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Richard Shaw's  Instablog

Richard is a principal of QVM Group LLC (http://www.qvmgroup.com/QVMinvest/), a fee-based investment advisor based in Connecticut with clients across the country. He provides investment coaching to "do-it-yourself" investors, and manages portfolios for those who prefer not to make... More
  • Trend Condition of Country Funds 0 comments
    Aug 17, 2009 10:51 PM | about stocks: VT, EFA, VWO, FRN, SPY, EWC, EWG, EWU, EWQ, EWN, EWL, EWP, EWD, EWK, EWO, EWI, EWJ, EWA, EWH, EWS, FXI, IFN, EWY, EWT, EWM, THD, IF, RSX, EWZ, EWW, ECH, EZA, ISL, TUR, MES

    There were some substantial price moves today for many country and region funds.  How do they look now relative to their 200-day simple moving averages?

    The chart below shows the ratio of the price to the 200-day average, and the 100-day average to the 200-day average, for 35 country and region funds as of end-of-day August 17, 2009.

    [ image at QVM site ]

     

    The ratios are color coded: green for > 1.10, yellow for < 1.10 > 0.90, and pink for < 0.90.

    Not shown in the chart is the fact that all of the funds have some degree of upward sloping 200-day simple moving average, except for the U.S. which is flat, Italy with is flat with a hint of up, and GCC countries which are sloped down.

    Approximately 1/3 of the funds have the price above their 25-day average, while 2/3 of the funds have the price at or below their 25-day average.  Those where the price is below the 25-day average are:

    • MSCI emerging markets index
    • BNY/Mellon frontier markets index
    • Canada
    • Germany
    • Hong Kong
    • Singapore
    • China
    • India
    • South Korea
    • Taiwan
    • Thailand
    • Indonesia
    • Russia
    • Chile
    • South Africa
    • Israel.

    Securities Mentioned: VT, EFA, VWO, FRN, SPY, EWC, EWG, EWU, EWQ, EWN, EWL, EWP, EWD, EWK, EWO, EWI, EWJ, EWA, EWH, EWS, FXI, IFN, EWY, EWT, EWM, THD, IF, RSX, EWZ, EWW, ECH, EZA, ISL, TUR, MES.

    Disclosure:  We have positions in several of the mentioned funds at most times.

    Richard Shaw
    QVM Group LLC

    Stocks: VT, EFA, VWO, FRN, SPY, EWC, EWG, EWU, EWQ, EWN, EWL, EWP, EWD, EWK, EWO, EWI, EWJ, EWA, EWH, EWS, FXI, IFN, EWY, EWT, EWM, THD, IF, RSX, EWZ, EWW, ECH, EZA, ISL, TUR, MES
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