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  • Tantamount To A “I Told You So”, The Natural Gas Bubble Is Still Popping “Look Out Below!” 11 comments
    May 8, 2013 10:00 AM | about stocks: APC, BBG, BP, BTU, C, CHK, COG, COP, DVN, ECA, ELP, EQT, FST, GDX, GLD, GS, JPM, KWK, LNG, MS, NFX, QEP, RRC, SLV, SPY, SRE, SWN, UNG, UPL, WPX, XCO, XEC, XOM

    Tantamount to a "I Told You So", The Natural Gas Bubble Is Still Popping "Look Out Below!"

    The natural gas bubble has started popping and the beginnings of this pop should send shivers down any natural gas traders back. The recent drop is set to continue further as regardless of this weeks EIA report, the injections coming are currently set up for four weeks of 100+ injections. This coupled with the EIA recent reporting that this years total injections will be 1% greater than last year's will most likely cause the gas markets to plummet and we calculate a 25% chance of seeing sub-$3 dollars over the next 45 days. Other charts calcs show a 53% chance of prices being between $3.00 and $3.40, while there is a 75% percent chance that we hit below $3.65 in the next two-three weeks.

    Massive exodus of the natural gas sector is being caused by the excessive speculators creating all the hallmarks of the bubble and with record injections now coming, they are being yanked the other direction with self-inflictions and vividly this market is on toothpicks holding up a concrete foundation. The weight of the situation will take hold and the coming weeks sell-offs could be massive. It wouldn't be surprising if we see a $0.50 single day sell-off on bearish news. More news to come…

    ###

    Disclosure: I am short UNG.

    Additional disclosure: short natural gas

    Themes: Natural Gas Stocks: APC, BBG, BP, BTU, C, CHK, COG, COP, DVN, ECA, ELP, EQT, FST, GDX, GLD, GS, JPM, KWK, LNG, MS, NFX, QEP, RRC, SLV, SPY, SRE, SWN, UNG, UPL, WPX, XCO, XEC, XOM
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Comments (11)
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  • Nice Sir Monaco.

     

    $3.25 is a big possibility now that demand is really low and supply is higher than 2011, 2012....

     

    I see fair value being $3.50, but the market would like to punish speculators. and thus it would travel down to $3.25.

     

    Do you still think there's gonna be 150 injections?
    What about GS call?
    11 May 2013, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » don't know if we will see a 150 injection, but we'll definitely see some injections ranging 100-119...

     

    if I was them, I would deploy a wide re-statement on a number of different commodities and quietly insert the natural gas revision/correction lower that way,

     

    they could also push out their timeline, and give a more shot-term indication (which somewhat mirrors our positions), .....it would be an easy way to save-face, and avoid any x y z now and later, etc....
    12 May 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • You think a price decline to around 3.90 - 4.00 is the bubble bursting? I don't think so and your prediction of 3.30 and lower by this time hasn't come to pass. Please stop misleading others by making false predictions Sir! You really believe GS and other big players are shivering because of a modest price decline to 3.90 - 4.00?? LOL Sorry, but I think GS plays both sides of the market well before you ever get wind of it.
    16 May 2013, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » gosh GJN you are either really protective over your firm who you were sent here to protect or just thick,

     

    I didn't say the latest price decline was the bubble bursting, as the recent down is just the beginning of a larger bubble bursting,

     

    look down below, - and I'm not misleading anybody. If anything it is the GS people who have mislead the investor community as billions have been lost by longs by just listening to them as the price has dropped, and more will be lost as it will continue to drop,

     

    just look at JPM's latest call on CHK, they know what's really going on, and they are not hypeing the natural gas situation but looking at real facts,

     

    demand is falling at a rapid clip, supplies are building, and the price will fall more,

     

    I would be more worried about the flack your GS commodity department is going to get over this screw-up just like it got from last years blunder call on natural gas,

     

    good luck in those meetings, hope you keep your job,

     

    there is a major fallout over this latest blunder and what would be best is a redaction of trying to call natural gas a "safe haven" which is a desperate attempt to control the situation,

     

    the market always wins, and the market says natural gas is falling and going to fall more,
    17 May 2013, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • "the market always wins, and the market says natural gas is falling and going to fall more" Ohhhhhhh really??? Looks like you're wrong again and I ask you again: When are you going to apologize for the grossly misleading price projections you have given and continue to give? According to your previous articles, we are supposed to be at 3.30 or lower by this time. So many misleading price projections Sir.
    21 May 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • GJN, looks like the apologize must be the other way around. Sir Monaco will be right, 3.30 $/MMBtu soon will be tested. He knows the market.
    30 May 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • LOL - - You really believe that? Sir Monaco's price call for 3.30 and lower by this time in May hasn't materialized and he hasn't apologized for misleading people. You want to give it more time? How much longer time do you want? You guys are unreal and must be working together.
    30 May 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • OK LOL, GJN lets give 5 weeks now, building storage above 90 and will be tecnically testing 3.30 for a moment, if so you will have to appologize as fear gentlemen (Come on nobody knows the exact day but GS if manipulate the market). If between 3.65 and 4 is a tie. Otherwise above 4 you are the guru about demand and suply.

     

    Is that fear enough.??
    31 May 2013, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • Truth is Sir Monaco made some price predictions for May 2013 that did not occur and he should apologize to everyone for doing so. There is no tie as the price of NG proves that he was plainly wrong. I do not make such foolish predictions and prefer to comment only on the current status as reflected in the current price and chart. Currently, 3.90 remains a very strong support area for NG and must be broken before anyone can say further price declines are ahead. That being said, even if 3.90 is broken within the next 5 weeks - no one should presume to predict what the NG price will be at the end of 5 weeks.
    2 Jun 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • i think this pull back is short, should see above $4 again.
    1 Jun 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • We should be gratefull that someone does predictions with deep market sense otherwise is not fun. I hate people that writes YES but NO. To me the fundamental knowledge of Sir monaco is very appretiate by this reader and declines are ahead on June for NG, under 3.90 $/MMBTU.
    3 Jun 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
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