional information about potential blowout scenarios and implement additional safety measures for rigs and platforms. Most deepwater drilling activities are currently prohibited by the moratorium, but Director Bromwich has instructed his staff not to use categorical exclusions to approve deepwater drilling activities similar to the Deepwater Horizon operation even after the moratorium is lifted.

     

    When the review is completed, BOEM will announce a new approach to NEPA compliance that takes into account the joint recommendations included in CEQ‘s report, statutory and/or regulatory constraints, and other appropriate factors. This is consistent with the Council’s regulations directing all federal agencies to periodically review their NEPA policies and procedures.

     

    Categorical exclusions are actions that do not individually or cumulatively have a significant effect on the human environment and for which neither an environmental assessment nor an environmental impact statement is required. The categorical exclusion process was established to reduce the amount of unnecessary paperwork and delay associated with NEPA compliance. If a certain type of federal action would not normally result in any environmental effects that are potentially significant, it is unnecessary to expend resources to repeatedly document that fact.

     

    However, exceptions to a categorical exclusion may arise and federal agencies are required to develop procedures to determine whether a normally excluded action may have a significant environmental effect. The Categorical Exclusion Review determines whether a proposal that is categorically excluded may meet any of the Department’s extraordinary circumstances criteria, requiring an environmental assessment or environmental impact statement.

     

    To read Director Bromwich’s memo, click here. The CEQ review, Report Regarding the Minerals Management Service’s National Environmental Policy Act Policies, Practices, and Procedures as They Relate to Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Exploration and Development, is online at CEQ Review and Report. More on the categorical exclusion process is online at www.boemre.gov/eppd/co....
    22 Aug 2010, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    LOL, ran across a bookmark and a "note to self" to track down how Dr. Phil Gray's 2010 hurricane predictions turn out. Dr. Gray, of course, is a huge booster for Global Warming (and coincidentally gets tons of funding from the topic).

     

    His prediction is that between June 1 and Nov 30, 2010 (the usual "Hurricane Season" for Atlantic storms), there will be 5 Major Hurricanes, out of 6-9 total hurricanes.

     

    We're almost exactly half way through Hurrican Season, so its a good time to check the scorecard...

     

    Number of hurricanes: 1, Hurricane Alex (struck Mexico)

     

    There is another tropical storm right now, Danielle, cruising around the South Atlantic. One to watch, of course.

     

    No way to tell what will happen over the next 3 months, but so far, so good. Maybe we will be lucky this year (and Dr. Phil, not so lucky - a few more years of this sort of result, and he might lose some warmist funds).

     

    Just protecting whatever trend is there, it seems likely that there will be another hurricane over the next 3 months.

     

    6-9 seems unlikely.
    22 Aug 2010, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6630) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please go to QC # 93:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    22 Aug 2010, 05:55 PM Reply Like
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