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Will the iPad add 0.2% at an annualized rate to US personal consumption in Q2?

|Includes:Apple Inc. (AAPL)

This analysis makes some pretty bold assumptions but go with me:

Apple sold 1 million ipads in the first month of sales. Assume that sales rate continues for the next 2 months (graduation gifts, 3G version, still hard to obtain), that makes 3 million in calendar Q2. Assume average revenue per ipad is $700 ($500 base price plus extra memory, 3G upgrade, accessories, itunes music/video/apps, ATT data plan). Total US sales likely exceed $2B in Q2. GDP per quarter is $3.6 trillion. Therefore, ipad sales could represent an additional 0.05% increment in personal consumption  (0.2% at the annualized headline rate). Of course, the impact of this increment in PCE on GDP will be offset by the import cost of ipads. The cost of production overseas probably 50% of the retail price, which would reduce the impact on GDP. Also, money spent on ipad sales may be taken from money consumers would have spent on other things (though anecdotally that does not seem to be happening). And, on the other hand, overseas sales of the ipad in Q2 will improve Apple's corporate income. 

So (if my math is right!) the introduction of the ipad on April 3 has the potential to incrementally increase US GDP in Q2 by 0.2% at an annualized rate. 


Disclosure: Long AAPL

Stocks: AAPL