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Mark Bern, CFA
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Mark Bern (formerly K202) intends to continue writing solo and has shed other work-related relationships that required anonymity. CPA since 1990 a CFA charter holder since 2000. He has a bachelors degree in Business Admin. with a concentration in Economics. His experience includes both private... More
  • OG's Quick Chat # 98 - 9/7/2010 112 comments
    Sep 7, 2010 4:31 PM | about stocks: SPY
    OG has asked me to take over responsibility for the Quick Chats so that she can sort out some personal things.  OG will be back with us soon after her hiatus.. At that time she will resume posting QC Instablogs.  Until then, I will be your host.  Please be respectful and enjoy the liberty of this space.

    List of stocks mentioned in QC #97:

    (OTCQX:BPMSF), (NASDAQ:CLDX), (NASDAQ:CPST), (OTC:FRMSF), (NYSEMKT:GBG), (OTCPK:GDLNF), (OTCQX:GWMGF), (OTCQX:HUDRF), (OTCPK:LYSCF), (NYSE:MCP), (NYSE:NAT), (NASDAQ:NVAX), (NYSEMKT:PAL), (NYSE:SWC), (NYSE:SLW), (NYSEARCA:TBT), (NYSEARCA:TWM), (OTC:VTRAF)


    Disclosure: spxu, srs, twm, faz
    Stocks: SPY
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Comments (112)
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  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The last comment from QC # 97 was from User283977:

     

    "Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The jobless rate in the U.S. is likely to approach 10 percent in coming months as the economy fails to grow enough to employ people rejoining the labour force, economists said. tinyurl.com/2a2xxt3

     

    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures carved out a new settlement high Tuesday as investors bought up the precious metal and sold stocks, oil and the euro on renewed worries about European banks and economic growth. tinyurl.com/28refpj "
    7 Sep 2010, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Great day for my REE stocks.

     

    (GWMGF.PK) is up 13.38% to just over $.31.

     

    (LYSCF.PK) is up 10.00% to $1.10.

     

    (MCP) is up 12.82% to $22.00.

     

    (GDLNF.PK) up 2.85%.

     

    (HUDRF.PK) down 1.67%.

     

    Gold and silver also had a good day:

     

    (GBG) up 9.72%.

     

    (EDVMF.PK) up 13.18%.

     

    Most of my other precious pennies and (SLW) were up between 1 and 2%.

     

    It appears that the REE narrative is finally taking hold.
    7 Sep 2010, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Frankenstein Salmon:
    FDA considers approving genetically modified salmon for human consumption. From: The Washington Post by Lyndsey Layton

     

    The Food and Drug Administration is poised to approve the first genetically modified animal for human consumption, a highly anticipated decision that is stirring controversy and could mark a turning point in the way American food is produced. "Food from AquAdvantage Salmon (London stock exchange ABTX) is as safe to eat as food from other Atlantic salmon," the FDA staff wrote in a briefing document.

     

    AquAdvantage is an Atlantic salmon that has been given a gene from the ocean pout, an eel-like fish, which allows the salmon to grow twice as fast as a traditional Atlantic salmon. It also contains a growth hormone from a Chinook salmon. "We have found no biologically relevant difference between food from [AquaBounty salmon] and conventional Atlantic salmon," the FDA briefing documents said.

     

    But independent scientists, consumer groups and environmental organizations are concerned about both the pending decision and the process that the FDA uses to determine whether the genetically modified fish is safe for human health and the environment. The agency is evaluating the fish as if it were a new veterinary drug, which means the FDA's deliberations are behind closed doors and that AquaBounty can claim much of the research and other supporting data it supplies to the FDA is confidential.

     

    Consumer groups and environmental organizations are particularly concerned that AquAdvantage Salmon could escape their fish farms to threaten the wild salmon population, which is severely endangered. tinyurl.com/25cbmvr
    ______________________...
    Fooling around with the food chain is reckless. The addition of growth hormones and antibiotics in feedstock has resulted in deleterious effects in humans. For example, children are entering puberty faster, and our antibiotics are less effective. Americans should demand that anything slated for human consumption needs to be evaluated by criteria more stringent than the ones applied to laboratory rats.
    7 Sep 2010, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7888) | Send Message
     
    "When" not "if" they escape from thier pens. We can thank cronic wasting disease in the elk of colorado to an escape of the university in bolder colorado's study herd. How about killer bee's and the list can go on and on.

     

    When will we learn.
    7 Sep 2010, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "When" not "if" they escape from thier pens.

     

    So true. As Ian in Jurasic Park so eloquently put it: "Life will find a way."
    7 Sep 2010, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Parker-Hannifin has filed for a $300MM 3.5% note issuance due 9/15/2022, underwriting discount 0.675%.

     

    Recall that this is the supplier of the motors to be used in the prototype Class 8 ("18 wheeler" semi) that US 1 and Cal Motors are prototyping for trial with a CPST C65 MT as the on-board generator.

     

    Maybe need to do some ramping up of production?

     

    Thanks to Mrs. Waldo Cathcart over at Yahoo!, in this post

     

    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    for catching this. Folks like her make it worth wading through all the "yahoos" that reside over on that board.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Sep 2010, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    And free (otherwise useless) publicity noted by dbandie over @ Yahoo!

     

    stockpreacher.com/2010.../

     

    HardToLove
    7 Sep 2010, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
     
    Through shrewd market timing and a little bit of luck... I am now only 25% underwater on (CPST) ... LOL
    7 Sep 2010, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    I'm worse in my core. But for me it's an investment. My trading is all around that core.

     

    There've been some very nice moves on the charts recently and it's looking like the shorts' hammering has abated somewhat. If that situation holds a bit, we might see the two-day rally turn into something much longer. Today's volume was very nice and seems to confirm Friday's move up.

     

    It needs to close above $0.71 a couple days in a row on good volume to confirm. That should be enough to make the weekly look much better too.

     

    I closed my little round-tripper today - 8 days made ~3.4%. I'll be entering again tomorrow if the price touches ~$0.67 or $0.68 I guess.

     

    These trades are apart from my core.

     

    If it's any consolation, Jaggers (one of the directors) bought 100K a few days back and today there was another 357.5K trade in one minute @$0.70 - $0.7041.

     

    Some savvy whales are jumping in right now and the shorts still have a long way to go to get covered.

     

    Small-cap speculative stocks like this require patience if you are trying to invest rather than trade. Beta of 1.6 really says it all.

     

    I know none of this is consolation (especially for me since I feel somewhat culpable for introducing this), but if your risk is small and your patience large, you can't really get badly hurt... right?

     

    HardToLove
    7 Sep 2010, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
     
    No absolutely, HTL. You are right. I was really just joking anyway. I mean I AM down 25% but its a small investment for me and it is exactly that -- an investment. I looked at some of the things you linked to and read what you were saying and decided it looked like an interesting play. Like you I love stocks with long days to cover, as the squeeze potential is great.

     

    Keep up your great coverage of this stock. I am riding what I have to see what happens. I won't give you any of the credit to my friends if this turns into a multi-bagger, so why should you take any of the blame ;)
    7 Sep 2010, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    " I won't give you any of the credit to my friends if this turns into a multi-bagger, so why should you take any of the blame ;) "

     

    LoL!

     

    You have no idea how much that made me smile this A.M. Thank you for that!

     

    HardToLove
    8 Sep 2010, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    finance.yahoo.com/news...=

     

    A hint that hewhomustnotbenamed is at least trying to save some jobs...

     

    Democrat Congressional jobs, but hey those ARE jobs, right?

     

    LOL, anyway, the major initiative is an oddly puny program to encourage American companies to invest in capital items now rather than later. The idea is to allow companies to treat capital purchases as 100% deductible against their 2010 or 2011 taxes. This encourages them to eliminate American jobs and replace them with Japanese, German and Chinese machines now...

     

    Er, I don't think that is the logic that Voldemort and his Death Eaters might WANT us to utilize, but hey, when you play connect the dots sometimes you get a surprise.

     

    Anyway, its not a really horrible idea, it just needs to be angled to mention that to get 100% writeoffs, you have to buy AMERICAN made equipment. LOL, no chance of that happening, of course...

     

    The incredibly insulting, really, proposal that maybe, just maybe, we should spend about 5% of the money we porked away on non-stimulus over the last year to create jobs now (of all times, I wonder why its suddenly a problem NOW?) on ACTUAL infrastructure (roads, railways, airports, you know, physcial infrastructure) is a non-surprise. Predictable. Boring, even.

     

    Sure, we SHOULD have done those things years ago, and again, with a provision that buying high speed trains from China to be installed by French engineers supervised by German architects is NOT how it should be done... Oh well, maybe they will hire a few ACORN members to handle PR and roadside security.

     

    I guess I just suffer from a lack of faith in Washington.
    7 Sep 2010, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7888) | Send Message
     
    TB you have the same faith the rest of us have. We are all atheists when it comes to Washington.

     

    I will be there this weekend. Want me to deliver your message!
    7 Sep 2010, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Yes. One word: FairTax.

     

    I remember talking to a college professor (now rumored to be running for Presdent) years ago about communicating ideas to the Federal Government. He told me that at one point when he had experienced a surprising failure of a concept that was almost blindlingly logical, he went around with a hundred dollar bill in his hand and challenged all the Congressmen he met to define the central term (literally, a definition of an idea encapsulated in every English dictionary on Earth). That's all, just demonstrate a working knowledge of the concept of the WORD which underlay the simple Bill they had just voted down.

     

    He lost very few hundred dollar bills in Washington DC.

     

    When some of his old students visited his office at a later date and he told this story, we challenged him to repeat that offer, which he laughingly demurred.

     

    So toss the power-phrase in there, and watch the reactions. If they can accurately define, on the spot, the key provisions of the concept, I will be shocked.
    7 Sep 2010, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Here is something that expresses my opinion far more eloquently than I can write it… the link is courtesy of today's "The Mole".

     

    tinyurl.com/24xvtqz
    7 Sep 2010, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Oh, and I forgot to mention the R&D thingee. Companies doing R&D get tax credits to help with the heavy lifting. You know, all those companies that USED to be American companies or who are now outsourcing R&D to Mexico and India (where its a LOT less likely they will get sued by Death Eaters, er, lawyers).

     

    Also I didn't mention the vague answers when Voldemort is asked how all these things will be paid for. The usual list of safe answers finally emerged: new taxes on business (to pay for tax breaks for business, anyone else see a snake swallowing its tail in this?) - new taxes on oil and energy companies (and we all know they never pass along any of these costs to consumers, right?) - new taxes on large corporations (ditto).

     

    Same ol', same ol', y'all.

     

    Remember that great song from the Who: "...don't get fooled again".
    7 Sep 2010, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    "I guess I just suffer from a lack of faith in Washington"

     

    When you've lived long enough to have casually looked behind one too many doors, you learn not to open them for examination without a good degree of skepticism and, maybe, a double-ought shotgun.

     

    D.C. has a *whole* bunch of doors that we might need to look behind. You've just examined one more, and "well done!" is what I say.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Sep 2010, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6775) | Send Message
     
    "Pay no attention to the old man behind the curtain" (door).
    8 Sep 2010, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7888) | Send Message
     
    "new taxes on business (to pay for tax breaks for business)"

     

    Obama wisdom at it's finest moment and with such clarity that even the simpleton amongst us should be able to see the incredible talents of our leader.

     

    Barf bag please.
    7 Sep 2010, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    This took place here in Denver, and was directed at then candidate John McCain, but the audio about sums it up.

     

    www.youtube.com/watch?...

     

    Georgette became quite the minor celebrity around here for a few weeks.
    7 Sep 2010, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Si - The lady is soooo right! Thanks for sharing that clip. It is priceless.
    8 Sep 2010, 05:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This makes just as much sense as spending our way out of debt (the other mantra of our beloved leader).
    7 Sep 2010, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    I have a neighbor named Joe. He's a quirky nice old chap who is a WWII vet, and whose health has eroded quite noticably over the past year.

     

    Joe needs a dialysis treatment everyday. An ambulance comes, and a few hours later returns. Knowing from personal experience how much that ambulence costs, ($750, roundtrip) we taxpayers are paying $273,750 per year for merely taking Joe to and from his treatments.

     

    I don't want to deny old Joe his treatments, but can't we think of a less costly way for his transportation?

     

    7 Sep 2010, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, even if you contacted MediCare and offered to take him for half the amount, they'd just turn you down and brand you a nut.
    7 Sep 2010, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
     
    I tried to talk about this last year but I don't think I expressed myself very well.

     

    I don't believe in rationing per se (or the logical extension of that the dreaded death panel), but we do have finite resources to devote to care for the sick and elderly. What's worse is bureaucratic measures designed to ensure quality and safety drive the cost of services up even further. Plus they introduce the inefficiencies germane to any bureaucracy. There is every reason in the world we should try to provide dialysis to an old guy, especially a WWII vet for goodness sakes. But there is also a barrier at some level to what we can provide and there is the challenge of equivalencies -- in other words what would the money spent here accomplish if it were devoted elsewhere.

     

    I don't think we've even come close to wrapping our heads around an approach to the practical limits of care and affordability issues. Heck, even families struggle with their finite ability to provide care versus their infinite compassion for a needy family member, how will we ever be able to reasonably resolve as a society what is still so challenging to us on a personal level?

     

    To me this is the elephant in the room. We can talk insurance and malpractice reform all day long, but the big question is how we define the limits of what we can provide to everyone.
    8 Sep 2010, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    "To me this is the elephant in the room. We can talk insurance and malpractice reform all day long, but the big question is how we define the limits of what we can provide to everyone"

     

    Alternately, w can talk about the limits of waste and government-provided vs. private charity-provided.

     

    Obviously, $750 RT *mandated* by government refusal to take advantage of just as effective, but much less costly alternatives, is a prime example of waste.

     

    Government has squeezed out many of the services that were once provided by private charity. Let's hope they never squeeze out meals on wheels and similar private charity efforts (it *is* still private isn't it?).

     

    Before government took over the whole of medical care, doctors and hospitals used to provide services with pricing on ability to pay. Lees-well-off were charged less and more-well-off were charged more. Everybody knew, most had no complaint about it and all received some level of needed service.

     

    Somewhere along the line everyone began to see "The Best Possible Outcome Regardless of Cost" as a God-given "right", doctors deserved yachts, ...

     

    In short, the whole "well being" industry got converted from an integral part of our social mores to a for-profit business model. From there it was only a short step, being a monopoly business model, to ever escalating costs to society and elimination (mostly) of the charitable activities.

     

    It's as if the materialistic for-profit mantra became the moral foundation of our society, supplanting various others value systems. This made business the driving force in our world, rather than basic social tenets that existed prior to this conversion.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Sep 2010, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6775) | Send Message
     
    It may be cheaper if the "community" transported people like Joe instead of putting it on the "government."

     

    After all, we can all expect to be in that position some day.
    8 Sep 2010, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Let's hope they never squeeze out meals on wheels and similar private charity efforts (it *is* still private isn't it?)."

     

    HTL - I believe that at least some of these programs already get government funding. Meals on Wheels was replaced where I live by a federally funded program for shut ins. I usually deliver in January and February when no one else wants to, but the point is that volunteers are still needed to do the delivery while the food is paid for with taxes. At least that is how it works so far here.

     

    I can see how it could become a "Job" created by government with volunteers needed to fill in during vacation and sick time for the new government drivers. It only takes about 1 1/2 hours a day, but if they stretch it out it could take more like three and that's a long time for a government employee to work so it will probably be termed full time with benefits at some point. Well, it would get people off the unemployment rolls, wouldn't it? Lord help us if they are monitoring our comments! :>)
    8 Sep 2010, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have friends who provide such services to others in the community because the others insurance will not cover the ambulance service for the full year. These are people who, for whatever reason, are not on Medicare. I suspect that they are not destitute yet and don't qualify.
    8 Sep 2010, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    DM: Also...the last time my mother used an ambulance delivery system, the EMTs had a new litter, all tricked out, flashing lights, electronic hydrolic system; cost $20.000!

     

    I asked the EMTs if they like their new guerny; "No!" one replied.

     

    Why?

     

    "It weighs about 20 lbs. more than the old one."

     

    Who pays for the sh*t?

     

    We all do.

     

    Also, my mother had to go directly from the doc's office to the hospital. Since she was not coming home, as planned, the ambulance service tried to charge another $750. We argued, and won, even though she was covered.

     

    It's the principle, to me.

     

    Of course, they charged another $400 to bring her home. Just like the airlines, one way trips cost more than half for a round trip.
    8 Sep 2010, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Agriculture related stocks:

     

    Lindsay Manufacturing (LNN), which specializes in automated agricultural irrigation systems,
    Titan Machinery (TITN)
    Art’s-Way Manufacturing Co. (ARTW).
    7 Sep 2010, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OG - VMI also makes irrigation systems. Both Lindsay and Valmont were my clients when I was a sales rep in the transportation industry. VMI is also into towers, coatings, and engineered support structures, so it is not such a pure play. But they ship one heck of a lot of irrigation systems. It's been a long time, so I'd have to go back to both 10k reports to determine which makes the system in greater demand today. My sister just sold her farm out in Nebraska and she has told me how much more efficient the drip systems are over the sprayers it isn't even funny. Those are the systems now in greatest demand, I believe because the maintenance is much lower cost and they use far less water with better results (crop yields).
    8 Sep 2010, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    OG: Add in (CAGC), down 17.13%. Very interesting what's going on with this stock, as we have analyst, Charden Capital Markets saying today this is a $9.00 stock, and Rodman and Renshaw saying it's a $20.00 stock.

     

    Is it too much to suspect "disinformation" going on?
    8 Sep 2010, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    The problem with healthcare is that it is tied to business and to government. If employers were not responsible for providing policies, and the government exited the health care business, than personal policies would be available in all kinds of combinations-- bare bones policies for healthy people who don't want lots of benefits, and cadillac policies for those who want more. People would be rewarded for good healthy decisions. You would be responsible for your own choices and could control costs better. You'd be the decision maker, not some clerk.
    We could eliminate the complexity, give businesses less of an administrative burden, and get the govt monkeys off our backs.
    I'm all for privatizing health care.
    My husband had a maternity benefit on his last business policy. It wasn't very expensive but he couldn't opt out of that part. Why should that be? You know any 64 year old man that needs maternity benefits? I wasn't on that policy, just he was. Absurd.
    8 Sep 2010, 05:03 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6775) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, the more bureaucracy, the less choice.
    8 Sep 2010, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    HDY, RMCP, GWM, AGNC.

     

    HDY has one heck of an interesting chart, volume suggests a breakout to new 52 wk highs. RMCP on the move, You track GWM yourselves but my take on it is that broke a year long downtrend, went down to it and is back o moving up.

     

    AGNC is of particular interest. it is sitting at the top of a long trading range. I believe it has a good chance of breaking above it to at least the 15% yield area, currerntly at 20%.
    8 Sep 2010, 05:11 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Buying more (SLW) today. I will also be adding to my (EUO) short position today.
    8 Sep 2010, 06:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I'm adding (SLW) today too.

     

    User, have you done an overlay chart of (EUO) and (TWM)? Or (TZA) if you can do the triple threats in your account (I can't)?

     

    The market sector etf's like (TWM) are a lot more volatile than the currency etfs, but since the beginning of August they have outperformed.
    8 Sep 2010, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Looking like a low-volume consolidation day so far. Unlikely that we'll see a move down to my re-entry point ($0.67-$0.68) or a breakout above $0.71 (woulod be anm entry signal if volume was continuing to grow).

     

    In other notes, we at last have evidence that a *major* distributor (UTX's PureConfort brand) that invested R&D $ in CPST over the last couple of years is starting to market and having some success.

     

    Thx to microt1000 @ Yahoo! in this post
    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    we get a link to some marketing stuff that lists a Walmart experimental store using CPST and the Ronald Reagan library.

     

    www.sobono.com.sg/pure...

     

    HardToLove
    8 Sep 2010, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Sold (EDVMF.PK) and (HUDRF.PK).

     

    Took profits on (GPRLF.PK).

     

    Bought (SLW) and (MAPRS).

     

    (GWMGF.PK) news - September 7, 2010 -- (Source: Marketwire) -- Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:GWG) (OTCQX:GWMGF) ("GWMG" or the "Company") announces that it has closed a private placement of $3,000,000 (Cdn.) of secured subordinated debentures of the Company (the "Debentures"), subject to regulatory approval.

     

    Subsequent to closing the private placement, GWMG has purchased approximately 20.8% of the shares of Rare Earth Extraction Co. Limited ("Rareco") of Stellenbosch, South Africa for a price of approximately $3,000,000 (Cdn.).

     

    The Debentures are not convertible, bear interest at a rate of 12% per year and were issued at a price of $1,000 per Debenture. Each lender shall receive 500 common shares of the Company as a commitment fee for every $1,000 of Debentures purchased.

     

    A cash commission equal to 2.0% of the aggregate gross proceeds of the Debentures was paid to Byron Securities Limited of Toronto who acted as the exclusive agent in connection with the offering of the Debentures.

     

    Jim Engdahl, President and CEO of Great Western Minerals Group said, "Successfully closing this Debenture offering moves our company one more significant step down the path to being the first fully integrated Rare Earths producer outside of China. The purchase of these shares of Rareco, alongside our previously signed Off-take agreement under which our Company can access 100% of the Rare Earth Products produced by Rareco and its subsidiaries from ore mined at Rareco's Steenkampskraal mine, keeps our Company right on track in the execution of our strategic plan." [quote]

     

    Ree stocks on the rise again today.
    8 Sep 2010, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, bought (MARPS). Darn typo.
    8 Sep 2010, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, blame on the poor innocent typo rather than the typoist! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    8 Sep 2010, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): maybe I'll get a shot today. Either someone is taking profit or shorts start to try to push down - low volume presents the perfect opportunity.

     

    At 12:06, 103.4K shares traded, *every* case was accept the bid, not one trade matched the offer. Subsequently, intra-day low was made, and as usual, no sign of recovery yet.

     

    If it's shorts, two likely scenarios present. One is they idle for a while, see continued lack of volume with upward pressure and hit it again, possibly getting us below the mid $0.68 to my $0.67 area before they start to cover.

     

    If upward pressure with volume is seen (not likely today), they just start covering or walk away until another day.

     

    Right now, the set up for scenario 1 is working. Eyes open for later activity if you want to add some by taking advantage of the next "hammer" by the shorts.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Sep 2010, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Well, shorts seem to have been spooked in the 5 minutes at 12:40. A small volume uptick started, ~12K shares, and then a *huge* buying spree occurred, driving the price up almost a full penny. Shares traded were 117.6K during that period while today's total volume to now is 845.2K.

     

    Likely I'll have to wait to start another round-trip unless the shorts want to do it again this afternoon.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Sep 2010, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Surprise! GDP estimates for the remainder of 2010 and all of 2011 have been lowered yet again! Anyone noticing a trend? Initial estimates are always rosy and then adjusted lower each month, just like earnings estimates. The Wall Street Game continues. How much lower will estimates for Q3 & Q4 be when the actual initial government estimates come out? And how much lower will the government estimates need to be revised when all is done? The blatant manipulation of information flow is really rasping my squatting apparatus.

     

    news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20...
    8 Sep 2010, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6775) | Send Message
     
    The more like Wall St. earnings estimates the GDP "estimates" are, the less useful they'll be.
    8 Sep 2010, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Estimates for the third quarter GDP in June were 2.6%. By September estimates dropped to 1.8%. That's a 31% "correction" from the original estimate.

     

    According to the article, the most current estimated GDP for the forth quarter is 2.1%. That's an increase of 16.7% from their most recent GDP third quarter estimate (1.8%). I think a more likely estimate is one that is less than 1.8%.
    8 Sep 2010, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oft times the holiday season gives GDP a boost. Higher retail sales, more transportation of goods to market, higher energy use as stores stay open longer (plus more used by transportation) and all the decorations in the streets an in/on homes, all the holiday parties gives a boost to restaurants, travel home for Thanksgiving & Christmas (am I allowed to use that term here?LOL), and the bars usually do better during the cold winter season, too. If GDP shrinks in Q4 from Q3 this year, we are heading into some deep doodoo.
    8 Sep 2010, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
     
    Yes, that should be where we can expect our economic recovery... In the bars! See you there.
    9 Sep 2010, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    has anyone taken a look at ((GSM)I'd be interested in opinions on that one.
    8 Sep 2010, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I like the looks of (GSM), as a basic materials play, rather than as an alternative energy play. I believe their bread and butter silicon metal business will endure, but the portion dedicated to solar cell technology is liable to be short-lived as newer, more advanced technology requiring different materials takes hold.

     

    The Forward PE at 15.12 is about right for them, so it seems like its not understated. They are such a young company (2009 IPO) that most of their stock is still being held by the companies that brought them to market (Luxor, Planfield, and Shaw Laminar). 72.5% of their shares are held by institutions, and another 5.82% by insiders.

     

    They are heavily dependent on the American market (65% of revenues), with Europe also big for them (21%) followed by South America. WIth their primary facilities centered in the U.S., Poland and Brazil (though they have a small presence in China), they are not particularly well positioned as far as the "center of manufacturing mass" for the existing silicon metal market growth pattern, which is of course centered on Asia.

     

    They are ALMOST profitable (or at least, that's how I read their financials), which is quite good, really, given they have been trying mightily to establish themselves against a considerable economic headwind.

     

    I would expect to see a 20% pullback in their stock during the coming downturn, IF it occurs, and would consider them a good buy in the $9 range.
    8 Sep 2010, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    I had my eye on this company a while back-- New Energy Technologies (NENE). They will be unveiling their first of it's kind see-through glass solar technology on September 16th. I have an order in for a few thousand shares. Stock is up 7.49% on low volume:

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...=
    8 Sep 2010, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    I just heard about them too Maya. I may look a little deeper. How cool would it be to have skylights and non-eye-level windows generate electricity?
    8 Sep 2010, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Z: I did manage to get some shares at today's closing price. We'll see how this news cycle trade works. Only trying to chase down a few hundred bucks.
    8 Sep 2010, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): added 4K for round-trip trade @ $0.6752 ($0.6802 RT break-even).

     

    HardToLove
    8 Sep 2010, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
     
    If anyone feels like checking out my take on Apple's Ping, I've posted an insta here:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    I am trying to do a few instablog's so that I can get an article accepted here. Thanks to Mark for commenting already.
    8 Sep 2010, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Hey DM! I can't recall if I put this out there or not. Might help you do better on (CPST). I just discovered this feature a few days ago. It doesn't spout the gospel, but it can provide some pointers. This is the free version.

     

    www.nasdaq.com/asp/sto...

     

    HardToLove
    8 Sep 2010, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
     
    Very cool HTL. Lots of info there.
    9 Sep 2010, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Triple- My thoughts about the "alt nrg" portion of GSM is... it all depends on govt largesse to make it work. However, silicon long term, well that it already a protected area for US companies, and China will have to keep more of its own production long term. I like that part. I agree with you about the price, too. I will get in it on a down day.

     

    It all depends what happens in the midterm elections. So far, it seems Hippo Potomus (his programs are as ferocious as a hippo) doesn't seem to be doing anything to move toward the center. It looks to me that the alienation is continuing. We could have quite a rally if the democrats lose some seats.
    8 Sep 2010, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking that we still don't know what sort of reaction to expect from either the White House or the Democrat-Led Congress after a defeat in the mid-term elections.

     

    I have a "bad" reaction dialed into my heavy cash position right now, but hey, if I'm wrong I've got my buy lists all polished up and ready to go.

     

    For ANY rally to be meaningful, we MUST see a large chunk of the cash sitting on the sidelines enter the game, and we need to see major outflows from bonds, too. Just another round of Da Boyz selling to each other in a volume vacuum just means its all a fake.

     

    I truly hope I'm wrong. Being wrong means I'll NOT make quite as much of a profit short term, but a LOT more long term as the markets leave their current undead zombie state and come back to life.
    8 Sep 2010, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I think that's correct OG... the rally will likely start as preliminary polls start to come out.
    8 Sep 2010, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
     
    I worry about "buy the rumor, sell the news". What if the Republican gains are already priced in to the market. What happens when folks "sell the news"? Could get ugly.
    9 Sep 2010, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Yes, DM, that is why I am sitting on 91% cash.

     

    I believe that much of the dark plan I have been operating under for the past 6 months has already occurred. Several strong down legs have beaten up the markets - equity volumes have imploded - bond volumes have exploded - and the prospect of massive equity redemptions fleeing from the coming taxes has already largely taken place.

     

    The macro economy has ground to a halt, with virtually zero growth, deteriorating job markets, and the business climate operating in a poisonous atmosphere.

     

    I believe that any jubiliation on the Right which might occur as a result of a political victory has, indeed, already been baked into the pie - while the depression which will occur on the Left appears to be well advanced as well. The shifts in attitude after the elections will be mere punctuation to the already established trends. Net flows in and out of equities and bonds are liable to cancel one another out to a net nothing, beyond maintaining the current trends involving major institutions, who are changing the very definition of a "balanced portfolio", swapping bonds for equities.

     

    Halting the march away from equities and into bonds will require a major political shift to act as a trigger - something much more dramatic than, say, the move to center which we saw with Clinton after his mid-term election disaster. This COULD happen, but I would not bet on it.
    9 Sep 2010, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think that most, if not all, of the surge we have had in equities recently can be attributed to pricing in a Republican victory. It would have been better had it not been for the exiting of those with significant capital gains, especially for those "rich" people who may not get their portion of the Bush tax cuts extended, taking profits now rather than after the first of the year. There is still too much unknown in the economy right now for them to expect better days soon, so why not take out some of that money now while we have a little rally.

     

    There could be more of that going on as we get closer to year end now that there is the expectation of at least a partial changing of the guard in Congress because some will be waiting for the jump after the election. I'm with DM on this one. I'm not so sure the jump will come then. I think it may have already happened.
    9 Sep 2010, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Just so its clear, I have been expecting a bounce for a while now (I would characterize what we see now as that bounce, though running about 3 weeks behind schedule), and a drop in the markets both before and after the election. (With a good chance for a Christmas Present market sandwiched in between).

     

    It all balances, however, on WHAT comes out of Washington. There's always room for intelligence, common sense, and sound approaches to solving our problems. Any evidence of any of these can alter the dynamic.

     

    So far, I am sad to report that the constant stream of idiocy emanating from Washington DC continues apace.
    9 Sep 2010, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "There's always room for intelligence, common sense, and sound approaches to solving our problems."

     

    TB - Good luck with finding that coming out of Washington, DC!
    9 Sep 2010, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7888) | Send Message
     
    Mark,
    Touche. My sentiments exactly.
    9 Sep 2010, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11015) | Send Message
     
    The issue of healthcare is hitting the right on the mark. The healthcare package was essentially shoveling a tax on businesses to provide a wish list of benefits. It is no wonder the market has stalled. Not only has the medical field cut back over worries of the ultimate fallout of healthcare reform, businesses have ceased hiring in fear of the overall impact to profit margins due to this legislation as it is phased in. Many have chosen to thin their ranks even more.
    To think this would not delay a recovery is just silly. Rather than another stimulus package, all we really needed is government was for it to do nothing at all.
    8 Sep 2010, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6775) | Send Message
     
    "Don't tax you, don't tax me."
    Tax that [business] behind the tree."

     

    Huey Long (who said something similar to the above) would have been proud.
    9 Sep 2010, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Following up on a developing story brought up by SA member, Venerability, and TB, the US is going to begin hearings next week about persuading/threatening China to allow the yuan to rise more quickly against the dollar.

     

    I know these are only hearings, but I do wonder if China will play along, otherwise, US trade deficit induced tariffs coming? If China does play along, this could be very good for US markets, especially commodities.

     

    www.bloomberg.com/news...
    8 Sep 2010, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    China will not cooperate. They can't. If one accepts their public pronouncements of constant triumph and huge growth at face value, yes, it would seem they have ample room to cooperate with such a reasonable request. The problem is not dissimilar to that experienced by our own government over the past 3 years - China is now so tangled up in their devious plans and lies that they are painted into a very nasty corner.

     

    The timing could not be more preciously bad. JUST as they are trying to figure a way to let down the pressure in their massive real estate ponzi bubble - while simultaneously backing down manufacturing which threatens to fill every warehouse and go-down in China with unsaleable goods - their key trading partners come calling demanding help that will make those really bad problems much, much worse.
    9 Sep 2010, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, lost part of the last message:

     

    China will elect to seek delays (the recent "flexible yuan" announcement was and obvious ploy), and when they play out, they will enter into the resulting titfortat trade fracas in a manner to also extend the low level conflict as long as possible.

     

    I believe they will eventually work through their issues, but that it will take years, perhaps 4 or 5 (or more), before a stable situation is achieved.

     

    The American political class WILL seize upon the Chinese currency peg to the dollar as a political issue (this will be particularly true for those seeking to placate the organized labor base, which is hard hit by imports). This is a political inevitability, and it rises to the top at some point in every recent election.

     

    China will do the best they can, using American political stupidity to their advantage with their coming domestic problems. Blaming domestic pain on geopolical adversaries is not, LOL, something isolated to American politicos!
    9 Sep 2010, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "China will do the best they can, using American political stupidity"

     

    TB - The Chinese certainly have a lot to work with there!
    9 Sep 2010, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Yes. Lamentably, I find myself predicting my home team's defeat once again.

     

    It's our own fault, of course. We keep hiring fools to work for us, and wonder why it doesn't work out...

     

    Maybe this round will mark an improvement. They might look good if only by comparison. Talk about building upon the shoulders of midgets...
    9 Sep 2010, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    If GM can say that in one year their goodwill is worth in excess of $30 billion, then I hereby declare myself worth $50 billion.

     

    Think of the good will I create. I'm basically unemployed, and have never collected unemployment, yet have managed to give and give old threadbare clothing to Purple Heart, helped out the local bartenders and servers with tips, all while spreading around some of my hard earned money in an impoverished third world country.

     

    Yep! $50 billion, sounds good to me!
    8 Sep 2010, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
     
    And I can say "I knew you when" ... or something. Congrats on your fortune. You do realize the taxman will be round tomorrow for his share :)
    9 Sep 2010, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    The tax man will do OK. Maya can pay him with that "goodwill". So at current rates, what's that leave him? About $25B of goodwill?

     

    He can still eat well on that. And is still just as lovable! Having money hasn't ruined him one whit!

     

    HardToLove
    9 Sep 2010, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Peter Schiff's latest videoblog contains his theory of the aftermath of the elections--what he calls "bipartisanship"-- just in time to contribute to our speculation!
    www.europac.net/media/...
    9 Sep 2010, 04:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think that Schiff is right about the weakness of the US$, but it seems like a long-term play. I don't think that we are on the precipice and about to fall off. I expect it to be a gradual move that eventually gains momentum. There is just too much market manipulation going on to call the timing of the fall.
    9 Sep 2010, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    True. And the biggest problem is that all the major players are operating from the same playbook.

     

    China, Japan, the U.S. and Europe are ALL liable to start a race to the bottom simultaneously. China is still a long way away from transforming into a mature, developed service economy. Without exports their economy implodes. Germany is in a similar boat. Japan MUST have exports as well, and they are going to be taking dramatic intervention steps to drive down the value of the yen. Europe's structural problems (most famously in the Eurozone, but also in Eastern Europe) are potentially severe enough to tear the international financial system to pieces.

     

    The truth that America has problems does NOT translate into an automatic confirmation of dollar weakness. When ALL major fiat currencies depreciate simultaneously, the winning bet is not to play with Forex, but to keep invested in major commodities consumed and valued by the world's economies.

     

    While the fiat currencies are digging their own graves in a race to Hades, commodities will command the markets.
    9 Sep 2010, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    This IS the rally, imo. And yes, I expect it to be short lived. I am more invested than Triple- I am at 2/3 cash, all the long stuff is hedged by sales of call options ( I positioned that on July 29th) and I have two small positions in short etf's just to be in it.

     

    Triple, you said you took profits on Great Panther and put that into more Silver Wheaton? How come?

     

    Incidentally, Viterra was rated an outperform at Credit Suisse.
    Yeah, baby.

     

    Mark Bern, I think shorting the US dollar would be a very long term play, decades long!
    9 Sep 2010, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OG - I think you are very right about the US$. It is a much longer term investment than Schiff seems to imply. At least that is my sense also. Everything in currencies is relative so it will take more stability in the other major currencies for the US$ to weaken appreciably. Fortunately (or unfortunately, as the case may be) Japan and Europe are also in pretty bad shape with recovery looking pretty elusive for them as well. We are the marketplace for every other industrialized nation on earth (except those who send raw materials to China), so as long as we are down and not seeing consumption rising the rest of the world will have difficulty recovering as well.
    9 Sep 2010, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    No, OG, those events were coincidental, not related. I had stopped out of my customary SLW position a while back, so I am underweight (SLW) and have been adding back steadily to bring it back to where it needs to be. I took profits from Great Panther simply because it hit that point where I start taking profits. I have also been taking profits from the REEs, even (GWMGF.PK), and some of the precious pennies and RTs, for the same reason.

     

    But I still have about 100% of my original (GPRLF.PK), dollar investment, just fewer shares.

     

    The miners/metals I am currently holding include: (GBG), (BPMSF.PK), (ETRUF.PK), (FRMSF.PK), (GPRLF.PK), (KGILF.PK), (MXOM), (PAL), (SLW), (GWMGF.PK), (MCP), (LYSCF.PK), (GDLNF.PK), (EOXFF.PK), and (NATUF.PK).
    9 Sep 2010, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    News from Viterra ( they reported yesterday) (VTRAF.PK)
    www.reuters.com/articl...
    9 Sep 2010, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    there is an SA article citing what the author calls a Triple (TB) Top in GDX.

     

    What I see is a rising wedge, ever higher lows.

     

    for further analysis, I cite the GDXJ, which has broken to new highs, I suggest that the GDX will follow.
    9 Sep 2010, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I agree. In fact, I am seeing this rising wedge (with higher lows) in several commodities, not just Gold.

     

    The trends point toward a point of decision soon.

     

    Silver has now hit my $20 goal for 2010, and the signs are good that Gold will run to $1300 this year as well.
    9 Sep 2010, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    I am burnt out, just really mentally tired.

     

    Thats why the visits are infrequent, hell, I don't even look at Emails very often, just the subj and move on.

     

    A sabatical is in order.

     

    But not to worry, One Eye (Odin) is chomping to get into the Fray while Freya rests :)
    9 Sep 2010, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    Think about the above, he is definitely a letch.
    9 Sep 2010, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I am looking forward to seeing One Eye's return :)

     

    I know what you mean Freya... Perhaps its time to play some games.
    Hope you refresh soon :)
    9 Sep 2010, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    LOL… Dollar-bullish ETF (UUP) nears death cross
    tinyurl.com/2avypkl

     

    What else can they add to this giant pile of …
    9 Sep 2010, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    I am going to hold onto silver thru December. $21 an ounce is around the corner (imo).
    Indian wedding season + Christmas, big time for silver this year.

     

    And for another matter, Lots of noise about that Iranian nuclear enrichment facility today.
    Here's a link:
    www.foxnews.com/politi.../

     

    Third thing: Is it really possible some guy with 50 followers will burn the Koran and set the world afire? Really? That's a bigger danger than nuclear enrichment in Iran to endanger U.S. Citizens and our military around the world?

     

    Lastly,(saving the most important for the end) feel good, Freya.
    9 Sep 2010, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I am very close to the percentage I want to maintain for silver right now, and should the stock values jump upwards, I will be taking profits from now through Christmas.

     

    Gold also, though I am expecting a less robust percentage increase there compared to what has happed to silver.

     

    I will be adding oil and gas over the same period, depending on how I view pricing. Current valuations are attractive, since I believe the prices are cheap, particularly for oil. Stocks sporting oil depletion allowances and tax advantages (royalty trusts, pipeline opertors, etc) are likely to lead the pack when investors begin regrouping after the tax changes take effect in 2011.
    9 Sep 2010, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7888) | Send Message
     
    Oh Gee. set some stops or trailing stops on your silver. I have set my stops at $19.48 2 days ago as that was just below first support of 19.52 that day. I assume if it goes through that point it will continue down. If we get any large up ticks I will reset my stops.
    9 Sep 2010, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    thanks, DB!
    9 Sep 2010, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I expect the next leg down to commence with another Flash Crash, so be advised, this will scrape you out of your stops in a millisecond (been there, done that). Then the markets will recover, quicker than you can place replacement orders (and even quicker than replacement orders already in the pipeline can be executed). And that's assuing that the circuit breakers don't trip (they will, long after they can do anything except disrupt the markets) and close down your ability to trade anything.

     

    Most of my stops executed FAR below their designated price. They were in a tail chase with a quant algorithm, and lost.

     

    HOWEVER I still use stop orders, though much looser than I used to, with the thought that the next Flash Crash will not be larger than 10%.

     

    And yes, I am bitter with the fact that I now spend most of my time trying to outguess market manipulators - shadowy puppet masters - and the intentions of malign governments instead of just trying to manage my capital to make a profit.
    10 Sep 2010, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    In today's 5 Minute Forecast (from Agora) it states the reason the jobs number looked better is because a bunch of states missed reporting their numbers, attributable to the long weekend. Apparently having a long weekend when you work for a state government takes the word "labor" out of "Labor Day".
    9 Sep 2010, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    19 states. I expect revisions to the bad side when the real nhumbers get put in.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Sep 2010, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6775) | Send Message
     
    Always the "good" numbers first, then the real (bad) numbers later.

     

    Hoping that people will forget.
    9 Sep 2010, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Let's see now. That's only 38% not reporting. What was the saying? "Good enough for government work!" I think they just took that to the limit! The big question is: How often do they release numbers that are bound to be this far off? Unfortunately, my fear is that is happens way too often.
    9 Sep 2010, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Well, it was ALMOST a fantastic day for REE's. We were running well ahead right up until the final moments, when some large sales trimmed gains. Volumes for (GWMGF.PK) were more than triple the norm, and all the REE stocks had unusually high volume, particularly late today.

     

    (GWMGF.PK) briefly hit $.32 late this afternoon, a recent high water mark, before the large volume late sales ran it back down to $.30.

     

    (LYSCF.PK) had a good day, and was up about 4% before late selling pressure left it with a .88% gain.

     

    (MCP) continued to show strength, and ended the day up 5.25% despite the same late selling that hit Lynas and Great Western. It is now $10 over its IPO price, and climbing.

     

    (GDLNF.PK) was up 12.90% on the day, and I will be taking more profits should it repeat the performance tomorrow. Another week or two and I will be playing this speculative stock with 100% house money...

     

    My silver and gold stocks had mixed results today, but overall were up slightly. (SLW) in particular dragged down the sector, down 3.17%. I have been expecting someting of the sort, since silver has been showing strength vs gold recently, and because it has hit resistance at the pscyhological $20 level.

     

    My oil and gas stocks (royalty trusts all) had a moderate up day, matching the overall market gain.

     

    (NATUF.PK) had a big move up, with a 20.39% gain. Tungsten rules (at least today).

     

    (PAL) has been climbing steadily, up another 3.12% today. The "other" precious metal is doing well lately.
    9 Sep 2010, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    LOL, crazy headlines today...

     

    "Average Mortgage Rate Climbs to 4.35%"

     

    (My first home purchase during Carter was 15.5%. Now 4.35% is "high"??)

     

    "950,000 First Time Homebuyers Must Repay Tax Credit"

     

    (That's more than half of the 1.8million who bought houses under that program)

     

    "1326 Dead Persons Apply For Homebuyers Tax Credit"

     

    (Huh? Well, I guess its no worse than them voting, eh?)

     

    "IRS Denies 528 Claims Made By Dead Persons"

     

    (Huh??? That means that we gave millions of dollars in tax credits for 798 dead people - who the IRS KNOWS are dead - to buy their first home. Now, THAT is special!)
    9 Sep 2010, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7888) | Send Message
     
    Its perfect! The IRS can never come after you to get the credit back. I want to pull that off when I am dead. Then I can tell them to come meet me in Hell to get thier money. Of course I am only hoping to send them there and (small voice) hoping I am somewhere else.
    9 Sep 2010, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DG - Just leave them a note. They'll follow the trail into the depth of Hell to get someone's money. Don't get me wrong. I know that those IRS employees are probably good folks off the job and all. I even heard that they sometimes go to church...too bad the financial secretaries sometimes forget to file the annual non profit extension paperwork. And off they go to audit the church.
    9 Sep 2010, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    "1326 Dead Persons Apply For Homebuyers Tax Credit"

     

    "IRS Denies 528 Claims Made By Dead Persons"

     

    I don't blame the dead filers - they're probably just trying to get some of their estate tax money back. I mean, they pay all their lives and then they pay when they die?! If there's any justice in this world, the IRS wouldn't deny those 528.

     

    Heartless I tell you! Absolutely heartless! After all, they're dead - can't we show a little compassion here?!

     

    OTOH, having just been through a full audit (successfully navigated in spite of them), I heartily invite the blood-sucking vampires to pursue those cadavers with full vigor, following the trail wherever it leads.

     

    "... and the world will be a better place, and the world will be a better place, for you and me, ..."

     

    HardToLove
    9 Sep 2010, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
     
    When a dead person buys a home, isn't it called a crypt?
    9 Sep 2010, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Hilarious!

     

    "Who you gonna call...Ghostbusters!"
    9 Sep 2010, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Further, TB, wasn't their some oddball unemployment number released that did not include several states, including California?

     

    What's going on?
    9 Sep 2010, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    19 states - estimatd? Due to vacations or somesuch?

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Clue: one of them was California. Guess the revisions direction and win the office pool.
    9 Sep 2010, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    And the person who inscribes the flowery prose on the crypt is a ...

     

    Cryptographer?

     

    <*groan*>

     

    HardToLove
    9 Sep 2010, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    They say rats leave a sinking ship.
    news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us...;_ylt=AiSt7eAkZQDC2YVx...
    9 Sep 2010, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    Except he's not just bailing on Voldemort...he's going to run for mayor of Chicago. Talk about scary... I understand he was looking to leave because of the idealogues in V's inner circle, and the mayor thing now gives them a convenient excuse. He won't have to "spend more time with his family."
    10 Sep 2010, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4770) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please go to QC # 99:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    9 Sep 2010, 08:50 PM Reply Like
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