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Redrut
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I am a hedge fund analyst who has also worked on the sell side and within a derivatives house. I enjoy looking into the finer details of companies and put a little less weight on technicals. ...and no, the picture isn't me but a notable politician, and yes Mr. Samaras has been replaced! I am... More
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  • RedRut Performance 3 2 comments
    Mar 24, 2014 10:21 AM | about stocks: HLF, PNDZF, POT, BBRY

    Hello all. My writing has been scant this past few weeks, purely because work has taken over the entirety of my time and I'm simply not covering stocks that the US have any interest in. This may all change soon as I am looking into Fish farmer Norwegian Harvest( [[MHG]]), no view as of yet!

    My stock ideas have mainly been on the back of significant newself, but these opportunities have had such a skewed risk/reward that I was comfotable issuing these recommendations without the need for additional analysis. Of course if I was a longer term holder, I would always (and highly recommend) long winded work and analysis, but these trades were simply trades.

    Anyways

    1) Blackberry [[BBRY]]. As oer my last article I stated that on November 5th, I gave a HOLD recommendation, on December 23rd, I issued a BUY recommendation at roughly $7.10. The stock performed well initially and I held the position until March 10th were I advised selling. Making 41% in such a short space of time has to be taken when it occurs. Although I do think Chen has definitely put Blackberry on the right track, you must maintain that the road is uncertain even for the management team. When you invest you are looking for a story where the ordds are stacked in your favour. No one can assess outcome to 100% and those who constantly suggest that BBRY is a 100% cert for recovery are clearly deluded. Chen himself has stated profitability appears most likely in 2016 and trust me, the market will give you another opportunity to get into BBRY after kitchen sinking has been completed.

    Followed my adivce? You made 41%. Interesingly, the stock is down 8% from when I closed the position.

    2) Pandora (OTCPK:PNDZF). Yes the jewellery company, not the cruddy radio station. The stock wobbled during the Thai protests as their production is located here. Despite the protests going on far afield of the factory and the factory itself reporting 100% operations every day. Take a step back and look at the business. 6.5% cash flow yield, EV/EBITDA of 10.6x (cheapp for the luxury sector) and plenty of further profitability from Asia and online sales (not too mention the end of the share overhang).

    Followed my adivce? You made 14%

    3) Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) A complete no brainer. The big short catalyst everyone was worried about appeared. A FTC investigation thought to take more than a year. Uncertainty = risk = higher required return on capital = lower share price. Longs were afraid of this for years and said it wouldn't happen. When it did happen longs said they knew it was going to happen and it would absolve the company. A year is a long time and shorting this sucker was simple and straightforward. I suggested a short on March the 12th and closed it on the 21st

    Followed my adivce? You made 15% (in one week)

    Even though I didn't publically give these trades out, I did recommend them to a reader and to be frank, they haven't been the best trades. In the interests of transparency, I list them here

    4) RM2 Pallets (RM2 LN) An innovative pallet solution backed by the golden man of retail Rose and the Ex Diageo man MR. Walsh. To top it off, insiders have been size buyers even during share price weakness. I recommened to enter this stock at 84p (the IPO was 88p) and the stock now languished at 73.20. The lessons I learnt here was that 400m GBP is too much to pay for a company with no order book and if the company has financed itself by selling shares privately to small holders, stay well away (they are the first to sell and have already made 5x their money)

    Followed my adivce? You lost 14%

    5) Heidelberg Drucksmachinen (HDD GY) I still stand behind this trade and see upside all the way to EUR3.10 (currently 2.26). The company is the leading manufacturer of commercial printing equipment and the new management has done wonders to steady this loss-making behemoth. Paradigm shifts push against the company as less printers are required in a world with the medium of internet but packaging will never die. The company has nearly 50% installed base worldwide and is soon (IMHO) to announce a landmark deal divesting their loss-making business to a Chinese company and perhaps allowing this Chinese company to use their sales network and brand. In essence, this is very similar to the Blackberry/Foxconn tie up. We make your lossmaking machine profitable and you sell them for us.

    To be clear, the company are public that they are in talks with an Asian buyer for some post press (cutting, folding, stitching) equipment but the rest is speculation on my part.

    Followed my adivce? A mixed bag, I was a buyer when it was 2.20. The stock rallied to 3.10 before coming back down to earth. Happy holder, this is a great story

    So that's the story so far, and here are my previous recommendations...

    Followed me on...

    ...Potash corp, you made 16.2% (YES!)

    ...Nokia, you made 37% (YES!!!)

    ...K+S you made 23% (YES!!!)

    ...Dialog you made 30.5% (YES!!!)

    ...Infineon, you made 17% (YES!!!)

    ...Tesla, you made 3.5% (NO!!!)

    ...Potash Corp, you lost 0.5% (HELD ANYWAY)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: I am long Heidelberg Druck

    Themes: Performance Stocks: HLF, PNDZF, POT, BBRY
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Comments (2)
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  • jamesingram32
    , contributor
    Comments (632) | Send Message
     
    thanks RED, keep posting...you bring a unique perspective to the board....
    24 Mar, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • johncworth
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    Always respect a writer who is accountable for their wins AND losses. Nicely done.
    24 Mar, 02:27 PM Reply Like
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