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Sir. Monaco
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  • How Can You Tell When Something Is In A State Of "Bubble" Pre-Explosion? 4 comments
    Apr 1, 2013 1:34 PM | about stocks: CHK, XOM, UNG, LNG, SPY, JPM, GS

    How can you tell when something is in a state of "bubble" pre-explosion?

    here are the numbers:

    Natural Gas

    Open contracts for Feb 2013 = 276,540

    Actually delivery for Feb 2013 = 722

    ---------------

    Open contracts for Mar 2013 = 259,321

    Actually delivery for Mar 2013 = 1,132

    ---------------

    Open contracts for Apr 2013 = 332,783

    Actually delivery for Apr 2013 = 1,123

    ---------------

    Conclusion

    Open contracts between Mar & April = +28% or +73,462

    Actual delivery between Mar & April = -9

    This is a bubble if I have ever seen one. The hedge fund community is going to hate that I am showing you all of this.

    Source: CME Daily Bulletins

    Disclosure: I am short CHK.

    Additional disclosure: Short natural gas, not CHK, but do think CHK will get hurt by a drop in natural gas.

    Themes: Natural Gas Stocks: CHK, XOM, UNG, LNG, SPY, JPM, GS
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Comments (4)
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  • chongkim74
    , contributor
    Comments (728) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm...
    2 Apr 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • rajiv ahuja
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    sir when the bubble of natural gas will brust ? As i am holding shorts at 3.6 levels.
    17 Apr 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • rajiv ahuja
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    sir is it possible that to increase the prise of natural gas the natural gas producers willingly/knowingly not increase the production . resulting low supplies increased demand hence increased price. it is just a query/doubt arose in my mind as i am not a expert. please do reply thanks.
    18 Apr 2013, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • User 10738391
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    inventory report today will give us a better indication of when nat gas will break, this was the week with the least heating, a high build is extremely bearish (what I expect), otherwise a small build is extremely bullish
    18 Apr 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
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